Mecklenburg County, NC
“Meck County” is Poised for More Growth… for Those Who Can Afford It
by Carole VanSickle Ellis
In September 2024, Hurricane Helene, the deadliest Atlantic hurricane since 2017’s Maria, made landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida, moved inland, and stalled over Tennessee and western North Carolina, dumping record-breaking amounts of rainfall into the entire region.
Despite the massive damages sustained throughout western North Carolina and in Charlotte and Mecklenburg County, the region swiftly began building toward a recovery, and the local real estate market indicates that recovery is already well underway.
By November 2024, median home prices were still hovering just over $423,000, up 8.6% year-over-year and 60% from 2019. These prices are largely driven by Mecklenburg County’s county seat, Charlotte, which is North Carolina’s largest city.
“It’s a matter of supply and demand,” explained University of North Carolina business professor Yongqiang Chu, adding, “Every day, about 120 people move into the Charlotte metro area.”
Chu observed the Charlotte inventory had begun to catch up with demand in 2018 thanks to high volumes of new-home and apartment construction, but when pandemic-related restrictions inhibited completion of new units and the population expanded rapidly as people moved to the southeast from other regions of the country, supply once again slowed dramatically. According to Chu, 2020 and 2021 alone “created a deficit of about 10,000 housing units” in the Charlotte/Mecklenburg areas.
Home prices in Mecklenburg County have been rising relatively steadily since 2015, although they went into “overdrive” in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, observed Realtor.com contributor Snejana Farberov.
For real estate investors, the housing deficit and rising home prices represent pure opportunity, and analysts like Chu and his colleagues say the field is essentially wide open in terms of what types of housing an investor could successfully build or renovate for retail sale or rent. Some reported in mid-2024 there were even shortages of high-end housing, with demand exceeding supply even when it came to $3 million homes. Furthermore, thanks to a long history of low-density development in North Carolina, many communities are reluctant to approve higher-density construction, which could keep supply limited in the near future.
To further complicate the issue, North Carolina does not permit local municipalities to require affordable housing development. This state-level regulation of affordable-housing mandates creates a unique environment in which these types of developments are desperately needed but not necessarily incentivized. For housing advocates, this type of legislation is intensely frustrating; for investors, this creates an environment in which affordable housing agreements in which affordable units are included in development plans may be heavily incentivized at a local level via tax advantages or financial incentives.
A Robust Economy Rivaling Many Larger Metro Areas
When it comes to the local economy, Mecklenburg has much to recommend it. The county seat, Charlotte, alone has an economy larger than that of some states. In fact, the Charlotte Regional Business Alliance notes the city’s $220 billion gross regional product “outranks half of U.S. states,” and local unemployment hovers around 3.6%. The labor force has grown 16% since 2010, and the young professional population has grown 32% since that year, along with a 91% growth in the population of tech workers and a 42% growth in business and financial operations occupations.
The population of Mecklenburg is not only the right age to be increasingly interested in single-family residential living; it is also composed of households more likely than most to have the option to make a home purchase despite relatively higher interest rates and price tags.
Mecklenburg County’s Office of Economic Development notes the area has made a deliberate, orchestrated effort to “recruit and retain businesses, stimulate small business vitality, and promote [the] county.” As a result, the county is expected to continue its growth trajectory, which made Mecklenburg the second-most-populous county in North Carolina. The recent addition of DetraPel, Inc., a clean-tech advanced materials company that recently elected to relocate its headquarters to Mecklenburg County, is an example of an “EconoMeck” success, the office said.
“We strive to ensure we remain the ideal place for our residents to live, learn, work, and recreate,” Mecklenburg Board of County Commissioners chair Mark Jerrell said in response to the DetraPel relocation in February of this year. DetraPel’s move will bring engineering, research and development, technician, and back-office operations jobs to the area, with these jobs averaging an annual salary in excess of $71,000. The company’s new 40,000-square-foot manufacturing headquarters will be located in southwest Charlotte.
