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2023’s Housing Market Woes Extend into 2024: Low Supply and Unaffordability

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Veros Real Estate Solutions (Veros®), an industry leader in enterprise risk management and collateral valuation services, released its 2023 Q4 VeroFORECASTSM that anticipates nationwide home prices, on average are expected to increase 2.4% over the next 12 months, compared to last quarter’s forecast of a 2.2% increase, signaling a continued rise in prices. VeroFORECASTSM evaluates home prices in over three hundred of the nation’s largest housing markets, and Veros is committed to the data science of predicting home value based on rigorous analysis of the fundamentals and interrelationships of numerous economic, housing, and geographic variables pertaining to home value. As we step into the new year, the echoes of 2023’s housing market challenges continue to reverberate, with low supply and unaffordability remaining at the forefront. In its recent December 2023 meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain current interest rates but hinted at three potential rate cuts in 2024. Mortgage rates have already dipped to 6.6% in response, yet predictions suggest they won’t fall below the mid-six percent range. While mortgage rates have dropped by more than a whole percentage point from the highs reached in October 2023, the overall affordability of homes remains a concern. Even when rates were lower than 6.6% during most of the first half of 2023, they failed to entice sufficient buyers or sellers into the market. While one might expect that mortgage-free homeowners could contribute to the supply, hurdles such as limited options and high prices persist. At least a third of mortgage-free homes are owned by baby boomers and this percentage is expected to rise in the coming years. Warmer climate destinations like Florida, a preferred choice for retirees, have become increasingly costly. Moreover, older Americans are choosing to continue to work and not give up their current lifestyles. Those expecting a tsunami of homes to hit the market as baby boomers retire and downsize will have to wait a while. On the flip side, the housing market sees sustained demand, fueled by millennials forming households and first-time buyers eagerly awaiting favorable opportunities. First-time homebuyers are actively exploring affordable destinations, with a particular focus on the northeast and Midwest regions. Cities in these areas still offer not only affordable housing options but also a lower cost of living than in coastal regions, a higher quality of life, promising economic prospects, and family-oriented communities. The rise of remote work has made it feasible for individuals to live in more affordable areas while maintaining employment with companies located elsewhere. Just a year ago, the top-performing markets based on the VeroFORECASTSM were in North Carolina, Nebraska, and Kansas. However, the landscape has shifted, with the latest forecast placing Rochester, NY, as the leading market. Three cities in Ohio, two in Pennsylvania, and one each in Connecticut, New Hampshire, and Illinois feature on the top 10 list. Greensboro in North Carolina is the sole market outside the Midwest or northeast to make the cut. Each of these metros is projected to appreciate in the 5.3% to 7% range. Rank Metropolitan Statistical Area Forecast 1 ROCHESTER, NY 7.0% 2 AKRON, OH 6.0% 3 ALLENTOWN-BETHLEHEM-EASTON, PA-NJ 5.9% 4 GREENSBORO-HIGH POINT, NC 5.8% 5 LANCASTER, PA 5.7% 6 CANTON-MASSILLON, OH 5.7% 7 CINCINNATI, OH-KY-IN 5.6% 8 HARTFORD-EAST HARTFORD-MIDDLETOWN, CT 5.5% 9 MANCHESTER-NASHUA, NH 5.4% 10 SPRINGFIELD, IL 5.4% Former worst performers, San Francisco, San Jose, and Seattle are shedding that title and displaying signs of recovery. Five of the worst ten performing cities based on the VeroFORECASTSM are in Texas. Additionally, cities in Utah, Idaho, Louisiana, and Nevada have also found a place among the list of worst performers. The current forecast projects a modest depreciation for each of these ten metros, falling within the range of -2% to -5.5%. This shift in rankings highlights the evolving nature of the real estate market, as some areas previously struggling begin to witness a change in fortunes while others grapple with ongoing challenges. Rank Metropolitan Statistical Area Forecast 1 WACO, TX -5.5% 2 MIDLAND, TX -4.0% 3 ST. GEORGE, UT -3.3% 4 BROWNSVILLE-HARLINGEN, TX -3.0% 5 BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR, TX -2.7% 6 AUSTIN-ROUND ROCK-GEORGETOWN, TX -2.6% 7 LAKE CHARLES, LA -2.5% 8 IDAHO FALLS, ID -2.3% 9 BOISE CITY, ID -2.1% 10 LAS VEGAS-HENDERSON-PARADISE, NV -1.9% Source: Veros Real Estate Solutions Author admin View all posts

