HOME OWNERSHIP SLIGHTLY MORE AFFORDABLE ACROSS U.S. IN THIRD QUARTER BUT STILL DIFFICULT FOR AVERAGE WORKERS
Major Home-Ownership Expenses Consume 34 Percent of National Average Wage; Portion Ticks Downward as Home-Price Spike Eases and Mortgage Rates Drop; Historical Affordability Also Inches Up While Remaining Weak ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property data, and real estate analytics, released its third-quarter 2024 U.S. Home Affordability Report showing that median-priced single-family homes and condos remain less affordable in the third quarter of 2024 compared to historical averages in 99 percent of counties around the nation with sufficient data to analyze. The latest trend continues a pattern, dating back to early 2022, of home ownership requiring historically large portions of wages as U.S. home prices keep reaching new highs. The report also shows that major expenses on median-priced homes currently consume 33.5 percent of the average national wage. That level marks a slight improvement over the second quarter of this year but remains virtually unchanged from a year ago – and still above the common 28 percent lending guideline. Despite small gains in both the historic and current affordability measures, the third-quarter figures represent ongoing markers of how home ownership remains a financial stretch for average workers around the nation. They come as the national median home price has spiked to $365,000 this quarter and mortgage rates, while declining, remain above 6 percent, helping to keep ownership expenses above what lenders prefer when issuing mortgages. The portion of average wages nationwide required for typical mortgage payments, property taxes and insurance still sits 12 points above a low point reached early in 2021, right before home-mortgage shot up from the lowest levels in decades. “Home affordability continues to show signs of easing, which lightens the pressure on house hunters struggling to find a place that fits their budget,” said Rob Barber, CEO for ATTOM. “The cost of owning a home across much of the nation remains a tough go for average workers, exceeding levels preferred by banks and other lenders. But it is at least tracking in the right direction. That’s mainly because of declining interest rates.” Barber added that last week’s half-point cut in the benchmark interest rate by the Federal Reserve “should brighten the prospects for buyers, as long as it doesn’t spike demand too much and lead to even higher prices amid the ongoing tight supply of homes for sale around the U.S.” The small shift toward better affordability this quarter comes amid a mix of forces generally, but not completely, working in favor of home buyers. On the downside for house hunters are home prices and property taxes that continue to rise across the country in 2024, helping to keep affordability at historical lows. At the same time, though, a steady decline in home-mortgage rates in 2024, from more than 7 percent down to close to 6 percent, is acting as a counterweight. In addition, the national median home has increased at a slower pace this quarter versus the prior three-months. The result over the Summer months has been a 3 percent decrease in the typical cost of major home-ownership expenses at a time when average wages have grown. That combination is pushing affordability back in a better direction for house hunters. While major expenses as a portion of wages is unchanged annually, it has declined for the second straight quarter. The report determined affordability for average wage earners by calculating the amount of income needed to meet major monthly home ownership expenses — including mortgage payments, property taxes and insurance — on a median-priced single-family home and condo, assuming a 20 percent down payment and a 28 percent maximum “front-end” debt-to-income ratio. That required income was then compared to annualized average weekly wage data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Compared to historical levels, median home ownership costs in 575 of the 578 counties analyzed in the third quarter of 2024 are less affordable than in the past. That is mostly unchanged from both the second quarter of 2024 and the third quarter of 2023, when 574 of the same counties were historically unaffordable. Historic measures remain negative as the portion of average local wages consumed by major home-ownership expenses on typical homes are considered unaffordable during the third quarter of 2024 in about 80 percent of the 578 counties in the report, based on the 28 percent guideline. Counties with the largest populations that are unaffordable in the third quarter are Los Angeles County, CA; Cook County (Chicago), IL; Maricopa County (Phoenix), AZ; San Diego County, CA, and Orange County, CA (outside Los Angeles). The most populous of the counties with affordable levels of major expenses on median-priced homes during the third quarter of 2024 are Harris County (Houston), TX; Wayne County (Detroit), MI; Philadelphia County, PA; Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), OH, and Allegheny County (Pittsburgh), PA. View Q3 2024 U.S. Home Affordability Heat Map National median home price up quarterly and annually in majority of markets The national median price for single-family homes and condos has risen to $365,000 in the third quarter of 2024. The latest figure represents a 1.4 percent increase over the second quarter of this year and is 6.6 percent above the typical price in the third quarter of 2023, although the pace of increase has slowed compared. (Typical values shot up 7 percent from the first to the second quarter of this year). At the county level, median home prices have climbed from the second quarter to the third quarter of this year in 363, or 62.8 percent, of the 578 counties included in the report. Annually, they are up in 492, or 85.1 percent of those markets. Data was analyzed for counties with a population of at least 100,000 with sufficient data and at least 50 single-family home and condo sales in the third quarter of 2024. Among the 46 counties in the report with a population of at least 1 million, the biggest year-over-year increases in median prices during the third quarter of 2024 are in Wayne County (Detroit), MI (up 12.3 percent annually); Suffolk County (Long
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