Home Investor Share Inches Higher

Small Investors are Gradually Regaining Their Market Share By Thomas Malone The high U.S. home investor share seen over the past two years nudged up higher to close out 2023. In December, the share of single-family purchases that were made by investors hit 28.7%, an all-time high in CoreLogic’s data that dates to 2010. This was a clear rise over the Fall share and raises the possibility that the share could rise above 30% in early 2024. Figure 1 shows the share of home purchases made by investors since January 2019. In 2019 and 2020, the investor share never went above 20%, but in 2021 this share leaped up, and investors have made roughly a quarter of all single family purchases in each year since. Though the investor surge began in the low interest rate environment, it has persisted throughout all interest rate increases, and is not showing anything that would indicate it will return drop back below 20% soon.   Figure 2 illustrates the number of U.S. home purchases made by investors and non-investors through December 2023. All these numbers are well below the levels investors purchased at in the previous 2 years, where investors made more than 100,000 purchases in each month. Notable in Figure 2 is the large drop in owner-occupied purchases, down about 200,000 purchases a month from the levels seen from 2020 to 2022. This is our earliest snapshot of how different types of buyers might react to rates above 7% and shows an early sign that investors may be the more resilient group. Small investors make up most of the market Figure 3 shows that throughout 2023, mega-investors (those that own 1,000 or more properties) and large investors (those that own 100 to 999 properties) have each held market shares of about 10%. Medium investors (those that own 10 to 99 properties) made up about 35% of the market, and small investors (those that own 3 to 9 properties) were the remaining 45%. Though we are seeing an uptick in investor share, this is masking what is really a cold market. Flippers are buying at rates that are well below their pre-pandemic levels, and large/mega-investors have stopped their spending sprees. Small investors are gradually regaining their market share, but still are only buying at their pre-pandemic levels. Interestingly, it may be the low rates of 2020-22 might be bringing new ‘Mom and Pop’ investors into the market. The low rates of this period let a huge number of existing homeowners refinance their mortgage to more favorable terms, raising the chances that they rent out their existing home when they move, rather than sell. This is happening while rising rates and prices push potential first time buyers who cannot make a down payment back to the rental market.

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Has the American Dream Changed?

More Americans Placing Higher Value on Renting than Home Ownership By Entrata Staff Entrata, a leading AI-enabled multifamily industry operating system, announced The New American Dream report, which found that the American Dream is changing as more people are renting by choice and not because they can’t afford to own a home. In fact, 20% expect to be lifelong renters, an increase of 33% percent from 2021 (15%). This further highlights a clear evolution in consumer psychology as home ownership is no longer perceived as the only path to obtaining the American Dream. “Today’s apartment residents are reshaping the traditional American Dream to fit what’s most important to them, including flexibility, prime amenities offered in their communities and the ability to live life on their terms,” said Adam Edmunds, Chief Executive Officer of Entrata. “Many renters no longer see the need to be tied to a home and a mortgage when apartment communities provide everything they need. Experiences seem to be at the core of the new American Dream and renters are making the most of them.” The New American Dream For many apartment residents today, not all roads to the American Dream lead to homeownership, instead, they’re increasingly expecting to rent for the long haul as they invest in other areas to build their quality of life. Emphasizing this further, the report found that 41% of renters say their American Dream has nothing to do with homeownership. This is in large part because renting offers flexibility and freedom that fits their lifestyle and finances. Highlighting this further, 66% of renters say renting fits their current lifestyle more than owning a home and 23% of renters like the location flexibility renting gives them. Renting: It’s Not Just About the Money The outdated notion that renters are either too young or financially unable to buy a house is a thing of the past. Today’s renters are well-established and confident in their professional position. As a matter of fact, 33% of renters say they could afford a home that meets their needs in 2024, and 25% of renters with a strong credit score (above 750) never want to stop renting. Renting also offers flexibility and freedom that fits their lifestyle and finances: »              66% of renters say renting fits their current lifestyle more than owning a home. »              23% of renters like the location flexibility renting gives them and 17% like the financial flexibility of not being tied to a mortgage. Entrata found that 46% of renters have the financial means to pursue their hobbies and 65% are happy with the direction of their career, with 73% seeing a path to pursue their career goals. Additionally, 35% say being a renter gives them more career opportunities than being a homeowner. A majority of renters (63%) even feel they have a similar or better quality of life than their parents at a similar age. With credit card debt skyrocketing and rainy day funds plummeting, renters are prioritizing other financial goals over saving for a home: »              56% of renters say they’re prioritizing paying off debts right now rather than saving and 43% prefer to have their savings in investments and retirement strategies that are easy to liquidate rather than real estate. »              More than a third (36%) of renters prefer to invest in retirement than save for a home. »              Nearly three-quarters of renters (74%) are spending their discretionary money on experiences like dining, international travel, and entertainment (e.g. concerts, sporting events, etc.). For more information about Entrata and its technology, please visit www.entrata.com.

