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An “Extreme” Solution to Pressing Housing Questions

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Toni Moss & AmeriCatalyst Present the 2024 Climate & Housing Conference Toni Moss, CEO of AmeriCatalyst LLC, never intended to produce conferences. An expert on global mortgage markets, Moss spent much of the 1990s in Europe working as the Director of Corporate Development for Bouwfonds, a division of the Dutch government that was created to rebuild Holland after World War II. Moss’s background in corporate intelligence, scenario planning and due diligence served her well in this position and, during her experiences across 23 countries during that time, she saw how mortgage markets were heading toward trouble by the early 2000s and tried to do something about it. In 2002, she launched the annual Eurocatalyst (now AmeriCatalyst) conference to discuss the impact of globalization on the mortgage and real estate industries. Last held in 2020, this year AmeriCatalyst is coming back with a new event, AmeriCatalyst’s “GOING TO EXTREMES: The Climate, Housing, and Finance Leadership Summit.” REI INK sat down with Moss to discuss the conference, climate change, real estate, and the surprising ways they all fit together. There are a lot of conferences in the real estate space. What makes AmeriCatalyst conferences unique? My focus is on the actual purpose of the event and not its profit, and, as a result, these events are known for being quite intellectually challenging and unconventional. I apply some “quirky” things to the format to make the event valuable from a business perspective, fun from a personal perspective, and entirely unique to the industry. The seating is cabaret-style, to build community. I use music to editorialize each session, which is often very funny. I use clever (and snarky) session titles with double entendres and everyone knows to read between the lines of my programs because the more they look, the more there is to see. I keep these events to a smaller audience of invite-only attendees numbering no more than 300 because I want the smartest minds in the room together. Each year, every session is a chapter in the bigger “story” of the conference so that by the end of the event, you have a very clear view of the “big picture” issues that are driving the market and can anticipate what will happen next. By the way, this will be the first year in our history that an AmeriCatalyst event has ever been open to media coverage.  What are examples of past themes at your events? In 2010, I added an entire day onto the main AmeriCatalyst event and called it “Renting, the Future.” The day was focused on the emergence of the unknown and amorphous collection of individuals and companies buying single family homes and renting them out. Single-family rental (SFR) was not even a defined industry sector at the time because most people thought that it was a short-term trade on house price appreciation and not a long-term trend. But in calling it “Renting, the Future” I was making an editorial statement that renting literally is the future because homeownership would increasingly become out of the reach of the average American – and it certainly has. In 2011, the event was themed “Convergence” in reference to the convergence of the housing-finance side of the industry and the real estate sector. I predicted real estate agencies would become mortgage lenders due, in large part, to the emergence of Single Family Rental (SFR). I also wanted to show the similarities between the mortgage industry and SFR on the servicing and property management side. In 2013, I themed the event “Rorschach” because I noticed an interesting trend of people dismissing conventional facts and paying more attention to what they wanted to see rather than what really was. In retrospect, other than 2002, which was the earliest event on record naming the crisis of 2007/2008, perhaps the most profound theme was our last event in 2020. It was themed “ENTROPY: Surviving the New Abnormal”. In early February of 2020, the market was doing quite well; I came along and called its condition an advanced state of entropy. At that time, I wrote, “The housing industry suffers from a pathologically short attention span. We predict that almost 40% of today’s companies in the housing ecosystem will not survive over the next five years”. At the time I had written that, the party was going strong. Covid hit three days later. This year’s event is titled, “Going to Extremes.” How did you decide on that? The ravages of extreme climate now impact every single region of the US, accelerating the frequency and severity of catastrophic weather events and leading to a very volatile and unpredictable future. Belief in climate change is inconsequential at this point; extreme climate is here and now — not five or ten years away — and it is affecting practical elements of our lives (and portfolios). We must analyze the issue and prepare for how it will change our lives and our investments in the near future. Think about this for a minute: we live in a world where the greatest change is the pace of change. We expect social, political, and technological change, but none of us grew up anticipating environmental change. Our climate is changing far faster than at any other time in human history, and these changes are permanent. Yet, we have built our entire housing and finance infrastructure under the assumption that the climate is stable. Contrast that against a property and casualty insurance policy, which is an annual product. See the duration mismatch? By assuming stability in the future, we have embedded all of our greatest vulnerabilities into the very foundation of the housing ecosphere. Now, we’re seeing insurance companies pull out of Florida, California and Louisiana; some are even considering leaving Texas due to hail damage and flooding. The entire housing-finance system is built upon insurance as the greatest risk-transfer mechanism, but we can no longer count on that. This is the proverbial canary in the coal mine. Are we headed toward an uninsurable future?

