REI INK

Market Predictions for 2023

While Not Rosy, Still Fair Share of Opportunities Ahead By Erica LaCentra As we head into the fourth quarter of 2022, predictions for what the real estate and housing market will look like in the coming year are pouring in. As mortgage rates continue to rise due to interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve as a means of combating inflation, the general consensus across the industry is that we must deal with the reality that the housing market is in decline and will likely get worse in 2023 before it gets better. Does this mean we are in for a housing market crash similar to what the industry experienced in 2006? That seems like a very unlikely reality, and thankfully, a dramatic price crash and subsequent financial crisis do not appear to be in the cards. However, the changes that we are likely to see in the market will be substantial for both homebuyers and investors alike. So, let’s dig into the major predictions for the housing market for 2023, and ultimately how to prepare for any fallout they may cause. The Future of Home Prices Two of the biggest ongoing. questions on anyone in real estate’s mind are will home prices finally go down in 2023, and if so, by how much? Since the pandemic, home prices skyrocketed due to housing supply shortages and historically low-interest rates with many outlets quoting that home prices are up 40% since just March of 2020. Even as we approached the halfway point of 2022, home price growth had not shown much sign of slowing down. According to the CoreLogic Home Price Index, “national home prices increased 18.3% in June 2022 compared to a year ago. This growth followed the highest 12-month increase in the U.S. index since the series began in 1976 when April saw prices jump 20.3%.” It does look like prices are finally starting to cool down and that is predicted to continue into 2023. And it will be at a very slow pace. According to forecasts by Fannie Mae, it will not be until “the end of 2023 when home inflation returns to the 5% pace seen before the pandemic.” And even then, it seems like the baseline for U.S. home prices which we have seen set over the last few years, are likely here to stay. Fannie Mae is further forecasting that the median price of a previously owned home will surpass $400k by the end of 2023 and the median price of a new home will end at a record high of $464k by the end of the year, about $100k more than where the price of a new home sat in 2021. All of this calls into question issues of affordability for homeowners, which has been an ongoing problem since the pandemic hit. Those individuals that have been waiting for the right time to buy a home will likely be in for a mixed bag in 2023, with a better opportunity to find a property, as long as they have the means to afford it. Predictions for Housing Supply Another major topic on everyone’s mind as we look towards 2023, is will housing supply potentially start to improve with the market cooling. With home prices not likely to drop significantly in the near future and interest rates rising, many are hoping that this will finally provide a window for more inventory to potentially come on the market, or at least allow inventory to stay on the market for slightly longer to allow buyers a better opportunity as buyer demand remains strong. While there is the expectation that more inventory will be coming onto the market, there is the concern that homeowners will be less likely to list their homes for the remainder of 2022 into the new year, and we are already starting to see those concerns come to fruition. According to one of Redfin’s latest reports, “new listings of homes for sale were down 20% from a year earlier, the largest decline since May 2020.” So, the flood of inventory that homebuyers have been hoping for is still not likely, and any inventory that does come on the market is still not nearly enough to be able to put a dent in the supply issues that have been long-standing in the real estate market. Another area of concern when it comes to supply is the low level of housing starts in the U.S. that is not showing significant signs of improvement. Ongoing issues with material costs and labor have negatively affected this area of the market throughout the pandemic and this trend looks like it will potentially continue into 2023. Even with the construction sector experiencing an unexpected jump in August for both single-family and multifamily starts, with single-family starts growing 3.4% month-over-month and multifamily starts growing 28% month-over-month, housing starts overall are still struggling to meet demand. The single-family space specifically continues to be an area of concern when it comes to supply versus demand with weak builder sentiment and a 15.3% year-over-year decline in permits that a small jump cannot even hope to make a dent in. Unfortunately, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development “total building permits fell by 10% in August with single-family permits down 3.5% and multifamily dropping by 17.9%.” So, while the increase in starts in August was nice to see compared to the sad streak of declines earlier in the year, the drop in permitting likely spells trouble on the horizon as it is a clear indicator that builders are likely slowing down potentially as they see the housing market starting to slow overall. This spells trouble for inventory levels going into the new year as new construction is crucial to meet future market demand. A Seller’s Market or a Buyer’s Market Based on the predictions we are seeing around home prices and housing supply levels, the final question many in the industry are asking is, will

