CoreLogic: US Mortgage Performance Remains Exceptionally Strong in July

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Although overall U.S. mortgage delinquencies crept up from June to July, they are still near an all-time low of 2.7%.
The U.S. foreclosure rate held steady in July for the 17^th consecutive month, at 0.3%.
The U.S. serious delinquency rate (90 days or more late) was at a 23-year low in July.
Idaho was the only state to see a small annual uptick in overall mortgage delinquency rates (0.1 percentage points) in July.
The states with the largest year-over-year delinquency declines were Alaska (0.9 percentage points); and New York, Oklahoma and West Virginia (all 0.7 percentage points).

CoreLogic®, a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, released its monthly Loan Performance Insights Report for July 2023.

For the month of July, 2.7% of all mortgages in the U.S. were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure), representing a 0.3 percentage point decrease compared with 3% in July 2022 and a 0.1% increase from June 2023.

To gain a complete view of the mortgage market and loan performance health, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency. In July 2023, the U.S. delinquency and transition rates and their year-over-year changes, were as follows:

Early-Stage Delinquencies (30 to 59 days past due): 1.3%, unchanged from July 2022.
Adverse Delinquency (60 to 89 days past due): 0.4%, unchanged from July 2022.
Serious Delinquency (90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure): 1%, down from 1.3% in July 2022 and a high of 4.3% in August 2020.
Foreclosure Inventory Rate (the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process): 0.3%, unchanged from July 2022.
Transition Rate (the share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30 days past due): 0.7%, unchanged from July 2022.

U.S. mortgage performance held strong in July, with both overall delinquency and foreclosure rates still hovering near record lows. Only Idaho saw overall delinquencies rise year over year, but rates in that state remain very low. Meanwhile 16 metro areas posted slight annual delinquency upticks, a drop from the previous month, when 31 metros posted increases. With hurricane season in full swing in the late summer and early fall, some areas of the U.S. could see typical seasonal delinquencies rise later this year and into 2024.

“Overall U.S. mortgage delinquencies remained near a record low in July, with the share of homes entering that status or progressing to later stages either unchanged or lower,” said Molly Boesel, principal economist for CoreLogic. “Since most borrowers have substantial amounts of home equity, those who have locked in low mortgage rates that do enter later stages of delinquency will most likely not experience foreclosures.”

“And while home equity gains have slowed from their former rapid pace,” Boesel continued, “CoreLogic projects that home price growth will pick up over the next year. Borrowers should continue to build equity over the coming months, even if at a more moderate rate.”

State and Metro Takeaways:

Of U.S. states, only Idaho posted a small annual increase (up by 0.1 percentage points) in overall mortgage delinquency rates in July. Overall delinquency rates were unchanged year over year in Arizona and Utah. The remaining states’ annual delinquency rates declined between 0.9 and 0.1 percentage points.
In July, 16 U.S. metro areas posted an increase in overall year-over-year delinquency rates. The metros with the largest increases were Elkhart-Goshen, Indiana and Punta Gorda, Florida (both up by 0.5 percentage points) and Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Florida (up by 0.3 percentage points).
In July, two U.S. metro areas posted an increase in serious delinquency rates (defined as 90 days or more late on a mortgage payment), while changes in other metros ranged from -1.5 percentage points to 0.0 percentage points. The metros that posted annual serious delinquency increases were Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Florida and Punta Gorda, Florida (both up by 0.4 percentage points).

The next CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights Report will be released on October 26, 2023, featuring data for August 2023. For ongoing housing trends and data, visit the CoreLogic Intelligence Blog: www.corelogic.com/intelligence.

Source: CoreLogic