February 2023 – Page 4

REDFIN REPORTS $2,500 MONTHLY BUDGET BUYS A $400,000 HOME AS RATES DIP BELOW 6%

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Home sellers are starting to come off the sidelines to meet buyer demand as mortgage rates steadily decline, with new listings and pending sales both posting their smallest drops in four months A homebuyer on a $2,500 monthly budget can afford a $400,000 home for the first time in four months as mortgage rates dip below 6%, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. The average daily mortgage rate came in at 5.99% on February 2, the first sub-6% average since mid-September, according to Mortgage News Daily. To look at the change in affordability another way, a buyer with a $2,500 monthly budget can afford to spend about $35,000 more on a home than they could have when rates peaked at over 7% in November. A buyer on that budget still has about $95,000 less in spending power than they did a year ago, when rates were sitting around 3.5%. But rates dropping by more than a full percentage point from their apex is a relief for buyers who had been waiting for rates to come down. Some of those buyers are returning to the market. Pending home sales fell 23% from a year earlier during the four weeks ending January 29, the smallest decline since September and a notable improvement from the November trough, when pending sales declined 33% annually. Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index—a measure of requests for tours and other services from Redfin agents—is up 19% from the October low. The market feels hotter, too, with 37% of newly listed homes accepting an offer within two weeks of hitting the market, the highest level since July. Home sellers are also starting to come off the sidelines. New listings of homes for sale declined 17% year over year—a significant decline, but the smallest one in over four months and an improvement from the December trough, when new listings dropped 24% annually. “We expect more homebuyers and sellers to gradually return to the market by springtime, but mixed economic news and mixed reactions from the market mean the recovery will be uneven,” said Redfin Economics Research Lead Chen Zhao. “The Fed’s interest-rate hike this week, for example, is both promising and disappointing. The Fed hiked rates at a slower pace than last year, which means mortgage rates are unlikely to rise further. But it also signaled ongoing rate increases to fight inflation, which will likely prevent the steep mortgage-rate decline that some optimistic buyers have been waiting for.” Mortgage-purchase applications rose 15% from their early-November trough but declined 10% from a week earlier, which could reflect the touch-and-go nature of the housing market recovery. It’s worth noting that it’s hard to draw a strong conclusion from this week’s decline because the mortgage purchase application index has been volatile the past few weeks. Leading indicators of homebuying activity: Key housing market takeaways for 400+ U.S. metro areas: Unless otherwise noted, this data covers the four-week period ending January 29. Redfin’s weekly housing market data goes back through 2015. To view the full report, including charts, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-mortgage-rates-decline-pending-sales-improve

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Nearly Half of Mortgaged Homes Remain Equity-Rich but Portion Dips Slightly;Seriously Underwater Level of Mortgages Unchanged at Just Below 3 Percent;Sixteen Times as Many Mortgages are Equity Rich Versus Seriously Underwater ATTOM, a leading curator of real estate data nationwide for land and property data, released its fourth-quarter 2022 U.S. Home Equity & Underwater Report, which shows that 48 percent of mortgaged residential properties in the United States were considered equity-rich in the fourth quarter, meaning that the combined estimated amount of loan balances secured by those properties was no more than 50 percent of their estimated market values. The portion of mortgaged homes that was equity-rich in the fourth quarter of 2022 declined slightly from 48.5 percent in the third quarter of 2022, but was still up from 41.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021. While the equity-rich levels nationwide remain nearly double what it was three years ago, the drop-off in the last three months of 2022 reversed a string of 10 straight quarterly gains. The report found that the portion of equity-rich mortgage-payers went down from the third to the fourth quarter of 2022 in 31 states around the U.S. The dip marked one of the first signs of how a recent fall in home prices across the country has started to affect homeowners following a decade-long market boom. Despite the new pattern in equity-rich mortgages, however, the report also shows that just 2.9 percent of mortgaged homes, or one in 34, were considered seriously underwater in the fourth quarter of 2022. That meant that they had a combined estimated balance of loans secured by the property of at least 25 percent more than