2024 – Page 65

U.S. FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY INCREASES FROM 2022 BUT STILL BELOW PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS

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Foreclosure Starts Up from 2022, While Foreclosure Completions Decline; December 2023 Foreclosure Activity Declines from Previous Month; Q4 2023 Foreclosure Activity Declines from Previous Quarter ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property, and real estate data, released its Year-End 2023 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, which shows foreclosure filings— default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions — were reported on 357,062 U.S. properties in 2023, up 10 percent from 2022 and up 136 percent from 2021 but down 28 percent from 2019, before the pandemic shook up the market. Foreclosure filings in 2023 were also down 88 percent from a peak of nearly 2.9 million in 2010. Those 357,062 properties with foreclosure filings in 2023 represented 0.26 percent of all U.S. housing units, up slightly from 0.23 percent in 2022, but down from 0.36 percent in 2019 and down from a peak of 2.23 percent in 2010. “Reflecting on 2023, we see the recent rise in foreclosure activity as a market correction rather than a cause for alarm. It signals a return to more traditional patterns after years of volatility,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “Our data suggests that while foreclosure activity may fluctuate, it’s unlikely to approach the highs seen in the last decade. Instead, we foresee a market that is more reflective of broader economic trends, with foreclosure filings becoming a more predictable aspect of the housing landscape. This shift offers a silver lining — the opportunity for investors, homeowners, and industry professionals to plan and strategize with greater confidence and insight.” 2023 Year-End Historical Foreclosure Activity & Rates ATTOM’s year-end foreclosure report provides a unique count of properties with a foreclosure filing during the year based on publicly recorded and published foreclosure filings collected in more than 3,000 counties nationwide, accounting for more than 99 percent of the U.S. population – also available for licensing or customized reporting. The report also includes new data for December 2023, showing there were 30,314 U.S. properties with foreclosure filings, down 6 percent from the previous month and down 2 percent from a year ago. Foreclosure starts on the rise nationwide Lenders started the foreclosure process on 270,222 U.S. properties in 2023, up 9 percent from 2022, up 193 percent from 2021, but down 20 percent form 2019 and down 87 percent from a peak of 2,139,005 in 2009. States that saw the greatest number of foreclosure starts in 2023 included California (29,180 foreclosure starts); Texas (28,533 foreclosure starts); Florida (27,427 foreclosure starts); New York (17,330 foreclosure starts); and Illinois (13,764 foreclosure starts). Counter to the national trend, 6 states saw an increase in foreclosure starts from 2019. They included Indiana (up 73 percent); Idaho (up 70 percent); Michigan (up 15 percent); Nevada (up 10 percent); and Minnesota (up 9 percent). Those metropolitan statistical areas with a population greater than 1 million that saw the greatest number of foreclosure starts in 2023, included New York, New York (18,464 foreclosure starts); Chicago, Illinois (11,620 foreclosure starts); Houston, Texas (9,476 foreclosure starts); Los Angeles, California (8,835 foreclosure starts); and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (8,224 foreclosure starts). Bank repossessions decline slightly from 2022 Lenders repossessed 42,090 properties through foreclosures (REO) in 2023, down 2 percent from 2022 but down 71 percent from 2019 (143,955) and down 96 percent from a peak of 1,050,500 in 2010. States that saw the greatest number of REOs in 2023 included Illinois (3,814 REOs); Michigan (3,634 REOs); Pennsylvania (2,853 REOs); California (2,633 REOs); and New York (2,538 REOs). Those metropolitan statistical areas with a population greater than 1 million that saw the greatest number of REOs in 2023 included Chicago, Illinois (2,505 REOs); New York, New York (2,045 REOs); Detroit, Illinois (1,795 REOs); Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (1,130 REOs); and Baltimore, Maryland (872 REOs). New Jersey, Illinois, and Delaware post highest state foreclosure rates in 2023 States with the highest foreclosure rates in 2023 were New Jersey (0.46 percent of housing units with a foreclosure filing); Illinois (0.42 percent); Delaware (0.41 percent); Maryland (0.40 percent); and Ohio (0.38 percent). Rounding out the top 10 states with the highest foreclosure rates in 2023, were South Carolina (0.38 percent); Nevada (0.37 percent); Florida (0.37 percent); Connecticut (0.35 percent); and Indiana (0.32 percent). Cleveland, Atlantic City, and Lakeland post highest metro foreclosure rates in 2023 Among 223 metropolitan statistical areas with a population of at least 200,000, those with the highest foreclosure rates in 2023 were Cleveland, Ohio (0.62 percent of housing units with a foreclosure