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The “US Real Estate Service Market Outlook to 2028” report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com’s offering. The US Real Estate Service market has been experiencing robust growth, driven by a convergence of factors. Historically low mortgage rates encourage more people to buy homes or invest in real estate, as it makes financing more affordable. Low interest rates can increase demand for property and drive market growth. Population growth, especially in urban areas, increases the demand for housing, commercial spaces, and infrastructure. This drives the need for real estate services, such as property management, leasing, and brokerage. A strong economy and job creation lead to increased consumer confidence, higher disposable incomes, and improved credit availability. These factors positively impact the real estate market, leading to higher demand for real estate services. Changing demographics, such as the rise of millennials entering the housing market and the increasing number of baby boomers looking to downsize, impact real estate service demands. Different age groups have diverse needs, influencing trends in buying, renting, and property management. Investments in infrastructure, such as transportation networks, schools, and amenities, can drive growth in certain regions. Improved infrastructure often leads to increased property values and greater demand for real estate services in those areas. Government Policies and Incentives: Government initiatives, such as tax incentives for homebuyers, affordable housing programs, and low-income housing tax credits, can influence the real estate market’s growth trajectory. US Real Estate Service Market Analysis Key Trends by Market Segment: Competitive Landscape: The US real estate market is fragmented. The report covers the major players operating in the United States Real Estate Services. The US real estate services market has both international and local players. Some of the prominent players in the industry are Jones Lang Lasalle Inc., CBRE Group, Brookfield properties LLC, Home services of America Inc., and Cushman & Wakefield Holdings Inc. The growing real estate market, adoption of new technology by real estate services providers, and a few other factors will increase the growth of the market. Future Outlook: The future of the US real estate market holds several exciting possibilities driven by emerging trends and advancements. Technology will play a transformative role, with increased adoption of artificial intelligence, virtual reality, and data analytics enhancing the efficiency of property transactions, marketing, and customer service. Smart homes and sustainable building practices will gain prominence, catering to environmentally conscious buyers and investors. As urbanization continues, mixed-use developments with integrated amenities will become more popular, creating vibrant and walkable communities. The demand for flexible and remote work options will impact property preferences, leading to a shift in the types of spaces people seek. Additionally, demographics will influence the market, with the millennial generation entering the prime homebuying age and baby boomers seeking downsizing options. While challenges like housing affordability and supply constraints remain, the US real estate market’s future appears dynamic, adaptive, and poised for continued growth and innovation. Key Topics Covered: 1. Executive Summary 2. US Real Estate Service Market Overview2.1 Taxonomy of US Real Estate Service Market2.2 Industry Value Chain2.3 Ecosystem2.4 Government Regulations/Initiatives for US Real Estate Service Market2.5 Growth Drivers of US Real Estate Service Market2.6 Issues and Challenges of US Real Estate Service Market2.7 Impact of COVID-19 on US Real Estate Service Market2.8 SWOT Analysis 3. US Real Estate Service Market Size, 2017 – 2022 4. US Real Estate Service Market Segmentation4.1 By Property Types, 2017 – 20224.2 By Service, 2017 – 20224.3 By Regional Split (North/West/South/East), 2017 – 2022 5. Competitive Landscape5.2 Mergers and Acquisitions, Joint Ventures, Collaborations, and Agreements5.2 Strategies Adopted by Leading Players5.3 Company Profiles – (Top 5 – 7 Major Players) 6. US Real Estate Service Future Market Size, 2022 – 2028 7. US Real Estate Service Future Market Segmentation7.1 By Property Types, 2022 – 20287.2 By Service, 2022 – 20287.3 By Regional Split, 2022 – 2028 A selection of companies mentioned in this report includes For more information about this report visit https://www.researchandmarkets.com/r/t96vug About ResearchAndMarkets.com ResearchAndMarkets.com is the world’s leading source for international market research reports and market data. We provide you with the latest data on international and regional markets, key industries, the top companies, new products and the latest trends. Author admin View all posts

