Home Price Growth Reaccelerates in Fourth Quarter
Latest FNM-HPI Reading Shows Year-over-Year Increase of 5.8 Percent in Q4 2024
Single-family home prices increased 5.8 percent from Q4 2023 to Q4 2024, an acceleration from the previous quarter’s downwardly revised annual growth rate of 5.4 percent, according to the latest reading of the Fannie Mae (OTCQB: FNMA) Home Price Index (FNM-HPI). The FNM-HPI is a national, repeat-transaction home price index measuring the average, quarterly price change for all single-family properties in the United States, excluding condos. On a quarterly basis, home prices rose a seasonally adjusted 1.7 percent in Q4 2024, up from the downwardly revised 1.2 percent growth rate in Q3 2024. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, home prices increased just 0.3 percent in Q4 2024.
“Year-over-year home price growth accelerated in the fourth quarter, following back-to-back quarters of deceleration,” said Mark Palim, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Inventories of existing homes for sale have improved from a year ago but remain historically low, due largely to the so-called ‘lock-in effect.’ Since the beginning of October, mortgage rates have rebounded after bottoming out around 6.1 percent and are now inching closer to a new psychological barrier, the 7 percent threshold. The higher mortgage rate environment is not only hurting affordability, but it’s also exacerbating the lock-in effect by further reducing homeowners’ incentive to move.”
Palim continued: “The housing market in 2025 faces a difficult balancing act, with a notable decline in mortgage rates likely needed to help unwind the lock-in effect and thaw the supply of existing homes for sale. However, we believe such a decline would likely jumpstart demand from potential first-time homebuyers currently waiting to purchase, which could lead demand to outpace any improvement in supply, further exacerbating already-high home prices and purchase affordability.”
The FNM-HPI is produced by aggregating county-level data to create both seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted national indices that are representative of the whole country and designed to serve as indicators of general single-family home price trends. The FNM-HPI is publicly available at the national level as a quarterly series with a start date of Q1 1975 and extending to the most recent quarter, Q4 2024. Fannie Mae publishes the FNM-HPI approximately mid-month during the first month of each new quarter.
For more information on the FNM-HPI, including a description of the methodology and the Q4 2024 data file, please visit our Research & Insights page on fanniemae.com.
To receive email updates regarding future FNM-HPI updates and other housing market research from Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group, please click here.
SOURCE Fannie Mae
