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Data & Analytics

Home Seller Profit Margins Drop Slightly in Q3

Typical Margin at 56% as Median Home Price Levels Out by ATTOM Team ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property data, and real estate analytics, released its third-quarter 2024 U.S. Home Sales Report, which shows that homeowners earned a 55.6% profit margin on typical single-family home and condo sales in the United States during the third quarter. That figure was down by small amounts both quarterly and annually, dipping by one percentage point from the second quarter of 2024 and two points from the third quarter of last year. The nationwide investment return ticked downward as home-price spikes that had buoyed the housing market during the Spring of this year flattened out, leaving the U.S. median home value virtually unchanged at about $360,000. While home-seller profits remain historically high, the national margin has declined almost every quarter from a 64% peak hit in 2022. The leveling off of prices during the third quarter also led to typical raw profits for sellers staying about the same, near an all-time high of just under $130,000. “The latest price and profit numbers provided another round of generally good news for homeowners, tempered by a bit of a downside,” said Rob Barber, CEO for ATTOM. “Home values remained at or near record levels around large swaths of the country, keeping seller profits far above historical levels. At the same time, though, the housing market settled down after a big second quarter, which extended a slow fallback in profit margins that started last year. If history is a good guide, the fourth quarter is likely to bring more of the same as the peak buying season ends.” He added that “this is far from a warning sign that the long market boom is ending. But there certainly are forces that could cut either way, especially as affordability remains a challenge for so many potential buyers.” Profit margins slip quarterly in half of U.S. Typical profit margins — the percent difference between median purchase and resale prices — stayed the same or decreased from the second quarter of 2024 to the third quarter of 2024 in 79 (50.6%) of the 156 metropolitan statistical areas around the U.S. with sufficient data to analyze. They were down annually in 112, or 71.8%, of those metros, and down in about the same portion since the second quarter of 2022, when the nationwide return on median-priced home sales peaked at 64.3%. Profit margins have softened over the past year throughout all price segments of the market, from metro areas where home values mostly sit below $250,000 to those where they top $450,000. But the low end of the market has fared a bit better. Typical margins decreased annually in about 60% of the least expensive metro areas compared to about 75% elsewhere. The biggest year-over-year decreases in typical profit margins during the third quarter of 2024 came in the metro areas of:  »            San Francisco, CA (margin down from 84.9% in the third quarter of 2023 to 61.4% in the third quarter of 2024)  »            Punta Gorda, FL (down from 94.1% to 74.4%)  »            Scranton, PA (down from 88.2% to 69.6%)  »            South Bend, IN (down from 77.3% to 59.2%)  »            Hilo, HI (down from 86.5% to 70.5%) Aside from San Francisco, the biggest annual profit-margin decreases in metro areas with a population of at least 1 million in the third quarter of 2024 were in:  »            Austin, TX (typical return down from 44.3% to 33.3%)  »            Honolulu, HI (down from 53.9% to 43.3%)  »            Riverside, CA (down from 78.6% to 69%)  »            Birmingham, AL (down from 52.1% to 42.7%) The biggest annual improvements in returns on investment came in:  »            Trenton, NJ (margin up from 65.5% in the third quarter of 2023 to 87.4% in the third quarter of 2024)  »            Albany, NY (up from 31.8% to 51.6%)  »            Rockford, IL (up from 54.5% to 70.2%)  »            Rochester, NY (up from 66.7% to 81.2%)  »            Evansville, IN (up from 47.2% to 61.7%) Two-thirds of metro markets show returns above 50% Despite the downward trend, returns on investment for median-priced home sales during the third quarter of 2024 still surpassed 50% in 107 of the metro areas analyzed (68.6%). That was down from three quarters of those areas in the third quarter of last year but far above the level of 13% five years ago. The leaders among areas with a population of at least 1 million in the third quarter of this year were:  »            San Jose, CA (typical return of 109.8%)  »            Seattle, WA (90.3%)  »            Providence, RI (84.6%)  »            Miami, FL (83.9%)  »            Grand Rapids, MI (81.9%) The lowest among areas with a population of at least 1 million were in:  »            New Orleans, LA (24.8%)  »            San Antonio, TX (25.1%)  »            Austin, TX (33.3%)  »            Houston, TX (37.3%)  »            Dallas, TX (37.4%) Raw profits remain near record level The raw profit on median-priced home sales nationwide, measured in dollars, slipped 0.9% during the months running from July through September of this year, to $128,700. But it was still up 2.7% from the third quarter of 2023 and remained near the record of $135,000 hit in 2022. Typical raw profits were flat or down quarterly in 74, or 47.4%, of the markets analyzed. Despite the nationwide year-over-year gain, raw profits were the same or down annually in 82, or 52.6% of those metro areas. The biggest year-over-year increases in raw profits on typical sales among metro areas with a population of at least 1 million were in:  »            Rochester, NY (up 24.4%)  »            Cleveland, OH (up 23.5%)  »            Providence, RI (up 18.9%)  »            Chicago, IL (up 18.8%)  »            Cincinnati, OH (up 15%) National median home value stalls in Summer of 2024 Nationwide, the median price of single-family homes and condos rose from the second to the third quarter of 2024 by just 0.2% after spiking 7.4% in the Spring. But it still hit a new record of $360,500, up from $359,900 in the prior three-month period.

