2024 – Page 21

U.S. FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY DECLINES BOTH MONTHLY AND ANNUALLY IN AUGUST 2024

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Foreclosure Starts Decrease 5.1 Percent from Last Month; Completed Foreclosures Decrease 12 Percent from Last Month ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property, and real estate data and analytics, released its August 2024 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, which shows there were a total of 30,227 U.S. properties with foreclosure filings — default notices, scheduled auctions or bank repossessions — down 5.3 percent from a month ago and down 11 percent from a year ago. “Foreclosure activity has remained relatively steady in recent months, with both foreclosure starts and completed foreclosures declining in August,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “While overall activity is significantly lower than the peaks seen during the 2008 financial crisis, when filings exceeded 300,000 per month, the current economic environment, coupled with rising interest rates and affordability challenges, suggests a continued focus on potential housing market instability.” Nevada, Florida, and Illinois post highest foreclosure ratesNationwide, one in every 4,662 housing units had a foreclosure filing in August 2024. States with the highest foreclosure rates were Nevada (one in every 2,473 housing units with a foreclosure filing); Florida (one in every 2,605 housing units); Illinois (one in every 2,837 housing units); South Carolina (one in every 2,877 housing units); and New Jersey (one in every 3,227 housing units). Among the 224 metropolitan statistical areas with a population of at least 200,000, those with the highest foreclosure rates in August 2024 were Lakeland, FL (one in every 1,245 housing units with a foreclosure filing); Chico, CA (one in every 1,526 housing units); Columbia, SC (one in every 1,796 housing units); Bakersfield, CA (one in every 1,972 housing units); and Las Vegas, NV (one in every 2,016 housing units). Other than Las Vegas, those metropolitan areas with a population greater than 1 million with the worst foreclosure rates in August 2024 were: Riverside, CA (one in every 2,423 housing units); Miami, FL (one in every 2,429 housing units); Chicago, IL (one in every 2,450 housing units); and Orlando, FL (one in every 2,595 housing units). Greatest numbers of foreclosure starts in Florida, California, and TexasLenders started the foreclosure process on 20,747 U.S. properties in August 2024, down 5.1 percent from last month and down 9.4 percent from a year ago. States that had the greatest number of foreclosure starts in August 2024 included: Florida (2,668 foreclosure starts); California (2,443 foreclosure starts); Texas (1,857 foreclosure starts); New York (1,328 foreclosure starts); and Illinois (1,208 foreclosure starts). Those major metropolitan areas with a population greater than 1 million that had the greatest number of foreclosure starts in August 2024 included: New York, NY (1,332 foreclosure starts); Chicago, IL (1,069 foreclosure starts); Miami, FL (743 foreclosure starts); Los Angeles, CA (675 foreclosure starts); and Houston, TX (507 foreclosure starts). Foreclosure completion numbers decrease from last month and last yearLenders repossessed 2,889 U.S. properties through completed foreclosures (REOs) in August 2024, down 12.0 percent from last month and down 13.9 percent from a year ago. States that had the greatest number of REOs in August 2024, included: Pennsylvania (266 REOs); California (229 REOs); Illinois (224 REOs); Michigan (206 REOs); and Florida (202 REOs). Those major metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) with a population greater than 1 million that saw the greatest number of REOs in August 2024 included: Chicago, IL (154 REOs); Detroit, MI (114 REOs); New York, NY (112 REOs); Pittsburgh, PA (100 REOs); and Baltimore, MD (56 REOs). Media Contact:Megan Huntmegan.hunt@attomdata.com SOURCE ATTOM

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Competition among buyers is likely to extend into the fall thanks to improved affordability Lower mortgage rates and rising inventory are giving home buyers a window of opportunity at an unusual time of year, according to the latest market report from Zillow®. Affordability has improved substantially for home buyers, and competition among them could extend into the fall instead of fading away as is typical at this time of year. “Late summer may be an opportunity for buyers who have been waiting in the wings for a monthly mortgage payment they can qualify for,” said Skylar Olsen, Zillow chief economist. “Buyers have more options to choose from for two reasons. For one, it’s easier to qualify for more of the homes on the market now that mortgage rates are a bit lower. Beyond that, more inventory is becoming available — enough to improve buyer negotiating power. Attractive properties in hot markets are still selling quickly, but some metros — or neighborhoods within them — have flipped further in favor of buyers.” Mortgage rate declines have made buying a home roughly affordable again at the national level (meaning monthly payments generally take less than one-third of median household income), assuming a buyer puts 20% down and before taxes and insurance are accounted for. Nationwide, the monthly payment on a typical home purchase has fallen by more than $100 since a peak in May. That drop is more than $300 a month in the ultraexpensive San Francisco metro area. Beyond lower costs, a number of metrics are moving in buyers’ favor. The Zillow market heat index shifted from being in favor of sellers into neutral territory in July. For the past two years, sellers held their edge nationally until October. Homes are taking longer to sell than in recent history, but shorter than in pre-pandemic times. Homes that sold in August took 20 days to go pending, two more than in July, but about six days faster than at this time of year before the pandemic. And while inventory growth has slowed, nearly 1.18 million homes are on the market, more than any month since September 2020. Lower rates could stall or slow a normal autumn cooldown, because right now buyers are more likely to be motivated by lower rates than sellers are. Some signals are already pointing to an altered trajectory in the housing market. The share of listings on Zillow with a price cut ticked down from July to August, reversing an upward trend of rising every month since March. Just under 26% of homes on the market had a price cut in August. That’s relatively high for this time of year, but not a record, as seen in recent months. Opportunities for buyers Opportunities for sellers SOURCE Zillow

