A SWOT Analysis By Erica LaCentra The real estate market is a dynamic, ever-changing industry. As we get into 2024, it is important to understand the current state of the real estate market to identify where the greatest opportunities exist. To better analyze the real estate market, it can be useful to utilize a SWOT analysis. As a tried-and-true strategic planning tool, it can provide insights into the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats that exist within the space. This information can help investors and real estate professionals better plan out their strategy for the upcoming year and help them determine where to focus their attention to be more successful in their endeavors. Strengths Although 2023 was a challenging year due to rising interest rates and overall rising costs, the outlook for 2024 is proving to be more optimistic. One of the biggest strengths that the real estate industry has going for it is there continues to be stable demand. Property listings in 2023 hit record lows which exacerbated supply problems throughout the year. This pent-up demand will extend into the coming year, and with homeowners finally accepting that mortgage rates will not be dropping any time soon, there are predictions that more homes will likely hit the market in 2024. This signals good news for homebuyers and a positive outlook for the real estate market overall. Another strength for the industry in 2024 is predicted stability regarding rates and home prices. While opinions may differ on whether the Fed will raise interest rates or cut them, there is a general consensus that whatever the Fed decides to do, it will likely not make any major increases or decreases to the federal funds rate. Because there are no predicted major fluctuations, the real estate industry can finally start to enjoy a bit of stability rather than weathering the volatility that it experienced in 2023 due to the Fed repeatedly raising rates over the year. With stable rates or minimal adjustments, there are sentiments that home prices should mostly stay steady in 2024 with the prediction of prices falling only around 1%. This bodes particularly well for the industry as we do not expect to see any major price drops which could shake up the space. Weaknesses Although overall sentiments continue to be optimistic for the upcoming year, the real estate industry still has several weaknesses that professionals should be aware of that could throw a wrench in their planning. First and foremost, affordability issues will continue to be one of the greatest weaknesses that the industry will have to face. Even with rates stabilizing, increased home prices plus higher rates still put many homebuyers in a place where homeownership is out of reach. Especially for first-time buyers, as property values have outpaced income growth and overall expenses continue to rise, there is a significant barrier to entry for this group. Even in the rental market, concerns of increasing costs such as insurance and taxes, can put a burden on landlords as expenses could potentially outpace rental income. Another weakness for the real estate industry is general economic uncertainty. Any economic volatility, such as the ongoing geopolitical tensions we are seeing, can impact investor confidence. Also, general uncertainty in current economic conditions can lead to hesitancy by individuals making any major investing or purchasing decisions which could have a large effect on the real estate industry. Opportunities For upcoming opportunities in the real estate space, professionals should focus on leaning into the strengths that have been identified. Specifically, capitalizing on the pent-up demand that has existed for well over the past year. A favorable shift has been predicted for buyers in 2024 due to small decreases in home prices paired with predictions of increases in new listings, which means there will be no shortage of individuals finally looking and hopefully able to buy a home. Also, in places where home prices have soared, there are predictions of homeowners looking to cash out on their equity to move to more affordable areas of the country. Another area of opportunity that real estate professionals can capitalize on due to lack of inventory is tapping into new construction. With demand for housing in most areas of the country, new construction in any form, whether it be building large-scale developments or scatter site developments will be one of the top solutions that professionals can lean into, and this area of the industry is predicted to have a boom in the coming year. As inventory still struggles to catch up to demand, the best suggestion would be to create your own. Threats In a space like the real estate industry, there will always be threats that professionals should be aware of and factor into any planning they are doing for the coming year. One of the biggest threats in the coming year is likely the threat of a global economic downturn. The real estate market especially can be detrimentally affected by a broader economic downturn as it affects both demand and financing in the space. As we continue to see problems with inflation and reduced consumer spending, there are concerns about a slowdown in the real estate market despite factors that seem to position the space for a most positive upcoming year. Another major threat in the real estate industry is concerns of regulatory changes. Rumblings of regulatory changes such as zoning laws, rent control discussions to ensure affordable housing, and even commission structures for agents, may create a challenging environment across the industry that could severely hinder any potential progress that could be made in the coming year. Beyond the SWOT Analysis While there are challenges and uncertainties in the real estate market for the coming year, this analysis can help provide a general framework that can be used by real estate professionals to better navigate the complexities of the space. Real estate professionals should view this tool as a way that they can leverage strengths, address weaknesses, capitalize on opportunities, and mitigate threats to