Data & Analytics

Home Flipping Activity Dips Slightly

Profits Inch Up Across U.S. in Second Quarter of 2024 by ATTOM Team ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property data, and real estate analytics, released its second-quarter 2024 U.S. Home Flipping Report showing that 79,540 single-family homes and condominiums in the United States were flipped in the second quarter. Those transactions represented 7.5%, or one of every 13 home sales, nationwide during the months running from April through June of 2024. The latest portion of flipped properties was down from 8.7% of all sales in the U.S. during the first quarter of 2024 — a common pattern during the busy annual Springtime buying season each year when other types of home sales spike. The flipping rate was also down slightly from 7.9% a year earlier. While the rate declined, fortunes kept ticking upward for investors who buy, renovate and quickly resell homes. The latest data showed that investors typically earned a 30.4% profit nationwide before expenses on homes sold during the second quarter of this year, marking the fourth time in five quarters that margins increased following a six-year period of nearly continuous drop-offs. The typical profit margin on homes flipped during the second quarter of 2024 — based on the difference between the median purchase and median resale price for home flips— remained about 25 percentage points below peaks hit in 2016. It also stayed within a range that could easily be wiped out by carrying costs that include renovation expenses, mortgage payments and property taxes, revealing anew the struggles home flippers are having in turning healthy profits. But the return on investment was up slightly from both the first quarter of 2024 and from a low point over the past decade of about 25% in the first quarter of last year. Gross profits on typical flips around the country, meanwhile, increased to about $73,500. That remained down from a high of almost $81,000 reached in 2022, but up from $70,000 in the first quarter of 2024 and more than $12,000 above last year’s low point. “The Spring home-buying season of 2024 brought another sign of hope for home flippers that the rebound in fortunes that began for them last year was more than just a temporary thing,” said Rob Barber, CEO for ATTOM. “It’s not as if profits have shot through the roof and investors are riding a new wave of good times. Far from it, as they continue to struggle to benefit from the broader market boom. But the second-quarter numbers did show another step in the right direction.” He added that “with the market rising amid tight supplies of homes for sale around the country and falling interest rates, conditions appear ripe for more improvement over the rest of the year as long as prices don’t shoot up past what most buyers can afford.” The small changes in flipping activity and profit margins during the second quarter came during yet another period of mixed patterns for the home-flipping industry compared to the U.S. housing market. Overall, home prices rebounded strongly during the second quarter from a varied period of gains and losses during the prior 12-month period. Median prices for all single-family homes and condos nationwide rose 9% quarterly and 6% annually. But home-flipping resale prices rose far less, with the median inching up only 2% quarterly and annually to $315,000. Nevertheless, that was enough to boost flipping profit margins as investors benefitted, in small increments, from shifts in prices going in their favor between the time of purchase to resale. Those gaps led to the quarterly and yearly improvement in investment returns. The latest gains for home flippers extended their recovery from an unusual pattern of timing the housing market poorly, which resulted in their profits dropping from 2016 through 2022 while returns for other sellers soared. Home-Flipping Rates Dip Downward Home flips as a portion of all home sales decreased from the first quarter of 2024 to the second quarter of 2024 in 159 of the 185 metropolitan statistical areas around the U.S. with enough data to analyze (85.9%). They went down annually in 115, or 62.2%, of those markets. Measured against the same peak buying period of 2023, most flipping rates declined less than one percentage point. (Metro areas were included if they had a population of 200,000 or more and at least 50 home flips in the second quarter of 2024). Among the metro areas analyzed, the largest flipping rates during the second quarter of 2024 were in:  »         Warner Robins, GA (flips comprised 20.7% of all home sales)  »         Macon, GA (15.4%)  »         Atlanta, GA (13.4%)  »         Columbus, GA (13.2%)  »         Memphis, TN (12.8%) Aside from Atlanta and Memphis, the highest second-quarter flipping rates among metro areas with a population of more than 1 million were in:  »         Birmingham, AL (11.7%)  »         Cleveland, OH (11%)  »         Columbus, OH (10.7%) The smallest home-flipping rates were in:  »         Hilo, HI (3.3%)  »         Honolulu, HI (3.5%)  »         Seattle, WA (4%)  »         San Jose, CA (4.1%)  »         Portland, OR (4.2%) Typical Home-Flipping Returns up Y-O-Y The median $315,000 resale price of homes flipped nationwide in the second quarter of 2024 generated a gross profit of $73,492 above the median investor purchase price of $241,508. That resulted in a typical 30.4% gross profit margin before expenses in the second quarter of 2024, up about one point from 29.2% in the first quarter of 2024 and up from 27.8% in the second quarter of last year. But the latest nationwide figure still remained far beneath the 56.3% level in mid-2016 and from a more recent peak of 48.8% in 2020. Profit margins increased from the first to the second quarter of this year in 93 of the 185 metro areas analyzed (50.3%) and were up annually in 107 of those markets (57.8%). Metro areas with the biggest year-over-year increases in typical profit margins during the second quarter were:  »         Akron, OH (ROI up from 30.9% in the second quarter of 2023 to 78.1% in the