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PropStream Announces New AVM & AI Innovations PropStream, the leading real estate data provider, announced another enhancement in its lineup of updates powered by machine learning AI—AI Property Values and AVM (Automated Valuation Model). By upgrading the Estimated Value function (AVM) powered by machine learning, PropStream can provide the most up-to-date property values by pulling them from several data sources and updating them with its machine learning AI as soon as they’re available. “PropStream is committed to transforming how real estate data is collected and used with the integration of new predictive AI features,” said PropStream President Brian Tepfer. “Our first release is a new AVM powered by machine learning—giving our users an edge in their property research and comping to collect the most precise, diverse, and dynamic property valuations – empowering them to make educated decisions.” From adding the Demographics datasets to now incorporating a cutting-edge machine learning AVM, PropStream is leading the charge in optimizing real estate data for practical, modern use. PropStream has more exciting updates in the works, so stay tuned! Also, remember to activate your 7-day free PropStream trial to see the new AVM in action. To learn more about this update and how the AI model is used, check out this blog. About PropStream: PropStream, a Stewart Company, is the leader in multi-sourced data aggregation, allowing real estate professionals to get the most targeted leads. In business since 2006, PropStream has data for over 155 million properties nationwide. Upcoming enhancements utilize the power of Predictive Real Estate Data to pave the way for new features, proprietary AI predictive analytics, and hundreds of filtering combinations (including 20 Lead Lists). PropStream helps real estate professionals find the best off-market leads and market to them in the least amount of time. PropStream was acquired by Stewart Information Services Corporation (NYSE:STC) in November 2021 and has been named a HousingWire Tech 100 Honoree four years in a row since 2021. Contacts PropStream Marketing1-877-204-9040

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Two Bright Spots: Almost Two in Three Expect Mortgage Rates to Drop; More Than Four in Ten Say 5% Mortgage Rates Would Compel Them to Buy Nearly half of prospective home buyers are struggling to pay basic home costs and say home insurance affordability is a major factor in where they decide to move, according to the results of a survey of 1,818 US adults across the country released today. The survey was conducted by Mphasis Digital Risk, a leading provider of origination, diligence, quality control and artificial intelligence services for the mortgage, consumer lending and financial services industries. Despite their concerns regarding insurance and costs associated with housing, Americans are more positive regarding the direction of interest rates, and what they call their “magic number” – representing the mortgage rate that would compel them to make a home purchase. More than four in ten (42%) cited a 5% rate as the “sweet spot”; more than one in four (27%) said 4%, and one in five (20%) said the magic number was 6%. In addition, Americans are generally optimistic about the general direction of the mortgage market. Almost two out of three people (64%) say they are either “very encouraged” (21%) or “somewhat encouraged” (43%) that mortgage rates will be dropping soon. However, a significant number of respondents, 40%, said they would put off buying a home until after November’s presidential election is settled. The largest share of respondents, 30%, blamed “inflation” as a driving factor of high mortgage rates; 23% blamed the current president, while 13% blamed the Federal Reserve. The surprisingly large number of people (48%) challenged by home-related expenses, including maintenance, utilities, taxes and fees, is underscored by 39% of those surveyed who said they have seen a “significant increase” in their monthly payments (which include taxes and insurance). In addition, more than one in four (27%) Americans, across all income groups including mass affluent and above, said they have been forced to arrange a payment plan or other arrangement to assist in making their monthly payments. Concerns about the fast-rising costs of home insurance, driven by increasingly common extreme weather events, is another major factor on the minds of would-be home buyers: A full 47% say home insurance costs will have “a lot” (18%) or “a good deal” (29%) of influence in where they decide to move. One-quarter (25%) said they are considering moving due to extreme weather in their area, and 26% said they knew of someone who was forced to move because of home insurance costs. “Many prospective buyers started questioning the American dream of home ownership as inflation brough mortgage rates to a cyclical peak of 8% in October 2023, but now rates are down more than 1.5% from this peak,” said Jeff Taylor, Co-Founder and Managing Director of Mphasis Digital Risk. “We’re now getting closer to homebuyers’ comfort zone of low-6%, high-5% rates, and September’s anticipated Fed cuts should help buyer sentiment. This is why industry estimates call for a robust 2025 with $2 trillion in expected mortgage originations.” Just under 30% of respondents are considering a home purchase in the second half of the year. But buyers are feeling the effects of a seller’s market as existing home supply drives prices upward, with more than 20% saying they’ve been searching for more than two years and finding it, “a bit depressing,” and 17% reporting that, “It’s often on my mind and makes me feel sad and angry.” About Mphasis Digital Risk, LLCMphasis Digital Risk, LLC is a leading end-to-end origination, risk, compliance, and technology services company that offers differentiated solutions to the mortgage, consumer lending, and other regulated industries. The individual talents of Digital Risk’s thousands of analysts are amplified by the company’s proprietary technology and advanced analytics performed using the Making Mortgages Safe™ solutions suite. Mphasis Digital Risk, LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of Mphasis Ltd. To learn more, visit www.DigitalRisk.com. SOURCE Mphasis