Read More

Investing in the American Dream

Residential Capital Partners (ResCap) Champions the Individual Investor By Carole VanSickle Ellis The founders of Residential Capital Partners (ResCap) knew a lot about real estate before they started working together and founded ResCap in 2009 in the midst of the U.S. housing crash and subsequent global financial meltdown. Each of the four founders, Paul Jackson, president and CEO of the company, Richard Morgan, chief investment officer at ResCap, and Greg England and Rob Feito, both directors at the private lending firm, have years of personal experience in real estate investing and a deep appreciation for the creativity and drive of the individual real estate investor. However, they initially planned to put their cumulative knowledge to use in a very different fashion by buying bulk packages of distressed mortgages rather than by specializing in making loans on single-family residential properties to individual investors. The tipping point occurred when the four principals realized many investors would not make it through the crash without a credit solution that was very hard to come by at that time. “In 2009, every investor out there was trying to figure out if they were going to have to reinvent themselves and their business or if they would be able to ride out the storm,” Jackson recalled. “The four of us had originally intended to function as a distressed-mortgage purchaser, but we pivoted in response to what we learned through our due diligence. The single-family rental investor was having a hard time finding credit in the market due to the global financial meltdown. With so many banks and other lenders sitting on the sidelines, we decided to tailor a credit solution for single-family residential investors.” The result of that about-face was Residential Capital Partners, usually shortened to ResCap, named to make the company’s mission crystal clear. “We saw a void of credit in the single-family rental investment space and decided to try to fill it,” Jackson explained. “Then, we all survived together. That resilience is one of the things we are most proud of: entering during the global financial crisis, being active during turbulent times, staying in business and staying open during the COVID-19 crisis, and building such important relationships over the last 12 years.” Morgan agreed. “We had all been actively involved in real estate before coming together as a firm, so we knew that single-family assets through four-unit assets would be a good fit for us with this enterprise. We have certainly been successful and enjoyed it — and our borrowers have been successful, too.” Everyone at ResCap enjoys the firm’s success stories most of all, naturally, but they do not define “success” by their own bottom line. Instead, they like to define it as helping investors stay in business when times get tough. Jackson told the story of a client in Chicago who had been funded primarily by a family office prior to the housing crash in the mid-2000s. Then, Jackson said, “his lender basically evaporated on him” due to the global financial crisis. By the time that investor found ResCap, he was in full panic mode. “He thought he was going to lose the business he had worked decades to build,” Jackson said. “We were able to work with him on the scale at which he was already operating. Instead of losing everything, he is still going strong.” Working in Partnership with Investors for Long-Term Success When a potential client comes to ResCap, they are immediately more than simply numbers on a page; they are the sum of a complicated, insightful blend of factors that ResCap uses to determine the viability of a loan and how much the firm will lend. In some cases, borrowers may be offered up to 100% financing for short-term rehab projects or for rental bridge loans, and ResCap also may fund up to 75% of the after-repair value (ARV). In addition to short-term bridge loans and fix-and-flip lending, the company also has adopted long-term financing catering to single-family rental investors. ResCap can adjust and adapt to its clients’ needs in large part because it is a balance-sheet lender and does not rely on a third party to purchase loans once they are made. “We assume the full risk of every loan we write and carry it on our books until it is paid off,” said Morgan. “Our success depends entirely on the success of our borrowers, so we make it a point to make solid decisions based on years and years of experience in real estate as well as more ‘traditional’ considerations.” “We are more than 100 years deep in experience on our bench of partners,” Jackson added. “We want our borrowers to have that kind of successful, long-term experience as well.” Once the borrower contacts ResCap about a loan, the team swings into action, learning more about the deal itself and, in addition, the strength of the borrower. Deals that are too “thin,” meaning the time and money invested will not likely create positive returns when the property sells, generally do not pass the ResCap test because, as Jackson puts it, “We want to do business with you, but some deals are just not rich enough for you to spend your time and energy trying to make money on them.” Morgan added, “It is really about making just one loan at a time. We have built a fantastic portfolio of loans one loan at a time, and we are committed to coming in every day, mastering the basics, and being really good at what we do so our borrowers can be really good at what they do.” The team also keeps a watch out for investors who are spread too thin. “From our perspective, the customer is part of the team,” Jackson explained. “Our number-one goal is to take care of them so that they can achieve their goals and the success they want in this space.” In today’s market, ResCap places an especially high priority on monitoring borrowers’ liquidity. That, Jackson said, is part of

