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Recent Rate Run-Up Expected to Keep Existing Home Sales Near Historic Lows Through 2025

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Economy Remains on Strong Footing, though Core Inflation Remains Sticky Existing home sales are now expected to rise only 4 percent next year from a 2024 pace that is on track for a nearly 30-year low, according to the November 2024 commentary from the Fannie Mae (OTCQB: FNMA) Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group. The downward revision to the existing home sales outlook, which was previously forecast to rise 11 percent in 2025, is the result of significant upward movement in mortgage rates and other long-duration bonds in recent weeks. Whereas previously the ESR Group had expected mortgage rates to dip below 6 percent in early 2025, the revised forecast now shows mortgage rates ending 2025 at 6.3 percent and remaining above 6 percent through 2026. The ESR Group does expect a significant improvement in existing home sales of around 17 percent in its inaugural 2026 forecast, as affordability conditions improve, the lock-in effect weakens, and pent-up demand to move materializes. Furthermore, the ESR Group continues to expect new home sales to improve on already-robust levels in both 2025 and 2026, as homebuilders continue to offer buyers incentives to move existing inventories. The ESR Group’s economic growth outlook is little changed this month, with minor upward revisions to near-term growth in personal consumption. Its 2026 GDP forecast sees the economy continuing to grow near its long-run trend rate of about 2.2 percent. Of note, the ESR Group now expects core inflation, for which further progress has largely stalled in recent months, to remain elevated in the near term. This is offset somewhat by the expectation for lower oil prices due to recent movements in oil markets and a softer global demand outlook, which will likely work to keep topline inflation measures below core inflation through 2025. The ESR Group expects core inflation to return to the Fed’s 2 percent target by the second quarter of 2026, but it now expects somewhat less monetary policy easing in 2025 than previously forecasted. “Long-run interest rates have moved upward over the past couple months following a string of continued strong economic data and disappointing inflation readings,” said Mark Palim, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “To the extent that the recent run-up in rates has been driven by market expectations of stronger economic growth, we think this bodes well for the labor market outlook and home purchase demand. However, we expect inventories of homes added to the market, and therefore sales of existing homes, to remain subdued through next year, as the higher mortgage rate environment is likely to strengthen the ongoing lock-in effect. How these competing forces balance out is currently an open question, but for now we continue to expect affordability to remain the primary constraint on housing activity through our forecast horizon.” Visit the Economic and Strategic Research site at fanniemae.com to read the full November 2024 Economic Outlook, including the Economic Developments Commentary, Economic Forecast, Housing Forecast, and Multifamily Market Commentary. To receive e-mail updates with other housing market research from Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group, please click here. SOURCE Fannie Mae

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Realtor.com® October Rental Report: Rents Fall Again, With More New Units Expected in 2025

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Growing supply of multifamily housing suggests a 1.1% increase in rental stock to more than 49 million units by next fall, with the biggest increases in the South and West. Rents fell by -0.8% to $1,720 in October, marking their fifteenth consecutive month of year-over-year declines and falling the most for smaller-sized units, according to the Realtor.com® October Rental Report. Looking ahead, new rental properties coming onto the market are expected to put continued downward pressure on rents next year. “New multifamily construction projects started in the last two years have hit the market in 2024, with a greater supply of units helping to soften rents and bring renters some relief,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com®. “While we expect fewer multifamily homes to be finished in 2025, we still anticipate enough to increase supply, which will keep downward pressure on rents.”  Growing rental supply remains key for 2024 and 2025 rental marketMore completed multi-family homes made their way to the market in 2024 as projects begun in 2022 and 2023 were finished. Between January and September 2024, the average seasonally adjusted annual rate of multi-family completions reached 606,000 units, up from 445,000 units in the same period in 2023, and higher than the 2017-19 pre-pandemic average of 359,000 units. While a lower rate of completions is anticipated for next year, rental housing stock is still expected to rise by 1.1% to more than 49 million units by fall 2025, which would be 6.7% higher than in the fall of 2019, before the pandemic. Rental stock is expected to increase most in the South by fall 2025New multifamily completions rose in all regions of the country this year, with the biggest year-over-year gains seen in the South (49.1%) followed by the Midwest (44.9%), West (23.9%) and Northeast (7.4%). That has translated to lower median asking rents. In the South, the biggest annual drops in median asking rent in October were seen in Memphis, Tenn. (-5.4%), and Nashville, Tenn. (-5.2%). In the Midwest, the biggest annual decline was in Chicago (-4.1%) and in the West, rent declines were led by Denver (-5.6%) and Phoenix (-4.5%). Large Northeastern metro areas, such as New York (0.4%), have seen small increases in rent due to relatively slower increases in the supply of new rental homes. By fall 2025 rental stock is estimated to increase most in the South, with a 1.5% year-over-year increase, followed by the West (1.2%), Midwest (0.9%) and Northeast (0.7%). That will translate to increases in the overall rental stock by 8.9% in the South, 8.6% in the West, 5.0% in the Northeast and 1.7% in the Midwest compared to pre-pandemic levels. Rents decline across all unit sizesOctober saw the fifteenth straight month of year-over-year rent declines for 0-2 bedroom properties. The median asking rent fell by $14, or -0.8%, to $1,720. That’s still just $40 (-2.3%) lower than its August 2022 peak, and is $272 (18.8%) higher than the same time period in 2019. All unit sizes saw rent declines in October, with the biggest drops in smaller-sized units. The median rent for studios fell -1.2% year-over-year, to $1,436. That’s down -3.6% from its October 2022 peak but is 12.5% higher than five years ago. The median rent for one-bedroom units fell -0.9% to $1,600, 17.1% higher than five years ago. And the median rent for two-bedroom units fell -0.7% to $1,908, which is 21.1% higher than five years ago. National Rental Data – October 2024 Unit Size Median Rent Rent YoY Rent Change – 5 years Overall $1,720 -0.8 % 18.8 % Studio $1,436 -1.2 % 12.5 % 1-bed $1,600 -0.9 % 17.1 % 2-bed $1,908 -0.7 % 21.1 % SOURCE Realtor.com

