2021 – Page 54

Risk Mitigation and Due Diligence in the Pandemic

by Erika Garcia
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What Investors Must Do to Ensure Favorable Outcomes and Future Earnings by Erika Garcia It is vital to fully understand the risks and rewards of real estate investment during our current economic decline caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Investing in real estate can provide the potential for a stable income stream and value appreciation, along with generous tax benefits. However, real estate investors must recognize that the pandemic may impact where people work, spend their money, and the location they choose to live. The pandemic has impacted investment property types differently. Commercial properties such as hotels, restaurants, gyms, etc., have taken the bulk of the hit. At the same time, residential properties are now more in demand than before the pandemic. Due to the coronavirus, renters in high-rise condominiums started looking toward renting single-family homes. This is clearly fueled by people wanting to remove themselves from the overly crowded markets and living conditions. The coronavirus has led society to yearn for more private outdoor spaces, distance between household members, and more room for all to enjoy and feel comfortable amidst this pandemic, thus creating an increase in demand for single-family rentals. Increased Demand for SFR Inventory Even though the SFR market was strong before the coronavirus pandemic, it seems the demand for inventory has only grown stronger. The increased demand for SFR’s persists due to the lack of new single-family rentals and a decrease in rental turnover. So, to meet demand, investors must remain steadfast in their due diligence efforts and avoid the allure of quick turnaround and shortsighted due diligence. While the need for standard procedures and reviews are necessary to ensure the right fit, price, and returns, today’s market, one fueled by the coronavirus pandemic, requires a due diligence process that may look and feel a bit different. Due diligence requires investors to look at: Strong Population in Migration Low Unemployment Rate Hybrid of Physical and Virtual Site Visits Comprehensive Inspections and Appraisals While Maintaining Mandated Health and Safety Precautions Alongside these tried-and-true guidelines, there are several other factors investors must look into and investigate to ensure favorable outcomes and future earnings. Today’s markets see potential buyers and renters moving all over the country for various reasons. The new “remote working” or “hybrid” work approach has changed people’s approach on managing their day-to-day lives. This, in turn, changes where people live and how they live. Factors such as unemployment, rentability, population density, demographics, and their purchase/rent buying power must be viewed through today’s lens and are crucial to making great real estate investments. These will be vital factors in the future of single-family rentals and other investment properties. As the pandemic continues to have a significant impact on the economy, real estate investors are challenged with navigating the effects of portfolio performance. It is increasingly essential to ensure that portfolios yield the most significant possible results by invigorating portfolios with newly vetted real estate investment and placing greater emphasis on the risks of those portfolios given the current landscape. Four main categories are crucial to risk mitigation. Diversification by Asset Type Diversification by Geography Avoidance of High Rent Asset Types Tax Benefits of Real Estate Investing Diversify by Asset Type Diversification of their real estate portfolios by asset type will help avoid the risk of over-concentration in one particular category of property. Diversify by Geography Diversification of their real estate portfolios across different cities and states will alleviate the risk of over-concentration in a particular market. Specifically, keeping an eye out for cities and states with lower unemployment levels. Avoid High Rent Asset Types The real estate market is continually changing. As we see today, any pandemic, economic circumstance, financial condition, and supply and demand will all impact the capability of profit of a real estate investment at a given time. Keeping an eye out on market rent and staying within the “affordable” range would be vital in avoiding high turnover or vacant properties. Tax Benefits of Real Estate Investing Real estate is one of the most tax-advantaged types of investment in the US. Deductions for depreciation are available to all investors. Moreover, some direct real estate investments may qualify for like-kind exchange treatment, known as 1031 Exchange. This can save investors up to 40% on their tax bills when net gains are on property sales. Now more than ever, investors must look for new and innovative ways to build diverse and profitable portfolios. Through the uncertainty of the coronavirus pandemic, the impact on different real estate asset types is unknown. It can be essential to enlist the services of professional real estate asset managers who can help develop defensive market strategies aimed at preserving cash flow while positioning assets and portfolios for future market opportunities.