the property’s estimated market value. The latest seriously underwater figure was unchanged from 2.9 percent in the prior quarter, and was still down from 3.1 percent, or one in 32 properties, in the fourth quarter of 2021. Overall, 94.1 percent of homeowners paying off mortgages had at least some equity built up in their properties during the fourth quarter of last year. That also represented a slight decrease from 94.3 in the prior quarter, while still up from 93.5 percent a year earlier and 88.8 percent in late 2020. The portion of homeowners with equity rises further when accounting for homeowners who have paid off their home loans. “Dents are beginning to surface in the armor around the U.S. housing market after 11 years of a strong showing for owners,” said Rob Barber, CEO for ATTOM. “Home values have been dropping since the middle of last year, which appears to be starting to cut into homeowner equity around the country. That’s probably happening because values are sinking faster than owners are paying off their mortgages. How that shakes out over the next few months will depend on a lot of factors, including where interest rates go. But for now, it looks like the runup in wealth flowing from owning homes has stalled along with the market.” Largest decline in equity-rich share of mortgages spread across WestThe portion of equity-rich mortgages changed mostly by small amounts in different states from the third to the fourth quarter of 2022 – commonly by less than two percentage points. But the biggest drops were all in the West, following earlier quarters that saw larger gains in that region than elsewhere in the country. The fourth-quarter declines were led by Idaho (portion of mortgages homes considered equity-rich decreased from 65.8 percent in the third quarter of 2022 to 61.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022), Arizona (down from 63.4 percent to 59.9 percent), Nevada (down from 55.8 percent to 52.3 percent), Washington (down from 61 percent to 58.5 percent) and Oregon (down from 55 percent to 53.2 percent). At the other end of the spectrum, the South had five of the top 10 states where the equity-rich share of mortgaged homes increased the most from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of 2022. The largest increases were in Montana (up from 51.5 percent to 58 percent), Kansas (up from 34 percent to 37 percent), Delaware (up from 34.2 percent to 35.9 percent), Mississippi (up from 31.5 percent to 33.2 percent) and Arkansas (up from 36.6 percent to 38 percent). Small increases in seriously underwater mortgages clustered in WestWhile the portion of mortgage homes considered seriously underwater remained historically low in the fourth quarter of 2022 in most of the nation, the largest increases were clustered in the West. The top increases were in Missouri (share of mortgaged homes that were seriously underwater up from 5.2 percent in the third quarter of 2022 to 7.1 percent in the fourth quarter), Hawaii (up from 1.5 percent to 2 percent), Idaho (up from 1.9 percent to 2.2 percent), New Mexico (up from 2.7 percent to 3 percent) and Wyoming (up from 2.9 percent to 3.2 percent). States where the percentage of seriously underwater homes decreased the most from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of last year were Mississippi (down from 9 percent to 6.8 percent), Delaware (down from 3.9 percent to 3 percent), Montana (down from 3 percent to 2.2 percent), Kansas (down from 4.9 percent to 4.3 percent) and Arkansas (down from 5.6 percent to 5.2 percent). Equity-rich homeowners still concentrated in WestDespite seeing some of the largest decreases in equity-rich percentages, the West still had the highest levels of such properties around the U.S. in the fourth quarter of 2022, with seven of the top 10 states. Those with the highest portions were Vermont (76.6 percent of mortgaged homes were equity-rich), Florida (62.2 percent), Idaho (61.6 percent), California (61.5 percent) and Utah (60.3 percent). Nine of the 10 states with the lowest percentages of equity-rich properties in the fourth quarter of 2022 were in the Midwest and South. They were led by Louisiana (24.5 percent of mortgaged homes were equity-rich), Illinois (26.2 percent), Alaska (27.1 percent), West Virginia (30.1 percent) and Iowa (30.9 percent). Among 107 metropolitan statistical areas around the nation with a population greater than 500,000, the West and South again dominated the list of places with the highest portion of mortgaged properties that were equity-rich in the fourth quarter of 2022. All but one of the top 25 were in those regions, led by San Jose, CA (73.8 percent equity-rich); Sarasota-Bradenton, FL (70.5 percent); Fort Myers, FL (67.8 percent); San Francisco, CA (66.5 percent) and Los Angeles, CA (66.3 percent). The leader in the Northeast