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Networking with Intention to Build Strong Business Relationships

Kurt Power is a real estate investor, a certified IRA specialist, and the head of Business Development at Quest Trust. He has years of experience in different areas of the industry and he is on the show today to help us learn some of the most valuable lessons he learned throughout his career. Listen now to learn more about Kurt’s journey from the fitness industry to real estate, the power of networking, and the importance of people to your success in real estate! Quotables “Fitness is very much very entrepreneurial, even if you work for a corporation. You have to set your own pace, set your own schedule, you have to run your own business.” “Success is contagious. When you have it in one area, you start to think ‘I can do more,’ and there really are no limits.” “Make sure that your friends and family have your best interests in mind and are supportive of you because I promise you, the more on board they are with you, the easier your journey is going to be.” Links Website: Quest Trust https://www.questtrustcompany.com/contact-us Website: RCN Capital https://www.rcncapital.com/podcast Website: REI INK https://rei-ink.com/

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The Typical Homebuyer’s Down Payment Is $56,000, Up 24% From a Year Ago

Redfin reports over one-third of home purchases in February were made in all cash—not far from the record high The median down payment for U.S. homebuyers was $55,640 in February, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. That’s up 24.1% from $44,850 a year earlier—the largest annual increase in percentage terms since April 2022. The typical homebuyer’s down payment last month was equal to 15% of the purchase price, up from 10% a year earlier. This is based on a Redfin analysis of county records across 40 of the most populous U.S. metropolitan areas going back through 2011. “Homebuyers are doing whatever they can to pull together a large down payment in order to lower their monthly payments moving forward,” said Rachel Riva, a Redfin real estate agent in Miami. “The smallest down payment I’ve seen recently is 25%. I had one client who put down 40%.” Home prices rose 6.6% year over year in February, which is part of the reason down payments increased; a higher home price naturally leads to a higher down payment because the down payment is a percentage of the home price. But elevated housing costs (from both high prices and high mortgage rates) are also incentivizing buyers to take out larger down payments. A bigger down payment means a smaller total loan amount, and a smaller loan amount means smaller monthly interest payments. For example, a buyer who purchases today’s median-priced U.S. home ($374,500) and puts 15% down would have a monthly payment of $2,836 at the current 6.79% mortgage rate. A buyer who puts 10% down on that same home with that same rate would have a monthly payment of $2,968. That’s $132 more per month, which adds up over the course of a mortgage. Mortgage rates are down from their October peak of roughly 8%, but are still more than double the all-time low hit during the pandemic. Over 1 in 3 Home Purchases Are Made With Cash—a Near Record Share Over one-third (34.5%) of U.S. home purchases in February were made with all cash, up from 33.4% a year earlier. That’s just shy of the 34.8% decade-high hit in November, and isn’t far below the record high of 38% hit in 2013. Redfin defines an all-cash purchase as a home purchase with no mortgage loan information on the deed. Some homebuyers are paying in cash for the same reason others are taking out large down payments: elevated mortgage interest rates. While a large down payment helps ease the sting of high rates by reducing monthly interest payments, an all-cash purchase removes the sting altogether because it means a buyer isn’t paying interest at all. Most buyers, though, can’t afford to pay in cash, and many can’t afford a big down payment either. First-time buyers, especially, are at a disadvantage in today’s market. That’s because they don’t have equity from the sale of a previous home to bolster their down payments, and are often competing against all-cash offers, which sellers tend to favor. Many all-cash offers come from investors, who were buying up more than one-quarter of the country’s low-priced homes as of the end of last year. Overall, though, investors are purchasing far fewer homes than they were during the pandemic housing boom. “High mortgage rates are widening the wealth gap between people of different races, generations and income levels,” said Redfin Economics Research Lead Chen Zhao. “They’ve added fuel to the fire lit by surging home prices during the pandemic, creating a reality where in many places, wealthy Americans are the only ones who can afford to buy homes. Meanwhile, people who are priced out of homeownership are missing out on a major wealth building opportunity, which could have financial implications for their children and even their children’s children.” FHA Loans More Popular Than They Were During Pandemic Because the Market Is Less Competitive Roughly one in six (15.5%) mortgaged U.S. home sales used an FHA loan in February, up from 14.9% a year earlier and just shy of the 16.3% four-year high hit a month earlier. FHA loans are more common than they were during the pandemic homebuying boom (they represented 12.1% of mortgaged sales in February 2022) because the market today is less competitive. Roughly one in 14 (7%) mortgaged home sales used a VA loan in February, down from 8% a year earlier. The share of home sales using a VA loan typically doesn’t change much over time, though it fluctuated more than usual during the topsy-turvy pandemic market. Conventional loans are the most common type, representing over three-quarters (77.5%) of mortgaged home sales in February, up slightly from 77.1% a year earlier. Jumbo loans—used for higher loan amounts and popular among luxury buyers—represented 5.3% of mortgaged sales, compared with 4.7% a year earlier. Metros with biggest increases/decreases in down payment amounts In Las Vegas, the median down payment jumped 60.9% year over year—the largest increase among the metros Redfin analyzed. Next came San Diego (49.8%), Charlotte, NC (47.4%), Virginia Beach, VA (45%) and Newark, NJ (32.2%). Down payments only fell in two metros: Milwaukee (-13.9%) and Pittsburgh (-0.4%). Metros with highest/lowest down payment percentages In San Francisco, the median down payment was equal to 25% of the purchase price—the highest among the metros Redfin analyzed. It was followed by San Jose, CA (24.9%) and Anaheim, CA (21.9%). The following metros all had median down payments of 20%: Fort Lauderdale, FL, Los Angeles, Miami, Montgomery County, PA, New Brunswick, NJ, New York, Oakland, CA, Sacramento, CA, San Diego, Seattle and West Palm Beach, FL. Down payment percentages were lowest in Virginia Beach (1.8%), Detroit (5%), Pittsburgh (5%), Baltimore (5%) and Philadelphia (7.3%). While the Bay Area has among the most expensive home prices, it also has a high concentration of wealthy residents, many of whom can afford large down payments. Meanwhile, Virginia Beach is at the bottom of the list because it has a high concentration of veterans, many of whom take