Rental Property Risk Management

by Shaun Shenouda
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Preventative Measures for Successful Risk Mitigation by Shaun Shenouda While there is no stopping acts of God, you fortunately can mitigate many of the risks pertaining to your rental properties relatively easily and inexpensively. As you might suspect, some of the most prevalent risks pertain to losses caused by the residents. Given the increased propensity to spend more time at home due to COVID-19, there is an overall increased risk. Proactively taking steps to evaluate those risks and putting best practices in place to minimize those risks could save your rental property as well as lives! Fire! According to the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA), there were 340K house fires in 2019 (26 percent) resulting in 2,770 civilian fire deaths (75 percent); 12,200 civilian injuries (73 percent), and $7.8 billion in direct property damage (52 percent). Over the past three years, house fires have resulted in 40% of SES Risk Solutions overall losses which sustained an average loss of $70K per fire. We have also seen an uptick in frequency due to more people working from home, overloading their outlets, cooking fires, etc. WIRING Nearly 1/3 of the properties we insure were built in the 1960s and 70s, which coincidentally is when aluminum wiring was often used as opposed to the more expensive and higher performing copper wiring. Aluminum conducts electricity safely. It’s the connections that pose the most issues. According to the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC), homes with aluminum wiring are 55 times more likely to have “fire hazard conditions” than homes wired with copper. Since permit data is often incomplete and/or unavailable, our investors do not always have easy access to determine if the wiring has since been updated. Solution: Engage with a professional contractor to inspect the property(s) to determine if the wiring has since been updated. Our research suggests the cost to be between $1500-$3000 to upgrade, if needed. FIRE EXTINGUISHERS Another highly effective and affordable best practice is equipping all your rental properties with a fire extinguisher. In a study performed by FETA (Fire Extinguishing Trades Association) where it recorded over 2,600 incidents, they concluded that in 81.5% of cases the portable extinguisher successfully extinguished the fire and in 74.6% of the cases the fire department was not required to attend. Despite the effectiveness, according to the PEMCO Insurance Northwest Poll, 27 percent of Northwest residents live without a fire extinguisher in their home. The poll suggests that among the most at-risk are renters, who are significantly less likely than homeowners to have fire extinguishers—58 percent of renters vs. 82 percent of homeowners. Solution: Generally, fire extinguishers are around $20. While they are easy to use, they will only be used if they are easily accessible. They also have a shelf life, so it is important to implement a recurring replacement process. We also recommend incorporating the location of the fire extinguishers and how to use them into your property management process. SMART HOME DEVICES Despite marketing advantages, better tenant satisfaction and increased profits, the value proposition for most smart home devices has only recently become more compelling as the price point for these devices has come down considerably. In fact, demand for smart home devices is growing so fast that experts have coined the term IoRE—or Internet of Real Estate—to describe the booming market in smart home devices. The smart home device market has doubled in size from about $44 billion to $91 billion over recent years and is expected to reach $158 billion by 2024, according to data from Precise Security. While tenants are likely to value smart lights and virtual personal assistants (VPAs), installing smart home products in your rental property can also be an easy and cost-effective way to protect your property. The acronym “Smart” comes from “Self-Monitoring, Analysis, and Reporting Technology”. Some insurance companies, like SES Risk Solutions, value this increased real-time awareness and may even offer a premium discount for landlords that have invested in installing such devices. Solution: Evaluate the specific needs of your property and investment strategies when considering Smart home technology options. The two we have found to provide the most value are: 1) Flood or moisture detectors. Renters may not place a high degree of value on these devices, but for a small price, moisture sensors can potentially save landlords a considerable amount of money through water damage prevention. Easy to install and affordable, these detectors can alert you to problems like slow leaks that may otherwise go unnoticed before they turn into major issues. They can also quickly inform you of big problems like burst pipes that can do major damage quickly. 