Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
The City of Brotherly Love Faces an “Uncomfortable” 2023 Market By Carole VanSickle Ellis When a national expert like Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi starts your market’s year off with the observation, “We’re in the bad times,” a lot of local homebuyers get chills — and not in a good way. For real estate investors, however, those chills are something like a silver lining, and Zandi only increased investor interest in the Philadelphia area when he continued his February analysis of that market by predicting that agents, first-time homebuyers, and single-family homebuilders will not feel “all that good” in Philadelphia this year. “In 2022, potential buyers were desperate for more inventory,” recalled Axios Philadelphia analyst Mike D’Onofrio. He added, “Now, homes are hitting the market but people cannot afford them.” D’Onofrio blamed rising interest rates and a localized affordable housing crisis driving rents skyward for Philly’s looming real estate slump. Since he published this analysis in late February of this year, new data shows that median selling prices have fallen by just under 4% year-over-year at the end of Q1 2023; housing inventory on the market is up by roughly 15% year-over-year, and the average time on market is up by more than two weeks year-over-year. Furthermore, at the end of the first quarter of 2023, more than half of all homes on the market in Philadelphia sold below asking price, and most of those transactions took place in what economist Kevin Gillen described as “the lower segment of the market.” For real estate investors seeking metro-area investment opportunities, this confluence of factors could be just what the doctor ordered. With times on market nearing the two-month marker, Philadelphia sellers may feel more inclined to explore less conventional sales options in order to get deals done. As more and more homebuyers find they are no longer able to afford as much house or, in many cases, any house at all thanks to rising interest and rental rates that effectively diminish down payment savings while hiking monthly mortgage payments, the appeal of creative financing will also be on the rise. For Bright MLS chief economist Lisa Sturtevant, 2023 in Philadelphia appears likely to be “about resetting what normal looks like,” including accepting 6% interest rates as something less than cataclysmic. “The market is contracting on both sides,” Sturtevant explained. “[Fewer buyers and sellers in the market] makes for high competition within the market.” She went on to predict “the largest price correction will happen within the city” while “’second-tier’ suburbs may see a decline year-over-year in home prices [and] top-tier suburbs…continue to do well.” Darkening Clouds on the Horizon … Maybe For retail buyers in the Philadelphia area, things are looking bleak this spring, with Zandi describing the local market as being “about as weak as it gets” in May. He continued, “It is kind of consistent with the worst of sales during the peak of the pandemic when we were all shut in, or go back to the financial crisis in 08/09. It is those kinds of levels.” The issue is a troubling combination of rising interest rates and an ongoing affordability problem that local analysts say is “stifling” the market. For individual real estate investors, this could lead to some difficulty finding homeowners willing to sell at any price point — much less at a discount — but desperate buyers in the area are likely to continue to push prices upward on available inventory. For investors with access to viable deals, this will mean their properties are more in demand than ever if the current climate persists. However, it will be important to prioritize reaching potential buyers as well, since the Bright MLS Home Demand Index published in April indicates that many are giving up on the market and seeking other options. The report indicated that demand for luxury condos was the strongest this spring, followed by townhouses and single-family homes priced below $300,000. Luxury single-family homes trailed far behind the rest of the field with the lowest levels of demand. Researchers noted at time of publication that there was a 5.5-month supply of luxury condominium residences on the market and 1.4 months’ worth of mid-market single-family homes. Rising activity from institutional homebuyers in the area may also affect future inventory and demand for homes for sale instead of rent. According to reports from housing advocacy group The Reinvestment Fund (RF), roughly 20% of homes in “distressed” neighborhoods in Philadelphia are currently being sold to institutional investors and converted to rental properties. The fund’s research team defines “distressed” as areas in which there are below-average homeownership, “where both prospective buyers and current owners have struggled to access mortgage financing, [and]… in neighborhoods with low sale prices and high vacancy.” Although institutional activity can be a good thing for neighborhoods where properties are stagnating and for long periods of time and also may ultimately create more housing opportunities for residents in a market, institutional investor participation in a market raises the stakes for individual investors also working to acquire these properties in order to flip to retail buyers or rent. Zillow’s research team recently ranked the Philadelphia housing market 10th in the country for “hottest housing markets of 2023.” In that report, Zillow economic data analyst Anushna Prakash observed, “This year’s hottest markets will feel much chillier than they did a year ago,” adding, “The desire to move has not changed, but both buyers and sellers are frozen in place by higher mortgage rates, slowing the housing market to a crawl.” Zillow placed Philadelphia in tenth place behind southeastern cities like Charlotte, Nashville, Jacksonville, Miami, and Atlanta, as well as a few midwestern markets. No city west of Dallas, Texas, appeared on the list at all. In response to the ranking, local realtor Larry Flick, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Fox & Roach, Realtors, predicted that home prices would “remain stable” and “affordability will increase” over the course of 2023. So far, home prices have actually continued to
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