CoreLogic: Annual Home Price Slowdown Continues in September

CoreLogic®, a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for September 2024. U.S. home price growth continued to cool, slowing to 3.4% year-over-year in September. Compared with the month prior, home prices rebounded to post a very slight uptick (0.02%) following months of modest monthly declines. Taken together, home price levels have been relatively flat since late summer. Besides the uncertainty regarding the U.S. election and mortgage rate volatility, the mixed signals around the current state of the U.S. economy may be dampening demand and price appreciation. According to the latest numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy added just 12,000 jobs in October 2024, the fewest in almost four years. On the other hand, the most recent consumer spending data showed solid continued spending and an upbeat consumer outlook. “Like much of the housing market at the moment, home prices remained relatively flat coming into the fall,” said CoreLogic Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp. “Despite some improved affordability from lower mortgage rates during August, homebuyers mostly kept on the sidelines and decided to wait out the mortgage rate drop for a potentially better opportunity next year, when the current volatility, uncertainty surrounding the election’s outcome, and the impact on longer-term rates may be slightly clearer. And while the mortgage rate and economic outlook is full of questions, home prices are likely to maintain their leveled path until early next year when buyers return to the housing market.” Top Takeaways: The next CoreLogic HPI press release, featuring October 2024 data, is scheduled to be issued on December 3, 2024, at 8 a.m. EST. Source: CoreLogic

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Fred Matera Promoted to Chief Executive Officer of CoreVest

CoreVest American Finance Lender, LLC (“CoreVest”), a leading lender to residential real estate investors nationwide and a division of Redwood Trust, Inc. (“Redwood”), is pleased to announce the promotion of Fred Matera to Chief Executive Officer. A tenured leader at Redwood, Fred has served as CoreVest’s Co-Head for the last year and has been an integral part of Redwood’s leadership team since 2019. In his new role, Fred will continue to report to Dash Robinson, Redwood’s President. As Chief Executive Officer of CoreVest, Fred will be responsible for overseeing all aspects of CoreVest’s operating strategy, including product growth and distribution. His focus will also include driving innovation and expanding distribution channels, ensuring that CoreVest remains committed to delivering exceptional value to its customers and stakeholders. Fred has demonstrated extensive leadership in managing both operating and investment platforms, most recently as Chief Investment Officer of Redwood in addition to his role as Co-Head of CoreVest. During this time, he has expanded CoreVest’s operating footprint, driving forward strategies that have significantly enhanced the platform’s market position. Fred boasts over 30 years of experience in residential lending and fixed income markets, including the last six with Redwood where he also spent time leading Redwood’s Residential Consumer Mortgage Banking platform. “I am pleased to announce the promotion of Fred Matera to Chief Executive Officer of CoreVest,” said Christopher Abate, Chief Executive Officer of Redwood. “Fred’s proven track record and market expertise will be instrumental as CoreVest enters a new stage of growth. With the market demanding more of CoreVest’s products and services, the business is poised to scale under Fred’s leadership.” “I am honored to take on this role and lead such a talented team,” said Fred Matera. “I look forward to building on our successes and exploring new opportunities that will support our borrowers and propel CoreVest forward.”

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Redfin Reports 28% of Houses For Sale Are Newly Built, the Lowest Share in 3 Years