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COST OF HOME REPAIRS INCREASES BY 3.35% FROM Q3 2023 ACCORDING TO THE Q3 2024 VERISK REMODEL INDEX

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Price increases continue to slow down after post-COVID surge, but have risen almost 70% in the past decade The cost of home repairs and remodeling in the third quarter of 2024 continued to increase, rising by 1.08% from the prior quarter and just over 3.35% from the third quarter of 2023 according to the Q3 2024 Verisk Remodel Index. Costs set new highs for the past decade, rising over 69.5% from the first quarter of 2013. The Verisk Remodel Index tracks costs on 31 different categories of home repair, covering over 10,000 line items ranging from appliances to windows. Data are compiled monthly in over 430 local market areas across the country. “Repair and remodeling costs continue to increase across the country, but the rate of increase is returning to pre-pandemic levels,” said Greg Pyne, VP, Pricing for Verisk Property Estimating Solutions. “In the most recent quarter, those increases appear to have been driven largely by increased labor costs rather than rising material prices.” The two categories reporting the highest quarterly increases – painting the exterior of a home, which rose 3.36%, and replacing tile flooring, which rose 2.18% – are two jobs where labor costs comprise a very high percentage of the cost of the job. Almost 55% of exterior painting costs are from labor, while almost 64% of the cost of replacing tile flooring is from labor. Quarterly cost trends varied across the 31 categories included in the report: prices increased in nine categories; stayed the same in eight; and decreased in 14. Some notable changes in costs: Concrete and Asphalt, which accounts for about three percent of repair costs nationally, saw costs rise by 0.12%, the highest increase among all the categories; Siding, which makes up the largest percentage of costs, rose 0.7%; and Cabinetry had the largest quarterly decrease in costs, falling by 0.11%. Quarter-over-quarter repair and remodeling costs rose more quickly than home prices during the same period, up 1.08% compared to a 0.2% quarterly increase according to price information reported by ATTOM in its Q3 2024 Home Sales Report. Conversely, home prices rose at a brisker pace than repair and replacement costs over the past year – 5.3% to 3.35%. Both home prices and repair costs outpaced the rate of inflation in the third quarter, when the government’s Consumer Price Index sat at 2.1% and the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index was 2.2%. South Atlantic and Mountain States Have Highest Quarterly and Annual Gains All regions again experienced cost increases both quarterly and annually. Quarterly increases ranged from a low of 0.84% in the East South Central and West South Central Regions to 1.21% in the Mountain Region. All regions experienced annual increases of over three percent, ranging from a low of 3.03% in the West South Central Region to 3.68% in the South Atlantic Region. These numbers confirm that repair and remodel costs may be moderating, according to Pyne. “A year ago, annual increases were over five percent in every region, and over six percent in the East North Central, Mountain, and New England Regions. So it does appear that while prices continue to rise, they’re doing so at a slower pace.”   Q1-Q2 2024 Q2-Q3 2023 Q3 2023-2024 East North Central 1.12% 0.94% 3.26% East South Central 1.14% 0.84% 3.23% Mid-Atlantic 0.95% 0.90% 3.08% Mountain 1.21% 1.21% 3.58% New England 1.09% 0.86% 3.24% Pacific 1.03% 0.90% 3.04% South Atlantic 1.03% 1.49% 3.68% West North Central 1.19% 1.17% 3.48% West South Central 1.01% 0.84% 3.03% Northeastern States Have Both the Highest and Lowest Rates of Increase Washington, D.C. had the highest quarterly rate of increase in the country at 3.76%, the only area to surpass a two percent increase for the reporting period. Delaware (1.95%), Utah (1.79%) and Kansas (1.66%) and Montana (1.59%) all reported increases over 1.5%. Kentucky had the lowest rate of cost increases at 0.62%, followed by Oklahoma (0.66%), Arizona (0.68%), Arkansas (0.70%), and Mississippi (0.70%). Methodology The Verisk Remodel Index tracks costs on 31 different categories of home repair, comprising over 10,000-line items including appliances, doors, framing, plumbing, windows. Prices are compiled and updated monthly in over 430 local market areas across the country. The index cost basis is January 2013, and the report is updated quarterly. About Verisk Verisk is a leading strategic data analytics and technology partner to the global insurance industry. It empowers clients to strengthen operating efficiency, improve underwriting and claims outcomes, combat fraud and make informed decisions about global risks, including climate change, extreme events, ESG and political issues. Through advanced data analytics, software, scientific research and deep industry knowledge, Verisk helps build global resilience for individuals, communities and businesses. With teams across more than 20 countries, Verisk consistently earns certification by Great Place to Work and fosters an inclusive culture where all team members feel they belong. Verisk is traded on the Nasdaq exchange and is a part of the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq-100 Index. For more information, please visit www.verisk.com. Contact: Rick Sharga CJ Patrick Company (949) 322-4583 rick.sharga@cjpatrick.com

