July 2024 – Page 3

Typical Monthly Housing Payment Drops to $115 Below Record As Mortgage Rates Decline

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Mortgage rates dropped to their lowest level since February after the latest CPI report showed inflation cooling. Still, pending home sales posted their biggest decline in eight months The typical U.S. homebuyer’s monthly housing payment was $2,722 during the four weeks ending July 14, $115 lower than April’s all-time high, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. That’s despite home prices sitting just about $100 shy of last week’s record high. To view the full report, including charts, methodology and metro-level data, please visit:https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-housing-payments-mortgage-rates-decline Daily average mortgage rates have dropped to their lowest level since February after last week’s cooler-than-expected inflation report, bringing homebuyers a bit of relief. A homebuyer on a $3,000 monthly budget can afford a $450,000 home with a 6.8% mortgage rate, roughly the daily average as of July 17. That buyer has gained about $25,000 in purchasing power since rates hit a five-month peak in April, when they could have bought a $425,000 home with a 7.5% rate. Rising supply is another piece of promising news for homebuyers, with new listings up 6.4% year over year and the total number of listings near its highest level in almost four years. More homeowners are selling because they’re tired of waiting for rates to drop significantly; it has been more than two years since they started rising from pandemic-era lows. Buyers have yet to react strongly to falling rates and increasing inventory. Pending sales are down 5.6% year over year, the biggest decline in eight months, and Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index—a measure of requests for tours and other buying services from Redfin agents—is down 15%. Mortgage-purchase applications are down 3% week over week on a seasonally adjusted basis. That’s despite mortgage rates falling year over year; the 6.83% daily average as of July 17 is down from 6.9% a year ago. Some buyers are sitting on the sidelines because they’re hoping mortgage rates will decline more. “Now that it’s looking increasingly likely the Fed will cut interest rates by the end of the year, some house hunters believe mortgage rates will fall more and are waiting for that to happen before they buy,” said Chen Zhao, Redfin’s economic research lead. “But they may be waiting in vain; it’s unlikely mortgage rates will drop much lower in the next few months, as markets are already pricing in the expectation of a rate cut in September, followed by several more at the end of 2024 and into 2025. In fact, now may be the right time for house hunters to get serious about making offers before prices increase even more and they lose some power. Plus, there are more homes to choose from, and many listings are growing stale, giving buyers an opportunity to negotiate.” Another reason for slow demand is extreme heat in some parts of the country preventing house hunters from touring. Nashville, TN Redfin Premier agent Kristin Sanchez said: “Severe heat waves are making people feel pretty much locked in their houses. They don’t want to come out to see homes because it’s miserable outside; open houses haven’t been getting much traffic.” For more on Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.

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Median asking rent fell -0.4% in June, with declines seen across all unit sizes amid mixed regional conditions Rents fell again in June, with especially large declines in the South, where there’s been an influx of new rental units, according to the Realtor.com® Rental Report. The median asking rent for 0-2 bedroom units fell -0.4% ($7) from last June to $1,743, marking the 11th straight month of declines and -0.6% ($11) below its August 2022 peak. Still, some markets have seen rents surge by as much as 40% compared to 2019’s pre-pandemic levels, with Tampa, Fla., seeing the largest increase over the past five years. The Top 10 markets experiencing the fastest price growth versus pre-pandemic rents include: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla. (+39.5%); Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Fla. (+39.2%); Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Ind.