Data & Analytics

U.S. Foreclosure Activity Sees a Monthly Increase in July 2024

Foreclosure Starts Increase 18%; Completed Foreclosures Increase 14% By ATTOM Team ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property, and real estate data, released its July 2024 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, which shows there were a total of 31,929 U.S. properties with foreclosure filings — default notices, scheduled auctions or bank repossessions — up 15% from a month ago and up slightly by .2% from a year ago. “July’s foreclosure activity reflects a slight shift in the housing market,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “With an 18% increase in foreclosure starts and a 14% rise in completed foreclosures from last month, these shifts may highlight growing pressures in certain areas. However soaring home prices seem to continue and have spiked the value of homes across the nation, which boosts equity for homeowners at virtually every stage of paying off mortgages. Monitoring these next few months will help us better understand the implications for the real estate sector.” Delaware, Nevada, and Utah post highest foreclosure rates Nationwide, one in every 4,414 housing units had a foreclosure filing in July 2024. States with the highest foreclosure rates were:  »         Delaware (one in every 2,214 housing units with a foreclosure filing)  »         Nevada (one in every 2,245 housing units)  »         Utah (one in every 2,289 housing units)  »         New Jersey (one in every 2,607 housing units)  »         Illinois (one in every 2,660 housing units) Among the 224 metropolitan statistical areas with a population of at least 200,000, those with the highest foreclosure rates in July 2024 were:  »         Provo-Orem, UT (one in every 940 housing units with a foreclosure filing)  »         Macon, GA (one in every 1,167 housing units)  »         Columbia, SC (one in every 1,587 housing units)  »         Spartanburg, SC (one in every 1,895 housing units)  »         Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ (one in every 1,910 housing units) Those metropolitan areas with a population greater than 1 million with the worst foreclosure rates in July 20244 were:  »         Las Vegas, NV (one in every 2,089 housing units)  »         Philadelphia, PA (one in every 2,197 housing units)  »         Jacksonville, FL (one in every 2,274 housing units)  »         Chicago, IL (one in every 2,279 housing units)  »         Riverside, CA (one in every 2,556 housing units) Greatest numbers of foreclosure starts in California, Florida, and Texas Lenders started the foreclosure process on 21,870 U.S. properties in July 2024, up 18% from last month and up 4% from a year ago. States that had the greatest number of foreclosure starts in July 2024 included:  »         California (2,342 foreclosure starts)  »         Florida (2,339 foreclosure starts)  »         Texas (2,222 foreclosure starts)  »         Illinois (1,221 foreclosure starts)  »         New York (1,145 foreclosure starts) Those major metropolitan areas with a population greater than 1 million that had the greatest number of foreclosure starts in July 2024 included:  »         New York, NY (1,286 foreclosure starts)  »         Chicago, IL (1,555 foreclosure starts)  »         Philadelphia, PA (782 foreclosure starts)  »         Miami, FL (758 foreclosure starts)  »         Los Angeles, CA (689 foreclosure starts) Foreclosure completion numbers increase from last month Lenders repossessed 3,282 U.S. properties through completed foreclosures (REOs) in July 2024, up 14% from last month and down 2% from last year. States that had the greatest number of REOs in July 2024, included:  »         New York (377 REOs)  »         California (370 REOs)  »         Illinois (221 REOs)  »         Pennsylvania (219 REOs)  »         Michigan (212 REOs) Those major metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) with a population greater than 1 million that saw the greatest number of REOs in July 2024 included:  »         New York, NY (271 REOs)  »         Chicago, IL (136 REOs)  »         San Francisco, CA (104 REOs)  »         Detroit, MI (100 REOs)  »         Los Angeles (97 REOs)

Data & Analytics

Foreclosure Activity in First Half of 2024 Down from Previous Year