2) Smoke and carbon monoxide (CO) detectors. Smart smoke alarms and carbon monoxide detectors take safety a step further than traditional models. Rather than just sounding an alarm, these smart versions can also alert you and/or your renters if there is a problem via an app. VACANCY Another very important set of loss prevention best practices are centered on vacancies. With nationwide occupancy rates above 94%, according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting, vacancy risk management may not be top of mind for investors. However, according to SES Risk Solutions loss history data, losses on vacant properties are over 1.5 times more prevalent and severe. There is the obvious increased risk of slow detection of an issue be it smoke, water leaks, etc. There is also an attractive nuisance, which can draw in squatters and thus increase propensity for vandalism, theft and arson as well as bodily injury. Solution: Top 3 suggested preventative measures: 1) Inspections. The landlord or property management company should physically inspect the vacant property on a regular basis (weekly). They should perform regular maintenance, remove fire-prone debris, check the plumbing, ensure the smoke detectors are functioning, confirm there has been no intrusion, etc. 2) Winterization. Make sure plumbing is drained and heat remains on. 3) Secure the property. Set up motion-activated exterior lights and put interior lights on a timer (simulate real usage). Home security

Increasing Portfolio Value and Reducing Risk

by Debbie Lastoria, Meaghan Hanley
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The Need to Perfect Loan Collateral and Document Custody by Debbie Lastoria and Meaghan Hanley Every loan has a value at origination. The loan officer makes their commission, and based on the secondary market, the investor pays for a loan in accordance with the underwriting basis for which it was closed. This value should survive the life of the loan—but we all know it may not. The value may be impacted by a refinance for a better interest rate or default by the borrower, and this is considered based on statistics. However, there is an exposure that exists with the condition of the collateral file, which is not often taken into consideration upfront. Having a solid process of tracking and maintaining (at a minimum) the mortgage note, recorded mortgage, and title policy at origination is key. In a perfect world, you would originate all your loans and have that process put in place. Now enter the complex world of mortgage banking, where your portfolio was not self-originated, but rather acquired or purchased. Then add into the equation that your purchases include re-performing or non-performing assets. If the collateral file is the underlying basis of your loan value, how do you manage to a complete and perfected file regardless of the origination source? The growing need for a more complete custody process Before the financial crash, investors focused their loan origination requirements on a solid loan underwriting process. The assumption was that a good process would reduce the risk of loss should the borrower run into a financial setback and default. We all know that this was not the case, and then suddenly in 2008, the collateral file became the most important factor to sell a loan, foreclose, or even successfully release the lien. The problem was, while everyone was focused on the underwriting factors, the collateral file management was a secondary afterthought at best. Fast forward, it has been reported that homeowners in some form of default are back to 11% when pandemic related forbearance is considered. This, compounded with increased origination and payoff volume, along with the work from home challenges will again put stress on any collateral handling practices including the well-managed ones. With the challenges of 2020, the needed controls on managing a perfected collateral file have become more of a priority at origination. However, we are still seeing literally hundreds of thousands of collateral files with important documents missing, sometimes even the promissory note or endorsement to the proper interested party/entity. Regardless of whether you know the condition of the file, a perfected collateral file will be required for ALL life of loan events—which may be much more costly to manage when required than a proper review and remediation upfront. For example, this caused serious problems during the foreclosure crisis because servicers were not able to provide the courts with proper documentation indicating their right to foreclose. In judicial foreclosure states, this problem proved to be very costly. In some states, the inability to produce the signed note meant the servicer’s entire case was lost. As a result, servicers are now required to validate their standing prior to first legal proceedings. This process includes not only a review of the collateral file but also a comparison to current land records to ensure all assignments of record are considered in the determination of the lender of record. While the number of loans in default had returned to pre-crash levels with proven successful loss mitigation efforts, this costly review process is still impacting the cost of servicing overall and will only get worse again as we prepare for the impact of pandemic related forbearance fallout. The market for whole loan sales is re-opening and all indicators point to a healthy expansion in 2021 especially when factoring in the non-QM origination and EBO (Early Buyout Program). Purchasing and/or selling these assets typically requires loan review factors such as the underwriting and the mortgage position, as well as the condition of the actual collateral file validated with