Housing Market Returning to Reality as National Price Growth Cools Further in July

Red arrow And dollar finance decline graph- Stock image

Rising inventory and buyer hesitation tempers price growth

First American Data & Analytics, a leading national provider of property-centric information, risk management and valuation solutions and a division of First American Financial Corporation (NYSE: FAF), released its July 2025 Home Price Index (HPI) report. The report tracks home price changes less than four weeks behind real time at the national, state and metropolitan (Core-Based Statistical Area) levels and includes metropolitan price tiers that segment sale transactions into starter, mid and luxury tiers. The full report can be found here.

July National House Price Index

First American Data & Analytics’ National Non-Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) HPI
Metric	Change in HPI
June 2025-July 2025 (month over month)	-0.2 percent
July 2024-July 2025 (year over year)	+1.5 percent

Highlights

Annual house price appreciation is at the slowest rate since March 2012.
House price growth reported in last month’s HPI for May 2025 to June 2025 was revised down by 0.1 percentage points, from -0.1 percent to -0.2 percent.

“It’s back to reality for national house price appreciation, as limited affordability, economic uncertainty and homeowners unwilling to enter the market and give up their low mortgage rates hinder demand amid a growing inventory of listings,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American. “This supply-demand dynamic slowed annual home price growth nationally for the eighth straight month in July. National prices are now just 0.3 percent from their recent peak in May. A window has opened for incomes to outpace price growth and affordability to improve, a positive for buyers looking for an opportunity. Overall, it’s a reflection of a steadily cooling housing market, following the white-hot pandemic-era market fueled by record-low mortgage rates.”

July 2025 Local Market Price Tier Highlights

The First American Data & Analytics HPI segments home price changes at the metropolitan level into three price tiers based on local market sales data: starter tier, which represents home sales prices at the bottom third of the market price distribution; mid-tier, which represents home sales prices in the middle third of the market price distribution; and the luxury tier, which represents home sales prices in the top third of the market price distribution.

“Regional divergence remains a defining feature of the housing market,” said Fleming. “Eight of the 10 metros with the strongest annual price growth are in the Northeast or Midwest, while the weakest performers are in the West and South. Whether a market is gradually shifting towards a buyer’s market or remains firmly in sellers’ market territory depends on which side of the local supply-demand tug-of-war is gaining momentum.”

July 2025 First American Data & Analytics Price Tier HPI Highlights

Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) Ranked by Greatest Year-Over-Year Increases in Starter Tier HPI
CBSA	Change in Starter Tier HPI	Change in Mid-Tier HPI	Change in Luxury Tier HPI
Pittsburgh	+8.7 percent	+3.8 percent	+4.4 percent
Cambridge, Mass.	+3.4 percent	+4.1 percent	+4.0 percent
Charlotte, N.C.	+2.9 percent	+0.3 percent	+2.2 percent
Warren, Mich.	+2.8 percent	+3.5 percent	+3.5 percent
Atlanta	+2.0 percent	+2.6 percent	+2.3 percent

Additional July 2025 First American Data & Analytics HPI Highlights

Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) with Greatest Year-Over-Year Increases in HPI
CBSA	Change in HPI
Pittsburgh	+4.9 percent
New York	+4.4 percent
Cambridge, Mass.	+3.9 percent
Warren, Mich.	+2.6 percent
Minneapolis	+2.6 percent
Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) with a Year-Over-Year Decrease in HPI
Oakland, Calif.	-5.8 percent
Tampa, Fla.	-3.9 percent
Austin, Texas	-3.6 percent
Orlando, Fla.	-2.7 percent
Phoenix	-2.6 percent