Foreclosure Starts Decrease 3.5 Percent in First Six Months of 2024 By ATTOM Team ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property and real estate data, released its Midyear 2024 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, which shows there were a total of 177,431 U.S. properties with foreclosure filings — default notices, scheduled auctions or bank repossessions — in the first six months of 2024. That figure is down 4.4% from the same time period a year ago but up 7.8% from the same time period two years ago. “In contrast to the first half of 2023, foreclosure activity across the United States experienced a decline in the first half of 2024,” stated Rob Barber, CEO for ATTOM. “In addition, U.S. foreclosure starts also decreased by 3% in the first six months of 2024. These shifts could suggest a potential stabilization in the housing market; however, monitoring these evolving patterns remains crucial to understanding the full impact on the real estate sector.” States that saw the greatest increases in foreclosure activity compared to a year ago in the first half of 2024 included:  »             South Dakota (up 93%)  »             North Dakota (up 86%)  »             Kentucky (up 73%)  »             Massachusetts (up 46%)  »             Idaho (up 30%). States with highest foreclosure rates Nationwide, 0.13% of all housing units (one in every 794) had a foreclosure filing in the first half of 2024. States with the highest foreclosure rates in the first half of 2024 were:  »             New Jersey (0.21% of housing units with a foreclosure filing)  »             Illinois (0.21%)  »             Florida (0.20%)  »             Nevada (0.19%)  »             South Carolina (0.19%) Other states with first-half foreclosure rates among the 10 highest nationwide were:  »             Maryland (0.19%)  »             Connecticut (0.19%)  »             Delaware (0.18%)  »             Ohio (0.18%)  »             Indiana (0.16%) Metros with highest foreclosure rates Among the 224 metropolitan statistical areas with a population of at least 200,000, those with the highest foreclosure rates in the first half of 2024 were:  »             Lakeland, Florida (0.32% of housing units with foreclosure filings)  »             Columbia, South Carolina (0.31%)  »             Atlantic City, New Jersey (0.28%)  »             Cleveland, Ohio (0.27%)  »             Spartanburg, South Carolina (0.27%) Other major metro areas with foreclosure rates ranking among the top 10 highest in the first half of 2024 were:  »             Jacksonville, Florida (0.25% of housing units with a foreclosure filing)  »             Bakersfield, California (0.25%)  »             Elkhart, Indiana (0.24%)  »             Orlando, Florida (0.24%)  »             Chicago, Illinois (0.24%) Foreclosure starts down 3.5% from last year A total of 130,369 U.S. properties started the foreclosure process in the first six months of 2024, down 3.5% from the first half of last year and down 32% from the first half of 2020. States that saw the greatest number of foreclosures starts in the first half of 2024 included:  »             Texas (15,375 foreclosure starts)  »             Florida (15,251 foreclosure starts)  »             California (14,964 foreclosure starts)  »             New York (7,523 foreclosure starts)  »             Illinois (7,240 foreclosure starts) Bank repossessions decline in first half of 2024 from last year Lenders foreclosed (REO) on a total of 18,726 U.S. properties in the first six months of 2024, down 17% from the first half of 2023 and down 10% from the first half of 2022, but up 92% from the first half of 2021. States that posted the greatest number of REOs in the first half of 2024 included:  »             California (1,575 REOs)  »             Pennsylvania (1,568 REOs)  »             Illinois (1,540 REOs)  »             Michigan (1,432 REOs)  »             Texas (1,197 REOs) Average time to foreclose increases for second quarter in a row Properties foreclosed in Q2 2024 had been in the foreclosure process an average of 815 days. That figure was up 11% from the previous quarter and down 33% from Q2 2023. View the full report at: https://www.attomdata.com/news/most-recent/mid-year-2024-foreclosure-market-report/