Read More

WHY Fix-and-Flip Investments?

Bottom Line: Profits Will Be Easier to Claim By Dalton Elliott One of the biggest surprise movie hits of the year has been “Everything EverywhereAll at Once.” That phrase does not just make a compelling movie title, but it describes how the economy and housing market is changing now. What’s changed? Interest rates. Rent rates. Available inventory. Customer demand. Home price appreciation. And more. A lot more. So, what has changed? Basically, it’s everything, everywhere, all at once. We are in the midst of a radically different housing market than we saw just 9-12 months ago. But that does not mean that real estate investors should panic. Opportunities still abound in the markets as it stands today. These opportunities are just different than they have been the past two years, and savvy investors will adjust their strategies to ensure profits amidst the change. From mid-2020 through 2021 to the first quarter of 2022, investors experienced a market almost perfectly designed for rental portfolio accumulation. Interest rates were at all-time lows and customer demand shifted from apartment living in high-density areas toward single-family living in suburban areas. So, it is no wonder that real estate investors—from mom-and-pop types to Wall Street investment firms—tried to pile up as many properties as they could through purchases as well as build-to-rent developments. But starting with the Fed’s move on interest rates in March 2022, the real estate market started moving quickly. Now that we are six months or so past that initial interest rate shock, there is more clarity about how these changes are shaking out. Here are three takeaways that show why pivoting to a fix-and-flip investment focus can help investors succeed in today’s market. 1. Increasing Interest Rates Will Soon Outpace Rental Rate Growth We do not yet know when the Fed will decide enough is enough with interest rates, but it is clear that it will be a while before the Fed cuts rates. This means that building rental portfolios will be more expensive. Continuing to build portfolios has been sustainable for investors so far in 2022 because rent rates have also grown (as stats from John Burns and Zumper indicate). But we are now seeing rents start to peak in some major markets, which means future interest rate hikes will make cash-flow margins much tighter for SFR landlords. Investors who have portfolio financing locked in at low rates will see profits continue to flow. However, in the short term, it is going to be much more difficult to leverage equity in a portfolio to buy more properties that will cash flow. Consequently, investors need to be rock-solid on their numbers and have a trusted financing partner if they want to add rental properties with confidence. One option to mention is bridge financing. Interest-only short-term loans can allow investors to purchase properties quickly while pushing off long-term rate locks for a year or two. In an increasing rate environment, this is one way to add to rental portfolios while maintaining cash flow in the moment. 2. Demand Still Outpaces Inventory The current housing market still features a significant inventory shortage, which means that demand outpaces supply. Median days on market (measured by St. Louis FRED) still lies at about a month and a half, well below the pre-COVID norms of 70-80 days. This inventory gap is one reason behind the significant increase in home prices over the past two years (17.7% YOY appreciation two years running, as measured by the FHFA). While prices have peaked in most markets, demand still exists for homes and rentals. Real estate investors can be confident that demand is there for properties they put up for sale. While investors may not get the market max prices that early 2022 boasted, they will still be able to recoup cash far above home values even two years ago. Investors can complete fix-and-flips or new builds with confidence, knowing that properties are not likely to sit on the market unsold for a long period of time. 3. Distressed Investment Properties Should (Slowly) Become Easier to Find While inventory is tight, some of the artificial constructs that have kept properties from becoming distressed are disappearing. Eviction and foreclosure moratoria instituted during COVID have now expired just about everywhere. And with interest rates rising, some homeowners who are in adjustable-rate mortgages may find it hard to find long-term financing that fits their budgets. As a result, more distressed properties should be available for real estate investors looking to do fix-and- flip projects. This may look different than it has in the past. The massive HPA of the past two years means that most homeowners, even those who desperately need to sell, have enough equity in their properties to avoid foreclosure. But investors should be able to find motivated sellers willing to take cash offers for quick turnarounds—leaving room for profit after property upgrades. The Bottom Line: Fix-and-Flip Profits Will Be Easier to Claim in This Market These three takeaways indicate why many investors will pivot toward fix-and-flip projects in this housing market.  » Fix-and-flip-eligible properties should be easier to find than they have been the past two years  » Sale values for these properties remain stable and secure  » Interest-only bridge financing makes it easier to profit on a short-term project leading to sale than on a long-term hold dependent on cash flow By learning from these takeaways, investors can design a real estate investment strategy that works in today’s market while making the most of their personal experience and skills. As you design that strategy, consider joining many other real estate investors who have shifted their focus to fix-and-flips to profit in the real estate market that has changed so dramatically in the past few months.