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HOME AFFORDABILITY IMPROVES SLIGHTLY DURING FIRST QUARTER BUT REMAINS DIFFICULT FOR AVERAGE WORKERS

Major Home-Ownership Expenses Require Smaller Portion of Wages for Second-Straight Quarter; Historical Affordability Also Inches Upward; But Both Measures Remain Near Worst Levels in 15 Years as Home Prices Stay Close to All-Time Highs ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property, and real estate data, released its first-quarter 2024 U.S. Home Affordability Report showing that median-priced single-family homes and condos remain less affordable in the first quarter of 2024 compared to historical averages in more than 95 percent of counties around the nation with enough data to analyze. The latest trend continues a pattern, dating back to 2022, of home ownership requiring historically large portions of wages around the country. The report also shows that major expenses on median-priced homes consume 32.3 percent of the average national wage in the first quarter, several points above common lending guidelines. Both measures represent slight quarterly improvements but remain worse than a year ago and still sit at levels that have worked against home buyers for three years. That scenario has continued as increases in home values and major home-ownership expenses have outpaced gains in wages, despite a small respite from the second half of last year into the first quarter of 2024. As a result, the portion of average wages nationwide required for typical mortgage payments, property taxes and insurance remains up almost three percentage points from a year ago and 11 points from early in 2021, right before home-mortgage rates began shooting up from their lowest levels in decades. The latest expense-to-wage ratio continues to sit above the 28 percent level preferred by mortgage lenders and marks one the highest points over the past decade. “The picture for home buyers is brightening a little again as affordability measures have improved for the second quarter in a row,” said Rob Barber, CEO for ATTOM. “For sure, it’s not like things are coming up roses for house hunters. Affording a home remains a financial stretch, or a pipe dream, for so many households. But with mortgage rates coming down and home prices growing only by modest amounts, it’s gotten a bit easier for average wage earners to afford a home so far this year. The upcoming Spring buying season will say a lot about whether home prices remain stable enough for this trend to continue.” The first-quarter patterns come as the national median home price has risen less than 2 percent this quarter from the previous quarter and is still down from peaks hit last year. Further aiding buyers are mortgage rates that have dipped back down below 7 percent for a 30-year fixed loan after rising close to 8 percent in 2023. Inflation, while still running close to 4 percent, is less than half the levels hit in 2021. Those factors have helped reduce home ownership expenses following a period when they were shooting up faster than wages. The report determined affordability for average wage earners by calculating the amount of income needed to meet major monthly home ownership expenses — including mortgage payments, property taxes and insurance — on a median-priced single-family home, assuming a 20 percent down payment and a 28 percent maximum “front-end” debt-to-income ratio. That required income was then compared to annualized average weekly wage data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Compared to historical levels, median home ownership costs in 577 of the 590 counties analyzed in the first quarter of 2024 are less affordable than in the past. That number is down slightly from 584 of the same counties in the fourth quarter of last year but up from 549 in the first quarter of last year, and more than 10 times the figure from early 2021. Meanwhile, the