New-construction homes are making up a smaller portion of total inventory as builders back off and more homeowners list their houses for sale Newly built homes made up 28% of single-family homes for sale nationwide in the third quarter, the lowest level in three years, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. That’s down from 30.5% a year earlier and a record-high 34.4% at the start of 2022. The share of houses for sale that are newly built has dropped from its peak for several reasons: Still, newly built homes make up a significantly higher portion of for-sale inventory than before the pandemic. That’s because the share shot up so much during the pandemic, going from roughly 17% in 2019 to nearly 30% by the end of 2021. Newly built homes have made up an outsized portion of homes for sale in the last four years because the supply of new-construction homes soared in 2022 and 2023, while the supply of existing homes dwindled. Inventory of existing homes fell over that period as mortgage rates rose and the lock-in effect took hold. The surge in newly built homes, meanwhile, was caused by builders responding to robust homebuying demand brought on by ultra-low mortgage rates and remote work. While building has since slowed, builders are still completing projects they started in the past few years. Looking forward, the share of inventory made up of newly built homes may fall slightly further as permits dwindle. But the share should remain higher than pre-pandemic levels because mortgage rates are likely to remain elevated, keeping the supply of existing homes from surging. To view the full report, including a chart, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/q3-2024-new-construction-homes/ Contacts Contact RedfinRedfin Journalist Services:Isabelle Novakpress@redfin.com

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Buying like it’s 2021: Nearly half of recent buyers have a mortgage rate below 5%

New Zillow survey data finds many buyers are securing lower mortgage rates from home builders, sellers, or borrowing from friends or family members Almost half of recent home buyers with a mortgage secured a rate below 5%, a recent Zillow® survey shows. Current mortgage rates are hovering near 7%, yet many home buyers who purchased a home in the past year thought outside the box to unlock homeownership. Mortgage rates surged from historic lows of 2.65% in 2021 to decade-long highs of 7.79% by the fall of 2023. This directly impacted home shoppers’ buying power. The typical mortgage payment rose 115% from pre-pandemic times to a recent peak in May 2024. The unpredictable mortgage-rate landscape presents hurdles for home buyers, restricting their choices and, in some cases, preventing them from entering the housing market altogether. Despite these challenges, determined buyers are finding creative ways to afford their dream of homeownership. Among recent buyers, 45% managed to secure a rate below 5%, Zillow’s survey data shows. More than one-third (35%) of these recent buyers could get a lower rate because the seller or home builder offered them special financing. About one-quarter either made their offer contingent on a rate buydown (26%), refinanced to a lower rate after buying (25%), or borrowed from a friend or family member (23%). “This surprising finding really underscores the creativity of both buyers and sellers navigating today’s dynamic real estate market,” said Amanda Pendleton, Zillow’s home trends expert. “Buyers are finding innovative ways to secure a lower mortgage rate, but sellers are also coming up with financing solutions to make their property more attractive to a potential buyer. Prospective home buyers should explore all the ways they can reduce their monthly payment to bring homeownership within reach.” Here are a few ways to secure a lower mortgage rate: Focus on credit score. A higher credit score often leads to a lower interest rate. Buyers should prioritize boosting their