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The Critical Role of Single-Family Rentals in solving the Housing Crisis

A Case Study in Leadership By Adolfo Villagomez It is no secret that communities across the United States are experiencing a growing crisis: access to housing. With consumers facing increasingly complex and evolving economic challenges in a post- pandemic world, the demand for affordable housing options continues to grow, as the demand for housing overall continues to outpace supply. According to the 2023 Gap Report from the National Low Income Housing Coalition, the United States has a deficit of 7.3 million rental homes that are affordable and available to individuals and families with extremely low incomes (incomes at or below the federal poverty guideline or 30% of their area median income, whichever is greater). In addition, data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development on its largest rental assistance program reports that more than 400,000 housing choice vouchers currently go unused, and the primary reason is because voucher holders are unable to find a home. As a leader in the single-family rental industry, Progress Residential has a responsibility to be part of the solution to the housing crisis in our country. Our size, scale and investments in data and technology allow us to test and deploy solutions to housing challenges and positively impact our resident experience. We also work in partnership with institutional investment to deploy private capital for public good, expanding access to secure and stable housing and empowering residents to live in communities of their choice in a time when that access is more challenging than ever. As part of this work, Progress has made a commitment to grow our affordable housing operations across the country, with a focus on expanding our participation in the federal Housing Choice Voucher Program (Section 8), pursuing innovative, community-based partnerships, and supporting our residents’ economic mobility through financial tools like free positive rent reporting. Increasing Participation in the Housing Choice Voucher Program (HCVP) In 2023, we announced plans to accelerate and expand our affordable housing footprint by increasing the number of residents with Housing Choice Vouchers in partnership with local public housing authorities. To support this critical work, we needed to make significant investments in our operational infrastructure, as the Housing Choice leasing process and the needs of the residents we serve through this program are different from our core business. Investments included recruiting a talented leadership team with specific knowledge and experience building successful affordable housing programs and technology and processes to support the nuances of working with local housing authorities and HCV holders. While we still have work ahead to refine our platform to continue to allow us to scale, at the end of 2023, we grew our affordable housing portfolio by nearly 75% while building critical partnerships with more than 100 local Housing Authorities. We continue to gain valuable insights that will help us grow our affordable housing footprint in the future. Pursuing Innovative, Community-Based Partnerships to Increase Access to Affordable Housing Another way we can make a positive impact in our communities is by pursuing innovative public- private partnerships to address affordable housing. In the fall of 2022, Progress Residential and Pretium worked in partnership with Atlanta Mayor Andre Dickens, the City of Atlanta and several community partners to successfully relocate dozens of Atlanta families from Forest Cove, a federally assisted housing community condemned by the City, into single-family homes. Progress was able to leverage our scale and skilled operations team to provide multiple options for secure, stable single-family rental homes that better met the needs of the families, creating a model for public-private partnership that the company aims to replicate in other communities. Reporting Positive Rent Payments to Credit Bureaus Empowers Residents In March 2022, Progress pioneered a ground-breaking approach to resident financial empowerment, offering free positive rent reporting for all Progress residents. Through a partnership with a financial technology platform, Esusu, Progress offers a free service to our residents that reports on-time rent payments to all three major credit bureaus to help build credit, improve financial wellness, and promote wealth creation. Supporting previously credit-invisible residents and facilitating credit score improvements is aligned with our goal of promoting equitable participation and access. The rent reporting program has made a measurable impact for our residents. At the end of November 2023, 180,000 residents were participating, with 53% of participants experiencing an increase in their credit scores, and an average credit score improvement of 43 points. For some Progress residents, this could represent a 5 to 10% decrease in interest rates on borrowing. Seven percent of residents moved from subprime to prime credit, increasing access to credit, and more than 6,700 residents established a first-time credit score and are no longer credit invisible, a major milestone toward financial independence. When we look at the program’s impact on former residents of Forest Cove, as of Fall 2023, 79% have increased their credit scores since enrolling in positive rent reporting, and more than 32% have now established a first-time credit score and are no longer credit invisible. We continue to roll out additional financial wellness tools to support our resident’s economic mobility. Why Access to Single-Family Rental Homes Matters According to research by Raj Chetty and Nathaniel Hendren, access to high-opportunity neighborhoods can increase chances for economic and social mobility, giving families an opportunity to thrive and potentially ending the cycle of poverty for their children. Through our platform, Progress Residential is expanding choice and opportunity through access to neighborhoods that have lower poverty and crime rates, higher performing schools, more mixed incomes and amenities families seek. Single-family homes are typically in less dense neighborhoods with more accessible green space and more square footage to accommodate larger households than other types of rental options. We focus on the safety of our neighborhoods and on providing working and middle-income families new opportunities in differentiated neighborhoods. Many of our homes are in homeowners association subdivisions and may have access to better schools than the local renter market options. By taking a social lens to our homes and seeking to drive capital

