REFINANCE ACTIVITY UP AGAIN DURING FOURTH QUARTER DESPITE BROADER U.S. DOWNTURN IN HOME MORTGAGES
Home Loans Shrink 3 Percent Quarterly as Interest Rates Climb and Sales Listings Remain Low;
Purchase and Home-Equity Lending Dips While Refinance Deals Increase Again;
Total Activity Still Down 60 Percent from 2021 Peak
ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property data, and real estate analytics, released its fourth-quarter 2024 U.S. Residential Property Mortgage Origination Report, which shows that 1.64 million mortgages secured by residential property (1 to 4 units) were issued in the United States during the fourth quarter. That was down 3 percent quarterly but up 14 percent from a year earlier.
The quarterly drop-off – after increases earlier in 2024 – came as mortgage rates rose, supplies of residential properties for sale remained near five-year lows and the home-buying market hit its usual Fall slow season. Despite the annual gain in lending activity, the total number of home mortgages issued during the fourth quarter of last year remained down by nearly two-thirds from a high point hit in 2021.
The latest trend resulted from declines in purchase and home-equity lending tempered by an increase in refinance packages.
Lending to home buyers shrank 7.5 percent from the third to the fourth quarter of 2024, to about 732,000, while the number of home equity credit lines dipped 11.6 percent, to roughly 267,000. Mortgage rollovers, however, increased for the third consecutive quarter, growing 6.4 percent to about 642,000.
Measured monetarily, lenders issued $568 billion worth of residential mortgages in the fourth quarter of 2024. That was up 1.4 percent from the third quarter of 2024 and 26.3 percent from the fourth quarter of 2023.
The mixed pattern of ups and downs among various loan types raised the portion of all residential mortgages represented by refinance deals, while lowering the purchase and home-equity loan components. Nevertheless, purchase loans once again stood as the most common form of mortgages around the U.S. during the fourth quarter, comprising almost half.
“The in-boxes of mortgage lenders emptied out a bit during the Fall of 2024 following a couple of strong quarters that had pointed to a possible revival for the industry. Things slowed down as the market remained tight and the cost of borrowing went back, all during the usual annual home-buying lull,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “One small surprise emerged with refinancings increasing again despite rising interest rates. That may have happened because rates started the quarter at one of the more attractive points over the past few years, suggesting that homeowners were trying to get their mortgages reset before borrowing costs went back up.”
He added that “forces remain in places for lending to remain slow. But the fallback was modest, and the trend should turn back around to some degree over the coming months as the weather warms and home buying heats back up, especially if mortgage rates settle down.”
Total lending ticks downward, still less than half of 2021 high points
Banks and other lenders issued a total of 1,640,106 residential mortgages in the fourth quarter of 2024. That was down 3.3 percent from 1,695,915 in third quarter of 2024, although still up from 1,433,864 in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Total activity went down after two straight quarterly gains, keeping the latest count 60 percent beneath a recent high point of 4,135,893 reached in the first quarter of 2021 when average 30-year mortgages rate hovered around 3 percent.
A total of $568.5 billion was lent to homeowners and buyers in the fourth quarter of last year, up slightly from $560.7 billion in the prior quarter and from $450.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023. Still, it was less than half the peak of $1.3 trillion hit in 2021.
Overall lending activity followed downward quarterly and upward annual trends in a majority of metropolitan areas around the U.S. with enough data to analyze. The total decreased from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of last year in 132, or 65.3 percent, of the 202 metropolitan statistical areas that had a population of 200,000 or more and at least 1,000 total residential mortgages issued from October through December of 2024. It remained up from the fourth quarter of 2023 in 175, or 86.6 percent, of the metro areas analyzed.
The largest quarterly decreases came in St. Louis, MO (total lending down 31 percent from the third quarter of 2024 to the fourth quarter of 2024); Augusta, GA (down 23.4 percent); Savannah, GA (down 21 percent); Baton Rouge, LA (down 20.6 percent) and Beaumont, TX (down 20.1 percent).
Aside from St. Louis, metro areas with a population of least 1 million that had the biggest decreases in total loans from the third to the fourth quarter of 2024 were Atlanta, GA (down 18.9 percent); Rochester, NY (down 16.5 percent); Virginia Beach, VA (down 15.9 percent) and Tampa, FL (down 13 percent).
Metro areas with enough data to analyze where lending increased the most quarterly were Honolulu, HI (up 58.7 percent); Hilo, HI (up 51.8 percent); Hilton Head, SC (up 39.7 percent); Charleston, SC (up 26 percent) and Buffalo, NY (up 18.9 percent)
Measured annually, the largest increases in total lending among metro areas with a population of at least 1 million were in San Jose, CA (total lending up 78.1 percent from the fourth quarter of 2023 to the fourth quarter of 2024); Honolulu, HI (up 75 percent); Los Angeles, CA (up 43 percent); San Francisco, CA (up 40.7 percent) and San Diego, CA (up 40.1 percent).
Purchase mortgages decline amid tight market and slow buying season but remain most common loan
The decline in overall fourth-quarter lending activity was driven largely by the latest decrease in the number of mortgages issued to home buyers, which dropped to 731,517.
