Prepayment Activity Hit Record Low in October
– Prepayments fell 16.5% to a single-month mortality (SMM) rate of 0.48%, well below the previous record of 0.55% and the lowest recorded since at least 2000 when Black Knight began reporting the metric
– The national delinquency rate rose 4.5% in October to 2.91% – up 12 basis points since September – driven by a sharp 9.4% rise in 30-day delinquencies
– Florida led the jump in new early delinquencies (+19K) – with the state delinquency rate rising 53 basis points to 3.42% — giving an initial indication of Hurricane Ian impact
– Loans 60 days past due ticked up 2.9% nationally, while those 90 or more days delinquent saw continued – if modest – improvement, inching down another 1.5% in October
– October’s 19.6K foreclosure starts represented a 7% increase that partly reversed September’s decline, but are still 55% below pre-pandemic levels
– Foreclosure starts were initiated on 4% of existing serious delinquencies in October, up slightly from September but still less than half the rate seen in the years leading up to the pandemic
– Active foreclosure inventory held steady as volumes have remained subdued in 2022 due to still historically low foreclosure start levels
Black Knight, Inc. reports the following “first look” at October 2022 month-end mortgage performance statistics derived from its loan-level database representing the majority of the national mortgage market.
Total U.S. loan delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure): 2.91%
Month-over-month change: 4.45%
Year-over-year change: -22.32%
Total U.S. foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate: 0.35%
Month-over-month change: 0.42%
Year-over-year change: 33.22%
Total U.S. foreclosure starts: 19,600
Month-over-month change: 6.52%
Year-over-year change: 390.00%
Monthly prepayment rate (SMM): 0.48%
Month-over-month change: -16.48%
Year-over-year change: -75.47%
Foreclosure sales as % of 90+: 0.59%
Month-over-month change: -1.47%
Year-over-year change: 117.07%
Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure: 1,557,000
Month-over-month change: 66,000
Year-over-year change: -429,000
Number of properties that are 90 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure: 551,000
Month-over-month change: -7,000
Year-over-year change: -555,000
Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory: 186,000
Month-over-month change: 1,000
Year-over-year change: 48,000
Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due or in foreclosure: 1,743,000
Month-over-month change: 66,000
Year-over-year change: -382,000
Top 5 States by Non-Current* Percentage
Mississippi: 6.50%
Louisiana: 5.75%
Oklahoma: 4.88%
Alabama: 4.64%
West Virginia: 4.47%
Bottom 5 States by Non-Current* Percentage
Colorado: 2.05%
Oregon: 1.99%
California: 1.84%
Idaho: 1.74%
Washington: 1.67%
Top 5 States by 90+ Days Delinquent Percentage
Mississippi: 2.38%
Louisiana: 1.90%
Alabama: 1.66%
Oklahoma: 1.55%
Arkansas: 1.54%
Top 5 States by 6-Month Change in Non-Current* Percentage
Alaska: -23.82%
Hawaii: -20.35%
New York: -14.00%
North Dakota: -10.47%
New Jersey: -3.13%
Bottom 5 States by 6-Month Change in Non-Current* Percentage
Iowa: 22.96%
Florida: 16.80%
Colorado: 15.91%
South Dakota: 13.12%
Arizona: 12.43%
*Non-current totals combine foreclosures and delinquencies as a percent of active loans in that state.
Notes:
1) Totals are extrapolated based on Black Knight’s loan-level database of mortgage assets.
2) All whole numbers are rounded to the nearest thousand, except foreclosure starts, which are rounded to the nearest hundred.
For a more detailed view of this month’s “first look” data, please visit the Black Knight newsroom. The company will provide a more in-depth review of this data in its monthly Mortgage Monitor report, which includes an analysis of data supplemented by detailed charts and graphs that reflect trend and point-in-time observations. The Mortgage Monitor report will be available online at https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/ by Dec. 5, 2022. For more information about gaining access to Black Knight’s loan-level database, please send an email to Mortgage.Monitor@bkfs.com.