filing); Atlantic City, New Jersey (0.62 percent); Lakeland, Florida (0.56 percent); Columbia, South Carolina (0.55 percent); and Fayetteville, North Carolina (0.51 percent). Metro areas with a population greater than 1 million, including Cleveland, Ohio that had the highest foreclosure rates in 2023 were: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (0.48 percent); Jacksonville, Florida (0.47 percent); Las Vegas, Nevada (0.46 percent); and Chicago, Illinois (0.45 percent). Average time to foreclose decreases quarterly and annually U.S. properties foreclosed in the fourth quarter of 2023 had been in the foreclosure process an average of 720 days, a 7 percent decrease from the previous quarter and 16 percent decrease from a year ago. 2023 Year-End Avg Days to Complete Foreclosure States with the longest average time to foreclose in Q4 2023 were Louisiana (2,641 days); Hawaii (2,031 days); New York (2,006 days); Nevada (1,816 days); and Kentucky (1,643 days). Q4 2023 Foreclosure Activity High-Level Takeaways December 2023 Foreclosure Activity High-Level Takeaways Media Contact: Christine Stricker 949.748.8428 christine.stricker@attomdata.com

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Lima One Capital unveiled its 2024 Housing Outlook. The 26-page document predicts a more stable housing market than that of the previous 12 months. Read the full report here: https://promo.limaone.com/2024-housing-market-outlook-analysis “The 2023 Housing Market tested the patience of investors and homebuyers alike, as high interest rates and low inventory slowed the transaction rate significantly. But the market staved off the doom and gloom predictions of falling rents and declining home prices in most markets,” wrote Dameion Kennedy, Lima One’s in-house real estate research analyst. “The projections found in this outlook reflect a real estate market with slight improvements and more stability than last year.” Lima One experts compiled numerous data sources analyzing topics from inflation to economic growth to home prices to property development to investment prospects to construction starts to create projections and analysis for what to expect in the housing market in 2024. Insights in the Housing Outlook include: The Housing Outlook also specifically calls out the strength of single-family rental, the impact of the addition of more than 600,000 multi-family units to the market, and projected increases in single-family housing starts. Read the full report here: https://promo.limaone.com/2024-housing-market-outlook-analysis About Lima One Capital: Since its inception in 2011, Lima One Capital has funded over $9 billion in loans for real estate investors who are building, improving, and stabilizing neighborhoods across the nation. Lima One’s core loan products are New Construction loans for ground-up construction, in-fill, specs, and model homes; Fix and Flip, a 13-month bridge loan for investors who are buying, renovating, and selling properties; Rental property and portfolio loans for purchasing or refinancing residential rental properties; and Multifamily bridge lending for the purchase, rehab, or refinance of 5+ unit multifamily properties. For more information, visit limaone.com. Contact: Robert Neely rneely@limaone.com (864) 248-6066

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Mortgage Rate Drops Begin to Encourage Market Activity Net New Listing and Contract Volume Marginally Up Versus December 2022 Interest Rate Shock Continues to Keep Inventory at Historically Low Levels HouseCanary, Inc. (“HouseCanary”), a national brokerage known for its real estate valuation accuracy, released its December Market Pulse Report, showing that activity in terms of net new listings placed on the market is up 5% versus December 2022. With the Federal Reserve keeping rates steady in December and mortgage rates dropping slightly, affordability has marginally improved. As a result, the market saw the first signs of positive activity in terms of both net new listings and properties under contract. Cooling inflation and anticipated rate cuts this year signal further positive momentum is to come. However, given inventory remains at historically low levels, sales growth is expected to be gradual and modest. Jeremy Sicklick, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of HouseCanary, commented: “The slight increase in December listings indicates the impact of lower mortgage rates is beginning to trickle down into the market which comes as an optimistic sign as we head into the new year. With that said, any market turns are likely to be slow. The mortgage rate lock-in effect is going to keep many would-be sellers who secured pre-pandemic mortgage rates of sub 5% little incentive to move, meaning low inventory will be a continuing trend. As we enter the year ahead, promising signs that the Federal Reserve will cut rates persist, which will provide at least some relief for homebuyers looking to purchase in 2024.” Key Takeaways: Methodology The Market Pulse Report is an ongoing review of proprietary data and insights from HouseCanary’s nationwide platform, covering 22 listing-derived metrics and comparing data between December 2022 and December 2023.