While lending to buyers remained up annually by 6.4 percent, the fourth-quarter total was off from 790,970 in the prior quarter. It also sat far below a 1.6 million highwater mark hit in the Spring of 2021.
The latest dollar volume of purchase loans, $289.7 billion, was 5.5 percent less than the $306.5 billion third-quarter level and 45.7 percent below a 2021 peak. Still, it was up 16.2 percent from the $249.3 billion amount loaned in late 2023.
Residential purchase-mortgage originations decreased quarterly in 79.7 percent of the 202 metro areas in the report while they were up annually in 70.3 percent of those markets.
The largest quarterly decreases were in St. Louis, MO (purchase loans down 36.2 percent from the third quarter of 2024 to the fourth quarter of 2024); Augusta, GA (down 31.1 percent); Baton Rouge, LA (down 30.4 percent); Atlanta, GA (down 27.9 percent) and Shreveport, LA (down 27.2 percent).
Aside from St. Louis and Atlanta, the biggest quarterly decreases in metro areas with a population of at least 1 million in the fourth quarter of 2024 came in Virginia Beach, VA (down 21.4 percent); Minneapolis, MN (down 18.2 percent) and San Antonio, TX (down 17.4 percent).
The top annual increases in purchase lending in metro areas with a population of at least 1 million were in Honolulu, HI (up 113.5 percent from the fourth quarter of 2023 to the fourth quarter of 2024); San Jose, CA (up 50.2 percent); Birmingham, AL (up 42.1 percent); Portland, OR (up 41.8 percent) and Las Vegas, NV (up 39.1 percent).
Refinance activity up for third consecutive quarter
Despite interest rates rising during the fourth quarter of last year, the number of residential refinance mortgages issued by lenders climbed to 641,918. That was up from 603,324 in the prior three-month period and by 28.2 percent from 500,877 in the fourth quarter of 2023.
The recent increase marked the third quarterly gain in a row, reaching the highest point since mid-2022. Refinancing activity has gradually increased over the past two years following a spike in interest rates in 2021 and 2022 that caused mortgage rollovers to slump more than 80 percent.
The $228.5 billion dollar volume of refinance packages in the fourth quarter of 2024 remained significantly below a peak of $830.9 billion in 2021. But it was up 15.7 percent from $197.6 billion in the third quarter of last year and up 46.7 percent from $155.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Refinancing activity increased quarterly in 73.8 percent and annually in 93.1 percent of the metro areas around the U.S. with enough data to analyze.
The largest quarterly increases were in Hilton Head, SC (refinance loans up 56.4 percent from the third to the fourth quarter of 2024); Wilmington, NC (up 48.9 percent); San Jose, CA (up 43.8 percent); Buffalo, NY (up 41.9 percent) and San Francisco, CA (up 35.4 percent).
Aside from San Jose, San Francisco and Buffalo, metro areas with a population of least 1 million where refinance activity increased most quarterly were Denver, CO (up 23.9 percent) and Houston, TX (up 22.5 percent).
Metro areas with a population of least 1 million and the largest year-over-year increases in the number of refinance loans were San Jose, CA (up 170.6 percent from the fourth quarter of 2023 to the fourth quarter of 2024); San Francisco, CA (up 113.8 percent); Seattle, WA (up 86.8 percent); Los Angeles, CA (up 84.6 percent) and San Diego, CA (up 80.9 percent).
Refinance packages comprised 39.1 percent of all loan originations in the fourth quarter of 2024. That was up from 35.6 percent in the prior quarter to the highest level since early in 2022, but still not close to the 65.7 percent portion in 2021.
HELOC lending also down quarterly while up annually
As with overall lending, home-equity lines of credit (HELOCs) decreased quarterly but were higher annually. The latest total of 266,171 was off from 301,622 in the third quarter of 2024 while remaining up 8.6 percent from 245,518 in the last few months of 2023.
The $50.2 billion volume of HELOC loans in the fourth quarter of 2024 was down from $56.6 billion in the prior quarter but more than the $45 billion lent in the fourth quarter of 2023.
HELOCs comprised 16.3 percent of all loans in the most recent quarter. That was down from the 17.8 percent portion in the third quarter of 2024 but still almost four times the level recorded in 2021.
HELOC mortgage originations decreased from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of 2024 in 86.6 percent of the metro areas analyzed. The largest quarterly decreases in metro areas with a population of at least 1 million were in Atlanta, GA (down 53.3 percent); St. Louis, MO (down 40.3 percent); Virginia Beach, VA (down 28.9 percent); Houston, TX (down 27.7 percent) and Rochester, NY (down 25.2 percent).
FHA and VA mortgages grow as portion of all loans
Lenders issued 244,984 mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) during the fourth quarter of 2024, representing 14.9 percent of all residential property loans. That was up from 13.6 percent in the third quarter of last year although still down from 15.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Residential loans backed by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) totaled 106,900, or 6.5 percent of all residential property loans originated in the fourth quarter of 2024. That also was up, from 5.8 percent in the previous quarter as well as from 4.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023.
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