Read More

An Introduction to Non-QM Programs

Why it is a Great Alternative for Borrowers By Jennifer McGuinness In the current and ever-changing market environment, it is important to understand the different financing options available to borrowers. Non-QM Programs offer a wide range of flexibility and underwriting criteria. These loans are available for the financing of primary residences, second homes and investment properties, but many do not know what non-QM means or how to get started. What is a Non-Qualified Mortgage (“Non-QM”) A non-QM mortgage loan is a home loan that is not required to meet the requirements outlined by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). In January 2014, the CFPB issued a set of guidelines to provide “safer and more stable” home loans for consumers called Qualified Mortgages. Qualified Mortgages are a “new” mortgage classification. Commencing in 2014, the concept was created to make it more likely that a borrower would be able to pay back the loan. Lenders need to assess the borrower’s ability to repay and borrowers need to meet a strict set of criteria. If borrowers do not meet those criteria, they will not be approved for a qualified mortgage. In these situations, a borrower may be offered a non-qualified mortgage. A non-QM loan does not conform to the consumer protection provisions of the Dodd-Frank Act but that does not mean that they are bad for the consumer. Applicants whose incomes vary from month to month or those with other unique circumstances may qualify for these types of mortgages. For example, if you have a debt-to-income ratio of more than 43%, a lender may not offer you a qualified mortgage. Or, if you have dynamically changing income and do not meet the income verification requirements set out in Dodd-Frank and required of most lenders, you may not be offered a qualified mortgage. A lender may instead offer the borrower a non-qualified mortgage. If a lender offers a non-qualified mortgage, it does not mean the lender is not required to do any verification or assessment of your ability to repay the loan. It generally means that you do not meet the specific criteria needed for a qualified mortgage. Interest rates on loans will vary from lender to lender, but you may find that a non-qualified mortgage will have a higher interest rate. The Loan Differences While there are differences in how a Borrower qualifies for a qualified mortgage vs. a non-qualified mortgage, there are also differences in the loans themselves. Here are some of the ways the loans differ. Dodd-Frank offered lenders issuing QM mortgages protection from certain legal challenges in foreclosure proceedings and other litigation. With a QM mortgage, lenders generally have shown that they have confirmed that the borrower had the ability to repay the loan, which provides the lender with certain legal protection from lawsuits that claim they did not verify a borrower’s ability to repay. However, if a borrower does not feel that the lender made sure they had the ability to repay, they can still challenge the lender in court. Additionally, only