Balancing Automation & the Human Touch By Erica LaCentra Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly transforming the real estate and mortgage industries, revolutionizing tasks from routine data processing to customer service interactions. However, while AI has found its place in various facets of these spaces, its integration into marketing strategies remains relatively unexplored although, that is quickly changing. As marketers in this space as well as other industries, begin to identify more uses for AI, this raises the crucial question, where can AI seamlessly complement marketing efforts, and where is the human touch irreplaceable? The Future of Content Creation As technology and artificial intelligence become more widely accepted in organizations, there is always the concern that tech may ultimately replace the individuals currently tasked with these job functions. With the idea of utilizing AI for content creation becoming more prevalent, content marketers may resist using AI in these areas for fear that their role will become obsolete. However, the potential benefits of AI in content creation cannot be overstated. AI has the capacity to enhance content quality, boost efficiency, and enable marketers to accomplish more, faster. Artificial intelligence has the potential to shape the future of content creation. It can not only improve the quality of content and make marketers more efficient, but with the use of AI tools, marketers will simply be able to do more on the content front. For example, many notable organizations like The New York Times and Reuters have embraced using Natural Language Generation (NLG) tools, like Acrolinx, Article Forge, and QuillBot AI, which allows AI to “learn” from provided data. As these AI tools process and learn the data sets and content that is provided, these tools can generate content that mirrors human-authored text. Marketers can leverage these tools for improved program descriptions, ad copy suggestions, and data reports, streamlining their content creation processes. Marketers simply need to provide the appropriate parameters and general guidelines for what they are looking for, and AI can assist with the rest. AI in Social Media and Email Marketing Another example of where AI tools could assist with marketing is by creating more personalized content for platforms like social media and email marketing. Think of the enormous amount of time that could be saved on efforts like daily social media post creation. Tools powered by artificial intelligence can analyze customer demographics, behaviors, and sentiments about your brand from real customers and ultimately craft more targeted content and messaging that resonates with the core audience. Marketers will no longer need to pour over analytics to craft the perfect campaign. Plus, with machine learning, AI can continue to track what campaigns have been the most successful and adjust overtime to ensure your content is driving sales. Finally, in the same vein as analyzing customer behaviors for application for social media marketing and email marketing, AI can assist with developing content to help organizations meet their SEO (search engine optimization) goals. AI tools for keyword research can help provide a better understanding of what your audience is searching for that ultimately brings them to your company’s website or your competitor’s website. Tools like SEMrush facilitate effortless keyword research, helping marketers understand customer search trends and competitor rankings. Combining this data with AI tools like ChatGPT enables the creation of article topics that enhance visibility online and resonate with the target audience. Ultimately, when used properly, AI tools will allow marketers to reach their core customers with ease. AI Can’t Do It All, Yet While AI holds immense promise in content creation, it is not without its limitations. More often than not, AI generated content still requires human intervention as it can often miss the mark of what an organization may be driving at with its content. Full articles or blog posts may be nonsensical in places or go beyond the scope of what a company wants a piece to focus on. This is because AI is currently unable to use reasoning like a human can, and it cannot create any original insights. It simply creates based on what its given and in a lot of cases, content may be incorrect or piecemealed in a way that does not make sense. That being said, utilizing AI for content creation has tremendous value and its use will likely grow as advancements are made in technology. However, it is important for marketers to remember that as of right now, AI should be viewed as a tool to assist rather than replace human creativity in content creation. The integration of AI into mortgage and real estate marketing is evolving rapidly, presenting both opportunities and challenges. As AI continues to advance, marketers must strike a balance between leveraging its capabilities for efficiency and preserving the irreplaceable human touch in content creation. The journey towards maximizing AI’s potential in marketing is underway, promising a futurewhere automation and human creativity coexist harmoniously.