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Buyers are entering a calmer housing market, but with little incentive for homeowners with sub 3% mortgage rates to sell and 50 of the 100 largest markets expected to see inventory declines, they will continue to have a limited number of homes to choose from. Shoppers with some flexibility in terms of when and where they purchase may have a better chance of finding a home, according to the Knock Buyer-Seller Market Index. According to the Index, which analyzes key housing market metrics to measure the degree to which the nation’s 100 largest markets favor home buyers or sellers, the housing market has shifted dramatically over the past 12 months when none of the markets tracked favored buyers. In December 2022, 13 markets favored buyers, 43 were neutral, not favoring buyers or sellers, and 44 favored sellers. Despite a slight increase in home prices (+0.7%) from December 2021, homes sold at a lower price than the asking price in all but six of the 100 largest markets – Buffalo, N.Y.; Hartford, Conn.; New Haven, Conn.; Rochester, N.Y.; Springfield, Mass. and Syracuse, N.Y. Median days on the market increased to 29, a full two weeks longer than a year ago. At year-end, there were a total of 354,000 homes for sale, an increase of 32.1% year over year, primarily as a result of falling sales, not the addition of new listings. “We expect 2023 to bring more balance to the housing market, which is certainly good news for buyers following three years of intense competition. At the same time, with inventory down nearly 42% from the start of the pandemic and no real incentive for sellers to move, finding a home you both like and can afford will remain a challenge,” said Knock Co-Founder and CEO Sean Black. “Those buyers with flexibility on where and when to move have an opportunity to find more homes for sale in some of the nation’s largest and most desirable housing markets beginning in the fall.” The 10 markets where buyers will see more choicesIf one thing is true about 2023, it’s that buyers will experience different scenarios based on their location. While inventory is expected to increase 17% across the nation, the number of homes available for sale is expected to decline in half of the largest 100 markets. To find where it might be easier to buy, Knock looked at the markets where inventory is forecast to increase the most and when buyers will have the most options. The top 10 markets likely to see the biggest gains in for-sale homes in 2023 in rank order are: Salt Lake City; Dallas, Denver; Charlotte, N.C.; Memphis, Tenn.; Las Vegas; Charleston, S.C.; Colorado Springs, Colo; St. Louis and New Orleans. Inventory in these markets is forecast to increase throughout 2023, peaking in September, October and November. This means there will be more choices for buyers with flexibility to wait until the fall. Inventory in the Top 10 markets reached all-time lows during the pandemic. However, they did not see the same massive declines as the rest of the nation. In the three top markets – Salt Lake City, Dallas and Denver – inventory declined by approximately 20.3%, 34.3% and 19.9%, respectively, between December 2019 and December 2022. This is lower than the 42% decline seen nationwide. Although low housing inventory has led to record-high home prices over the past several years, the forecasted inventory growth in these markets won’t necessarily translate into home price declines. Only three of the markets – Salt Lake City, Las Vegas and New Orleans – are forecast to see price declines over the next 12 months. Six are projected to see prices rise with the median home price in St. Louis forecast to increase nearly 10% year-over-year. Currently, only three of these markets – Colorado Springs, Colo., Dallas and Las Vegas – favor buyers. By the second half of 2023, all but St. Louis, which will be in neutral territory, will favor buyers. Markets forecast to see the largest inventory gains Rank Market ProjectedYOYinventorygrowth Mediansale price Projectedsale pricechange Month inventorywill peak Currentmarketstatus National 17.1 % $365,000 -4.0 % September Neutral 1 Salt Lake City, Utah 178.0 % $460,000 -17.0 % October Neutral 2 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas 100.4 % $375,831 6.3 % October Favors Buyers 3 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo. 95.1 % $550,000 4.8 % September Neutral 4 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia,N.C.-S.C. 81.8 % $349,000 7.9 % December Neutral 5 Memphis, Tenn.-Miss.-Ark. 48.2 % $255,000 0.3 % November Neutral 6 Las Vegas- Henderson-Paradise, Nev. 39.6 % $382,000 -6.8 % September Favors Buyers 7 Charleston-North Charleston, S.C. 39.3 % $362,500 0.0 % September Neutral 8 Colorado Springs, Colo. 38.0 % $430,000 0.5 % September Favors Buyers 9 St. Louis, Mo.