QM mortgages can be insured, guaranteed or backed by FHA, VA, Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, so they are generally considered  “safer” for investors who buy mortgage-backed investments. BUT IS THIS TRUE? The non-QM share of total mortgage counts declined during the COVID pandemic and reached its lowest level in 2020, at 2% of the market. However, the non-QM share of the market has since almost doubled in 2022, representing about 4% of the first mortgage market (data is as of the first three months of 2022). Though the non-QM loan is a small piece of today’s mortgage market, it plays a key role in meeting the credit needs for borrowers not able to obtain financing through Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or other government channels. Creditworthy borrowers such as self-employed borrowers, first-time homebuyers, borrowers with substantial assets but limited income, jumbo loan borrowers and investors may benefit from non-QM loan options. The three main reasons why non-QM loans originated in 2022 did not fit in the QM requirements are the use of limited or alternative documentation, a DTI above 43% and interest-only loans. Almost 55% of the non-QM borrowers used limited or alternative documentation, 26% exceeded the 43% DTI threshold and 23% of the non-QM mortgage loans originated were interest-only loans. Today’s non-QM loans are still high-quality loans. They are very different and less risky than the equivalent of non-QM loans originated prior to the housing crisis. The average credit score of homebuyers with a non-QM mortgage loan in 2022 was 771 compared to 776 for homebuyers with QM loans and 714 for government loans (data is as of the first three months of 2022). Similarly, the average Loan to Value Ratio (“LTV”) for borrowers with non-QM mortgages was 76%, compared to 77% for borrowers with QM mortgage loans. Finally, the average DTI for homebuyers with non-QM loans was 37% versus 33% for QM and 40% for government programs. Despite the higher DTI ratios, non-QM mortgages are performing very well. Both the non-QM and QM loans have low delinquency rates. In fact, the serious delinquency rate (over 90 days delinquent) for non-QM mortgages is slightly higher than the rate for QM loans (both being less than 1%) and significantly lower than for the government loans (almost 2%). To offset the risk of default, lenders generally set a higher interest rate on non-QM loans. Additionally, lenders are generally focused on borrowers with higher credit scores and lower LTVs, as this helps to offset the possible added risk from a high DTI ratio, limited documentation and interest-only on non-QM loans. How Do Lenders Verify Income for Non-QM Loans? While non-QM loans offer flexibility for lenders to offer mortgages to people who do not fit the criteria of QM loans, lenders still need to verify the information provided and document anything that supports the borrower’s ability to repay. That includes income sources, assets, or anything else that gives them assurances the borrower will be able to repay the loan.