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Panel Also Shares Thoughts on Most Impactful Potential Policy Reforms to Boost Housing Supply Following home price growth of 6.0% in 2023, a panel of housing experts forecasts annual national home price growth of 4.7% in 2024 and 3.1% in 2025, according to the Q3 2024 Fannie Mae (OTCQB: FNMA) Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES), produced in partnership with Pulsenomics, LLC. The HPES polls over 100 experts across the housing and mortgage industry and academia for forecasts of national home price percentage changes in each of the coming five calendar years, as measured by the Fannie Mae Home Price Index (FNM-HPI). The panel’s latest estimates of national home price growth are higher than last quarter’s expectations of 4.3% for 2024 but lower than the previous quarter’s expectations of 3.2% for 2025. This quarter, the ESR Group also surveyed panelists on the impact of potential zoning and permitting reforms at state and local levels to increase construction of new homes and, thereby, the supply of homes available to buyers and renters. While most panelists believe that reforms implemented to date are likely to have a positive effect on new construction within the next five years, they were generally split on whether that effect would be “moderate” or “insignificant.” A plurality of panelists suggested that hastening the construction permitting process would have the greatest positive impact on housing supply if broadly enacted, following by expanding zoning for multifamily housing developments and enabling more “missing middle” or “light touch density” housing construction. However, 63% of panelists are “not confident at all” that the initiatives they think would be most effective will be enacted widely within the next five years. Complete results of the Q3 2024 HPES can be found here. “Recent measures of home price growth, including our own, have continued to come in stronger than previously expected, as reflected by the 100-plus HPES panelists who, on average, once again modestly upgraded their home price outlook for 2024,” said Mark Palim, Fannie Mae Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Strong home price appreciation has persisted despite purchase affordability remaining stretched for the vast majority of consumers, a dynamic that is still primarily a function of inadequate supply. Our panelists overwhelmingly agreed that there is a fundamental lack of housing in the United States relative to underlying demographic factors – and, on average, believe the nation to be short approximately 2.8 million homes. We’ve previously estimated the shortfall to be more than 4 million. The panelists also shared that they think speeding up construction permitting processes, increasing density around transit corridors, and allowing more ‘missing middle’-type housing are the local and state policy reforms likeliest to increase housing production. However, most remain apprehensive about the near-term prospects of these sorts of reforms being enacted broadly enough to have a meaningful effect on supply and housing affordability.” Terry Loebs, founder of Pulsenomics, added: “Despite robust home value growth in the first half of 2024, our panelists anticipate a slowdown in price appreciation for the remainder of the year and beyond. While lower interest rates could incentivize some homeowners to sell, the deep-rooted housing supply and affordability crises will likely persist, even with a more accommodative monetary policy.” To receive e-mail updates regarding future HPES updates and other economic and housing market research from Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research Group, please click here. SOURCE Fannie Mae