-Ill. 35.8 % $230,000 9.8 % September Favors Sellers 10 New Orleans- Metairie, La. 34.2 % $270,424 -0.1 % October Neutral Buyers expected to return with seasonal force in spring, creating a window for sellersThe housing market will likely return to more seasonal patterns in 2023 – shifting toward sellers in the spring before moving firmly into buyer market territory by summer where it will remain through year-end. By December 2023, 34 markets are forecast to be buyers’ markets (up from 13 in December 2022), 34 markets will remain sellers’ markets (down from 44) and 32 will be neutral. Inventory constraints will keep home prices from falling significantly. Just 16 of the nation’s 100 largest markets are expected to see home price declines. In contrast, the forecast calls for median sale price increases of at least 10% in 20 markets during the same time frame. Home prices are forecast to peak at $366,000 by June 2023 – well below the record-breaking annual median sale price peak of $410,000 set in April, May and June 2022. By December, the median price is forecast to be $351,000, a 4% decline from $365,000 year-over-year. Home sales are forecast to decline by 10.5% year over year, with the number of home sales declining in 75 markets. Median days on market are forecast to increase to 52 days by year-end — the longest of any time since January 2017. Raleigh, N.C. and Greeley, Colo., are expected to lead the nation in days on market at 130 and 104 days, respectively. The sale-to-ask price ratio is forecast to hover between 2-3% below list price through spring. It will begin to decline in August, ending the year down 4%, the lowest since January 2017, the beginning of Knock’s Buyer-Seller Market Index. To view the full report, including

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S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released for November 2022 show that home price gains declined across the United States. More than 27 years of history are available for the data series and can be accessed in full by going to: https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller/ YEAR-OVER-YEAR The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 7.7% annual gain in November, down from 9.2% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 6.3%, down from 8.0% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 6.8% year-over-year gain, down from 8.6% in the previous month. Miami, Tampa, and Atlanta reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in November. Miami led the way with a 18.4% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa in second with a 16.9% increase, and Atlanta in third with a 12.7% increase. All 20 cities reported lower price increases in the year ending November 2022 versus the year ending October 2022. MONTH-OVER-MONTH Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a -0.6% month-over-month decrease in November, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted decreases of -0.7% and -0.8%, respectively. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month decrease of -0.3%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted decreases of -0.5%. In November, all 20 cities reported declines before seasonal adjustments. After seasonal adjustments, 19 cities reported declines, with only Detroit increasing 0.1%. ANALYSIS “November 2022 marked the fifth consecutive month of declining home prices in the U.S.,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “For example, the National Composite Index fell -0.6% for the month, reflecting a -3.6% decline since the market peaked in June 2022. We saw comparable patterns in our 10- and 20-City Composites, both of which stand more than -5.0% below their June peaks. These declines, of course, came after very strong price increases in late 2021 and the first half of 2022. Despite its recent weakness, on a year-over-year basis the National Composite gained 7.7%, which is in the 74th percentile of historical performance levels. “All 20 cities in our November report showed price declines on a month-over-month basis, with a median decline of -0.8%. Moreover, for all 20 cities, year-over-year gains in November were lower than those of October, with a median year-over-year increase of 6.4%. Interestingly, home prices in San Francisco were down by -1.6% year-over-year, the first negative result for any city since San Francisco’s -0.4% decline in October 2019. This is the worst year-over-year result for San Francisco in more than 10 years (since a -3.0% result in March 2012). West coast weakness was not limited to California, as San Francisco was followed by Seattle (+1.5%) and Portland (+3.9%) at the bottom of the league table. “In contrast, November’s best-performing cities were clustered in the Southeast. Miami (+18.4%) was the best performer, followed by Tampa (+16.9%). November is the eighth consecutive month that one of our Florida cities has been the national leader. The month’s bronze medal went to Atlanta (+12.7%), narrowly edging out Charlotte (+12.6%). Unsurprisingly, the Southeast (+15.1%) and South (+14.3%) were the strongest regions and the West (+4.0%) was the weakest. “As the Federal Reserve moves interest rates higher, mortgage financing continues to be a headwind for home prices. Economic weakness, including the possibility of a recession, would also constrain potential buyers. Given these prospects for a challenging macroeconomic environment, home prices may well continue to weaken.” For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please visit https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/.

