Florida surpassed California for most risky counties in fourth quarter; Counties in Wisconsin and other Midwest states remain some of the safest markets
ATTOM, the leading provider of property data, AI-powered analytics, and real estate intelligence solutions, released its latest Housing Risk Report spotlighting county-level housing markets around the United States that are more or less vulnerable to declines, based on home affordability, equity and other measures in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Florida counties topped the risk index, accounting for 16 of the 50 riskiest counties, according to ATTOM’s analysis. California had 11 counties in the top 50, followed by New Jersey with four.
The national median sales price for a home hit $365,185 in the fourth quarter of 2025, nearly $10,000 less than the prior quarter but still one of the highest typical sales prices recorded.
In 55.7 percent (331) of the 594 counties with sufficient data to be included in ATTOM’s analysis, a typical resident would have to pay at least a third of their annual wages to cover the purchase and major monthly costs of a home. And In 15 percent (89) of the counties, buying and maintaining a median priced home would require more than half of the typical resident’s annual wages.
“As home prices softened slightly in the fourth quarter, they remain historically high, keeping affordability a challenge for many buyers,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “Foreclosure and unemployment rates have been rising year-over-year. Even as foreclosure activity normalizes, markets where prices remain high, foreclosures are rising, and employment is weakening may face greater risk.”
Counties were considered more or less at risk based on the percentage of homes facing possible foreclosure, the portion with seriously underwater mortgages, the percentage of average local wages required to pay for major home ownership expenses on median-priced single-family homes, and local unemployment rates.
The conclusions were drawn from an analysis of the most recent home affordability, equity and foreclosure reports prepared by ATTOM. Unemployment rates came from federal government data. Rankings were based on a combination of those four categories in 594 counties around the United States, excluding Connecticut, with sufficient data to analyze in the fourth quarter of 2025. Counties were ranked in each category, from lowest to highest, with the overall conclusion based on a combination of the four ranks.
Florida counties rise to top of riskiest list
In recent quarters, California counties have dominated the top of the list of riskiest housing markets, but the fourth quarter of 2025 saw several new locales at the top of the chart.
The overall riskiest markets in ATTOM’s analysis were Charlotte County, FL; Charles County, MD; Butte County, CA; Saint Lucie County, FL; and Atlantic County, NJ.
The counties at the top of the list were distinguished by particularly high foreclosure and unemployment rates.
Midwest markets are safest bets
Among the 50 counties deemed least risky by ATTOM’s analysis, nine were in Wisconsin followed by five in New York and four each in Pennsylvania and Tennessee.
The least risky counties were Olmsted County, MN; Tippecanoe County, IN; Chittenden County, VT; Rock County, WI; and Medina County, OH. These counties had middling affordability scores, but some of the lowest unemployment and foreclosure rates in the country.
Affordability pain eases but unemployment and foreclosure rates threaten markets
Purchase and major monthly expenses for a nationally median priced home would have consumed 31.4 percent of the typical American’s annual wages in the fourth quarter.
The least affordable counties in ATTOM’s market risk analysis were Kings County, NY (103.1 percent of the typical resident’s wages to buy and maintain a home); Marin County, CA (97.3 percent); Santa Cruz County, CA (94.4 percent); Orange County, CA (90.3 percent); Monterey County, CA (90.3 percent).
Nationwide, 3 percent of homes were considered seriously underwater, meaning the combined estimated balances of loans secured by the properties were at least 25 percent more than the properties’ estimated market values.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, the five counties with the highest rates of underwater homes were all in Louisiana: Calcasieu Parish (17.3 percent of homes seriously underwater), Ouachita Parish (13.8 percent), Rapides Parish (13.8 percent), East Baton Rouge Parish (12.5 percent), and Caddo Parish (11.7 percent).
One out of every 1,274 homes nationwide were in foreclosure in the fourth quarter. Of 50 counties with the worst foreclosure rates, 14 were in Florida, eight were in South Carolina, and five were in New Jersey.
The counties with the worst foreclosure rates were Dorchester County, SC (one in every 294 homes in foreclosure); Baltimore City, MD (one in every 321 homes); Pueblo County, CO (one in every 329 homes); Charlotte County, FL (one in every 348 homes); and Osceola County, FL (one in every 360 homes).
The national unemployment rate was 4.5 percent in November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Among the 50 counties with the highest unemployment rates, 15 were in California, 13 were in Florida, and three were in New Jersey.
The counties with the highest unemployment rates were Imperial County, CA (20.1 percent); Yuma County, AZ (13.4 percent); Tulare County, CA (10 percent); Merced County, CA (9 percent); and Sumter County, FL (8.9 percent).
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