(+37.5%); Pittsburgh (+37.4%); Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, Calif. (+35.8%); Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.-N.C. (+32.5%); New York-Newark-Jersey City, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa. (+31.3%); Cleveland-Elyria, Ohio (+30.6%); Raleigh-Cary, N.C. (29.8%); and Birmingham-Hoover, Ala. (+29.3%). “Rents have been steadily falling for almost a year, though the pace of the decline has slowed,” said Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com®. “But rental costs have risen significantly since before the pandemic and inflation has further strained renters’ budgets, underscoring the need for more supply to meet demand and to keep renters from contributing an increasing percentage of their incomes to housing costs.” Tampa, Florida saw the highest rent growth since before the pandemicThe median asking rent for 0-2 bedroom units across the top 50 metro areas in June was 21.2% ($305) higher than the same month in 2019, before the pandemic roiled the housing market. That’s roughly in line with the trend in overall consumer prices (+22.6%) during the same period, but pales in comparison to the 52.6% increase in median price-per-square-foot of for-sale home listings in the five years ending June 2024. Half of the 10 markets with the highest percentage increase in rents from June 2019 to June 2024 were in the South, led by Tampa, Fla. (39.5%) and Miami (39.2%). In Tampa, for example, the median asking rent in June was $1,752, or $496 higher than the pre-pandemic level. That is equivalent to about 8.6% of a typical Tampa household’s monthly gross income. The biggest increase in the Midwest came in Indianapolis, up 37.5% to $1,353. Pittsburgh saw the largest percentage jump in the Northeast, with the median asking rent rising 37.4% to $1,484, and Sacramento, Calif. led the West, with the median rent climbing by 35.8% to $2,007. Rents fell in the South, rose in the Midwest, and were mixed on the coastsRegionally, rental trends were mixed in June. The biggest year-over-year declines were all in the South, led by Austin, Texas (-9.5%), San Antonio (-8.2%), and Nashville, Tenn. (-8.1%). Those areas have seen substantial increases in the supply of new rental units. In the Midwest, rents rose overall, with increases seen in Indianapolis (+4.4%), Milwaukee (+3.7%) and Minneapolis (+3.7%). Large metros in the West saw year-over-year rents decline, including Los Angeles (-1.9%) and San Francisco (-4.2%). Meantime, big coastal cities in the Northeast, such as New York (+0.6%) saw rental rates edge up, albeit more slowly than before. Units of all sizes saw rents declineMedian asking rents fell across all size categories, with smaller units showing larger declines. The median rent for studios fell by -1.2% on a year-over-year basis, to $1,463. That’s -2.0% lower than its October 2022 peak but 17.6% higher than five years ago. Median rent for one-bedroom units fell -1.1% to $1,618, for the 13th consecutive year-over-year decline. That’s still 19.5% higher than it was five years ago. And the median rent for two-bedroom units fell by -0.3% to $1,939 for the 12th consecutive month of annual declines, though it was a smaller drop than seen in May. These larger units had the highest growth rate over the past five years, rising by 23%. National Rental Data – June 2024 Unit Size Median Rent Rent YoY Rent Change – 5 years (June 2019) Overall $1,743 -0.4 % 21.2 % Studio $1,463 -1.2 % 17.6 % 1-bed $1,618 -1.1 % 19.5 % 2-bed $1,939 -0.3 % 23.0 % Top Markets Experiencing the Fastest Rent Growth VS. Pre-Pandemic Rank Market Rents June2024 $ Diff. vs. June2019 % Diff.vs. June 2019 1 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL $1,752 $496 39.5 % 2 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL $2,388 $673 39.2 % 3 Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN $1,353 $369 37.5 % 4 Pittsburgh, PA $1,484 $404 37.4 % 5 Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA $2,007 $529 35.8 % 6 Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC $1,542 $378 32.5 % 7 New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA $2,910 $693 31.3 % 8 Cleveland-Elyria, OH $1,237 $290 30.6 % 9 Raleigh-Cary, NC $1,546 $355 29.8 % 10 Birmingham-Hoover, AL $1,316 $298 29.3 % SOURCE Realtor.com