Data & Analytics

Home Flipping Activity and Profits Both Rise in Q1 2024

Investment Returns Still Low but Reach 30% Nationwide By ATTOM Team ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property and real estate data, released its first-quarter 2024 U.S. Home Flipping Report showing that 67,817 single-family homes and condominiums in the United States were flipped in the first quarter. Those transactions represented 8.7%, or one of every 12 home sales nationwide, during the months running from January through March of 2024. The latest portion was up from 7.7% of all home sales in the U.S. during the fourth quarter of 2023 — the second straight quarterly gain. While the portion was still down from 9.8% in the first quarter of last year. As flipping rates went up, fortunes kept improving for investors who buy and quickly resell homes. The latest data showed that home flippers typically earned a 30.2% gross profit nationwide before expenses on homes sold during the first quarter of this year, marking the third time in four quarters that margins increased following a six-year period of mostly uninterrupted declines. The typical first-quarter profit margin — based on the difference between the median purchase and median resale price for home flips — remained about 25 percentage points below peaks hit in 2016. It also stayed within a range that could easily be wiped out by carrying costs that include renovation expenses, mortgage payments and property taxes. But it was up from both the fourth quarter of 2023 and from a low point over the past decade of about 25% in the first quarter of last year. Gross profits on typical flips around the country, meanwhile, increased to $72,375. That remained down from a high of about $80,000 reached in 2022. But it was up from $65,000 in the fourth quarter of 2023 and was about $10,000 above last year’s low point. “The latest numbers show that investors still face an uphill climb to clear significant profits after expenses,” said Rob Barber, CEO for ATTOM. They, like others, also face tenuous times amid a housing market boom that’s cooled down over the past year. But we now have a year’s worth of a trend showing that things have started to turn around for the flipping industry, with clear signs of increasing interest flowing into the market.” The continued improvements in profits and profit margins over the past year reflect a rejuvenated pattern of investors benefitting from shifts in prices going in their favor between the time of purchase to resale. In the first quarter of 2024, the typical nationwide resale price on flipped homes increased to $312,375, a 4.1% improvement over the fourth quarter of 2023. The increase outpaced the 2.1% rise in median prices that recent home flippers were commonly seeing when they were buying their properties. Similar gaps appeared annually as well, leading to the quarterly and yearly improvement in investment returns. Home Flipping Rates Turn Upward in Almost 80% of Nation Home flips as a portion of all home sales increased from the fourth quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2024 in 134 of the 173 metropolitan statistical areas around the U.S. with enough data to analyze (77.5%). Most of the declines were by less than two percentage points. Among those metros, the largest flipping rates during the first quarter of 2024 were in:  »             Warner Robins, GA (flips comprised 18.7% of all home sales)  »             Macon, GA (17.1%)  »             Fayetteville, NC (15.8%)  »             Atlanta, GA (14.7%)  »             Memphis, TN (14.6%) Aside from Atlanta and Memphis, the highest flipping rates among metro areas with a population of more than 1 million were in:  »             Columbus, OH (12.8%)  »             Birmingham, AL (12.7%)  »             Kansas City, MO (12.1%) The smallest home-flipping rates among metro areas analyzed in the first quarter were in:  »             Honolulu, HI (3.7%)  »             Oxnard, CA (5.3%)  »             Naples, FL (5.4%)  »             Des Moines, IA (5.5%)  »             Seattle, WA (5.5%)