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Build Baby Build

The Case for Legislation That Encourages and Incentivizes New Investment and Development in Housing By David Howard America’s housing market has a problem – we are not producing enough homes. Just consider the following: »          In 1970, America built 420,000 “starter” homes; in 2020 we built just 65,000. »          Fannie Mae has reported there were fewer homes built in the U.S. in the 10-year period ending in 2018 than in any decade since the 1960s. »          The Washington, DC nonprofit, Up for Growth, has shown the amount of housing underproduction in the U.S. increased to 3.79 million units in 2019 from 1.65 million units in 2012. »          Realtor.com calculated that the gap between single-family home construction and household formation grew to 6.5 million between 2012 and 2022. As a result, the cost of housing keeps increasing. In October of 2023 the S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index reached an all-time high of 312.95, rising more than 50% over the las five years and almost 100% over the last ten years. The result? More Americans are at risk of being priced out of the housing market. According to the National Association of Home Builders, 96.5 million American households are unable to afford a median priced new home. And, with every $1,000 increase in the cost of a median priced new home, an additional 140,000 households are priced out of the market. While some may say rising interest rates are to blame — a factor that undoubtedly makes financing a home less appealing and more expensive — it does not explain the continuing rise in home prices. Historically, one would expect rising rates to be offset to some degree by a decline, or at least a moderation, in home prices. However, that has not been the case. During the rising rate environment of the past 18 months, home prices have not declined, but in fact, have increased. While it is certainly true that America’s housing market is influenced by a wide variety of factors, one of the chief reasons home prices have continued to increase is because we are not building enough homes. As we all learned in Economics 101, strong demand coupled with low supply means higher prices. The concern over housing supply is the subject of a new report by the Urban Institute, a Washington, DC research and policy nonprofit focused on issues of upward mobility and equity. The report, titled “Place the Blame Where It Belongs,” examines the high cost of housing in the U.S. and cites a lack of supply as the principal cause. In the report, the Urban Institute also dispels many of the myths and inaccuracies — including the role of housing investors — commonly used to distract attention from the true underlying causes of the housing market supply/demand dynamic. Key takeaways from the report include: »          “A massive supply shortage is causing high home prices and rents, and the way to fix it is to build more housing (and rehabilitate existing house where economical).” »          “It is important to begin with the basic fact that high home prices and rents are the result of the housing supply shortage, caused by more robust household formation relative to increases in the housing stock.” »          “Regardless of whether investors are institutional or mom-and-pop, and regardless of whether investors buy single-family or multifamily properties, the driving cause is that there is more demand than supply, and some of that demand is demand for rental property.” From a policy perspective the solution is simple: create legislation that encourages and incentivizes new investment and development in housing, a point also brought out in the Urban Institute report: »          “Policy interventions to make housing more affordable for all households must simultaneously 1) make more supply available, and 2) provide adequate subsidies such that lower-income households can afford a place to live.” »          “The federal government must specify a housing supply policy that prioritizes the most cost-effective ways of increasing supply.” Until we start to produce more housing, consistently, we will continue to suffer the consequences of high home prices.