apartments by marriott bonvoy

by Carole VanSickle Ellis
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A New Innovation to Meet the Changing Needs of the Traveling Public By Carole VanSickle Ellis Almost 100 years ago, Marriott International began not as an international chain of hotel brands and bespoke service providers but, instead, as a small A&W root beer stand owned and operated in Washington, D.C., by founder J. Willard Marriott, Sr., and his wife, Alice. Over time, that company grew to include the East Coast’s first drive-in restaurant, the world’s first in-flight catering service, and, in 1957, a monumental shift into the hotel business in Arlington, Virginia. Today, the company is poised for another strategic expansion — this time into the serviced-apartment concept in the United States and Canada. Serviced apartments are fully furnished apartments available for short- or long-term stays, depending on the preference of the service provider. For Marriott, this shift is not really as monumental as it might first appear. The company has 26 years of experience with Marriott Executive Apartments operating in Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. Apartments by Marriott Bonvoy is simply the next link in the chain. “We are always peeking around the corner, looking for opportunities for our company to grow and serve the traveling public in new ways,” said Noah Silverman, Marriott International’s global development officer for the U.S. and Canada. Silverman explained that the company has been tracking the travel preferences of today’s “digital nomads,” remote employees and freelancers who are location-independent and use technology to perform their jobs from anywhere, as well as consumers who are increasingly combining business and leisure travel. Since the advent of COVID-19 in early 2020, the concept of being able to work from anywhere has expanded into the mainstream, with entire families engaging in longer-term stays in intriguing locations. “Customer preferences have evolved as the digital nomad has grown up, and workplace requirements have evolved to allow people to work from locations other than their office,” Silverman continued. “We have also seen a significant increase in leisure travel and extended families all traveling together. This new product will meet the needs of that growing population, one that is looking for more space and the ability to park themselves for longer periods in a larger, residential-style apartment versus a traditional hotel room.” Paul Loehr, the company’s regional vice president of full service brands in the U.S. West Region, called Apartments by Marriott Bonvoy a “unique opportunity” not just for travelers, but also for real estate investors and developers to partner with Marriott in a new way. “We are already fielding many phone calls from developers and potential partners who have specific projects in mind that they feel are an ideal fit for the concept,” Loehr said. He added, “There has been incredible interest in the offering from parties ranging from existing hotel partners who increasingly see value in the serviced apartment space to traditional apartment developers.” Lisa Sexton, regional vice president of full service brands for the U.S. East Region, called the response to the initial announcement “incredible.” She explained, “It is not limited to one type of market or catering to one type of traveler over another.” All three agreed that the prevailing drivers of interest in this new offering are rooted in the Marriott brand itself and the potential for Apartments by Marriott Bonvoy operators to customize the projects to fit the needs of the development and the local market. “As a brand partner, we are able to deliver higher-rate premiums at lower cost than when developers do things on their own,” Silverman explained. “The product is appealing because of the reputational endorsement that comes with being part of the Marriott Bonvoy portfolio of brands, the significant advantage of our large-scale distribution platform, and our 170-million-plus members loyalty program.” Loehr emphasized that Marriott prioritizes developer and investor returns in a variety of ways early in the development process as well as once the doors of a new facility open. “We review each application carefully to make sure that the location and type of product will work together to optimize the partners’ chances of financial success,” he said. This means being willing to ask tough questions early on. “We ask about rates, revenues, and costs to build,” Loehr explained, noting that specific urban and secondary markets are well-suited for Apartments by Marriott Bonvoy. Expanding the Pool of Owners and Franchisees When Marriott first began considering the idea of premium-tier serviced apartments in the United States and Canada, the company was primarily considering how to meet a new and growing customer preference while expanding its pool of owners and franchisees. Silverman explained that they expected to attract primarily hotel owners seeking to diversify their existing holdings, and that expectation has proved valid. However, he continued, there has been substantial interest from the multifamily development community as well, even though that group of owners/investors previously focused almost exclusively on traditional, long-term rentals. “An increasing number of the investors expressing interest are hotel developers who are thinking about adding a few floors to a planned building or developing an entire building for short-term rentals,” Silverman said. “If you are one of these developers or a multifamily developer looking to move into this space, Apartments by Marriott Bonvoy should be considered. Our system can reliably deliver customers in a cost-effective way, and we think savvy investors are seeing that and responding to it.” Silverman continued, “Previously, in the United States and Canada, our extended stay brand offerings topped out in the upscale quality tier with Residence Inn by Marriott and Element by Westin. Those are unbelievably powerful and successful hotel brands, but we believe there is a higher-end consumer willing to pay more for a truly differentiated, premium and luxury product, and that is what Apartments by Marriott Bonvoy will be.” Loehr noted that many parties expressing interest in the offering have specific developments already underway that could incorporate the Apartments by Marriott Bonvoy concept. “The developer will create a unique brand for the project and deliver an attractive