Data & Analytics

Homeowner Equity Remains Elevated

…But Dips Downward Again in First Quarter By ATTOM Team ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property, and real estate data, released its first-quarter 2024 U.S. Home Equity & Underwater Report, which shows that 45.8% of mortgaged residential properties in the United States were considered equity-rich in the first quarter, meaning that the combined estimated amount of loan balances secured by those properties was no more than half of their estimated market values. The portion of mortgaged homes that were equity-rich in the first quarter of 2024 is down from 46.1% in the fourth quarter of 2023, marking the third straight quarterly decline. The latest figure also was down from 47.2% in the first quarter of 2023, hitting the lowest point in two years. At the same time, the report shows that the portion of mortgaged homes that were seriously underwater in the U.S. rose slightly in the first few months of 2024, from 2.6% to 2.7% of all residential mortgages. Seriously underwater mortgages are those with combined estimated balances of loans secured by properties that are at least 25% more than those properties’ estimated market values. “Homeowner balance sheets continue to benefit in a huge way from the boom times in the form of elevated equity that can be used to help finance all kinds of things, from home renovations to business startups. Still, the windfalls are starting to erode bit by bit amid mounting signs that the market is no longer so super-heated,” said Rob Barber, CEO for ATTOM. “It’s too early to make any broad statements about the market direction, especially coming off the typically slower Fall and Winter months. But amid the recent trends, this year’s Spring buying season will be of heightened importance in telling us if there is a new long-term market pattern developing.” The latest equity drop-offs emerged as the national median single-family home and condo value slipped 4% over the Winter and was up just a modest 3% year-over-year during the first quarter. When prices flatten out or drop, equity usually follows even as homeowners pay off mortgages. That’s because equity is based on mortgage debt as a portion of estimated property values. Heading into the Spring buying season, the market faces a mix of forces that could drive it back up or hold it steady. Those forces include a tight supply of homes for sale and a strong investment market but also mortgage interest rates that have climbed back above 7% for a 30-year loan on top of home prices that remain a financial stretch for average wage earners.  Equity-rich share of mortgages declines quarterly in a majority of U.S. The portion of mortgages that were equity-rich decreased in 26 of the 50 U.S. states from the fourth quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2024, commonly by less than two percentage points. Measured annually, equity-rich levels dropped from the first quarter of 2023 to the same period this year in 25 states. The biggest quarterly declines came in the South regions, led by:  »             Kentucky (portion of mortgages homes considered equity-rich decreased from 35.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023 to 28.7% in the first quarter of 2024)  »             South Carolina (down from 42.4% to 4%)  »             Georgia (down from 46% to 43.7%)  »             Delaware (down from 39.4% to 37.2%)  »             Indiana (down from 43% to 40.9%). At the other end of the scale, equity-rich levels rose in 23 states from the fourth quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2024, mostly by less than one percentage point. The largest improvements were concentrated in the Midwest and West regions, led by:  »             South Dakota (up from 49.8% to 51.5%)  »             Hawaii (up from 55% to 56.5%)  »             Montana (up from 57.3% to 58.7%)  »             North Dakota (up from 30.4% to 31.5%)  »             Mississippi (up from 37.3% to 38.3%)