Overall Housing Sentiment Ticks Higher Despite Consumers’ Growing Affordability Concerns
Sharply Higher Share of Survey Respondents Expects Rent Prices to Rise
The Fannie Mae (OTCQB: FNMA) Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) increased 0.3 points in January to 73.4, bouncing back slightly after falling last month for the first time since July. Improvements in consumer optimism toward both homebuying and home-selling conditions, along with even greater expectations that home prices will rise over the next 12 months, drove the increase. However, after a surge in mortgage rate optimism in the second half of last year, January saw a 13-percentage-point decline in the net share of consumers who believe mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months. In addition, the share of consumers who expect rental prices will go up increased 8 percentage points from last month to 65%. Year over year, the HPSI is up 2.7 points.
“Consumers seem increasingly pessimistic that housing affordability conditions will improve across the board, as a growing share expects home prices, rent prices, and mortgage rates will all go up,” said Kim Betancourt, Vice President of Multifamily Economics and Strategic Research. “The lower optimism toward the mortgage rate outlook was largely expected, as rates have continued to stay elevated and even crossed the 7% threshold in mid-January. As noted in our latest forecast, we currently expect mortgage rates to end 2025 around 6.5%, relatively little changed from where we are today, which will likely continue to hinder relief for housing affordability and home sales activity.”
Betancourt continued: “On the rental side, consumers have indicated a sharply growing expectation over the past two months that rent prices will increase. This mirrors our expectation that multifamily rents will grow between 2.0% and 2.5% this year — up from an estimated 1.0% last year. Even though it remains relatively cheaper for consumers to rent than buy in nearly every U.S. metro, we expect affordability issues will remain a real challenge for both renters and homeowners alike for the foreseeable future.”
Home Purchase Sentiment Index – Component Highlights
Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) increased 0.3 points in January to 73.4. The HPSI is up 2.7 points compared to the same time last year. Read the full research report for additional information.
- Good/Bad Time to Buy: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home (22%) and the percentage who say it is a bad time to buy (78%) both stayed the same from last month. The net share of those who say it is a good time to buy increased 2 percentage points month over month to -55%.
- Good/Bad Time to Sell: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell a home (63%) and the percentage who say it’s a bad time to sell (36%) both remained unchanged month over month. The net share of those who say it is a good time to sell increased 1 percentage point month over month to 28%.
- Home Price Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months increased from 38% to 43%, while the percentage who say home prices will go down decreased from 27% to 22%. The share who think home prices will stay the same decreased from 35% to 34%. As a result, the net share of those who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months increased 9 percentage points month over month to 20%.
- Mortgage Rate Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months decreased from 42% to 35%, while the percentage who expect mortgage rates to go up increased from 25% to 32%. The share who think mortgage rates will stay the same increased from 32% to 33%. As a result, the net share of those who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months decreased 13 percentage points month over month to 3%.
- Job Loss Concern: The percentage of employed respondents who say they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months increased from 77% to 78%, while the percentage who say they are concerned stayed at 22%. As a result, the net share of those who say they are not concerned about losing their job increased 2 percentage points month over month to 56%.
- Household Income: The percentage of respondents who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago remained at 17%, while the percentage who say their household income is significantly lower decreased from 11% to 9%. The percentage who say their household income is about the same increased from 70% to 73%, a new survey high. As a result, the net share of those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago increased 2 percentage points month over month to 8%.
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SOURCE Fannie Mae