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Spending power improvements a positive sign, yet financial recovery still underway Primerica, Inc. (NYSE: PRI), a leading provider of financial services in the United States and Canada, announced the release of the Primerica Household Budget Index™ (HBI™), a monthly index illustrating the purchasing power of middle-income households with incomes between $30,000 and $130,000. In November 2023, the average purchasing power for middle-income households was 100.5%, up from 99.1% in October. A year ago, the index stood at 93.7%. “During November, a significant decrease in gasoline prices and a small decrease in food prices, accompanied by continued strength in household incomes, allowed middle-income families to stem the loss of purchasing power they have experienced for several consecutive months,” said Glenn J. Williams, CEO of Primerica. “These families have consistently indicated that the cost of living is weighing on their financial security.” In November, HBI™ data showed middle-income households saw modest improvements in spending power. However, since 2021, driven by the increased costs of necessity items, households experienced an average cumulative budget deficit of nearly $2,500. “So much has happened since January 2019, and for the index to finally come back to the baseline value is a welcome outcome,” said Amy Crews Cutts, Ph.D., CBE®, economic consultant to Primerica. “But it doesn’t mean that all is grand. Had the pandemic never happened, the HBI™ would likely be approximately 10% higher than it is now, there would be more savings accumulation for middle-income households, and middle-income families would not be carrying all the new credit card debt they incurred when inflation was roaring well ahead of earned income.” HBI™ HISTORICAL BACKGROUND The index baseline is set at January 2019 and can be thought of as when middle-income households set a budget based on their earned income at that time. Between 2014 and 2020, the HBI™ results recorded steady gains in purchasing power for middle-income families, with a peak of 105.1% in November 2020. This means that relative to January 2019, households were in a stronger financial position to pay their monthly bills because wage growth outpaced the cost of everyday goods. Increasing inflation then caused the index to plummet. In June 2022, it reached a post-pandemic low of 86.7%. Since May of 2021, when the HBI™ dipped below 100% for the first time since the pandemic, the average middle-income household has cumulatively spent around $2,425 more than budget on basic necessities. In line with this, if the pandemic and ensuing inflation would not have been a factor, the HBI™ today would be closer to 110%. For more information on the Primerica Household Budget Index™, visit www.householdbudgetindex.com. Author admin View all posts

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Redfin reports the share of homebuyers moving to a different metro area is coming down from a peak as it becomes less feasible to work remotely The share of U.S. homebuyers looking to move to a different metro area declined for the third straight month in November, dropping to 23.9%. That’s the lowest share in a year and a half, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. It’s down from 24.1% a year earlier–a tiny drop, but the first annual decline in Redfin’s records–and down from a record high of 26% over the summer. Overall homebuying slowed in 2023 because it was the least affordable year on record and there was a severe supply shortage. There were 4% fewer Redfin.com users looking to move to a new metro in November than a year ago, compared with a 3% year-over-year drop for Redfin.com users searching within their home metro. The slightly bigger drop for house hunters looking to relocate explains why migrants are making up a smaller share of overall home searchers. The portion of house hunters who are relocating to a new area is coming down for a few reasons. One, there’s less flexibility to work remotely as employers call workers back to the office. That means the flow of homebuyers moving from the Bay Area to Austin, TX or Boise, ID, for example, has slowed. Two, home prices generally increased more in popular migration destinations than they did in expensive coastal metros during the pandemic, making the case for moving a bit less compelling. For example, prices in Sacramento–the most popular destination this month–are up about 35% since before the pandemic, compared with an 8% increase in the Bay Area. Still, the migration rate remains above pre-pandemic levels of around 19% as some Americans are still chasing affordability. All 10 of the most popular migration destinations have lower prices than the most common origin of buyers moving in. Spokane, WA lands on list of popular destinations for the first time Spokane has made it onto Redfin’s list of popular migration destinations for the first time on record, landing at number 10. Popularity is determined by net inflow, a measure of how many more Redfin.com users looked to move into an area than leave. The number-one origin of homebuyers moving to Spokane, the second most populous