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Major Home-Ownership Costs Require 30 Percent of Average National Wage in Third Quarter of 2022; But Portion of Wages Needed for Home Ownership Dips as Home Prices Decrease Quarterly, to $340,000; Historic Affordability Remains Worse Than Average Almost Everywhere Across Nation ATTOM, a leading curator of real estate data nationwide for land and property data, released its third-quarter 2022 U.S. Home Affordability Report showing that median-priced single-family homes and condos remain less affordable in the third quarter of 2022 compared to historical averages in 99 percent of counties across the nation with enough data to analyze. That continues to be far above the 69 percent of counties that were historically less affordable in the third quarter of 2021 and marked yet another high point reached during the country’s 11-year housing market boom. However, the report also shows some potential relief for homebuyers as the portion of average wages nationwide required for median major home-ownership expenses has dipped slightly from 30.9 percent in the second quarter of the year to 30 percent in the third quarter. “Homeownership remains largely unaffordable for the majority of homebuyers in the majority of markets across the country,” said Rick Sharga, executive vice president of market intelligence at ATTOM. “While home prices have declined a bit quarter-over-quarter, they’re still higher than they were a year ago, and interest rates have essentially doubled. Many prospective homebuyers simply can’t afford the home they hoped to buy, and in many cases no longer qualify for the mortgage they’d need.” The third-quarter figure does remain above the 28 percent ceiling lenders generally like to see when issuing a mortgage. It also is well above the 23.4 percent level from a year ago. But the current decline in the portion of wages needed to afford the typical home nationwide marks the first quarterly improvement in almost two years and comes as the median national single-family home price has taken a rare third-quarter fall. The latest median value of $340,000 is down 3 percent from the second quarter of 2022 – the first Spring-to-Summer decline since 2008. The report determined affordability for average wage earners by calculating the amount of income needed to meet major monthly home ownership expenses — including mortgage, property taxes and insurance — on a median-priced single-family home, assuming a 20 percent down payment and a 28 percent maximum “front-end” debt-to-income ratio. That required income was then compared to annualized average weekly wage data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (see full methodology below). Compared to historical levels, median home prices in 574 of the 581 counties analyzed in the third quarter of 2022 are less affordable than in the past. The latest number is up from 568 of the same group of counties in the second quarter of 2022, 398 in the third quarter of 2021 and just 284, or less than half, two years ago. The increase has continued as the median national home price – despite dipping quarterly – is still up 10 percent over the past year, while average annual wages across the country have grown just 6 percent. Affording a home remains slightly out of reach but may begin to get easier for average workers amid a time if significant headwinds stall or even reverse a boom in prices that dates back to 2012. Some recent measures point to the market’s ongoing strength: prices are still historically high, home-seller profits have surpassed 50 percent and homeowner equity keeps rising across the country. That has happened as homebuyers continue chasing an extremely small supply of properties for sale. Elevated demand has helped push the national median home price up over the past year faster than the pace of wage growth. But home sales are down as mortgage rates have steadily climbed this year from just above 3 percent to near 6 percent for a 30-year loan, driving up expenses for buyers. Higher interest rates, growing inflation, elevated fuel costs and a declining stock market all strain the finances of prospective homebuyers, and threaten to stall or reverse a nearly unrelenting rise in home values that began when the market started recovering in 2012 from Great Recession of the late 2000s. View Q3 2022 U.S. Home Affordability Heat Map Amid those mixed trends, major home-ownership expenses on typical homes are still unaffordable to average local wage earners during the third quarter of 2022 in 400, or 69 percent, of the 581 counties in the report, based on the 28-percent guideline. Counties with the largest populations that are unaffordable in the third quarter are Los Angeles County, CA; Maricopa County (Phoenix), AZ; San Diego County, CA; Orange County, CA (outside Los Angeles) and Kings County (Brooklyn), NY. Home prices still up at least 10 percent annually in slight majority of country but dip quarterly in close to halfMedian single-family home and condo prices in the third quarter of 2022 are up by at least 10 percent over the third quarter of 2021 in 302, or 52 percent, of the 581 counties included in the report. However, typical values have dropped from the second to the third quarter in 230, or 40 percent, of those counties, which has contributed to the nationwide decrease. Data was analyzed for counties with a population of at least 100,000 and at least 50 single-family home and condo sales in the third quarter of 2022. “Home price appreciation has slowed dramatically in most markets – and there are even price corrections in some areas – as home sales have declined significantly over the past few months,” Sharga added. “But mortgage rates have risen more rapidly and dramatically than they have in several decades, and as a result a monthly mortgage payment today is 35-45 percent higher than a year ago, making affordability too much of a challenge for many would-be buyers.” Among the 48 counties in the report with a population of at least 1 million, the biggest year-over-year gains in median sales prices during the third quarter of 2022 are in St. Louis County, MO (up 37 percent); Collin County (Plano), TX (up 25 percent); Hillsborough County (Tampa), FL (up 24 percent); Palm Beach
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