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Homes With Low Natural Disaster Risk Are Rising in Value Faster Than Homes With High Risk for the First Time in Over a Decade

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Redfin reports that this year marked the first time since 2010 that low-risk homes across three major climate categories—heat, fire and flood—gained value faster than high-risk homes. That may be a sign Americans are growing more responsive to natural disasters. For the first time since 2010, homes facing low risk from natural disasters are rising in value faster than homes facing high risk, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. While these differences are small, they are notable because this year marked the first time since 2010 that low-risk homes across all three categories—heat, flood and fire—rose in value faster than high-risk homes. Low-risk homes across all three risk categories have been gaining value faster than high-risk homes since February 2024. This is the first time Redfin is reporting the trend. “The fact that this is happening across risk types—and thus, across the country—is some of the best evidence we have that climate change is impacting people’s homebuying decisions,” said Redfin Senior Economist Elijah de la Campa. “With climate catastrophes becoming increasingly frequent and calamitous, many people have decided they don’t want to live in risky areas. And with insurance costs skyrocketing, many risky areas that were once affordable have become prohibitively expensive. The reality of climate change is setting in and it’s causing a reckoning; people are putting disaster risk higher on their list of considerations when looking for a home.” Recent shifts in where Americans are choosing to live also indicate that people may be growing more responsive to climate risk. In California, high-fire-risk areas saw more people leave than move in last year—a reversal from the prior year. Additionally, a Redfin-commissioned survey conducted by Ipsos in October found that nearly one-third of young adults say Hurricane Helene made them reconsider where they want to live in the future. One reason the value of low-risk homes is rising faster than the value of high-risk homes is that Florida and Texas—which both face high natural disaster risk—have seen among the slowest home value growth in the nation over the last year. In some areas, including hurricane-prone parts of Florida, that’s likely due to natural disaster risk itself. But it’s also because the rising cost of other things, like insurance and property taxes, has hurt demand. Additionally, Florida and Texas are building more homes than anywhere else in the country, putting a lid on value growth. While climate risk has become a top consideration for some house hunters, that’s certainly not the case for everyone. There are still more people moving into than out of disaster-prone America as a whole, which is one reason home values in disaster-prone areas continue to climb. Home Values in High-Risk Areas Are Still Up More Than 60% Since Before the Pandemic The value of both high- and low-risk homes is up substantially from before the pandemic—largely due to the 2020-2021 homebuying frenzy—but it’s up most for high-risk homes: The value of the U.S. housing market skyrocketed during the pandemic as fierce homebuying demand—driven by record-low mortgage rates—caused buyers to bid up values. Some of the fiercest competition occurred in the Sun Belt, as the region’s relatively affordable housing attracted hordes of homebuyers from more expensive states. But the Sun Belt is home to many places prone to flooding, extreme heat and/or fires, including Florida, Arizona and Texas. Home values in disaster-prone areas continue to rise in part because there’s still demand for homes in these areas. Some people relocate to disaster-prone areas because many of those areas are relatively affordable. Home values in both risky and non-risky areas also continue to rise because the mortgage rate lock-in effect has exacerbated America’s shortage of homes for sale, putting upward pressure on values. This is based on a Redfin analysis of climate-risk scores from First Street and Redfin Estimates for roughly 93 million U.S. residential properties as of June 2024. Year-ago values represent June 2023, and pre-pandemic values represent June 2019. This data is subject to revision. Roughly 58 million U.S. homes face high heat risk, while roughly 15 million face high fire risk and roughly 13 million face high flood risk. Please note that some homes face more than one type of risk. To view the full report, including charts and more details on methodology, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/home-values-climate-risk-2024/ Contacts Contact RedfinRedfin Journalist Services:Isabelle Novakpress@redfin.com

