A Single-Family Rental Marketing Briefing
by REI INK
This month’s “From the Hill” story highlights inflation, the Fannie Mae National Housing Survey and the national deficit and debt. We would like to thank the National Rental Home Council for providing much of the information.
Inflation Update
The consumer price index rose 0.4% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year in August. Both measures outpaced July’s results but were in line with market estimates. Following a 0.1% month-over-month decline in producer prices reported just a day earlier, the CPI uptick is unlikely to dissuade the Federal Reserve from moving forward with a rate cut in September.
The shelter index remains the key driver of price growth, up 0.4% in August after consecutive months of 0.2% growth. Core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, unchanged from July.
Fed-funds futures projections for September were little changed by the report, but year-end estimates became notably more dovish. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, before the CPI release there was a 74.5% chance of three or more cuts. Immediately after the release, forecasts showed a 92.1% chance of at least three cuts.
Fannie Mae National Housing Survey
According to Fannie Mae, consumers expect rental prices to rise by an average of 4.9% over the next year, which is below the July forecast of 6.0%. Sixty-three percent (63%) of respondents believe rents will climb, a slight downtick but in line with the average sentiment seen throughout 2025. Twelve percent (12%) expect rents to decline, up from 10% in July, while 24% expect rents to stay the same, down from 25%.
Buyer sentiment rose slightly — 28% say it’s a good time to buy, up from 23% in July — and matched June for the highest buying sentiment in the past 12 months. However, selling conditions have fallen to their worst level in the past 12 months, with just 58% believing it’s a good time to sell, down from 60%.
Sixty-four percent (64%) of households believe the US economy is on the wrong track, but this is the lowest share in at least 12 months. However, the share of employed respondents who are concerned about losing their jobs rose from 24% in July to 27% in August. This is the second-highest share of the past 12 months, behind only June 2025’s 29%.
The National Deficit and Debt
The federal government’s budget deficit reached $2 trillion for the current fiscal year as the deficit has widened by nearly $100 billion from last year.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its monthly budget update for August, which showed the deficit reached $1.989 trillion in the first 11 months of fiscal year 2025. That amounts to a $92 billion increase in the deficit when compared with the first 11 months of fiscal year 2024.
Overall, federal spending was up by $391 billion from a year ago, an increase of 5%, while tax receipts rose $299 billion, or 7%, in the first 11 months of fiscal year 2025.
Interest expenses on the national debt were another major driver of the increase in spending and wider budget deficit, as net interest payments rose by $72 billion, or 8%, because the national debt is larger than it was last year.
Today’s U.S. national debt is approximately $37.47 trillion, as of September 11, 2025. That is $109,790 for every single person in America and $324,123 for every taxpayer.
Relative to one year ago, total gross national debt is $2.09 trillion higher and relative to five years ago, it is $10.73 trillion higher. Over the past year, the rate of increase averaged $5.72 billion per day, $238.16 million per hour, $3.97 million per minute, or $66,156.25 per second.
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