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Affordability and job growth push the Great Lakes, Midwest regions to the forefront of the forecast Buffalo, New York, will be the hottest major housing market this year, according to a new analysis by Zillow®. Affordability is the most powerful force driving real estate, bringing lower-cost markets in the Great Lakes, Midwest and South regions to the top of Zillow’s 2024 rankings. “Housing markets are healthiest where affordable home prices and strong employment are giving young hopefuls a real shot at buying and starting to build equity,” said Anushna Prakash, data scientist for Zillow Economic Research. “I’m cautiously optimistic that the housing market will get back on stable footing in 2024 — we shouldn’t see the massive price spikes of the early pandemic or fast-rising mortgage rates of recent years.” This ranking of the nation’s 50 most populous metros takes into account Zillow’s forecast for local home value growth and the speed at which home sellers are entering contracts with buyers. It also considers job growth per new home permitted and growth in owner-occupied households. Among the front-runners, Buffalo has the highest number of new jobs per new home permitted — a measure of expected demand. New jobs often mean new residents, which increases competition and drives prices up unless new construction can match that additional demand. Inventory is moving extremely quickly in Cincinnati, and Columbus is home to the fastest expected rise in owner-occupied households, an indication of family formation and population growth. Housing costs hit record highs for both buyers and renters in 2023. This made buying and selling an expensive proposition, even for homeowners with plenty of equity. Zillow’s most popular markets in 2023 were relatively affordable, and a Zillow study of United Van Lines data shows relocating households were attracted to areas where houses were roughly $7,500 less expensive than in the area they were leaving. Affordability should improve in 2024, but it is still going to be the biggest driver of the housing market. Competition for homes is already high in affordable Great Lakes and Midwest markets. Homes listed in these areas tend to go under contract faster than the national average. Charlotte was dubbed Zillow’s hottest market for 2023, and Cleveland and Atlanta also returned from last year’s top 10. San Antonio took a long fall to the 49th spot, after ranking 13th last year and fourth in 2022. Latest stats for Zillow’s hottest markets in 2024 Market Typical Home Value Mortgage Payment (5% Down) Typical Rent Days on Market Buffalo, NY $248,445 $1,792 $1,257 14 Cincinnati, OH $270,826 $1,959 $1,527 11 Columbus, OH $301,138 $2,177 $1,431 11 Indianapolis, IN $268,125 $1,944 $1,468 19 Providence, RI $455,609 $3,288 $2,039 14 Atlanta, GA $373,212 $2,701 $1,903 26 Charlotte, NC $371,844 $2,688 $1,791 16 Cleveland, OH $215,597 $1,556 $1,330 12 Orlando, FL $388,048 $2,806 $2,013 23 Tampa, FL $375,338 $2,717 $2,091 24 United States(Average) $347,415 $2,514 $1,982 21 SOURCE Zillow

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Veros Real Estate Solutions (Veros®), an industry leader in enterprise risk management and collateral valuation services, released its 2023 Q4 VeroFORECASTSM that anticipates nationwide home prices, on average are expected to increase 2.4% over the next 12 months, compared to last quarter’s forecast of a 2.2% increase, signaling a continued rise in prices. VeroFORECASTSM evaluates home prices in over three hundred of the nation’s largest housing markets, and Veros is committed to the data science of predicting home value based on rigorous analysis of the fundamentals and interrelationships of numerous economic, housing, and geographic variables pertaining to home value. As we step into the new year, the echoes