… And Three Hotspots for the Real Estate Investor to Consider By Erica LaCentra As rising inflation and interest rates persist in 2023, it is understandable that real estate professionals who enjoyed strong performance in the rental market over the last two years are taking a more cautious approach to their investment plans in the coming year. Rental growth is continuing to slow, and investors are likely seeing property cash flow getting squeezed due to higher capital costs. Because of these factors, many investors are shifting their focus from investing in single-family rentals to multifamily properties. Multifamily properties offer numerous benefits, so even in a time when the market is somewhat turbulent, it is easy to see why investors might see the appeal of this asset class. So, let’s get into why it is a good time to invest in multifamily properties, and what markets are particularly attractive for investors. Grow and Diversify Your Portfolio Fast One of the reasons why multifamily properties are so attractive to investors is that multifamily properties add a larger number of units, thereby expanding their portfolios at one time. Rather than having to purchase numerous single-family homes, by purchasing a multifamily property, an investor can reap the benefits of five units or more right off the bat. With multifamily properties, an investor can also expect to have a cheaper cost per unit than they would spend for a single-family home in the same area. This means greater cash flow and a more manageable way to increase consistent revenue and boost net operating income because there are simply more rental units the investor can lease in that singular property. Owning multifamily properties also creates a more diverse real estate portfolio. Having diversity within a portfolio is crucial in times when the economy experiences a downturn, certain property types are struggling or there are vacancy issues. For example, if an investor owns a single-family home and loses their tenant in a down market, it could be a strain on their finances to have to cover the operating costs of the property until they can fill that vacancy. With a multifamily property, even if there is a vacancy in one or more of the units, there is still the cushion of having income from the other leased units. It is not uncommon for larger multifamily properties to still be profitable or at the very least, break-even, with higher vacancy rates. Finally, when it comes to valuing the diversification a multifamily property can bring to a portfolio, there is the fact that multifamily properties have the potential to appreciate significantly over time, often well above appreciation levels of single-family homes, if and when the time arises when an investor may need to sell. In fact, due to the ongoing lack of housing in the U.S., prices of multifamily properties have skyrocketed in markets across the country due to the significant demand. And while single-family homes are more hearkened to market conditions, like comps in the area and the general supply and demand fluctuations that will directly impact resale value, multifamily properties are a bit more insulated. This is because a multifamily building’s inherent value lies in the income it generates. So, in many cases, an investor could force appreciation for a multifamily property by improving operational efficiencies, and increase cash flow for each unit by renovating or improving units and charging higher rents making it a more valuable property overall. All of these factors make multifamily properties highly desirable to investors, especially with current market conditions. So, for investors that are looking to start investing in multifamily properties, it now becomes a matter of knowing where to look for that next opportunity. Promising Markets for Multifamily When researching markets to invest specifically in multifamily properties, investors should be looking at factors such as population growth, job market growth, general demographics that may indicate higher proportions of renters vs. homeowners, property price appreciation, general demand, and occupancy levels. All of these factors can come into play when determining the ultimate success of that property. So, let’s dig into the top three markets that have been identified as hot spots for multifamily investing in 2023 and what makes them so attractive. First up we have Madison, Wisconsin. While it may come as a surprise for some, or even far off the radar, Madison checks many of the boxes that make it an attractive city for multifamily investing. Nestled about 150 miles from Chicago, IL, and 80 miles from Milwaukee, WI, Madison made a strong rebound following the onset of the pandemic and by the fall of 2021 already had unemployment rates back at pre-pandemic levels. Thus, there was an ongoing need for workforce housing and rentals were in high demand as seen in the occupancy rates which stood at 98% as of November 2022. Developer activity remains high in Madison, with close to 8.000 units underway as of December of last year, meaning there is plenty of opportunity for investors to reap the rewards and take advantage of this affordable metro. While Madison saw a 68% year-over-year increase in per-unit prices, it still falls well below the national average of $215k at a per-unit price of just over $139k, meaning there is plenty of room for future growth. This metro will likely come as no surprise to investors, as Dallas-Fort Worth continues to lead the way for multifamily investment opportunities. DFW checks all the boxes for multis as it has been the single best market for total population growth over the past 10 years. This has been driven by ongoing job growth across most major employment sectors as corporations continue to migrate down south to reap a variety of benefits. This continued increase in population spells a greater need for housing which makes multifamily properties a great investment in this metro. And since there is a more diverse employment mix in DFW, the local economy is more likely to be able to withstand market fluctuations because the market is