the land records. Typically, in today’s environment, this process could include: 1) a due diligence firm, 2) a title company, 3) a custodian, 4) a collateral remediation expert, 5) attorneys, and then the custodian again. Not only does each contributor charge at a minimum a per order intake fee to begin the work, but the compilation of results from all parties in this fast-moving market is also taking too long. To further complicate matters, the results are inconsistent, causing further delays. The result is that some buyers are finding it difficult or impossible to combine analytics from all these parties relating to the loan in time to know the real value of the portfolio so they can make a quick resale back intothe market. If a firm that has just purchased a portfolio with the intention of turning it right away cannot quickly, and accurately, assess the value of the loans, they are likely to undersell. We have personal experience with a firm that, after successfully completing a project of the type outlined in this story, increased their purchase price by $50 million from the data compiled vs. the data confirmed. This suggests that the downside risk of failing here will be measured in tens of millions of dollars lost. Clear signs that the industry needs a better solution In our work of helping portfolio sellers prepare their pools for sale, we have found that the existing exception reports are often inaccurate even when reviewed by multiple firms. The non-note collateral is often improperly married to the note collateral and improperly handled trailing documents fill backlogged queues. Worse, where each of the parties investigating the files returns a different result, it must be re-reviewed to resolve the discrepancies. Some new origination or seasoned portfolio issues that should be considered for best execution downstream are: Ensuring you have proper controls for Agent and/or Corres-pondent follow-up Building a tracking and reporting vehicle that incorporates third party data sets Pre-sale review and remediation to proactively

Hindsight is 2020

by Shawn Woedl
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Looking Back on Last Year’s Top REI Insurance Claims by Shawn Woedl With 2020 in the rearview mirror, we can look back on the year and see what we learned. Last year proved that you cannot prepare for everything, but some of the most common insurance losses that happen across the real estate investment industry, year after year, can be mitigated or avoided completely with some planning and commitment. Let’s look at the most common claims submitted last year and some practices an investment property owner can follow to protect their valuable assets. Cause of Loss #1: Wind/Hail With a record-setting 30 named storms (more than two and a half times the annual average), it is no surprise that Wind claims increased 21% compared to 2019. Last year broke 2005’s record of 28 named storms, blowing through the assigned alphabetical names and moving into the Greek alphabet. While these storms certainly caused significant damage (especially those late in the season), they luckily didn’t reach the damage estimates of 2017’s Maria, Irma, and Harvey (more than $90 billion combined). Prepare Your Properties for the Storm If you own properties in the Southeast or along the Eastern Seaboard, you can take steps to prepare for impending storms and limit the damage your property may endure. Well before a storm hits, ensure you have fans, water pumps, cleaning supplies, and a portable generator on hand. You may consider installing permanent storm shutters, but a second option is to use 5/8″ marine plywood cut ahead of time to fit over windows. Tape does not prevent windows from breaking. A well-maintained property can help mitigate damage. Be sure gutters and downspouts are secure and clear of debris. Keep trees and shrubs well-trimmed so they are more wind resistant. Be sure the battery backup for your sump pump is working to prevent drain backups. When it’s safe to visit the property, you may find broken windows, holes in the roof, or standing water. Use tarps to cover openings in case of additional rain, or secure with plywood to discourage thieves from accessing the property. Water can cause mold to form quickly. Act swiftly to dry out wet items. Put furniture on blocks, remove area rugs, and bring in a water pump and fans. Now is a great time to be sure your insurance policy covers Named Storms (a storm or weather condition identified by name by the National Weather Service). Some standard property policies exclude this cause of loss and require that it be purchased separately. Don’t be caught flat footed after the fact—review your policies now, before hurricane season. Cause of Loss #2: Fire Fire is one of the most avoidable causes of loss for investors but remains one of the most common. Preventable Fire Losses The COVID-19 pandemic meant more people were staying at home, which increased opportunities for negligent fire losses. Cooking is the leading cause of home fires, starting from either a grease fire that gets out of control or from unattended cooking. It is critical (and often required by your insurer) that your properties, whether tenant-occupied or vacant, have working and well-maintained smoke detectors. They should be inside every bedroom, outside each sleeping area, and on every level