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Inventory Continues to Increase Amid Modest Median Price Growth and Home Sales Decline June home sales declined 7.2% from May’s strong showing and were down 11.6% year over year – atypical considering June historically has more sales than May. Across the 50 metro areas surveyed, inventory rose 6.7% from May and was up 38.1% over June 2023 – similar to May’s year-over-year increase of 39.6%. That equated to 2.1 Months Supply of Inventory compared to last June’s 1.4 months. The median sales price of $431,000 was $6,000 (1.4%) higher than in May and $19,000 (4.6%) higher than in last June. On average, buyers paid 100% of the list price for the third month in a row following eight months of paying 98-99%. “It’s good to see inventory levels rising, as more listings represent more options for buyers,” said Amy Lessinger, President of RE/MAX, LLC. “Given the decline in sales, it’s evident that buyers are sensitive to interest rates, highlighting the need for lower rates to stimulate significant growth in market activity.” Other metrics of note: Highlights and local market results for June include: New Listings In the 50 metro areas surveyed in June 2024, the number of newly listed homes was down 5.2% compared to May 2024, and up 8.3% compared to June 2023. The markets with the biggest year-over-year increase in new listings percentage were Burlington, VT at +25.3%, Phoenix, AZ at +25.0%, and San Antonio, TX at +20.0%. The markets with the biggest decrease in year-over-year new listings percentage were Cleveland, OH at -16.0%, Indianapolis, IN at -7.6%, and Wichita, KS at -7.3%. New Listings:5 Markets with the Biggest YoY Increase Market Jun 2024New Listings Jun 2023New Listings Year-over-Year% Change Burlington, VT 342 273 +25.3 % Phoenix, AZ 7,942 6,354 +25.0 % San Antonio, TX 5,466 4,556 +20.0 % Richmond, VA 2,028 1,694 +19.7 % Miami, FL 10,914 9,316 +17.2 % Closed Transactions Of the 50 metro areas surveyed in June 2024, the overall number of home sales was down 7.2% compared to May 2024, and down 11.6% compared to June 2023. The markets with the biggest decrease in year-over-year sales percentage were Manchester, NH at -23.0%, Anchorage, AK at -21.4%, and New Orleans, LA at -21.0%. The markets with the biggest increase in year-over-year sales percentage were Fayetteville, AR at +3.4%, Houston, TX at +2.7%, and Salt Lake City, UT at +1.7%. Closed Transactions:5 Markets with the Biggest YoY Decrease Market Jun 2024Transactions Jun 2023Transactions Year-over-Year% Change Manchester, NH 415 539 -23.0 % Anchorage, AK 418 532 -21.4 % New Orleans, LA 949 1,201 -21.0 % Providence, RI 1,181 1,448 -18.4 % Miami, FL 6,128 7,359 -16.7 % Median Sales Price – Median of 50 metro area pricesIn June 2024, the median of all 50 metro area sales prices was $431,000, up 1.4% compared to May 2024, and up 4.6% from June 2023. The markets with the biggest year-over-year increase in median sales price were Trenton, NJ at +17.7%, Hartford, CT at +14.6%, and Honolulu, HI at +12.9%. The markets with the biggest year-over-year decrease in median sales price were Bozeman, MT at -5.8%, followed by a tie between New Orleans, LA and San Antonio, TX at -1.0%. Median Sales Price:5 Markets with the Biggest YoY Increase Market Jun 2024Median Sales Price Jun 2023Median Sales Price Year-over-Year% Change Trenton, NJ $500,050 $425,000 +17.7 % Hartford, CT $385,000 $336,000 +14.6 % Honolulu, HI $785,000 $695,000 +12.9 % Dover, DE $349,990 $312,000 +12.2 % New York, NY $627,000 $562,000 +11.6 % Close-to-List Price Ratio – Average of 50 metro area pricesIn June 2024, the average close-to-list price ratio of all 50 metro areas in the report was 100%, the same as in both May 2024 and June 2023. The close-to-list price ratio is calculated by the average value of the sales price divided by the list price for each transaction. When the number is above 100%, the home closed for more than the list price. If it’s less than 100%, the home sold for less than the list price. The metro areas with the highest close-to-list price ratios were a tie between Hartford, CT and Trenton, NJ at 105%, followed by San Francisco, CA at 104%. The metro areas with the lowest close-to-list price ratio were Miami, FL at 94%, followed by a three-way tie between New Orleans, LA, San Antonio, TX, and Tampa, FL at 97%. Close-to-List Price Ratio:5 Markets with the Highest Close-to-List Price Ratio Market Jun 2024Close-to-List PriceRatio Jun 2023Close-to-List PriceRatio Year-over-YearDifference* Trenton, NJ 105.2 % 103.7 % +1.6 pp Hartford, CT 105.2 % 105.6 % -0.4 pp San Francisco, CA 104.0 % 103.5 % +0.5 pp Manchester, NH 103.3 % 103.6 % -0.3 pp Burlington, VT 102.4 % 103.0 % -0.6 pp Days on Market – Average of 50 metro areasThe average days on market for homes sold in June 2024 was 33, down one day compared to the average in May 2024, and up two days compared to June 2023. The metro areas with the lowest days on market were a tie between Baltimore, MD and Washington, DC at 11, followed by another tie between Manchester, NH and Trenton, NJ at 12. The highest days on market averages were in Fayetteville, AR at 70, Bozeman, MT at 67, and San Antonio, TX at 63. Days on market is the number of days between when a home is first listed in an MLS and a sales contract is signed. Days on Market:5 Markets with the Lowest Days on Market Market Jun 2024Days on Market Jun 2023Days on Market Year-over-Year% Change Baltimore, MD 11 11 +0.4 % Washington, DC 11 11 -2.9 % Manchester, NH 12 12 +2.9 % Trenton, NJ 12 18 -29.5 % Philadelphia, PA 13 15 -8.8 % Months’ Supply of Inventory – Average of 50 metro areasThe number of homes for sale in June 2024 was up 6.7% from May 2024 and up 38.1% from June 2023. Based on the rate of home sales in June 2024, the months’ supply of inventory was 2.1, up from 1.9 in May 2024, and up from 1.4 in June 2023. In June 2024, the markets with the lowest months’ supply of inventory were a three-way tie between Hartford, CT, Manchester, NH, and Trenton, NJ at 0.8. The markets with the highest months’ supply of inventory were Bozeman, MT at 5.8, Miami, FL at 4.9, and San Antonio, TX at 4.5. Months’ Supply of Inventory:5 Markets with the Lowest Months’ Supply Inventory Market Jun 2024Months’ Supplyof Inventory Jun 2023Months’ Supply ofInventory Year-over-Year% Change Manchester, NH 0.8 0.6 +18.8 % Trenton, NJ 0.8 0.6 +29.2 % Hartford, CT 0.8 0.7 +27.5 % Washington, DC 0.9 0.7 +36.9 % Milwaukee, WI 0.9 0.8 +25.3 % SOURCE RE/MAX, LLC

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REAL ESTATE INVESTOR SENTIMENT JUMPS 16% Real estate investor sentiment jumped by 16% from the previous quarter, according to the new RCN Capital/CJ Patrick Company Investor Sentiment Index™. Sixty percent of investors viewed today’s market as better or much better than it was a year ago, compared to only 20% who felt it was worse or much worse. Investors were equally bullish on where the market is headed, with 61% expecting it to continue to improve, while only 14% expected it to decline – the highest percentage of positive responses and lowest percentage of negative responses since the inception of the RCN Investor Sentiment Survey. The RCN Capital/CJ Patrick Company Investor Sentiment Index™ (ISI) was designed to track the pulse of real estate investors across the country and gauge their market outlook. The ISI is based on the quarterly RCN Capital Investor Sentiment Survey of residential real estate investors and focuses on their responses to four specific questions: “Despite numerous challenges, real estate investors feel much better about the investing environment today than they have over the past year and are equally optimistic about where the market is heading,” said RCN Capital CEO Jeffrey Tesch. “Rental property investors are slightly less positive than fix-and-flip investors, which may be due to rental prices flattening and even declining in many markets across the country.” The Summer 2024 Investor Sentiment Survey from RCN Capital, conducted by market intelligence firm CJ Patrick Company, again highlighted growing concerns among investors about increasing insurance costs or the unavailability of insurance in markets subject to frequent extreme weather events. Over 84% of the investors surveyed noted that rising insurance costs or the unavailability of insurance coverage was a factor in their decisions to buy and sell real estate. Almost 68% noted that these insurance issues had caused them to miss out on an investment opportunity. Both of these findings were significantly higher than in the prior quarter’s report. The problem is particularly acute for investors in states that have seen unusually high levels of extreme weather events over the past few years. 