Read More

The Ultimate Alternative Investment

Diversify Your Portfolio with Real Estate Debt Investing By Meredith McGowan Unless you have been ignoring your investments and hoping for the best — which we would not recommend* — you are likely aware that the economy and stock markets have been a bit volatile of late. However, if you are looking for alternatives to traditional stock and equity investments, the aptly named alternative investments can be a great investment opportunity during an economic downturn or recession. What is an Alternative Investment? An alternative investment іѕ аny financial asset thаt іѕ nоt a traditional investment, such as ѕtосks, bonds, оr cash. Althоugh alternative investments have been around for centuries, options such as real estate, hedge funds, commodities, fine arts and antiquities, and venture capital have become more common and popular in recent years. Alternative investments typically have less protections and regulations from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and may be somewhat illiquid — not necessarily the case with real estate. Real Estate as an Alternative Investment The key benefit with an alternative investment is the potential to generate returns not correlated with the stock market, as alternative investments are often secured by a real asset like property, wine, fine art, precious metals, or farmland. For example, if the stock market is experiencing a downturn, alternative investments such as real estate may hold their value or even appreciate. This is because real estate is a tangible asset that is less susceptible to market fluctuations such as stocks and other securities. While the value of stocks and other securities may drop or gain value rapidly, real estate values tend to be more gradual. In addition, real estate can provide a source of income through rental payments, which can help offset losses in stocks or traditional investments. As a result, real estate and other alternative investments can be a smart way to diversify your portfolio, as well as protect yourself from market volatility. Historically, the average return of the stock market is about 10%. This means that if your grandfather invested $1,000 in stocks a century ago and left you the stocks in his will, the investment may be worth around $10 million today. However, if you analyze the stock market in a time frame shorter than 100 years, you are sure to see quite a bit of erratic price performance. This is why many financial advisors recommend investors leave their money in the stock market for at least five years — enough time to ride out the ups and downs. Real estate, on the other hand, generally offers higher yields in a shorter amount of time. Consider the average sale price of a house sold in the U.S. during Q1 of 2017 was $374,800, vs. $514,100 in Q1 of 2022. Real estate debt investing or crowdfunded real estate investing is a strategy that allows investors to take full advantage of this appreciation. For example, if you invested $120,000 in a rehab loan with a 10% return, you would earn $1,000 passive income per month which could be reinvested in other real estate, stocks, or to treat yourself to a new jet-ski. Real Estate Debt Investing Now, full disclosure, the author is employed by Fund That Flip, a crowdfunded real estate debt investment marketplace, residential rehab and construction lender, and SaaS platform for rehab and construction management. Real estate debt investing, or crowdfunded real estate investing is an alternative investment opportunity growing in popularity since Congress enacted the JOBS Act in 2012. Real estate debt investing involves investing in a mortgage, bridge financing or development loan that is funding a rehab, new construction, investment deal, or general real estate project. Investors essentially fund a portion of the loan for the borrower, and then earn income on the monthly interest payments. This is also known as crowdfunded investing, as usually many investors purchase a fractional share of a loan to collectively fund it. Because real estate encompasses many different types of projects (multi-unit from two to 100 doors, single-family homes, flips, new construction, commercial buildings, etc.), all over the U.S. or world, executed by numerous developers, it can be a great way to diversify your portfolio. The Pros  »         Passive income from monthly payments  »         Higher returns due to appreciation and cost of capital  »         Low minimum investments. The amount will depend on the investment platform and the protections required by the SEC, but the barrier to entry can be inexpensive. For example, Fund That Flip requires just $1,000.  »         Diversification. Real estate happens everywhere.  »         Pre-vetted by underwriters and real estate analysts. If a lender originates and underwrites its loans (like Fund That Flip), they have got skin — and risk — in the game. Their experts are trying to fund the best deals.  »         Exit strategy and fixed maturity date. Lenders want borrowers to know if they are going to sell, rent, etc., and how long it will take them to do this. This gives investors greater certainty for payment. The Cons  »         Not fully secured. Even though real estate is secured by an actual property, like all investments, there is risk involved.  »         Low minimum investments. Yes, it can also be a negative. Consider that the less you put in, the less you will get in return. Some platforms allow minimum investments as low as $10.  »         Illiquid. While real estate offers easier liquidity management, you cannot cash out early if you need or want your funds for something else.  »         Platform fees. Each investment platform has its own way of making money, including charging performance-based or usage fees. For example, Fund That Flip doesn’t charge any fees, but make sure to read the terms before you invest anywhere. Overall, alternative investments and real estate debt investing can be great ways to weather a volatile economy and conventional investments, tying your money to a physical asset that typically appreciates in value. Plus, you have to do very little besides research a platform, talk to your financial advisor*, invest your