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New York City and Chicago Areas Remain Vulnerable to Housing Issues Despite Strong Overall Markets; South Region Faces Less Exposure While West Has More ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property, and real estate data, released a Special Housing Risk Report spotlighting county-level housing markets around the United States that are more or less vulnerable to declines, based on home affordability, underwater mortgages and other measures in the second quarter of 2024. The report shows that California, New Jersey and Illinois once again had the highest concentrations of the most-at-risk markets in the country, with some of the biggest clusters in the New York City and Chicago areas, as well as inland California. Less-vulnerable markets remained spread mainly throughout the South, along with parts of the Midwest. The second-quarter patterns – derived from gaps in home affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures and unemployment – revealed that nearly half of the counties around the U.S. considered most exposed to potential drop-offs were in California, New Jersey and Illinois. As with earlier periods over the past few years, those concentrations dominated the list of areas more at risk of downturns. County-level housing markets on that list included seven in around New York City, five in the Chicago metro area and 12 in areas of California mostly away from the Pacific coast. The rest were scattered largely around the South as well as other parts of the Midwest and Northeast. At the other end of the risk spectrum, close to half the markets considered least likely to decline fell in Virginia, Wisconsin and Tennessee. They included four in the Washington, DC, area and three each in the Richmond, VA, and Nashville, TN, metro areas. “The housing market boom continues to gain momentum, thanks to another Springtime boost. However, some markets show signs of potential instability, which suggests a mixed level of risk, particularly in certain regions that repeatedly show signs of concern,” said Rob Barber, CEO of ATTOM. “While these observations don’t indicate immediate red flags or warning signs of an impending downturn, they do highlight areas of relative risk. With the housing market still facing challenges, it’s crucial to closely monitor regions where key indicators suggest a higher likelihood of issues.” Counties were considered more or less at risk based on the percentage of homes facing possible foreclosure, the portion with mortgage balances that exceeded estimated property values, the percentage of average local wages required to pay for major home ownership expenses on median-priced single-family homes and local unemployment rates. The conclusions were drawn from an analysis of the most recent home affordability, equity and foreclosure reports prepared by ATTOM. Unemployment rates came from federal government data. Rankings were based on a combination of those four categories in 589 counties around the United States with sufficient data to analyze in the second quarter of 2024. Counties were ranked in each category, from lowest to highest, with the overall conclusion based on a combination of the four ranks. Significant gaps in risk continued in different parts of the U.S. during the second quarter of 2024 as key housing market metrics have gotten either better or worse this year. Those measures included home prices, equity and affordability. Vulnerable housing markets still clustered around Chicago, New York City and inland California The metropolitan areas around New York, NY, and Chicago, IL, as well as broad stretches of California, had 24 of the 51 U.S. counties considered most vulnerable in the second quarter of 2024 to housing market troubles. The counties were among 589 around the nation with enough data to analyze. (The report includes 51 counties at either end of the risk spectrum, instead of the usual 50 that have been included in prior reports, because of ties in rankings.) The most at-risk counties included three in New York City (Kings County, which covers Brooklyn, Richmond County, which covers Staten Island, and Bronx County) and four in the New York City suburbs (Essex, Passaic, Sussex and Union counties, all in New Jersey). It also included Cook, Kendall, McHenry and Will counties in Illinois and Lake County in Indiana. Another 12 were in California: Butte County (Chico), Humboldt County (Eureka), Solano County (outside Sacramento) and Shasta County (Redding) in the northern part of the state, plus Kern County (Bakersfield), Kings County (outside Fresno), Madera County (outside Fresno), Merced County, San Joaquin County (Stockton) and Stanislaus County (Modesto) in central California. Two others, Riverside and San Bernardino counties, were in southern California. At-risk counties have worse levels of affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures and unemployment Major home-ownership costs (mortgage payments, property taxes and insurance) on median-priced single-family homes were considered seriously unaffordable in 33 of the 51 counties deemed most vulnerable to market drop-offs in the second quarter of 2024. That means those expenses consumed at least 43 percent of average local wages. Nationwide, major expenses on typical homes sold in the second quarter required 35.1 percent of average local wages. The highest percentages in the most at-risk markets were in Kings County (Brooklyn), NY (111.8 percent of average local wages needed for major ownership costs); Riverside County, CA (74.4 percent); Washington County (St. George), UT (70.4 percent); Richmond County (Stated Island), NY (66.8 percent) and Passaic County, NY (outside New York City) (65.3 percent). At least 5 percent of residential mortgages were underwater in the second quarter of 2024 in 34 of the 51 most-at-risk counties. Nationwide, 5.1 percent of mortgages fell into that category, with homeowners owing more on their mortgages than the estimated value of their properties. Those with the highest underwater rates among the 51 most at-risk counties were Tangipahoa Parish, LA (east of Baton Rouge) (26.1 percent underwater); Peoria County, IL (16.3 percent); Lake County (Gary), IN (13.2 percent); Orleans Parish (New Orleans), LA (13.1 percent) and Montgomery County (Dayton), OH (10.9 percent). More than one of every 1,000 residential properties faced a foreclosure action in the second quarter of 2024 in 39 of the 51 most vulnerable counties. Nationwide, one in 1,575 homes were in that