city in Washington, is Seattle, followed by Los Angeles and Portland, OR. Spokane has comparatively low housing costs: The typical Spokane home sells for $416,000, compared to $775,000 in Seattle. Top 10 Metros Homebuyers Are Moving Into, by Net InflowNet inflow = Number of Redfin.com home searchers looking to move into a metro area, minus the number of searchers looking to leave Metro* Net Inflow, Nov. 2023 Net Inflow, Nov. 2022 Top Origin Top Out-of-State Origin Sacramento, CA 5,100 7,000 San Francisco, CA New York, NY Las Vegas, NV 3,800 6,400 Los Angeles, CA Los Angeles, CA North Port-Sarasota, FL 3,700 3,700 New York, NY New York, NY Cape Coral, FL 3,700 4,000 Miami, FL Chicago, IL Salisbury, MD 3,600 2,000 Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. Myrtle Beach, SC 3,600 2,800 Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. Orlando, FL 3,500 3,300 New York, NY New York, NY Portland, ME 3,400 2,800 Boston, MA Boston, MA Nashville, TN 3,000 2,800 Los Angeles, CA Los Angeles, CA Spokane, WA 2,500 2,300 Seattle, WA Los Angeles, CA *Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users searching to and from the region in Sept. 2023-Nov. 2023 Los Angeles tops list of metros homebuyers are leaving for first time More homebuyers are leaving Los Angeles than any other metro area in the country. That marks the first time on record it has been the number-one place homebuyers are leaving and the first time in over two years the Bay Area has dropped out of the number-one spot. The Bay Area comes in second, followed by New York. That’s based on net outflow, a measure of how many more Redfin.com users are looking to leave a metro than move in. Migration out of both Los Angeles and the Bay Area has slowed since the height of the pandemic, when remote workers were fleeing both California metros in favor of more affordable places. But Los Angeles has surpassed the Bay Area because the flow out of the Bay Area has steadily slowed, while the flow out of Los Angeles has picked back up in recent months. Top 10 Metros Homebuyers Are Leaving, by Net OutflowNet outflow = Number of Redfin.com home searchers looking to leave a metro area, minus the number of searchers looking to move in Metro* Net Outflow, Nov. 2023 Net Outflow, Nov. 2022 Top Destination Top Out-of-State Destination Los Angeles, CA 26,100 30,300 Las Vegas, NV Las Vegas, NV San Francisco, CA 25,400 32,000 Sacramento, CA Seattle, WA New York, NY 24,900 20,700 Miami, FL Miami, FL Washington, D.C. 13,300 16,100 Salisbury, MD Salisbury, MD Seattle, WA 11,900 1,300 Spokane, WA Phoenix, AZ Chicago, IL 7,600 7,100 Cape Coral, FL Cape Coral, FL Boston, MA 5,000 6,100 Portland, ME Portland, ME Philadelphia, PA 3,000 1,300 Salisbury, MD Salisbury, MD Detroit, MI 2,100 3,400 Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. Denver, CO 2,000 3,200 Chicago, IL Chicago, IL *Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users searching to and from the region in Sept. 2023-Nov. 2023 To view the full report, including charts and methodology, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-migration-trends-November-2023 Author admin View all posts

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Housing affordability is expected to improve in 2024 as mortgage rates fall and more homes go up for sale Just 15.5% of homes for sale in 2023 were affordable for the typical U.S. household—the lowest share on record, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. That’s down from 20.7% in 2022 and more than 40% before the pandemic homebuying boom. The number of affordable homes for sale also dropped to the lowest level on record. There were 352,500 affordable listings in 2023, down 40.9% from 596,135 in 2022 and down from over a million per year during the prior decade. While the decline is partly due to a drop in listings in general—listings overall fell 21.2% year over year—it’s also due to the fact that elevated mortgage rates and stubbornly high prices made the listings hitting the market more expensive. Mortgage rates have fallen from their October peak, but remain higher than they were in 2022; the typical homebuyer’s monthly payment is roughly $250 more than it was a year ago. Elevated mortgage rates have also propped up housing costs by limiting supply. Many homeowners are staying put instead of selling because they don’t want to lose their ultra low interest rate. That’s bolstering home prices because it means buyers are competing for a limited pool of homes. The good news is that housing affordability has already started to improve, and Redfin expects it to continue improving in 2024. “Many of the factors that made 2023 the least affordable year for homebuying on record are easing,” said Redfin Senior Economist Elijah de la Campa. “Mortgage rates are under 7% for the first time in months, home price growth is slowing as lower rates prompt more people to list their homes, and overall inflation continues to cool. We’ll likely see