Florida and California had the highest number of at-risk counties in ATTOM’s Q1 2026 analysis; Tennessee had the most low-risk counties
ATTOM, the leading provider of property data, AI-powered intelligence, and real estate analytics solutions, released its latest Housing Risk Report spotlighting county-level housing markets around the United States that were more or less vulnerable to declines, based on home affordability, equity and other measures in the first quarter of 2026.
Of the 50 riskiest counties, 12 were in Florida, nine in California, and five each in Illinois and New Jersey, according to ATTOM’s analysis.
The overall riskiest markets in ATTOM’s analysis were Charlotte County, FL; Butte County, CA; Charles County, MD; Shasta County, CA; and Cumberland County, NJ.
While affordability remains a nationwide challenge, these riskiest markets were characterized by particularly high rates of unemployment and some of the worst foreclosure rates compared to the other counties included in the analysis.
“While home prices have eased slightly from last summer’s record highs, affordability remains a challenge in much of the country,” said Rob Barber, CEO of ATTOM. “The greatest risk remains in counties where unemployment rates are above 5 percent and homes are being foreclosed at greater rates.”
Counties were considered more or less at risk based on the percentage of homes facing possible foreclosure, the portion with seriously underwater mortgages, the percentage of average local wages required to pay for major home ownership expenses on median-priced single-family homes, and local unemployment rates.
The conclusions were drawn from an analysis of the most recent home affordability, equity and foreclosure reports prepared by ATTOM. Unemployment rates came from federal government data. Rankings were based on a combination of those four categories in 580 counties around the United States, with sufficient data to analyze in the first quarter of 2026. Counties were ranked in each category, from lowest to highest, with the overall conclusion based on a combination of the four ranks.
Tennessee boasts some of the safest markets
Among the 50 least risky counties in ATTOM’s analysis, nine were in Tennessee, five each were in Virginia and Wisconsin, and four were in Michigan.
The least risky counties were Chittenden County, VT; Rutherford County, TN; Arlington County, VA; Tippecanoe County, Indiana, and Cumberland County, ME.
These counties were not notably more affordable than others, but they benefited from some of the lowest unemployment and best foreclosure rates in the country, along with low shares of underwater mortgages.
California counties top lists of least affordable, highest unemployment
In the first quarter of 2026, the national median home sales price was $360,000, which would have consumed 30.3 percent of the typical American worker’s annual wages for major monthly purchase expenses.
The least affordable counties in ATTOM’s analysis were Kings County, NY (purchase expenses for a median priced home would consumed 108.6 percent of the typical resident’s wages); Santa Cruz County, CA (97.1 percent); Marin County, CA (91.1 percent); San Luis Obispo County, CA (89.7 percent); and Orange County, CA (88.1 percent).
Nationwide, 3.2 percent of homes were considered seriously underwater, meaning the combined estimated balances of loans secured by the properties were at least 25 percent higher than the properties’ estimated market values.
The counties with the highest rates of seriously underwater homes were all in Louisiana: Ouachita Parish (17.4 percent); Calcasieu Parish (17.1 percent), Tangipahoa Parish (15 percent), Ascension Parish (14.5 percent), and Rapides Parish (13.2 percent).
One out of every 1,211 homes nationwide were in the process of foreclosure in the first quarter of 2026.
The counties with the highest rates of foreclosure in ATTOM’s analysis were Liberty County, TX (one in every 55 homes in the process of foreclosure); Baltimore City, MD (one in every 294 homes); Dorchester County, SC (one in every 352 homes); Kaufman County, TX (one in every 361 homes); and Pueblo County, CO (one in every 368 homes).
The national unemployment rate was 4.4 percent in February, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Among the 580 counties in ATTOM’s analysis, the highest unemployment rates were in Imperial County, CA (17.6 percent); Yuma County, AZ (11.7 percent); Tulare County, CA (11.5 percent); Merced County, CA (10.9 percent); and Monterey County, CA (10.8 percent).
Conclusion
ATTOM’s first quarter 2026 Housing Impact Report shows that unemployment and foreclosure rates drove housing market risk, particularly in select Florida and California counties while affordability remained a lingering challenge nationwide.
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