Mecklenburg and Charlotte have a history of successfully collaborating to bring in new employers, such as Groninger USA, RXO, Siemens Energy, TTX, Alphitronic Americas Inc., Albermarle Corporation, and Solve Industrial Motion Group, the Office of Economic Development reported. “The city and the county have helped bring more than $458 million in capital investment and 1,381 new jobs,” the office stated in a February press release.
As a result of these successful ventures and others, the Mecklenburg and Charlotte markets are considered high-potential growth markets for commercial real estate as well as residential. In fact, 2021 was a record-setting year for the industrial market
in the region, driven, in large part, by pandemic-resistant demand for logistics space, wrote Anthony Burton and Corey Correll in their report on the commercial sector for the Charlotte Regional Business Alliance.
The region’s office-space market is also poised for growth. Burton and Correll explained, “Both people and businesses, mutually encouraged by each other, have moved to the region [over the past decade].” The region attracts in-migration not only from major metro areas like New York City, but also from southeastern metropolitan areas like Atlanta, Georgia, and Miami, Florida. This has resulted in a 41% growth in office-sector employment, and Mecklenburg and Charlotte’s growing reputation for tech and fintech expertise is likely to further enhance growth across the commercial sector.
In response to today’s professionals’ desire to work in modern, walkable, “smart” locations, local Class A construction, in particular, is emphasizing a focus on wellness and attractive office space that makes the national trend of departure from remote work more palatable.
“Investors and companies are prioritizing amenities that center around talent attraction, employee wellbeing, and accessibility, in addition to amenity-rich locations,” CBRE’s Grant Henderson told the researchers. Mecklenburg is considered an ideal location for such developments, and local communities are already working on these types of commercial spaces, such as University City, a Charlotte neighborhood offering light rail connectivity and significant mixed-use development.
A Looming Threat: Rising Property Taxes & Revenue Shortfalls
Amid the sunshiny outlooks and market status reports, however, one dark cloud looms in the Mecklenburg area. The county reported a “significant revenue shortfall” in its $2.5 billion 2025 budget proposal in mid-2024, noting property taxes would need to rise by more than 3% to “maintain county services” and deal with a shortfall of more than $20 million. Charlotte’s city manager proposed property tax increases of his own around the same time, and county manager Dena Diorio warned she expected sales tax revenues to slow in 2025.
Although county commissioners ultimately opted to use a portion of the county’s “rainy day fund” to alleviate property tax hikes, the move is more likely to be a delaying tactic than a permanent fix for property owners. Diorio warned, “[This] is not a responsible way to budget, to use non-recurring revenue to balance your operating budget…. Eventually, you’re going to have a large budget deficit.” Mecklenburg and Charlotte have independently added sales tax hikes to recent ballots as well.
Despite these rising costs, however, the cost of housing in Mecklenburg County is still roughly 13% below the national average, which will work to the market’s advantage as the population continues to swell with households accustomed to paying far more for residential real estate.
“The region offers residents the opportunity for a quality way of life in both business and entertainment,” wrote Jeff Cook Real Estate analysts early this year, citing “ample opportunities for assorted indoor and outdoor activities, from hiking to fine dining,” and “a positive economic outlook supported by multiple industries, international and private businesses, and a higher-education network.”
With a market bolstered by factors like these, Mecklenburg County is likely to remain an attractive region for investors in 2025 and beyond.
SIDEBAR
By the Numbers
4 // In January 2025, Mecklenburg County had just under 4 months’ supply (3.9) of housing available, up from 2.1 months the previous year
Long & Foster
52 // Days on market in January 2025 in Mecklenburg County, up 2% year-over-year
Long & Foster
2 // Charlotte, NC, Mecklenburg’s county seat, ranked 2nd on WalletHub’s list of “Best Real Estate Markets (Large Cities)” for 2025
1 // Charlotte is ranked “most resilient and poised for growth” by CBRE among its “Top 30 Tech Markets”
7.25% // Sales tax in Charlotte
$991 Billion // capital investment in the Charlotte-Mecklenburg area in 2024
Charlotte Business Alliance
7.6% // projected population growth in the Charlotte-Mecklenburg area over the next five years
Charlotte Business Alliance
68,000 // projected number of jobs added in the Charlotte-Mecklenburg area over the next five years
Charlotte Business Alliance
