A Calmer Hurricane Forecast Is Not a Storm Response Strategy
by Blake Adams, SeekNow
NOAA released its 2026 Atlantic hurricane outlook on May 21, predicting a below-normal season: eight to 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes, and one to three major hurricanes, with a 55% chance of below-normal activity. That may sound like good news, but for rental operators, a calmer forecast is not the same as lower portfolio risk. It only takes one named storm crossing the wrong market to disrupt residents, damage roofs, delay turns and create weeks of operational drag.
Signal 1 // FORECASTS ARE USEFUL, BUT IMPERFECT
A 2026 analysis from Dr. Randal Olson found that from 2003 to 2025, NOAA’s May named-storm forecast range captured the actual season total 14 out of 23 times. In the nine misses, eight were underforecasts, meaning the season produced more named storms than NOAA’s upper range projected.
The risk is not that NOAA is wrong. The risk is letting a below-normal outlook create a false sense of readiness.
Signal 2 // RENTERS ARE OFTEN LESS PREPARED
FEMA’s 2024 National Preparedness Report found that only 51% of adults believed they were prepared for a disaster, even as 77% believed they were likely to be impacted by one in the coming year.
For rental portfolios, resident communication is not a courtesy. It is part of the response plan.
Signal 3 // RESPONSE SPEED PROTECTS RESIDENTS AND NOI
After a storm, slow visibility compounds quickly. A roof opening becomes interior water damage. A delayed inspection becomes a delayed claim, a delayed vendor decision, and a longer disruption.
The strongest operators are moving from seasonal awareness to a named storm response strategy: exposed markets identified, response providers ready, resident communication planned, and fast inspection, documentation, and tarping capacity in place.
A calmer forecast may reduce the odds of activity. It does not reduce the need for readiness.