credit score and maintaining it all the way through closing by refraining from opening new lines of credit or making large purchases. One way to build credit is through Zillow’s rent reporting service. It allows renters who pay their rent on Zillow to build their credit when they make on-time rent payments. Additionally, Zillow Home Loans’s BuyAbilitySM tool offers buyers a personalized assessment of suitable home prices and monthly payments that align with their financial capabilities. By considering factors like the buyer’s credit score, income and down payment, and by using current mortgage rates, this tool provides home shoppers with a comprehensive understanding of their purchasing potential. Look into rate buydowns and mortgage points. Consider mortgage rate buydowns or purchasing mortgage points to lower interest costs on your loan. A rate buydown involves an initial payment for reduced rates in the early loan years, while buying points results in ongoing savings on monthly payments throughout the term of the loan. When buying a new-construction home, the builder may cover these costs as incentives. If this is not the case, negotiating with the seller or builder is always an option. It’s crucial for home buyers to evaluate the break-even timeline — the point at which the savings from these strategies equal the associated costs. For personalized guidance, buyers should seek advice from a trusted loan officer. Put more money down. Increasing the down payment decreases the loan size and the risk for the lender, which may mean they can offer a lower mortgage rate. However, saving for a down payment to even qualify for a loan can be a significant challenge for home buyers — 44% of first-time buyers used either a gift or loan from family or friends. But resources are available to alleviate the burden. By answering a few simple questions, buyers can see the available down payment assistance programs they may qualify for on Zillow listings. Among recent first-time buyers who used a mortgage, 60% received some sort of down payment assistance. Consider house hacking. If it aligns with a buyer’s lifestyle, renting out rooms in their home to produce rental income can reduce their mortgage rate. Recent mortgage buyers who included projected rental income in their application were more likely to secure a mortgage rate below 5% than those who did not. Check out nontraditional loan types. A 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is the most common loan type, but there are others. An adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) features an initial lower interest rate that can change to the market rate after a fixed period, typically three, five, seven or 10 years. The primary risk of an ARM is that rates could be higher when the initial period ends, leading to higher payments. Another option for home buyers to explore is a shorter loan term, such as a 15-year mortgage. These shorter loans come with much higher monthly payments, because the loan is being paid off more quickly, but markedly lower interest rates, meaning less of a homeowner’s monthly payment is going toward interest. To assess affordability and determine the best course of action, consulting a loan officer is recommended to make a well-informed decision tailored to a borrower’s personalized monthly budget. MortgageRate Share ofRecentMortgageBuyers* Share ofRecentMortgageBuyers WhoReceivedDownPaymentAssistance* Share ofRecentMortgageBuyers WhoFinanced Withan ARM* Share ofRecentMortgageBuyers With aLoan TermShorter Than30 Years* Share ofRecentMortgageBuyers WithProjectedRentalIncome* < 2% 2 % 4 % 4 % 2 % 3 % 2%–2.99% 4 % 6 % 4 % 7 % 6 % 3%–3.99% 16 % 24 % 21 % 23 % 22 % 4%–4.99% 22 % 29 % 28 % 33 % 28 % 5%–5.99% 20 % 19 % 22 % 21 % 20 % 6%–6.99% 24 % 12 % 16 % 10 % 14 % 7% + 12 % 6 % 6 % 5 % 7 % NET: < 5% 45 % 63 % 57 % 65 % 59 % NET 5% + 55 % 37 % 43 % 35 % 41 % *Source: Zillow Consumer Housing Trends Report 2024 SOURCE Zillow, Inc.

