The National Debt, Mortgage Rates, and Inflation
by REI INK
It may be hard to fathom, but according to GovTrack.us, there are currently 17,329 bills and resolutions before the United States Congress with only about 7% of them expected to become law.
As of this writing, July 18, 2026, the country and the world are in even more uncertain times than even just a month ago. So, while our elected officials are busy debating the permanency of daylight savings time, naming post offices, and other frivolous bills and resolutions, this article focuses on things that really matter.
The National Debt
According to the U.S. Treasury, the U.S. national debt stands at $39.5 trillion, which amounts to roughly $118,300 for every American citizen. The debt held by the public currently stands at a staggering $31.8 trillion (the difference of $7.7 trillion is Intragovernmental Holdings), a little more than 100% of GDP. According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO), if Washington continues to embrace its standard operating procedure, that figure is projected to climb to a stunning 175% of GDP over the next 30 years.
The Wars
Russia and Ukraine have been actively at war for over four years, following Russia’s full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022. Russia continues to bombard Ukrainian cities, while Ukraine conducts drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and military sites. The United States has appropriated and made available $188 billion in total spending related to the war in Ukraine. Official government data tracking from the U.S. Ukraine Oversight Interagency Coordination group shows that $177.8 billion of that total has been formally “obligated” (legally committed to specific contracts or packages) and $116 billion has been fully “disbursed” (spent or delivered), leaving $11.9 billion available for obligation.
Currently, there is not a proposed “deal” that both sides will agree to.
The “War with Iran” is both escalating and spreading, with Iran retaliating against its neighbors in the region after the United States continues to bomb Iran night-after-night. Two U.S. service members were killed during an Iranian attack on a base in Jordan and four other American service members were wounded in the attack, while one is listed as Missing in Action. Iran has also launched attacks on Gulf countries that host U.S. forces, including Bahrain and Kuwait. These attacks were also conducted on civilian infrastructure, not just military targets.
As the fighting between Iran and the United States continues to escalate, tensions also appeared to be rising along the Israel-Lebanon border.
How much is this war costing U.S. taxpayers? The Department of Defense publicly cited $29 billion to $30 billion in operational costs. However, internal Pentagon assessments indicate the real baseline is $80 billion to $100 billion once base repairs, aircraft replacements, and full weapons replenishment are factored in. The war has cost U.S. taxpayers and consumers at least $132 billion so far, according to Moody’s Analytics.
Also, according to analyses from Moody’s Analytics, the broader financial burden amounts to roughly $1,100 per American household, which includes hidden taxpayer and consumer costs, such as energy (taxpayers have paid over $40 billion to $68 billion in extra fuel costs due to global oil supply disruptions) and increased interest rates.
Currently, both the United States and Iran have suspended their commitments to the Memorandum of Understanding.
Mortgage Rates, Inflation
According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.55% as of July 16, 2026, up from the previous week when it averaged 6.49%. A year ago, at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.75%.
The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.93%, up from the previous week when it averaged 5.82%. A year ago, at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.92%.
According to Trading Economics, the inflation rate in the United States decreased to 3.50% in June from 4.20% in May of 2026. Core inflation, which excludes the volatile energy and food categories, was unchanged. The inflation rate in the United States is expected to be 3.70% by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts’ expectations. In the long-term, the United States inflation rate is projected to trend around 2.60% in 2027 and 2.50% in 2028, according to their econometric models.
The cooling inflation figures reduce pressure on the Fed to combat higher prices by hiking interest rates. Still, the renewed conflict in the Middle East has already driven up oil prices and could reverse some of the progress on inflation in coming months, according to recent AP article.
On July 14, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said that the Fed will make high inflation “a thing of the past,” yet he provided no signal about the central bank’s next steps.