Rentals Will Still Reign Supreme in 2023 By Erica LaCentra Investors probably wish they had a crystal ball to easily predict what the new year will hold for real estate and more importantly, where the biggest opportunities in the market will be. However, even without a crystal ball, predictions are in for what 2023 has in store for the real estate industry. Investors will need to be shrewder and savvier to be able to thrive as the market continues to slump. However, 2023 does not have to be a year of investors waiting on the sidelines in hopes of brighter horizons. There are plenty of opportunities in the real estate market that investors can jump on now. It is just all a matter of knowing where to look. A Year for Buying While 2021 and early 2022 were challenging times to try to buy a property, whether as a homeowner or an investor due to incredibly low interest rates, low inventory, rising home prices and unprecedented demand, 2023 may be a bright spot especially for investors to finally be able to snag properties due to the downturn. Home sales have already fallen quite dramatically at the tail end of 2022 with the National Association of REALTORs reporting that pending home sales “slid for the fifth consecutive month in October, down 4.6% from September 2022’s reported findings” and “year-over-year, pending transactions slipped by 37%.” This drop comes as no surprise due to buyers facing 20-year high mortgage rates with many folks taking a wait-and-see approach to the market in hopes rates will come down or the market will show signs of stabilizing before they make a move on purchasing a property. And this trend is predicted to continue through 2023. In a recent Redfin report, Economist Taylor Marr predicted “existing home sales will fall 16% on an annual basis next year to about 4.3 million—their lowest level since the aftermath of the Great Recession in 2011.” From an investor perspective, this could be the ideal time to find an investment property. As interest rates have risen, and buyer demand has lessened, home prices have also started dropping and are projected to continue to drop below their summer peaks. However, these price drops are expected to be modest over the course of the year but can still be impactful for investors looking to buy. Plus, for the first time in a very long time, there are increases in inventory, something buyers across the board have been clamoring for for years. Realtor.com has predicted that in 2023, buyers should be looking at “an increase in existing home sales, up 22.8% year-over-year, as the inventory refresh that began in the summer of 2022 accelerates.” This perfect storm of less competition in the marketplace, upticks in inventory, and dropping home prices means that investors will have great opportunities to swoop in and purchase their next investment property. Especially if they are not concerned about higher interest rates, as most investors are not, and as long as the numbers make sense, there will be increased opportunities to find properties that can offer significant returns whether in the rental market or in the flip market. Rentals Are Still a Safe Bet Since investors will have greater opportunities to buy in 2023, it is important to also consider what investment strategies are going to pay the biggest dividends based on how the real estate market will fare in the coming year. It appears, even with higher interest rates, investors’ best bets will be buying properties to hold as long-term rentals. For the same reasons the market will be good for investors looking to buy, it will make it more challenging for homeowners that are finally looking to purchase. High mortgage rates with slowly declining home prices plus stagnant wage growth will continue to cause affordability issues for first-time home buyers. Plus, as rents continue to climb and are projected to continue to reach new highs, this will leave even less ability for many to save for a down payment for a home. Many people who may have been waiting to buy a home will have to continue to wait and be forced into renting for another year. Investors that are looking to put their properties to work will have ample opportunities to do so if they set them up as long-term rentals. Also, with predictions that many major companies will continue to push to have employees in office more frequently than in past years following the pandemic, this will cause increased rental demand in major markets where buying a home is completely unaffordable for most. Plus, with travel restrictions being a thing of the past and with most people no longer concerned about COVID, this could also be a great opportunity for investors to consider purchasing and operating short-term rentals in major cities to diversify their portfolios. So, whether investors choose to do long-term or short-term rentals, it seems like rentals will still reign supreme in 2023. Optimism in the New Year While there has been tremendous concern about what rate hikes from the Fed would spell for the real estate industry and threats of a recession looming, 2023 does not appear to be all doom and gloom. There will still be tremendous opportunities available in real estate for investors. It will just be a matter of adjusting strategy, making sure the numbers work, and knowing where to look.