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Property Shield

Data Security Firm is Changing the Face of Fraud Protection by Carole VanSickle Ellis Property Shield is, by any definition, “new to the scene” of data security. In fact, the company launched in February of last year. However, said the company’s co-founder and CEO Alex Fahsel, the data security firm hit the ground running by tackling emerging issues around fraud, data security, cyber security, and even artificial intelligence. “As much as we love all this technology, it can be used for all sorts of nefarious things,” Fahsel said. “Property Shield specializes in using this technology for good and to stay ahead of scammers and fraud. Cybersecurity has historically been a ‘cat-and-mouse’ game where the good actors have always been a few steps behind. We started Property Shield to give those good actors the opportunity to stay ahead.” “We are basically the data police,” explained Luke Lind, co-founder and CTO of the company. “Our system is constantly monitoring the web for potential fraudulent listings, and whenever it finds one, we immediately notify whichever client owns the data.” At the same time as the notification is going out, Property Shield tackles the process of having the fraudulent listing removed from consumer access as soon as possible. “The combination of these two workflows helps reduce illegal activity at the physical property level,” Lind continued. “Because our system is able to identify and remove fraud listings within hours, we can effectively cut down on the threat they pose to the property.” That threat is growing exponentially larger every day as cyber criminals, already frighteningly internet savvy, add psychological manipulation to their roster of skills. According to the Boston Division of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), rental scams increased 64% between 2020 and 2021. Cumulative losses exceeded $350 million in 2021 alone. “The actual losses are most likely much higher,” the bureau added, “because many people are hesitant to report they were scammed.” “These are very sophisticated crime syndicates that push these scams and frauds,” Fahsel said. He explained that large syndicates of cyber criminals based in countries with low or no regulation on this behavior may run hundreds of variations on dozens of distinctly “stamped” scams, from romance scams to employment scams to rental fraud. When one strategy begins to work particularly well, the lessons from that strategy may then be applied across the board. There is a great deal of intense analytics involved. “Cyber criminals look closely for certain criteria to indicate if a certain geographical region or market is ripe for real estate scams,” Fahsel said. “When they home in on a market, they will check net domestic migration patterns, for example, to determine where a large volume of people is moving. Then, they tailor the scam to fit the mindset of the people moving into or out of those areas.” Because an individual moving into a new area may not have a clear idea about the nature of the rental landscape, they are particularly prone to falling for what Fahsel calls “too-good-to-be-true” offers. “Scammers compile data about properties, rental prices, images, and listings, then hire virtual assistants or even college students looking for part-time jobs to put together these offers and facilitate the exchange of security deposits, rent, or other funds,” he explained. This makes the entire process even muddier for law enforcement because there are often innocent parties involved in the middle of the process between the victim and the cybercriminal. “The ‘employees’ get scammed too, because they frequently never get paid,” Fahsel noted. The “salaries” for these positions are also often too good to be true; the Federal Trade Commission estimates in 2022, job seekers lost $68 million in labor, lost income, and fraudulent fees associated with fake jobs. Cutting Off Fraud at the Source Because most real estate scams are carried out by large syndicates running multiple scams and multiple variations on these scams in multiple locations around the country, identifying trends early and acting preemptively to identify and eliminate fraud related to an investment portfolio is one of the few ways to make a significant dent in the potential money, time, and opportunity lost when a real estate scam succeeds. There are multiple victims at every point in the scam, from the property owner to the “employees” and “interns” working unwittingly for the scammer to the renter hoping to establish a household in the property shown by the fraudulent listing. According to Georgia Legal Aid, an organization based in Atlanta, Georgia, which is currently a hotbed of rental fraud, the two primary types of rental listing scams actively deployed at present included renting properties that the scammer is not authorized to rent and creating property listings for properties that do not exist and soliciting deposits or application fees using those listings. However, this simple explanation barely scratches the surface when it comes to the ingenuity and brainpower cybercrime syndicates dedicate to this type of fraud, Fahsel said. “These are teams of people who wake up every day and think, ‘How do we scam these people? How can we hack the system and take advantage of it?’ If they put half the effort they do into pushing these scams into a legitimate business that would help people, they could do really well,” Fahsel explained. “Sadly, that is not the route they take, so Property Shield spends every waking moment thinking about how to stop them.” Lind added, “Our system stands out from other fraud-prevention platforms because we are using the same tools that the scammers are using to fight them. Machine learning is a critical component of our system, and we have been ‘training’ our models for a long time.” To “train” a machine learning model, the algorithm is “fed” data from which it can learn. The more training the model receives, the better it becomes at identifying threats and classifying them as such. Lind noted, “Our model is also multi-modal, meaning it can process multiple mediums of data, including text and images.” This enables Property