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California’s Recently Passed SB 567

What to Understand Before Jumping into the Fire By Todd E. Chvat, Esq. and T. Robert Finlay, Esq. SB 567 directly impacts two sets of property owners — fix-and-flip investors planning to substantially remodel or rebuild a property for resale AND property owners planning to move into an occupied property either themselves or by a family member. To Understand the New Laws, We Must Understand the Old Laws Civil Code § 1946.2 prohibits a property owner from removing a tenant who has continuously lived in the property for 12 months without just cause. “Just cause” is broken into two groups — “at-fault just cause” and “no-fault just cause.” As you can imagine, “at-fault just cause” generally involves a tenant’s failure to pay rent, breach of lease, waste, running a meth lab or other criminal activity. For our purposes, we are focused on the “no-fault just cause” grounds to remove occupants, which include: (i) the property owner or family member moving into the property; (ii) completely removing the property from the rental market; (iii) complying with certain government orders, e.g., code violations; or (iv) substantially remodeling the property. Beginning April 1, 2024, SB 567 will add a significant hurdle to any “no-fault just cause” eviction where the property owner (or the owner’s direct relative) desires to occupy the residential real property or an investor seeks to displace the tenant for a substantial remodel. New Rules for Property Owners Planning to Move Into the Property It is very common for prospective owners to buy rental property with the goal of moving in or for existing property owners to remove occupants to move their children or parents into the property. Historically, this was a fairly easy process with no restrictions or guidelines on when the owner must occupy the property or for how long. Effective April 1, 2024, SB 567 will require that the property owner or family member (spouse, domestic partner, parent, child, grandchild, grandparent) actually move into the property within 90 days AND continuously occupy the property as their primary residence for at least 12 months. In other words, property owners cannot just use the “move in” provision as an excuse to get rid of a tenant they do not like or to increase the rent. In addition to the new requirements in SB 567, property owners should also pay close attention to City and County restrictions on asking tenants to move out so you or your family can move in. Many Cities and Counties have conflicting or more restrictive requirements. Before buying a property with the plan to remove the occupants and move in or before acting to move your family into one of your rental properties, we suggest contacting your attorney to understand all applicable laws. See below for what happens if you get it wrong. New Rules for Investors Planning to Tear Down and Rebuild Previously, investors could relatively easily remove occupants by citing the “substantial remodel” grounds of the “no-fault just cause” grounds. Starting April 1, 2024, those same investors will have to jump through several more hoops before they can remove the tenants. Specifically, SB 567 will require the investor to provide the tenant with written notice, which includes a description of the substantial remodel to be completed and the expected duration of the repairs, or the expected date by which the property will be demolished, and a copy of permits required to undertake the substantial remodel or demolition. The Bill further requires that the remodel or demolition actually be done. Again, please keep in mind that some Cities and Counties have different and often more restrictive requirements when removing tenants to demo or substantially remodel the property. What Happens if You Get it Wrong? SB 567 gives wrongfully displaced tenants the right to sue property owners for violating either of the above provisions. In addition to recovering actual damages, the wrongfully displaced tenant can recover punitive damages, treble damages (i.e., triple actual damages) and attorneys’ fees and costs. On top of that, a property owner who wrongfully displaces a tenant to demo or substantially remodel the property, must also offer the property back to the displaced tenant at the same rent and lease terms along with reimbursement for reasonable moving expenses. And, if that’s not enough, the Attorney General could also sue you for the same violations. And Don’t Forget When using any of the “no-fault just cause” grounds for removal, the tenants are entitled to relocation costs equal to one month’s rent. And, you guessed it – many Cities and Counties require more substantial relocation costs. Lastly, don’t forget to check to see if there are any local rent control restrictions! Do the New Laws Mean That Property Owners Can Never Move In or Remodel Their Property? No. SB 567 is not so onerous that it prevents property owners from moving their kids into a rental property or investors from remodeling and reselling property. Nor does it make the process so complicated that it is no longer cost-effective to do so. SB 567 merely changes the rules by which property owners may remove tenants. If done properly, investors and property owners can still take advantage of these “no fault” grounds to get possession. But, if not done properly, SB 567 creates significant financial exposure for these property owners and investors. To reduce that risk, we recommend consulting with your counsel prior to venturing down either path to remove occupants. Disclaimer: The above information is intended for information purposes alone and is not intended as legal advice. Please consult with counsel before taking any steps in reliance on any of the information contained herein.