Read More

Rent Moratorium Policies

Today’s Out-of-Control Inflation Could Have Been Avoided By Tom Olson What may have seemed like well-intentioned emergency measures taken during the first two years of the COVID-19 global pandemic are now having unintended consequences. Policies intended to help financially stressed and distressed people access housing have hurt everyone involved in the process of creating, providing, and making use of housing in the United States. These emergency measures played a major part in the drastic increase of rent prices, lit the fuse on out-of-control inflation that experts warn could derail the entire housing market, and created supply-chain bottlenecks in building materials and construction that may take years to work through. In the interim, a correction is coming. The precedents set during these “unprecedented times” have done lasting, likely permanent, damage to the way our market sectors and our economies at all levels (local to global) function. The only hope of averting additional damage is to clearly understand exactly what is happening now and why it is happening. Then, perhaps we can protect ourselves from the rampant, political targeting of real estate investors (particularly individual “mom-and-pop” landlords who have, in many cases, lost their livelihoods and retirements as a result) that has been going on for more than two years. A Dramatic Change in the “Tenant Obligation” Conversation The entire conversation around tenants’ obligation to pay rent has shifted dramatically from the traditional concepts that a legally binding contract legally requires individuals to pay predetermined amounts of rent to a more flexible landlord-tenant relationship that leaves force majeure open to a wide variety of interpretations. Not only will this have a lasting and negative effect on the overall availability of affordable rental housing, but it has done lasting damage to existing rental property owners who are unlikely to recoup losses experienced not only during the pandemic but as a result of this massive and unpredictable shift in housing policy. Sadly, although the vast majority of residents did their best to pay rent in full and on time (or at least partial rent when possible), some individuals who would not have traditionally qualified for financial assistance and mandatory forbearance programs took advantage of the system. This created a “black hole” not just for landlords but for those individuals as well; once the programs end, they are too far in debt to remediate the situation and must continue to seek outside-the-box options to extend their now-free tenancy. When this happens, properties that should, in the natural market, go vacant due to nonpayment and then be reoccupied by paying tenants are, instead, occupied by non-paying tenants who cannot be evicted for nonpayment. While the investor slogs through the process of figuring out how to evict the individual, negative emotions fester on both sides and, when the resident finally leaves, there is often serious property neglect and malicious damage to contend with. Furthermore, due to the ongoing extension of “foreclosure prevention programs” and “hardship programs,” rental owners find themselves in a position where they cannot bring in new renters or make housing available because they are no longer receiving rental income from existing properties and have no way to remediate the issue. As a result, it becomes more difficult to expand housing options in a market because it is more difficult to acquire new assets and the best strategy to generate income reliably may be to fix-and-sell these homes instead of rent in markets that previously would have been considered ideal for strategies that would allow for affordable housing providers like myself to operate in. Ultimately, as much as 10% of existing affordable housing should be considered permanently unavailable due to the difficulty of evicting non-paying, “permanent” tenants. This exacerbates problems with affordable housing supply and discourages the creation of new affordable housing. When public policy removes 10% of the potential new, affordable housing available, all tenants suffer and those best positioned to “jump the line” by offering perks to the landlord like a “bonus payment” to put them at the top of the list are the ones who snag what little housing there is available. Naturally, rents must rise even faster in units that are available to compensate for the ones that are not — otherwise, the entire housing operation goes under. How the Markets & Inflation Have Reacted to Pandemic-Justified Housing Policies The unbalanced and largely arbitrary removal of vast swathes of affordable housing stock from the open market between 2020 and 2022 has had troubling (and significantly delayed) effects on the financial markets. It seems only recently the fallout from investor uncertainty and general malaise caused by the near-total invasion of public policy into a private market has become apparent. The results speak for themselves. Ultimately, however, the parties that suffer the most will be rental owners and reliable, rent-paying tenants who now find themselves unable to afford to retain their assets, in the case of the landlords, or find affordable housing, in the case of the residents. In 2020, only about 62% of landlords were able to collect 90% or more of rents owed them, and individual landlords, naturally, experienced far greater exposure and impact than institutional owners. Much of that rental revenue will never be recovered. When these existing housing factors are combined with rampant inflation, it quickly becomes apparent that we are facing a turning point in the real estate investing sector. There is no doubt that real estate investors will continue to make creative, innovative, and, ultimately, profitable decisions for their assets. However, with ongoing supply issues and skyrocketing costs associated with acquiring, owning, and maintaining affordable rentals units, more investors are likely to steer clear of the vital sector of the market serving the population with the greatest need: affordable housing. Instead, pandemic-era housing policies are forcing the real estate investing population away from its traditional role as a problem-solver and into a position where individual investors may be vilified and maligned with impunity for simply being unable to continue past investment behaviors in current market conditions.

Read More