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Obie Unveils Tenant Legal Liability Policy to Empower Real Estate Investors with Streamlined Tenant Risk Coverage

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Obie, a leader in modern insurance solutions for real estate investors, is proud to announce the launch of its Tenant Legal Liability (TLL) policy — a streamlined coverage option for protecting rental properties and their owners against tenant-related damage. TLL coverage seamlessly integrates into Obie’s online quoting platform at the time of new business, making adding this protection as simple as selecting a single checkbox. Obie’s TLL policy is among the first of its kind, offering landlords an additional layer of protection independent of tenant insurance requirements. By centralizing TLL within a landlord’s existing insurance plan, Obie simplifies policy management with a single bill, reducing administrative tasks and enabling investors to protect their portfolios with minimal effort. “Real estate investing often brings unforeseen challenges, and with the TLL policy, we’re delivering a solution that meets our customers’ needs for comprehensive, easy-to-manage coverage,” said Laura Olson, Chief Insurance Officer at Obie. To counteract these uncertainties, the TLL policy provides landlords additional coverage of up to $100,000 per occurrence, addressing scenarios where the tenant’s renters insurance may be inadequate or nonexistent. Specifically, this policy covers sudden and accidental tenant-caused damage to the property and landlord-owned furnishings. With no deductible, the TLL policy ensures that landlords face no out-of-pocket costs for covered incidents, providing a reliable, cost-effective layer of protection that integrates easily with existing Obie policies. Discover more about Obie’s TLL policy by exploring our FAQs, or take the next step toward enhanced insurance coverage with a quick, personalized quote today.

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Zillow Group Promotes Jun Choo to chief operating officer

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Zillow Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: Z and ZG), which is transforming the way people buy, sell, rent and finance homes, announced that tenured Zillow executive Jun Choo has been promoted to chief operating officer (COO).  In this role, Choo will now oversee Zillow’s for sale business strategy and operations including Enhanced Markets and Mortgages in addition to the company’s real estate industry product lines, sales and operations.  Choo joined Zillow Group in 2015 through the company’s acquisition of Trulia and has more than two decades of leadership and go-to-market experience in the real estate tech space. He has held leadership and strategy roles throughout sales, marketing and software over the last decade at Zillow. Most recently, he was Senior Vice President of Real Estate Software which encompasses Zillow Premier Agent sales, ShowingTime, dotloop, Zillow Showcase, Aryeo and other key B2B offerings for agents, brokers and multiple listing services.  “Jun has long been an instrumental leader in our company, consistently creating and scaling innovative solutions across our business,” said Zillow Group CEO Jeremy Wacksman. “He has been a key driver of our numerous technology investments to digitize the industry. Under his leadership, we will expand the integrated transaction experience to more customers – agents, movers, and industry professionals – and offer them a better way to transact in real estate.”  Throughout Choo’s tenure at Zillow Group, he has propelled the company’s mission forward – creating the integral Connections platform, inventing Premier Agent market-based pricing, and spearheading the ideation, development, and nationwide launch of the unparalleled Zillow Showcase product. Choo’s numerous accomplishments at Zillow are all anchored in identifying core customer needs, building excellent products to meet those needs, and rallying teams around bringing them to market effectively.  “I’m honored to step into this role and continue supporting our company’s growth. With more than two-thirds of U.S. homebuyers on Zillow, we are seizing our incredible opportunity to deliver a more tech-enabled and integrated experience to get more people home,” says Choo. “Our industry software offerings are unmatched and we will continue to invest in new solutions that help modernize the real estate experience through Zillow’s housing super app.” In addition to Choo’s appointment, Susan Daimler and Matt Daimler, president of Zillow and senior vice president of product, respectively, have decided to leave Zillow.  “We’re grateful for both Susan and Matt’s many contributions and leadership over the last 12 years,” said Wacksman. “They’ve each had a tremendous impact on Zillow’s growth and success and we wish them all the best.”   SOURCE Zillow Group, Inc.

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