Data Provides Greater Insight and Potential for Success for Industry Professionals By Erica LaCentra Companies in the real estate industry today are in a unique position where there is truly greater access to data than ever before. Long gone are the days of making decisions based only on anecdotal evidence, historical trends, and experience within the industry. Having the ability to pull accurate data in real time is empowering those in the industry to get a clearer understanding of where opportunities exist and how to capitalize on those areas of opportunity. So how is data best being leveraged in real estate and how is it being utilized to reshape the industry as a whole? Improved Property Evaluations Whether you are an investor looking to purchase a property, an individual selling a property, an agent trying to list a property, a developer looking to build, or a lender looking to finance a property, having an accurate property valuation is critical to your success. Traditionally, industry professionals rely on their expertise or the expertise and experience of others to manually appraise a property. Utilization of comparative market analyses certainly has its place, however, think how helpful it would be to be able to incorporate other data points into this process to price a property. Being able to factor in additional information such as current and historical market trends, supply and demand levels in an area, fluctuating costs of materials for flippers and builders, and property features provide the ability to more accurately price a home whether it be today or looking into the future. In cases where comparable properties may be unavailable or in rare supply, think luxury properties or properties in rural areas, there can be a greater level of confidence in pricing a home utilizing these data points. Better Risk Mitigation Understanding and analyzing risk in the real estate industry is critical not only to buyers and investors but also to real estate lenders, property owners, and business owners. Having increased access to property data allows real estate professionals to make faster decisions with greater confidence to reduce potential losses. Data can help provide potential homebuyers with greater insight into the area a property is in, such as crime rate trends, projections of property values, and much more that will allow them to understand how their asset might appreciate over time, if at all. For investors, having better data can help them determine the best use of a property. Would a property be a better investment if renovated and sold quickly or is there greater potential for it as a rental property? Being able to analyze market supply and demand, market demographics, rent growth history and projections, home appreciation, and more can create a clear picture of how an investor can get the greatest return on their investment and feel secure in that decision. In the same token, having access to this data can give lenders a greater level of confidence in any of the transactions they are financing. Similarly, having data points about the future use and potential performance of a property can allow lenders to make more calculated decisions about the terms they are offering to ensure they are secure in their position on the transaction, as is their borrower. Utilizing data can help reduce rates of default and help mitigate potential risk because those items have been factored into the decision of whether to lend and what terms to lend at. Enhanced Marketing One of the biggest uses of data currently in the real estate industry is in marketing because professionals can develop a more targeted strategy. Agents and investors are now utilizing data to determine not only how to best market a property but to whom. Being able to identify buyer and renter demographics in various markets ensures that a property is being marketed to the right audience and the appropriate aspects of the property are being highlighted. Having the ability to properly target the right end-buyer or renter so that the property does not sit on the market too long is critical. Also, by looking at market trends and data analytics, real estate companies can start to better predict consumer behaviors, such as when somebody may be ready to buy or sell a property or move, and what areas of the market are going to have increased interest. This allows companies to get in front of potential customers at just the right time to capture those transactions rather than coming in too early or too late and fighting with the competition. Utilizing data allows companies to proactively market in the real estate industry rather than market reactively as the market shifts. Better Forecasting and Understanding of Market Trends The real estate market is cyclical in nature, but it can often be challenging to forecast and predict the future of the space simply by looking at historical data. Having access to data in real-time is a game-changer for not only predicting the future of the industry but also understanding why certain trends may be occurring and what that means for the industry down the line. Being able to overlay data points such as employment trends, inflation vs income levels, home price appreciation, and rent growth allows real estate professionals to get a more complete picture of the market and how it will be impacted by those factors. So even in times of potential turbulence, like the industry is experiencing right now, it is much easier to forecast what the future of the space looks like depending on both internal and external factors. This reduces panic and allows those in the space to adapt to market changes and better prepare rather than just being along for the ride. The Future of Real Estate Data is Now While utilizing data and analytics in real estate does not change the fundamentals of the space, it does provide greater insight and greater potential for success for industry professionals. The real estate market is not a murky crystal ball with