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Orlando, Florida

Florida’s “City Beautiful” Endures a Statewide Market Shift by Carole VanSickle Ellis The third-most-visited city in the United States could see a shift in the next few years as formerly happy pandemic-era homebuyers put their properties back on the market and flee inland once more…or the market could “correct” in one of the gentlest “softening” events in the country. Analysts can make compelling arguments in both directions. “Florida’s real estate market has a split personality,” wrote Realtor.com data journalist Evan Wyloge in August 2024. The same is arguably true on an individual level for at least some of the state’s markets, including Orlando. After weathering multiple named storms in 2024 alone, including Hurricanes Helene and Milton, many Orlando residents say they are considering listing their properties and relocating closer to their pre-pandemic stomping grounds. Given how prices have risen over the past four years, many expect to liquidate to great effect and, furthermore, they have high hopes of an expedited experience thanks to rising demand for housing around the country. The sales process, however, may not go as smoothly as many expect. “We could see some price deterioration in some areas,” warned Florida Realtors chief economist Brad O’Connor in an interview with the Wall Street Journal in early October of this year. He added, “[There has] definitely been a sizable increase over the last couple of years in inventory.” The combination could spell bad news for Florida homeowners who purchased at peak pandemic pricing and are now hoping to sell quickly for top dollar and make an exit. While Orlando has not been hit as hard as much of the Gulf Coast of Florida this year, the city did experience tangential economic impact from the rough weather associated with Hurricane Helene. The storm made landfall in northwest Florida but created a preemptive economic impact as Orlando’s theme parks and other tourist attractions and services shut down or cancelled certain seasonal events. Orlando experienced more direct damage from Hurricane Milton’s flooding and extremely high winds, which caused damage in the Orlando area as well as throughout much of the state. Investors should note Orlando may be classified as an “inland market,” but this does not exempt it from looming threats associated with the departure of property insurers and rising rates associated with inland flooding and other natural disasters. Unfortunately, the classification often causes property owners to forego flood insurance if they are not located in an officially designated flood plain. Some insurance companies in the Orlando area will not insure properties once they reach a certain value unless the owner also takes out flood insurance even if the property is not in a flood plain. These storms and others are causing property insurance premiums to skyrocket across the state, including in Orlando. Katherine Frattarola, an insurance agent at a firm catering to high-net-worth clients, noted earlier this fall that many of her clients are reconsidering waterfront Florida property acquisitions in response to these premiums. “People are making different choices as a result of the rise in insurance costs,” Frattarola told WSJ. According to a report from the Florida Policy Project, Florida homeowners saw rates rise 45% between 2017 and 2022. Since 2022, areas hit by hurricanes have posted insurance premium spikes as high as 400%, according to Moody’s Analytics. Moody’s also predicted rates would rise still higher in areas affected by Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Although state legislators have attempted to insulate property owners from instability in the insurance market by creating a $1 billion “reinsurance fund,” disincentivizing “frivolous lawsuits,” and establishing stringent deadlines for the claims process, it appears unlikely that such measures will hold in the face of homeowner discontent and increasingly strong hurricanes and rainstorms. Florida governor Ron DeSantis noted more than one in 10 Florida homeowners do not have property insurance (vs. about one in 20 nationally) and expressed hope that the bill would keep the state’s residents insured at affordable (or at least only gradually rising) rates. Critics of the bill said it would not stop rate increases or cancellations; investors should note ten insurance companies had left the state due to “choice or insolvency,” as the Insurance Information Institute described it, as of August 2024. Florida’s “Split Personality” Could Make Orlando Investing Complicated As the state of Florida experiences volatility in the housing market, markets like Orlando are divided not only by the extent to which they are affected by extreme weather but also by housing sectors. For example, insurance premiums and fees play an outsized role throughout the state, but particularly in prime landfall locations on the coast. On the other hand, state regulations on condominium assessments and related regulations have softened up the condo market substantially in the past few years, including in the condo-flush Orlando market. At present, about one-third of all listings in Orlando are for condo properties. “Nobody can afford the association fees anymore,” realtor Jennifer Levin told Realtor.com in mid-August of this year. She cited legislation enacted in the wake of the tragic collapse of the Miami Surfside condominium building in 2021 as a significant component of the softening condo market. “The big pullback in the market is in the condo market because of rising insurance costs and new laws that require buildings to have full reserves by next year,” Levin said. Realtor.com reported condo prices have fallen about 12% since 2022, while single-family homes have held steady or risen in value in most markets. In Orlando, single-family home median values were up slightly year-over-year in August 2024, reported Bankrate, posting gains of 9.3% year-over-year but falling slightly from a July 2024 peak of $412,000 to $399,000 in August. Readers should note the state of Florida remains one of the most attractive states in the country for new residents and gained a net of nearly 250,000 new residents in 2022 alone according to the most recent available data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford metro area holds steady in the top three most-popular Florida metro areas and

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