a jump in home purchases in the new year as buyers take advantage of lower mortgage rates and more listings after the holidays.” Housing Affordability Was Three Times Worse for Black Households Than for White Households Only 6.9% of homes for sale in 2023 were affordable for the typical Black household, compared with 21.6% for the typical white household. The share was nearly as low for Hispanic/Latino households (10.4%) and was highest for Asian households (27.4%). Housing has become unaffordable for a lot of Americans, but Black and Hispanic/Latino families have been hit especially hard because they’re often less wealthy to begin with. On average, these groups earn less money, have less generational wealth, and have lower credit scores (and sometimes no credit scores at all) than white Americans due to decades of discrimination. That makes it tougher to afford a down payment and qualify for a low mortgage rate. Black Americans, in particular, also frequently face racial bias during the homebuying process. The racial housing affordability gap exists nationwide, from the least affordable metros to the most affordable metros. In Detroit, which has the lowest mortgage payments in the country, 31.8% of listings were affordable for the typical Black household this year and 50.2% were affordable for the typical Hispanic/Latino household, but that’s much lower than the 66% affordable for the typical white household. In Anaheim, CA, one of the most expensive markets in the country, people across the board have a hard time finding affordable housing. Still, Black and Hispanic/Latino house hunters have fewer options. Less than 0.5% of listings were affordable for the typical Black household and the typical Hispanic/Latino household in 2023, compared with 1.8% for the typical white household. It’s worth noting that wages have grown faster for nonwhite households than for white households this year, helping to shrink the income gap. Rents have also started to fall, which disproportionately impacts communities of color because they’re more likely to be renters. Affordable Markets Became Much Less Affordable in 2023 In Kansas City, MO, 27.9% of homes for sale in 2023 were affordable for the typical local household, down from 42.8% in 2022. That 14.8 percentage point decline is the largest among the metros Redfin analyzed. Next came Greenville, SC (-14.1 ppts), Worcester, MA (-13.7 ppts), Cincinnati (-13.7 ppts) and Little Rock, AR (-13.5 ppts). Relatively inexpensive metros have seen affordability erode quickly because housing costs have relatively more room to rise, and local incomes are often climbing at a fraction of the pace that mortgage payments are. In San Francisco, 0.3% of homes for sale in 2023 were affordable for the typical local household, down from 0.4% in 2022. That’s the smallest decline among the metros Redfin analyzed. Next came Detroit (-0.2 ppts), Los Angeles (-0.2 ppts) Boise, ID (-0.3 ppts) and Oakland, CA (-0.5 ppts). Markets that have long been expensive like San Francisco, Oakland and Los Angeles already had so few affordable homes that the share didn’t have much room to fall. In the five aforementioned metros aside from Detroit, less than 5% of listings were affordable for the typical household in 2023. Author admin View all posts

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Major Home-Ownership Expenses Again Require One-Third of Average Wage Nationwide, a 16-Year High;Historical Affordability Also Stays at Worst Point Since 2007;But Both Measures End Nearly Three-Year Slide Amid Mixed Trends in Home Prices and Mortgage Rates ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property, and real estate data, released its fourth-quarter 2023 U.S. Home Affordability Report showing that median-priced single-family homes and condos remain less affordable in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to historical averages in 99 percent of counties around the nation with enough data to analyze. The latest trend continues a pattern dating back to 2021 of home ownership requiring historically large portions of wages around the country. The report also shows that major expenses on median-priced homes consume 33.7 percent of the average national wage in the fourth quarter – a level considered unaffordable by common lending standards. Both measures – historical and current affordability – have stayed virtually the same from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of this year after trending consistently against home buyers for almost three years. That has happened as major ownership expenses and wages both are virtually unchanged this quarter. But the two measures are still worse than they were a year ago and far weaker than in 2021. For example, the portion of average wages nationwide required for typical mortgage payments, property taxes and insurance are up three percentage points from a year ago and 12 points from early in 2021, right before home-mortgage rates began