How You Can Fix And Flip Around Market Shifts And Why Local Flippers Are Crucial To Solving The Inventory Crisis With Kurt Carlton
The state of our economy today is an open book and we see the hit everywhere. But how has it been in the real estate space? Specifically, how has it been in the fix and flip niche? In this episode, Kurt Carlton, President and co-founder of New Western, talks about market shifts and the several factors affecting the real estate market. He also shares insights on what the current inventory crisis is really looking like. Tune in and learn more about initiatives for fix and flip developers and how you can battle inflation and hustle your way to the top. — Watch the episode here Listen to the podcast here How You Can Fix And Flip Around Market Shifts And Why Local Flippers Are Crucial To Solving The Inventory Crisis With Kurt Carlton Welcome back to the show. Thanks for coming back. I am joined by a good friend, Kurt Carlton. Kurt, thanks for stopping by. It is a pleasure. Kurt, take a minute, say hello, and tell a little bit about you and New Western. We operate a marketplace for investors to find houses to rehab. We do it in 20 states and we will be in probably 10 or 15 more. We are expanding rapidly. A lot has changed since 2008, but we have been doing this since 2009. I remember when you started and it seemed like bad timing to me, but I am very impressed with what you have done and the marketplace you have developed. I want to get straight into some content here. The first segment is Bottom Line Upfront. What I do is I give each guest two minutes. When I was in the Marine Corps, I used to brief generals. I always said, “You do not bury the lead. You give the general the most important information up front in case mortar shells come in.” What I am going to do is I am going to give you two minutes to talk to the readers and pontificate about what people should be thinking about, what they should be looking at, any data that is interesting to you that you are watching that you think people should watch. Things you think they should be doing or maybe some things that you have seen in the market that you think people should not do. Bottom Line Upfront, go. There a couple of big things. It is getting exciting again. Inflation is the big one. That is what everybody is looking at. Nobody seems to share the opinion on how to measure it, but it is here and it is big. Warren Buffett famously said in 2012, “The biggest hedge against inflation is the 30-year Fannie Mae mortgage.” It is a perfect defense against inflation. Even though rates are higher, you can reset your mortgage rate if rates go down through a refinance, as long as your financial condition stays the same. You cannot repurchase a home again later, if the price increases. I do not think that there is a future where home price appreciation starts to go backward rapidly. Inventory is at such an unhealthy low number. It would be unreasonable to think that you are going to lose home value. I think we will be just fine on homes. That is very much separate from a lot of the other concerns in the economy. I think what is different in this potential recession that we are going into now is, in the past, we did not have as much warning and the Fed did not do as well in giving us a warning ahead of time. They did not communicate as well. When a recession or these issues were nigh upon us, they had to react. What they are doing a really good job of is communicating so that the market can understand where we are heading and can slow down before they need to raise rates. I think that is already happening. We are narrowly looking at a soft landing as opposed to a hard landing, but we will see. I would continue to buy real estate. I would certainly leverage fixed-rate mortgages and debt whenever you can. That would be my advice, given the lack of inventory we have now. You brought up the dirty word, Fed. You said they are doing a good job. You may be the only person I have heard say that, but you are right. They have given us a heads up. Interest rates have doubled, but they have doubled from not even the bottom of the basement, like under the basement, under the foundation piers, down into the Earth’s crust. You brought the crystal ball segment of the show up earlier. Do you think that still rates could still go up? The idea is that they will continue to increase. If you saw it in 2018, we had the same issue. Rates went up and then they reversed it. Who knows if that is going to happen? The inflationary pressure is different than what it was in 2018. Nobody knows where we are going to go, soft landing, hard landing. Your teeth are on the edge. If you push too far, it is like a chain reaction. Everybody goes. I listened to Ben Bernanke in 2008 about how that was potentially avoidable, which I am not sure I believe. It was right before he handed us a signed book and all that. Maybe he was trying to save us. Everybody complained so much. They drove it to happen. Nobody knows, but what is different than it has been in the past is the Fed does a lot more forecasting about what they are going to do. That allows the market to react. It allows the slowdown that we need to slow down inflation and the labor costs that need to happen. I look at this more, real estate-wise, moving towards normalization and not moving towards a recession. It is inserting
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