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Real Estate is a Team Sport

Licensed Real Estate Agents/Brokers are Invaluable Resources By Doedi Meyer We all know investing in real estate takes some combination of knowledge, money and time. In the REI INK November 2023 article “Industry Professionals That Can Accelerate Your Investment Career,” Nate Zielinski mentions several professionals whose help and expertise are invaluable. In the category of Real Estate Brokers, Mr. Zielinski mentions mortgage brokers, lenders who can help the investor find the terms that make the deals work. This is a very important part of the game, but to go one step further, there is another industry profession in the Real Estate Broker category: a state licensed real estate agent or broker, preferably one who is also investing in real estate for their own portfolio. Licensed real estate agents/brokers who are also knowledgeable investors have a larger, more varied playbook than those who have only listed and sold properties for clients. Just as you would not hesitate to leverage the skills and efficiencies that come with the hiring of a property manager, CPA or attorney when needed to scale your portfolio, working with licensed real estate agents in the real estate transaction can increase your productivity, deepen your knowledge of the area, and improve your reach into areas beyond the local area. If you live in California and want to invest in Texas, that’s a lot of ground to cover. By establishing a client/agent relationship with agents and brokers in the areas you are interested in, you will have boots on the ground that have local area expertise. What they are called varies by state: some states may call everyone a broker, and some states distinguish between an agent and a broker by the level of education, training, and testing. Many have taken the extra step and joined the National Association of Realtors®, the largest trade group in the country. Realtors® are held to a higher ethical standard and have sworn to uphold the Realtor® Code of Ethics. They all have some level of fiduciary responsibility to their clients. By adding one or more of these players to your investing team, you can put a lot of skills and knowledge to work for you. So, what are these skills and how do you find an agent who has the expertise you need? Training and Experience A clear overview of the playing field is a great start. An experienced agent who has gone above and beyond the basic required training will know the ins and outs of the entire process. They’ll also have contacts they’ve made over the years to further leverage their value. Timely Expertise Are the national housing market headlines applicable in the area you want? Often the media generates a lot of fear and uncertainty. Your investing decisions require more confidence. The right agent will have in-depth data on their area to clarify how these headlines do or do not apply to your goals and your preferred area. Pricing and Market Value You have likely heard the phrase, “You make your money when you buy your investment property.” We are back to the value of data, and it is likely the agents with local area expertise have the most access to the data you need. To buy at the right price, you will need to know comparable sales prices of properties in various conditions and what the potential lease rates will be if you want a long-term hold. When selling, it may be tempting to go with a higher asking price, perhaps recommended by an agent who is anxious to get the listing. Overpricing property almost always has negative consequences. Studies show that as days on market increase, buyers start discounting the property and asking the dreaded question “What’s wrong with the house?” The agent who has the data and knows how to use it can explain the current market and the competition. The data-driven conversation is important when you make your purchase offer and when determining your listing price. And ask the agents you interview to give a detailed description of their process for selling the property. Contracts and Details Contracts. Disclosures. Do I need this particular document to protect myself in the transaction or not? Agents cannot give legal advice or draft documents (unless they’re also lawyers), but they have a lot of training that can guide the transaction to the finish line while minimizing the chances for liability and future complications. More than a Sign in the Yard Everyone knows about For Sale By Owner (FSBO). In the world of searching for investment properties, we know that sometimes those are a possible source for a good deal. So, what does that tell you about selling an investment property for top dollar? The answer is, don’t go FSBO. Effective listing agents have strategies, marketing tools and networks to attract more buyers. And since they do not get paid until the deal closes, the marketing dollars they spend do not come out of your pocket. Negotiating Whether you are a full-time investor or have a day job, this all takes time. When you have that great agent on your team, they take care of all the details, so you don’t have to. They will also offer suggestions on viable negotiating strategies and act as a buffer between you and the other side of the transaction, and may be able to gain more insight into what the seller or buyer really needs to make the deal happen. (Hint: it might not be a higher price.) Developing one or more relationships with licensed agents in the areas you are interested in can save time and effort. Take the time to meet agents at real estate investing meetups and networking meetings. When you find the ones who click, build the relationships. One last thing Generally, real estate agents work on commission. They get paid when a deal closes. When you build a relationship with an agent and they know you will offer opportunities for closings, they will likely be willing