of the home, including the basement. Have a plan to inspect them monthly and change the batteries twice per year. Place fire extinguishers at readily accessible locations in the kitchen and other main areas. Fire extinguishers can help put out small fires before they become uncontrollable. Research the various types available and educate your tenants on their use, as well. During colder months, heat sources can also lead to fire losses. Have all fireplaces and chimneys professionally inspected, and fixed if needed, before the cold season hits. Space heaters should not be used as the primary heating source. If allowed, they should be equipped with safety features such as auto-shut-off, be plugged directly into an outlet, and never be left unattended or allowed to run overnight. Cold weather and increased homelessness can also mean that vacant and renovation properties are more susceptible to squatters who need shelter. It is not uncommon to see a property burn because someone taking refuge there lit a fire to stay warm. Be sure the home is properly secured to keep them out. Wildfire Losses 2020 was also a record-setting year for wildfires with more than 52,000 recorded fires from California to Colorado. Last year nearly 9 million acres went up in flames, almost double from 2019 and 2.3 million more than the 10-year average. If you invest on the West Coast or within a mountain zone, there are regular maintenance practices that can create a “defensible space” around your properties. Keep the area around the home clear of dead vegetation, dried leaves, pine needles, ground debris, and anything that will burn. Remove tree limbs that overhang the roof, and keep the roof and gutters clear of branches and debris. Do not store combustible materials in or near the house and make sure vents are covered with 1/8″ mesh screen. Be sure the property has garden hoses long enough to reach any area of the home. Cause of Loss #3: Theft and Vandalism Vacant and renovation homes are always more at risk for theft, but the pandemic has heightened this risk. Many theft losses can be avoided by taking simple security measures. Make thieves and vandals believe the house is being lived in. Set exterior lights on a timer or install motion-activated lights. A well-lit exterior may discourage thieves from approaching your property at night. Keep the yard cut and clean, and trim back trees and shrubs that may block views of the house and provide places for thieves to hide. Make sure the property is properly secured—lock doors and windows and reinforce them with sturdy hardware. Use an alarm system with monitoring. If someone does break in, they may leave just as quickly if the alarm goes off. Lastly, monitor the property frequently, check the mailbox,

by admin
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Alliant Capital, a leading firm focused on tax credit syndication for the development and financing of affordable multifamily rental housing, has released their inaugural Annual Outlook. The report reveals findings about 2020 and insights for 2021 by the firm’s senior leaders – professionals across multiple lines of the affordable housing industry with an average of 25 years’ experience. The outlook brings together data from multiple U.S. Census bureaus and Alliant Capital’s proprietary database, which has been gathering key industry data and insights since 1998. Alliant Capital’s Top 2021 Observations and Predictions: Multifamily housing remains among the top most desirable asset classes Rent collections exceeded expectations in 2021; this is expected to continue through 2021 with continued Federal support Despite the pandemic and economic uncertainty, American households are in better financial standing than they were entering the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, with higher savings, lower debt burdens, and higher real incomes. However, should consumer habits be permanently adjusted following the conclusion of the pandemic, real risks could seep into the economy, causing a negatively recursive effect that drags employment, income growth, lending, and investing down with it. Lending has proven resilient through the pandemic, helped largely by liquidity programs from the Fed (PPP et. al.) and displays a level of confidence and support in the economy essential to its recovery, while delinquencies remain low. “Our findings have uncovered, surprisingly, a fair amount of stability across the affordable housing industry and the Alliant portfolio,” notes Dudley Benoit, Alliant Capital’s Executive Vice President. “Though many expected a sharp downturn in collections and almost every other statistic or data point that we could review, our data shows us the opposite.” About Alliant Capital The Alliant Company is a leading tax credit (LIHTC) firm focused on providing tax credit syndication for the development and financing of affordable multifamily rental housing. Founded in 1997 to assist in America’s critical need for affordable housing, today Alliant is among the nation’s top syndicators and has an unparalleled track record of success. With a dedicated team of experienced commercial real estate, asset management, legal and tax professionals, Alliant provides the highest level of fully integrated real estate and investment support services. We deliver rock-solid expertise with an innovative perspective.

