Market Report
How Real Estate Will Surprise Us in 2024 By Carole VanSickle Ellis At the start of 2023, many real estate analysts expected the year to bring a “return to normal” for real estate the same way many Americans had hoped for a “return to normal” following the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns in previous years. However, as the year progressed, real estate trends clearly showed “normal” might not look quite the way it used to, and many predictions fell short or completely awry of reality by the fourth quarter of the year. For example, in February 2023, the industry was rife with predictions that the number of homes for sale nationally would rise by nearly 23% by the end of this year due to longer times on market, but instead, home sales fell by just over 22% during the first half of the year; inventory remained incredibly tight in most markets, and properties listed continued to sell within about 20 days (national average). Only about a quarter of listed real estate remained on the market for more than a month. In 2023, the only truly predictable element about the market remained, as always, that real estate investors would figure out new and innovative ways to generate returns in the sector and that the post-pandemic world would be largely unpredictable. “Investors have to remember that the real estate market is a dynamic entity that is constantly evolving in response to economic, social, and environmental factors,” said Gary Harper, CEO of business coaching and consulting firm Sharper Business Solutions. “Adapting to change is crucial for success,” said Harper, who specializes in in systems and process management and has been investing in real estate since 2004. “People kept using the word ‘reset’ [in 2022], and it was a good word but it does not mean exactly what it used to,” said Bruce McNeilage, co-founder and CEO of Kinloch Partners and Kinloch Homes. “Things can turn extremely quickly, and investors have to always be on the lookout for the next market where their numbers make sense and where you can get the best margins.” At the start of 2023, McNeilage’s build-to-rent (BTR) development company was moving into tertiary markets where the competition was not quite as steep and land and labor remained relatively affordable. He expects to see most of his inventory sell to other investors in these markets within five years due to an ongoing lack of attractive housing inventory. “The market for renters and homeowners has changed,” he explained. “People want larger homes with five bedrooms so there is room for remote work and other things that they did not require in a home pre-pandemic. Today, we are almost exclusively building four- and five-bedroom properties in our neighborhoods because that is what people want to rent.” Rising Interest Rates & a Noncommittal Fed Make Traditional Homebuying Difficult In November 2023, many experts happily predicted that two interest-rate-hike pauses in a row from the Federal Reserve could mean that rising interest rates could finally be at an end. If this were the case, many homebuyers hope interest rates might start to fall again soon in order to render homes more affordable. In reality, however, a pause in rate hikes does not mean a return to affordability any time in the near future. As Keith Gumbinger, vice president at mortgage website HSH.com, told Forbes in November, “While not meaningless, another quarter-point hike at this point will not change the big picture much as a lot of the ‘damage’ from higher interest rates is either done or already in process.” He emphasized rate cuts are the key to substantial reversals in problematic trends in housing affordability for buyers. As usual, the Fed remains relatively tight-lipped about its plans for 2024, although many policy-trackers say they believe further tightening is probable in the coming year. Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed, described the process of deciding what to announce or “telegraph” to the public about Fed plans and policies “the hardest phase of policymaking” because, as she described it, “When you do not know exactly what will be needed, it is not actually a terrific idea to telegraph one thing or the other…. I don’t want to be in a position where we have said definitively we are not going to do X, and then X is needed.” “We anticipate that rate decreases could encourage buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines to enter the market because they are attracted by the idea of lower interest rates,” Harper chimed in. However, he noted, more buyers will certainly create even tighter inventory environments in many markets. At present, the Fed does not appear likely to lower interest rates even if it continues to hold on raising them, and investors implementing creative financing strategies that enable them to make higher offers, close quickly, or offer accessible borrowing terms to would-be retail buyers will likely find themselves in high demand in 2024 regardless of how the interest-rate conundrum resolves. Dennis Cisterna, co-founder and CIO of Sentinel Net Lease, believes interest rates will remain firmly in place in 2024 despite other analysts’ predictions to the contrary. “It is going to make 2024 an incredibly slow year,” he said. “There is just too much demand and not enough product.” Christopher O’Neal, an investor, coach, and agent based in Virginia, warned that devaluation of the dollar in 2024 could also represent a curveball for every facet of the market. Since the end of World War II, the U.S. dollar has been the world’s principal reserve currency, but ongoing global conflicts in which the United States has played a role via sanctions, financial and military support, diplomacy, or some combination of these has led some countries to begin what the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), a nonpartisan think tank and publishing house founded in 1921, described in a July 2023 report as “de-dollarization” in order to preemptively counteract sanctions and their indirect fallout. Although CFR analysts stated firmly they believe it
Read More