“Rain City” Posts Rising Property Values, Listing Volumes Midway Through 2025
by Carole VanSickle Ellis
Seattle, Washington, home values are still heading upward despite rising listing volumes as the market enters the busy summer months.
In King County, the median single-family home price hit $1.03 million in April (vs. just under $1 million a year prior), taking affordability skyward and requiring a household to bring in more than $100,000 annually in order to keep housing costs at less than a third of annual income and thus meeting the conventional definition for “affordability.” Heidi Groover, a Seattle Times business reporter, observed, “[This] is another indication that a million-dollar single-family home has become the norm here.”
Likely as a result of steadfastly high prices, spring home sales in Seattle lagged behind the pace of recent years. Local analysts credit higher interest rates, nervousness revolving around higher interest rates, and uncertainty about the broader economy as potential causes for the sales dip. “Sales had climbed steadily from January through March before dipping in April, when tariffs dominated the headlines,” Groover observed.
Seattle agent Reba Haas agreed. “All that stuff hit in April and made a bunch of people go, ‘Whoa,’” she said. Haas noted May numbers appeared to be heading in a positive direction but warned the condo market, specifically, would likely remain relatively weaker due to lackluster demand.
However, Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs), sometimes referred to as “condos in name only,” are proving the exception to this trend. Since 2019, when Seattle eased restrictions on these separate structures also known as “backyard cottages” or “in-law suites,” ADU construction has risen by 250%, with 1,000 permits granted in 2024 alone.
ADUs fall under the condo classification but are distinct because they are often built separately from other buildings and look more like small, single-family residences than traditional condos. Seattle relaxed guidelines on these residences in an attempt to add “much-needed housing without drastically altering neighborhood character or requiring massive public subsidies,” reported Strong Towns in March of this year. ADUs that mimic single-family residential properties in appearance — whether attached or unattached — receive more listing attention and command higher prices, Groover reported.
Shifting Trends in Investment Strategies Mirror Market Concerns
As more homes remain on the market longer, Seattle investors are opting out of fix-and-flip strategies and reporting lower profit margins. According to ATTOM Data, only 3.5% of transactions in Seattle were fix-and-flips in Q3 2024. Although home prices are holding high and steady in the area, longer times on market and uncertainty about the local job market are creating concern for fix-and-flip investors in the area.
“The tech sector, a cornerstone of Seattle’s economy, saw a 2.3% decline in employment from Q1 2024 to Q1 2025,” reported the Washington State Employment Security Division.
“Several factors are driving Seattle’s job market decline,” said Mark Harmsworth, director of the Washington Policy Center’s Small Business Center, in May 2025. He cited local policies like high minimum wage and a payroll tax initiative targeting companies with payrolls higher than $8 million, the regulatory burdens associated with Seattle’s “incredibly complex” permitting processes, zoning laws and building regulations, and the shift to remote work as primary factors in employment decline.
In 2024, the Downtown Seattle Association released a study indicating commercial occupancy in the area had fallen by 56% since 2019, resulting in an estimated 25% decline in commercial real estate demand since 2022. Harmsworth called the current situation a “wake-up call” that should lead city leaders to “prioritize policies that foster economic growth over ideological agendas.”
He suggested lowering minimum wage for small businesses, implementing temporary tax credits, streamlining regulations, and investing in remote work-friendly infrastructure like high-speed internet and co-working spaces could alleviate the problem.
At present, several of Seattle’s highest-profile tech employers have revealed plans to at least partially relocate to suburban areas or out of state completely. While none are completely leaving the market, by moving further expansion plans to other regions, these companies have a direct, outsized effect on the local economy. Even geographically small moves, such as Amazon’s announcement it would move “up to 25,000 employees to Bellevue,” which is only as far away as the other side of Lake Washington, create tension and uncertainty in the downtown Seattle market.
The High Cost of Chronic Crime
Perhaps most problematic for the Seattle area, however, is its crime rate. According to the Seattle Police Department, the overall crime rate in Seattle is 134% higher than the national average, which places it at about 5,500 crimes for every 100,000 people. In July 2023, The Seattle Times and Suffolk University reported roughly one in three Seattle residents were “considering leaving” due to either home prices or public safety worries.
Although crime rates have dropped thus far in 2025, with violent crime falling about 20% from 2024 levels and vehicle theft falling about 32% from 2024 levels, the city still has a long way to go for local businesses and residents to feel secure about the future. In 2024, Plus Investment (USA), an investment firm that had waited more than eight years for a permit to build a 46-story residential tower in the area, “indefinitely paused construction” and cited Seattle crime as the cause.
“Unfortunately, I don’t see us going vertical any time soon with the continued public safety concerns in the neighborhood,” the firm’s CEO famously said at the time.
With political protests ongoing in the Seattle area as of June 2025, it appears likely that concerns about crime will continue to affect the area. However, Seattle’s real estate market appears likely to hold steady, high prices for the remainder of this year and into 2026.
SIDEBAR 1
By the Numbers
2 — In 2025, U.S. News & World Report ranked Seattle second on its lists of “Best Places to Live on the West Coast” and “25 Best Places to Find a Job”
9 — Washington state is one of nine U.S. states with no corporate or personal income tax
15 — The number of homes sold in Seattle increased 15% year-over-year as of January 2025
22 — There were 22% fewer single-family permits approved at the end of 2024 than a year prior
2.5 — As of May 2025, Seattle’s housing inventory registered at 2.5 months (vs. 1.5 months in November 2024)
5 — As of May 2025, there were 5 months of new-construction inventory available in Seattle
25 — Average days on market in Seattle as of May 2025
71.3 — Seattle home sellers provided concessions to buyers in 71.3% of home-sale transactions during Q1 2025 vs. 36.4% of sellers offering concessions a year earlier (Redfin)
SIDEBAR 2
A Port in the Storm
On April 2, 2025, President Trump announced “reciprocal tariffs” on countries not subject to other sanctions, and, shortly thereafter, implemented a “baseline” 10% tariff on most U.S. imports. In the aftermath of these policy announcements, port traffic at the Port of Seattle and other U.S. ports has fallen, with notable exceptions including the Port of Savannah, which saw record-breaking container volume in April and May. The Port of Seattle, due in part to its role as one stop among many on the west coast, experienced a dramatic fall-off in traffic in May as ships that had hustled to make multiple trips into the port prior to the tariffs now are skipping regularly scheduled stops.
“The Northwest ports had a surge earlier in the year as shipments were sped up to beat the tariffs, and now we are seeing the shipping industry crash,” said Drew Powers, founder of the Powers Financial Group. He noted that cancellations of shipments have risen by 33%.
Michael Ryan, a Newsweek source and financial analyst, called reduced port traffic a “blinking red light” for the economy. He warned, “The pain doesn’t stop at the docks.”
New travel policies and bans also may negatively affect the Port of Seattle, the port commission wrote in mid-June. They wrote in a joint statement, “[These policies] will not make our country safer but instead damage our global reputation and make the United States a less attractive destination for immigrants, tourists, and other travelers.” As of the time of writing, no operational impacts resulting from the travel ban had been reported.