shooting up from their lowest levels in decades. The latest expense-to-wage ratio continues to sit above the 28 percent level preferred by mortgage lenders and marks the highest point since 2007. “The good news is that home affordability has stopped getting tougher around the U.S., at least for the moment. The bad news is that owning a home remains more of a financial stretch than it’s been for many years,” said Rob Barber, CEO for ATTOM. “The annual Fall slowdown in the housing market clearly has helped stem the tide working against potential purchasers. Whether that’s just a temporary thing tied to seasonal market patterns is something we won’t know until next year, especially given recent signs that interest rates are coming down. But for now, there is some break into the growing financial stress for house hunters.” The fourth-quarter trends come at a time of mixed patterns among home prices and home-mortgage interest rates. While average 30-year fixed mortgage rates around the U.S. have grown this quarter from 7.1 to 7.4 percent, the nationwide median home value has slipped almost 3 percent. Those two factors have helped to keep home ownership expenses steady from the third to the fourth quarter, which has helped to keep those costs from becoming even more unaffordable for average workers. Affordability had worsened almost every prior quarter since early 2021 as wage increases were outpaced by rising interest rates and prices that kept going up amid a decade-long market boom. Another round of price declines during the annual Winter market contraction combined with interest rate declines that have emerged very recently may help turn the affordability picture back around in favor of buyers. The report determined affordability for average wage earners by calculating the amount of income needed to meet major monthly home ownership expenses — including mortgage payments, property taxes and insurance — on a median-priced single-family home, assuming a 20 percent down payment and a 28 percent maximum “front-end” debt-to-income ratio. That required income was then compared to annualized average weekly wage data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Compared to historical levels, median home ownership costs in 572 of the 580 counties analyzed in the fourth quarter of 2023 are less affordable than in the past. That number is virtually the same as in the third quarter of this year and up slightly from the fourth quarter of last year, but more than double the figure from two years ago. Meanwhile, the portion of average local wages consumed by major home-ownership expenses on typical homes is considered unaffordable during the fourth quarter of 2023 in more than three-quarters of the 580 counties in the report, based on the 28 percent guideline. Counties with the largest populations that are unaffordable in the fourth quarter are Los Angeles County, CA; Maricopa County (Phoenix), AZ; San Diego County, CA; Orange County, CA (outside Los Angeles) and Kings County (Brooklyn), NY. The most populous of the 130 counties where major expenses on median-priced homes are still affordable for average local workers in the fourth quarter of 2023 are Cook County (Chicago), IL; Harris County (Houston), TX; Wayne County (Detroit), MI; Philadelphia, County, PA, and Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), OH. View Q4 2023 U.S. Home Affordability Heat Map Home prices decline quarterly but remain up annually in three-quarters of local marketsAfter jumping almost 10 percent during this year’s Spring and Summer home-buying season, the national median price for single-family homes and condos has decreased from $344,670 in the third quarter of 2023 to $335,000 in the fourth quarter. However, it is still up 6 percent from $316,000 in the fourth quarter of 2022. Data was analyzed for counties with a population of at least 100,000 and at least 50 single-family home and condo sales in the fourth quarter of 2023. Among the 47 counties in the report with a population of at least 1 million, the biggest year-over-year increases in median prices during the fourth quarter of 2023 are in Orange County, CA (outside Los Angeles) (up 14.7 percent); Fulton County (Atlanta), GA (up 14.7 percent); Broward County (Fort Lauderdale), FL (up 10.6 percent); Santa Clara County (San Jose), CA (up 10.4 percent) and Palm Beach County (West Palm Beach), FL (up 10.4 percent). Counties with a population of at least 1 million where median prices remain down the most from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the same period this year are New York County (Manhattan), NY (down 10.3 percent); Travis County (Austin), TX (down 3.4 percent); Queens County, NY (down 2.9 percent); Bexar County (San Antonio), TX (down 2.6 percent) and Philadelphia County, PA (down 1.9 percent). Prices growing faster than wages in half the U.S.While home values have settled down around the U.S. housing market, annual price changes still have outpaced changes