portion of average local wages consumed by major home-ownership expenses on typical homes is considered unaffordable during the first quarter of 2024 in 425, or 72 percent, of the 590 counties in the report, based on the 28 percent guideline. Counties with the largest populations that are unaffordable in the first quarter are Los Angeles County, CA; Maricopa County (Phoenix), AZ; San Diego County, CA; Orange County, CA (outside Los Angeles) and Miami-Dade County, FL. The most populous of the 165 counties where major expenses on median-priced homes are still affordable for average local workers in the first quarter of 2024 are Cook County (Chicago), IL; Harris County (Houston), TX; Wayne County (Detroit), MI; Philadelphia County, PA, and Oakland County, MI (outside Detroit). View Q1 2024 U.S. Home Affordability Heat Map  National median home price up quarterly but still down annually, with declines throughout nation The national median price for single-family homes and condos has grown to $336,250 in the first quarter of 2024, just $9,000 less than the all-time high of $345,000 hit several times in the past two years. The latest figure is up 1.9 percent from $330,000 in the fourth quarter of 2023 and up 5.1 percent from $319,900 in the first quarter of last year. Data was analyzed for counties with a population of at least 100,000 and at least 50 single-family home and condo sales in the first quarter of 2024. Among the 46 counties in the report with a population of at least 1 million, the biggest year-over-year increases in median prices during the first quarter of 2024 are in Orange County, CA (outside Los Angeles) (up 14.6 percent); Santa Clara County (San Jose), CA (up 10.3 percent); Palm Beach County (West Palm Beach), FL (up 9.9 percent); Nassau County, NY (outside New York City) (up 8.9 percent) and Miami-Dade County, FL (up 8.7 percent). Counties with a population of at least 1 million where median prices remain down the most from the first quarter of 2023 to the same period this year are Travis County (Austin), TX (down 8.1 percent); New York County (Manhattan), NY (down 7.9 percent); Bexar County (San Antonio), TX (down 3.8 percent); Tarrant County (Forth Worth), TX (down 3.2 percent) and Alameda County (Oakland), CA (down 2.5 percent). Prices growing faster than wages in half the U.S. With home values mostly up annually throughout the U.S., year-over-year price changes are outpacing changes in weekly annualized wages during the early months of 2024 in 358, or 60.7 percent, of the counties analyzed in the report. The current group of counties where prices are increasing more than wages annually, or decreasing

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Risk Management & Insuring Your Success in Real Estate

Ryan Letzeiser is the CEO and co-founder of Obie Insurance, a company that provides insurance technology solutions for landlords in the single-family rental space. He has a background in real estate investing and that’s what got him into the insurance industry, to help real estate investors better protect themselves and their assets. Listen now to learn more about the story behind Obie Insurance, what they want to help real estate investors with, and what it takes to find success as an entrepreneur today! Quotables “You have to find a way to be okay with making that pivot, knowing that that is the direction your customers are telling you to go, rather than you trying to force something out of that.” “You can’t do it all on your own and you have to empower people to make decisions on your behalf and the only way you can do that is by finding top of the line talent.” “We want to make sure that we’re staying tried and true, that way we’re here for the long haul and not for a short range.” Links Website: RCN Capital https://www.rcncapital.com/podcast Website: REI INK https://rei-ink.com/

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