by admin
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Profits on Home Sales Increase in Nine of Every 10 Housing Markets in 2020; National Median Home Price Up 13 Percent From Last Year to $266,250; Homeowners Now Staying In Their Homes More Than Eight Years Before Selling ATTOM Data Solutions, curator of the nation’s premier property database, released its Year-End 2020 U.S. Home Sales Report, which shows that home sellers nationwide in 2020 realized a home-price gain of $68,843 on the typical sale, up from $53,700 in 2019 and $48,500 two years ago. Profits rose in more than 90 percent of housing markets with enough data to analyze and the latest figure, based on median purchase and resale prices, marked the highest level in the United States since at least 2005. The $68,843 profit on median priced single-family homes and condos represented a 34.7 percent return on investment compared to the original purchase price, up from 29.4 percent last year and 27.2 percent in 2018, to the highest average home-seller return on investment since 2006. Both raw profits and ROI have improved nationwide for nine straight years. And last year’s gain in ROI – up more than five percentage points – marked the largest annual increase since 2017. Profits shot up as the national median home price rose 12.8 percent in 2020 to $266,250 – a record high. The combination of rising profits and record prices came during a year when the national housing market fended off damage that afflicted wide swaths of the U.S. economy after the Coronavirus pandemic of 2020 began spreading across the country in February. Unemployment rose to levels not seen since the Great Depression as millions of businesses temporarily or permanently closed or cut back. But a housing market boom that began in 2012 continued into its ninth year as a spate of buyers relatively unaffected financially by the pandemic – including a cluster looking to escape virus-prone urban areas – chased a declining supply of houses and pushed prices ever higher. “Last year marked a unique year in the history of home prices and profits in the United States. A once-in-a-century health crisis tore through much of the nation’s economy but seemed to have the opposite effect on the housing market,” said Todd Teta, chief product officer at ATTOM Data Solutions. “Demand remained strong as people who could afford the space and relative safety of single-family homes did just that, aided by super-low mortgage rates and a strong stock market. But they went after a narrowing supply of housing stock, so prices soared and so did seller profits. While it is unclear how long that will last, in the annals of history, there will be few years recorded as better for sellers and more challenging for buyers.” Among 132 metropolitan statistical areas with a population greater than 200,000 and sufficient sales data, those in western states continued to reap the highest returns on investment, with concentrations on or near the West Coast. The top 10 metro areas with the highest ROIs on typical home sales were all in the West, led by in San Jose, CA (87.3 percent return on investments); Seattle, WA (72.1 percent); Salem, OR (69.6 percent); Spokane, WA (69.2 percent) and San Francisco, CA (68.2 percent). Historical U.S. Home Seller Gains Prices rise at least 10 percent in more than half the country as most markets hit new highs. The U.S. median home price increased 12.8 percent in 2020, hitting an all-time annual high of $266,250. The annual home-price appreciation in 2020 outpaced the combined increases of 4.4 percent in 2019 and the 4.8 percent increase in 2018. The increase in 2020 topped all annual gains since at least 2006 in the United States. Since the U.S. housing market began recovering in 2012 from the Great Recession of the late 2000s, the national median home price has risen 72.3 percent. All 132 metropolitan statistical areas with a population of 200,000 or more and sufficient home price data saw median prices increase in 2020, while 69 saw prices spike at least 10 percent. Those with the biggest year-over-year increases in median home prices were Bridgeport, CT (up 21.4 percent); Myrtle Beach, SC (up 20.5 percent); Crestview-Fort Walton Beach, FL (up 19.6 percent); Boise, ID (up 18.7 percent) and Hilton Head, SC (up 18.3 percent). The largest median-price increases in metro areas with a population of at least 1 million in 2020 came in Milwaukee, WI (up 15.3 percent); Memphis, TN (up 15.1 percent); Phoenix, AZ (up 14.9 percent); Birmingham, AL (up 13.7 percent) and Seattle, WA (up 12.9 percent). Home prices in 2020 reached new peaks in 129 of the 132 metros (97 percent) analyzed, including New York, NY; Los Angeles, CA; Chicago, IL; Dallas, TX and Houston, TX. The smallest gains among the 132 metro areas were in Worcester, MA (up 1.9 percent); Harrisburg, PA (up 2 percent); Pittsburgh, PA (up 3.3 percent); Boston, MA (up 3.5 percent) and Daphne-Fairhope, AL (up 4.1 percent). Profit margins increase in more than 90 percent of nation. Profit margins on typical home sales rose in 121 of the 132 metro areas with sufficient data to analyze in 2020 (92 percent). The largest annual increases in investment returns came in Mobile, AL (margin up 181.1 percent); Augusta, GA (up 112.8 percent); Huntsville, AL (up 84.4 percent); Davenport, IA (up 75.6 percent) and New Haven, CT (up 73.4 percent). Among metro areas with a population of at least 1 million in 2020, the largest annual ROI increases were in Birmingham, AL (up 71.5 percent); Hartford, CT (up 56.9 percent); Cleveland, OH (up 52.2 percent); Rochester, NY (up 49.9 percent) and St. Louis, MO (up 45.7 percent). The biggest annual decreases in investment returns in 2020 came in Honolulu, HI (down 11.8 percent); Greeley, CO (down 8.9 percent); Miami, FL (down 7.7 percent); Cape Coral, FL (down 7.4 percent) and San Francisco, CA (down 5.7 percent). Aside from Miami and San Francisco, the only metro areas with a population of at least 1 million and