SFR Emerges from Pandemic
Will Other Factors Impact the Industry in 2022? By Tim Reilly This time last year, I compared the Single-Family Rental (SFR) market to the great Gold Rush of 1849. Supply constriction, low interest rates, rising home and rental prices and strong returns created a highly attractive environment for a growing population of professional investors searching for the same hidden treasure. The “Goldilocks” market conditions triggered in part by the COVID-19 pandemic have turned SFRs into a highly valued and resilient asset class that has proven, once again, it is here to stay. The SFR industry has continued to outperform expectations with unprecedented activity stemming from record number securitizations, new market entrants, and expanding warehouse banking lines. SFR Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have been one of the top-performing real estate sectors throughout the pandemic. But how will continuing lack of supply, increasing rates, and other evolving market dynamics in 2022 impact the industry? And what does the future of the single-family rental look like? Before we get to these questions, let’s start with a high-level overview of the asset class and a deeper dive into its performance in 2021. The SFR Market Grows Up In the wake of the Great Recession, the housing environment was nearly the opposite of how it looks today. Excess supply and nonexistent demand which followed the mortgage market collapse led to plummeting home prices. Some daring and intrepid investors stepped into the breach to purchase foreclosed properties with the intention of rehabbing and renting them before reselling the homes when the market recovered. The unintended consequence caused by these investors’ actions resulted in the stabilization of home prices in an otherwise rapidly depreciating housing market. They were buyers when everyone else had soured on the national housing market. As home prices began to rebound, many of these investors continued to lease the properties to consumers who were looking for long term, stable suburban rental opportunities managed by professional property owners. The new owners found that the cash flow, historically low interest rates, and steady price appreciation were a profitable recipe. The business model’s early success attracted the attention of more capital markets participants and more large institutional investors who could aggregate large numbers of rental properties. The win-win recipe for consumers, owners and capital market participants ignited the new single-family rental asset class. At the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was widespread concern that the SFR market would suffer as unemployment could lead to rental delinquencies. Yet, in reality, the SFR market experienced an unprecedented boom. The pandemic created a heightened demand for more square footage, less urban density, and privacy for the new “work-from-home” environment. The new combination of factors drove more renters to less dense, more spacious single-family homes outside of cities. And as commercial real estate and hospitality investments looked uncertain, institutional investors looked to more stable investments in residential real estate. The Wall Street Journal reported there was more than $150 billion of private-equity real estate cash looking for a stable investment haven in 2020—and many fund managers turned to SFRs. Even record-low housing supply challenges that escalated throughout the pandemic did not slow the momentum in the SFR market. The SFR industry continued to creatively adapt to the low housing supply by offering new Build-to-Rent (BTR) communities. In fact, BTR housing became the fastest growing sector of the housing market, with more than 44,000 rental homes built in 2020 and 51,000 built in 2021, according to the National Association of Home Builders. According to the Single-Family Rental Survey conducted by JBREC/NRHC, 26% of portfolio growth for SFR operators came from BTR homes, rising from 11% in 2020 and up sharply from just 3% in 2019. Professionally managed BTR communities with amenities like pools, fitness centers, playgrounds and walking trails provide a lifestyle that appeals to a wide variety of renters from Baby Boomers to Gen-Z. Without a doubt, 2021 was the best year ever for SFR capital markets and its participants. A record number 29 SFR securitizations closed in 2021, far outpacing the 14 securitizations closed in 2020. Smart money was on the SFR industry as the JBREC/NRHC Single-Family Rental Survey reported that single-family rents rose 9% year-over year in the fourth quarter 2021. Single-family homes built to rent are delivering strong returns to investors as well—in November 2021 The Wall Street Journal reported the average risk-adjusted annual return for built-to-rent investments reached 8%. The SFR industry continued its evolution as the asset class offered many more varieties on the home rental concept for both consumers and investors alike. Not only is BTR a new twist on the rental space, but rent-to-buy has also reemerged as another investment vehicle in 2021. The year was not short on new mergers and acquisition activity, joint ventures, and entrants into the vibrant market. At this point SFRs have proven to be a resilient investment, run by forward-thinking creative minds and emerging from the pandemic as the number one asset class. Following the “Best Year Ever” While the growth seen in 2021 will be hard to top, the SFR market is poised for healthy growth in 2022 and beyond. According to PwC and the Urban Land Institute’s Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2022 report, single-family homes rank number one in both investment and development prospects. There is still untapped potential and room for the industry to grow. While there has been concentrated growth in certain metros, especially within the Sunbelt states, the share of SFRs owned by institutional investors is only about 1% of the national housing supply. Investors have begun to open up professionally managed rental opportunities in secondary and tertiary markets outside of the original and primary “Sand States” purchase footprint. Both economic factors and shifting consumer preferences are converging to drive and sustain demand for professionally managed SFR homes. Those economic factors include record high housing prices and increasing mortgage rates that make renting more affordable compared to buying. According to the Radian Home Price Index, provided by Radian’s
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