of 2023’s housing market challenges continue to reverberate, with low supply and unaffordability remaining at the forefront. In its recent December 2023 meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain current interest rates but hinted at three potential rate cuts in 2024. Mortgage rates have already dipped to 6.6% in response, yet predictions suggest they won’t fall below the mid-six percent range. While mortgage rates have dropped by more than a whole percentage point from the highs reached in October 2023, the overall affordability of homes remains a concern. Even when rates were lower than 6.6% during most of the first half of 2023, they failed to entice sufficient buyers or sellers into the market. While one might expect that mortgage-free homeowners could contribute to the supply, hurdles such as limited options and high prices persist. At least a third of mortgage-free homes are owned by baby boomers and this percentage is expected to rise in the coming years. Warmer climate destinations like Florida, a preferred choice for retirees, have become increasingly costly. Moreover, older Americans are choosing to continue to work and not give up their current lifestyles. Those expecting a tsunami of homes to hit the market as baby boomers retire and downsize will have to wait a while. On the flip side, the housing market sees sustained demand, fueled by millennials forming households and first-time buyers eagerly awaiting favorable opportunities. First-time homebuyers are actively exploring affordable destinations, with a particular focus on the northeast and Midwest regions. Cities in these areas still offer not only affordable housing options but also a lower cost of living than in coastal regions, a higher quality of life, promising economic prospects, and family-oriented communities. The rise of remote work has made it feasible for individuals to live in more affordable areas while maintaining employment with companies located elsewhere. Just a year ago, the top-performing markets based on the VeroFORECASTSM were in North Carolina, Nebraska, and Kansas. However, the landscape has shifted, with the latest forecast placing Rochester, NY, as the leading market. Three cities in Ohio, two in Pennsylvania, and one each in Connecticut, New Hampshire, and Illinois feature on the top 10 list. Greensboro in North Carolina is the sole market outside the Midwest or northeast to make the cut. Each of these metros is projected to appreciate in the 5.3% to 7% range. Rank Metropolitan Statistical Area Forecast 1 ROCHESTER, NY 7.0% 2 AKRON, OH 6.0% 3 ALLENTOWN-BETHLEHEM-EASTON, PA-NJ 5.9% 4 GREENSBORO-HIGH POINT, NC 5.8% 5 LANCASTER, PA 5.7% 6 CANTON-MASSILLON, OH 5.7% 7 CINCINNATI, OH-KY-IN 5.6% 8 HARTFORD-EAST HARTFORD-MIDDLETOWN, CT 5.5% 9 MANCHESTER-NASHUA, NH 5.4% 10 SPRINGFIELD, IL 5.4% Former worst performers, San Francisco, San Jose, and Seattle are shedding that title and displaying signs of recovery. Five of the worst ten performing cities based on the VeroFORECASTSM are in Texas. Additionally, cities in Utah, Idaho, Louisiana, and Nevada have also found a place among the list of worst performers. The current forecast projects a modest depreciation for each of these ten metros, falling within the range of -2% to -5.5%. This shift in rankings highlights the evolving nature of the real estate market, as some areas previously struggling begin to witness a change in fortunes while others grapple with ongoing challenges. Rank Metropolitan Statistical Area Forecast 1 WACO, TX -5.5% 2 MIDLAND, TX -4.0% 3 ST. GEORGE, UT -3.3% 4 BROWNSVILLE-HARLINGEN, TX -3.0% 5 BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR, TX -2.7% 6 AUSTIN-ROUND ROCK-GEORGETOWN, TX -2.6% 7 LAKE CHARLES, LA -2.5% 8 IDAHO FALLS, ID -2.3% 9 BOISE CITY, ID -2.1% 10 LAS VEGAS-HENDERSON-PARADISE, NV -1.9% Source: Veros Real Estate Solutions