Housing Supply Shortage Likely to Persist Through Spring, New HouseCanary Report Suggests
Supply Remained Tight in December as Monthly New Listing Volume Fell 10.6% Year-Over-Year
While Median Single-Family Listing Prices Shrunk 2.2%, Median Single-Family Contract Prices Rose for Third Consecutive Month
HouseCanary Forecasts 10-12% Increase in Single-Family Detached Prices Over the Next Twelve Months
HouseCanary, Inc. (“HouseCanary”), a national brokerage known for its real estate valuation accuracy, released its latest Market Pulse report, covering 22 listing-derived metrics and comparing data between December 2020 and December 2021. The Market Pulse is an ongoing review of proprietary data and insights from HouseCanary’s nationwide platform.
Jeremy Sicklick, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of HouseCanary, commented: “In 2021, the housing market drew plenty of headlines as a shrinking supply of homes available for rent and purchase caused properties to fly off the market at all-time high prices across the U.S. Toward the end of the year, the median listing and closed prices of properties in the U.S. began to deviate from each other, reflecting the significant leverage sellers often have in today’s sparse market. As we kick off 2022 with a significant COVID-19 resurgence, we can expect the nationwide shortage of homes for sale to persist well into the spring, driving home prices even higher. Given that the U.S. remains in a low inventory environment with inflation rates at their steepest in 40 years, it’s very likely this year will bring another double-digit increase in national home prices, with our models forecasting price growth in the 10-12% range.”
Select findings from this month’s Market Pulse are below. Be sure to review the Market Pulse in full for extensive state-level data.
Total Net New Listings:
- Since December 2020, there have been 3,218,779 net new listings placed on the market, which is a 4.6% increase versus the same period in 2020
- Percentage of total net new listings over the last 52 weeks, broken down by home price:
- $0-$200k: 17.2%
- $200k-$400k: 40.7%
- $400k-$600k: 21.6%
- $600k-$1mm: 13.8%
- >$1mm: 6.7%
- Percent change in net new listing activity over the last 52 weeks versus the same period in 2020, broken down by home price:
- $0-$200k: (-19.9%)
- $200k-$400k: (-4.5%)
- $400k-$600k: +27.4%
- $600k-$1mm: +41.2%
- >$1mm: +39.0%
Monthly Net New Listing Volume (Single-Family Detached Homes):
- Monthly new listing volume was down 10.6% compared to December 2020
- In December, there were 139,832 net new listings placed on the market, representing a 16.6% decrease year-over-year
- For the month of December, the percent change in net new listing volume compared to December 2020, broken down by home price:
- $0-$200k: (-28.6%)
- $200k-$400k: (-20.5%)
- $400k-$600k: +0.8%
- $600k-$1mm: (-2.8%)
- >$1mm: (-10.4%)
Listings Under Contract:
- Over the last 52 weeks, 3,448,546 properties have gone into contract, representing a 0.6% increase relative to the same period in 2020
- Percentage of total contract volume since December 2020, broken down by home price:
- $0-$200k: 17.7%
- $200k-$400k: 40.8%
- $400k-$600k: 21.2%
- $600k-$1mm: 13.6%
- >$1mm: 6.7%
- Percent change in contract volume over the last 52 weeks versus the same period in 2020, broken down by home price:
- $0-$200k: (-23.4%)
- $200k-$400k: (-8.1%)
- $400k-$600k: +21.6%
- $600k-$1mm: +38.2%
- >$1mm: +43.2%
Monthly Contract Volume (Single-Family Detached Homes):
- For the month of December, there were 238,594 listings that went under contract nationwide, which is a 1.1% increase year-over-year
- For the month of December, the percent change in contract volume compared to December 2020, broken down by home price:
- $0-$200k: (-10.7%)
- $200k-$400k: (-4.3%)
- $400k-$600k: +18.7%
- $600k-$1mm: +16.5%
- >$1mm: +0.8%
Median Listing Price Activity (Single-Family Detached Homes):
- For the week ending December 31, 2021, the median price of all single-family listings in the U.S. was $373,619, a 7.3% increase year-over-year
- For the week ending December 3, 2021, the median closed price of single-family listings in the U.S. was $383,395,a15.1% increase year-over-year
- The median price of all single-family listings in the U.S. is down 2.2% month-over-month and the median price of closed listings has increased by 0.3% month-over-month
About HouseCanary
Founded in 2013, valuation-focused real estate brokerage HouseCanary empowers consumers, financial institutions, investors, and mortgage lenders, with industry-leading valuations, forecasts, and transaction support. These clients trust HouseCanary to fuel acquisition, underwriting, portfolio management, and more. Learn more at www.housecanary.com.
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