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Renting a Home Still More Affordable Than Owning

Home Rental and Ownership Still Difficult in 2024 for Average Workers By ATTOM Staff ATTOM released its 2024 Rental Affordability Report, which shows that median three-bedroom rents in the U.S. are more affordable than owning a similarly-sized home in nearly 90% of local markets around the nation. The report shows that both renting and owning a three-bedroom home continue to pose significant financial burdens for average workers, consuming more than one-third of their wages in the vast majority of county-level housing markets. But median rental rates still require a smaller portion of average wages than major home-ownership expenses on three-bedroom properties in 296, or 88%, of the 338 U.S. counties with enough data to analyze. That gap extends trends from 2023 even as rents have commonly risen faster than home prices over the past year around the U.S. “Finding an affordable home remains a daunting prospect around the country for average workers, regardless of whether they want to buy or rent. Continuously increasing home prices contribute to the escalation of rental costs, making both buying and renting properties a challenging endeavor across most of the United States.,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “But the latest data shows that even as rents are growing faster, they remain more affordable than owning.” The current situation favoring renting over buying reflects a combination of housing market trends that offer limited straightforward options for home seekers but ultimately lean towards the advantage of rentals. Over the past year, both rental rates and home prices have continued to rise in most of the country. Rental rates have climbed even faster in a majority of counties with enough data to analyze. That has happened as elevated home prices have become further and further out of reach for average workers, preventing those with marginal finances from obtaining mortgages and leaving them with few options other than renting. Home prices kept going up in 2023 despite rising mortgage rates, in part because of a tight supply of homes for sale. Still, despite renting and ownership consuming more than a third of average wages in most local markets, rents have not escalated enough to keep them from being the more affordable option for average workers. That trend has held throughout the country but remains most pronounced in the most populous urban and suburban markets. Most populous counties have widest affordability gaps between renting and owning Among 45 counties with a population of at least 1 million included in the report, the biggest gaps are in: »          Honolulu, HI (median three-bedroom rents consume 67% of average local wages while typical single-home affordability consume 134% »          Kings County (Brooklyn), NY (72% for renting versus 136% for owning) »          Alameda County (Oakland), CA (51% for renting versus 108% for owning) »          Santa Clara County (San Jose), CA (29% for renting versus 83% for owning) »          Orange County, CA (outside Los Angeles) (88% for renting versus 136% for owning) Renting three-bedroom homes stretches budgets but remains most affordable in South and Midwest Among the 64 markets where median three-bedroom rents require less than one-third of average local wages, 59 are in the Midwest and South. Aside from Riverside County, the least affordable for renting among counties with a population of at least 1 million are: »          Orange County, CA (outside Los Angeles) (88% of average local wages needed to rent) »          Los Angeles County, CA (83%) »          Kings County (Brooklyn), NY (72%) »          Palm Beach County (West Palm Beach), FL (70%) Most-affordable home ownership markets still in South and Midwest The most affordable markets for owning are: »          Wayne County (Detroit), MI (19% of average local wages needed to own) »          Montgomery County, AL (21%) »          St. Louis City/County, MO (23%) »          Bibb County (Macon), GA (23%) »          Caddo Parish (Shreveport), LA (23%)

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