HOME AFFORDABILITY GETS EVEN TOUGHER ACROSS U.S. DURING Q3
Major Home-Ownership Expenses Consume 35 Percent of Average Wage Nationwide, Reaching Another High Over the Past Decade; Historic Affordability Drops to New Low ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property, and real estate data, released its third-quarter 2023 U.S. Home Affordability Report showing that median-priced single-family homes and condos are less affordable in the third quarter of 2023 compared to historical averages in 99 percent of counties around the nation with enough data to analyze. The latest trend continues a two-year pattern of home ownership getting more and more difficult for average U.S. wage earners. The report shows that affordability has worsened across the nation amid a third-quarter increase in home prices and home-mortgage rates that has combined to help push the typical portion of average wages nationwide required for major home-ownership expenses up to 35 percent. The latest number is considered unaffordable by common lending standards, which call for a 28 percent debt-to-income ratio. It marks the highest level since 2007 and stands well above the 21 percent figure from early in 2021, right before home-mortgage rates began shooting up from historic lows. Home ownership keeps getting tougher for buyers as average 30-year home-mortgage rates in the U.S. have risen above 7 percent, from under 3 percent in 2021, and home prices have increased again in the third quarter of this year. The nationwide median price of single-family homes and condos is up 2 percent from the second quarter, to a new record of $351,250. Typical values around the country have gone up for two straight quarters, from a fallback that lasted from the middle of 2022 into early 2023 and threatened to end the extended boom that has buoyed the U.S. housing market for 11 years running. Those latest price and interest rate hikes, along with other forces, continue to push the typical cost of major ownership expenses up far faster than wages, resulting in declining home affordability. “The dynamics influencing the U.S. housing market appear to continuously work against everyday Americans, potentially to the point where they could start to have a significant impact on home prices,” said Rob Barber, CEO for ATTOM. “We clearly aren’t there yet, as the market keeps going up and the slowdown we saw last year looks more and more like a temporary lull. But with basic homeownership now soaking up more than a third of average pay, the stage is set for some potential buyers to be priced out, which would reduce demand and the upward pressure on prices. We will see how this shakes out as the peak 2023 buying season winds down.” Despite the ongoing path of affordability going against buyers, the forces creating that scenario remain in flux, which could push the trend up or down in the coming months. Home values are up, but at a typically modest third-quarter pace, and mortgage rates have started to settle down. At the same time, though, the stock market has fallen back in the past couple of months after a year of gains, and inflation has ticked upward after a year of declines. Those shifting sands both help and hurt the buying power of house hunters, which could send affordability numbers in either direction. The report determined affordability for average wage earners by calculating the amount of income needed to meet major monthly home ownership expenses — including mortgage payments, property taxes and insurance — on a median-priced single-family home, assuming a 20 percent down payment and a 28 percent maximum “front-end” debt-to-income ratio. That required income was then compared to annualized average weekly wage data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Compared to historical levels, median home prices in 574 of the 578 counties analyzed in the third quarter of 2023 are less affordable than in the past. That is up from 568 of the same group of counties in the second quarter of 2023 and 552 in the third quarter of 2022. It remains more than double the number that was less affordable historically two years ago. Meanwhile, major home-ownership expenses on typical homes are considered unaffordable to average local wage earners during the third quarter of 2023 in 457, or more than three-quarters, of the 578 counties in the report, based on the 28 percent guideline. Counties with the largest populations that are unaffordable in the third quarter are Los Angeles County, CA; Cook County (Chicago), IL; Maricopa County (Phoenix), AZ; San Diego County, CA, and Orange County, CA (outside Los Angeles). The most populous of the 121 counties where major expenses on median-priced homes are still affordable for average local workers in the third quarter of 2023 are Harris County (Houston), TX; Wayne County (Detroit), MI; Philadelphia County, PA: Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), OH; and Allegheny County (Pittsburgh), PA. View Q3 2023 U.S. Home Affordability Heat Map Home prices increase again nationwide, up in two-thirds of local markets After dropping or staying about the same from mid-2022 to early-2023, the national median home price has increased for the second quarter in a row, to $351,250 in the third quarter of 2023. The latest price is up 2.1 percent from $344,000 in the second quarter of 2023 and 6.5 percent from $329,813 in the third quarter of last year. Data was analyzed for counties with a population of at least 100,000 and at least 50 single-family home and condo sales in the third quarter of 2023. Among the 47 counties in the report with a population of at least 1 million, the biggest year-over-year increases in median prices during the third quarter of 2023 are in Fulton County (Atlanta), GA (up 23 percent); St. Louis County, MO (up 14 percent); Miami-Dade County, FL (up 11 percent); Orange County, CA (outside Los Angeles) (up 10 percent) and Palm Beach County (West Palm Beach), FL (up 10 percent). Counties with a population of at least 1 million where median prices remain down the most from the third quarter of 2022 to the same period this year are Travis County (Austin),
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