While Not Rosy, Still Fair Share of Opportunities Ahead By Erica LaCentra As we head into the fourth quarter of 2022, predictions for what the real estate and housing market will look like in the coming year are pouring in. As mortgage rates continue to rise due to interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve as a means of combating inflation, the general consensus across the industry is that we must deal with the reality that the housing market is in decline and will likely get worse in 2023 before it gets better. Does this mean we are in for a housing market crash similar to what the industry experienced in 2006? That seems like a very unlikely reality, and thankfully, a dramatic price crash and subsequent financial crisis do not appear to be in the cards. However, the changes that we are likely to see in the market will be substantial for both homebuyers and investors alike. So, let’s dig into the major predictions for the housing market for 2023, and ultimately how to prepare for any fallout they may cause. The Future of Home Prices Two of the biggest ongoing. questions on anyone in real estate’s mind are will home prices finally go down in 2023, and if so, by how much? Since the pandemic, home prices skyrocketed due to housing supply shortages and historically low-interest rates with many outlets quoting that home prices are up 40% since just March of 2020. Even as we approached the halfway point of 2022, home price growth had not shown much sign of slowing down. According to the CoreLogic Home Price Index, “national home prices increased 18.3% in June 2022 compared to a year ago. This growth followed the highest 12-month increase in the U.S. index since the series began in 1976 when April saw prices jump 20.3%.” It does look like prices are finally starting to cool down and that is predicted to continue into 2023. And it will be at a very slow pace. According to forecasts by Fannie Mae, it will not be until “the end of 2023 when home inflation returns to the 5% pace seen before the pandemic.” And even then, it seems like the baseline for U.S. home prices which we have seen set over the last few years, are likely here to stay. Fannie Mae is further forecasting that the median price of a previously owned home will surpass $400k by the end of 2023 and the median price of a new home will end at a record high of $464k by the end of the year, about $100k more than where the price of a new home sat in 2021. All of this calls into question issues of affordability for homeowners, which has been an ongoing problem since the pandemic hit. Those individuals that have been waiting for the right time to buy a home will likely be in for a mixed bag in 2023, with a better opportunity to find a property, as long as they have the means to afford it. Predictions for Housing Supply Another major topic on everyone’s mind as we look towards 2023, is will housing supply potentially start to improve with the market cooling. With home prices not likely to drop significantly in the near future and interest rates rising, many are hoping that this will finally provide a window for more inventory to potentially come on the market, or at least allow inventory to stay on the market for slightly longer to allow buyers a better opportunity as buyer demand remains strong. While there is the expectation that more inventory will be coming onto the market, there is the concern that homeowners will be less likely to list their homes for the remainder of 2022 into the new year, and we are already starting to see those concerns come to fruition. According to one of Redfin’s latest reports, “new listings of homes for sale were down 20% from a year earlier, the largest decline since May 2020.” So, the flood of inventory that homebuyers have been hoping for is still not likely, and any inventory that does come on the market is still not nearly enough to be able to put a dent in the supply issues that have been long-standing in the real estate market. Another area of concern when it comes to supply is the low level of housing starts in the U.S. that is not showing significant signs of improvement. Ongoing issues with material costs and labor have negatively affected this area of the market throughout the pandemic and this trend looks like it will potentially continue into 2023. Even with the construction sector experiencing an unexpected jump in August for both single-family and multifamily starts, with single-family starts growing 3.4% month-over-month and multifamily starts growing 28% month-over-month, housing starts overall are still struggling to meet demand. The single-family space specifically continues to be an area of concern when it comes to supply versus demand with weak builder sentiment and a 15.3% year-over-year decline in permits that a small jump cannot even hope to make a dent in. Unfortunately, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development “total building permits fell by 10% in August with single-family permits down 3.5% and multifamily dropping by 17.9%.” So, while the increase in starts in August was nice to see compared to the sad streak of declines earlier in the year, the drop in permitting likely spells trouble on the horizon as it is a clear indicator that builders are likely slowing down potentially as they see the housing market starting to slow overall. This spells trouble for inventory levels going into the new year as new construction is crucial to meet future market demand. A Seller’s Market or a Buyer’s Market Based on the predictions we are seeing around home prices and housing supply levels, the final question many in the industry are asking is, will