100% of the respondents who invest in California properties cited insurance issues as a consideration in their decision-making, and almost two-thirds (73%) said insurance problems had cost them a deal. In Florida, 83% acknowledged factoring insurance into their investment planning, and 67% noted that insurance issues had caused them to miss out on an opportunity. Another growing issue appears to be the prevalence of squatters, who were cited as a problem by 76% of respondents in their markets; 53% of the respondents noted that they’d experienced problems with squatters on a personal level. The problem appears to be more severe for fix-and-flip investors than for rental property owners: 90% of flippers cited squatters as an issue, compared to just under 50% of rental property investors. The Summer 2024 Investor Sentiment Survey is the fifth quarterly report from RCN Capital, taking the pulse of real estate investors across the country, identifying market challenges and opportunities, and getting feedback on current trends and events. Flippers More Optimistic Than Rental Property Investors There was a significant contrast between the market sentiment and outlook between fix-and-flip investors and rental property investors. Flippers were overwhelmingly positive, with 73% saying the market today is better or much better than a year ago compared to only 35% of rental property investors. Similarly, 75% of flippers expect market conditions to continue to improve, while just 37% of rental property owners feel the same way. Investors who felt that market conditions today were similarly split by type of investment: only 11% of flippers felt conditions today were worse than a year ago, while 36% of rental property investors responded that way. It doesn’t appear that these differing opinions are based on expectations for the U.S. economy; despite being more optimistic about the market, 75% of flippers believe the economy is likely to enter a recession this year, while only 35% of rental property owners do. Both groups expect home prices to continue to rise, with 88% of flippers and 61% of rental property owners anticipating price increases. And almost all of these investors – 92% of flippers and 86% of rental property investors – plan to continue investing primarily in their home states. Challenges Faced by InvestorsInvestors cited many of the same factors as major challenges to their success as in previous surveys, but reflected some changes to current market dynamics. The high cost of financing was mentioned most frequently – by 74% of respondents. Lack of inventory (45%) replaced rising home prices (35%) as the second-most cited challenge. Investors also continue to cite competition from institutional investors (44%) and from traditional consumer homebuyers (26%) as major issues. Looking ahead, investors appear to see market conditions shifting slightly, as only 67% noted the high cost of financing as a top concern, and inventory issues (42%) and rising prices (32%) were also cited less often. On the other hand, respondents also seem to expect more competition from both institutional (47%) and consumer homebuyers (29%) six months from now. Some of these trends were very similar for both flippers and rental property investors. Financing costs were noted by 77% of flippers and 76% of rental investors; and lack of inventory by 46% and 45% respectively. But there were also some significant differences noted in key challenges. Flippers cited competition from institutions much more frequently (53%) than rental property investors (35%), whereas rental property investors complained about rising home prices with more than twice the rate (53%) than flippers did (21%). “It’s interesting to see some of the nuances in the investor sentiment data, and consider some of the implications” noted Rick Sharga, CJ Patrick Company CEO. “It appears that recent reports of increased flipping activity – and improvements in flippers’ gross margins – may be fueling some of the optimism from that set of investors. Meanwhile, flat and declining rent rates, an influx of hundreds of thousands of apartments, and rising property acquisition costs may be dimming the outlook for some rental property investors.” CONTACT: Erica LaCentra, RCN Capital, 860.432.4782, elacentra@rcncapital.com Rick Sharga,

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NAIOP Commends “Revitalizing Downtowns and Main Streets Act” Introduced in the U.S. House of Representatives NAIOP, the Commercial Real Estate Development Association, commends the introduction of the “Revitalizing Downtowns and Main Streets Act,” which establishes a new 20% tax credit to make possible conversion of many underutilized or vacant commercial properties to residential use. The bipartisan bill is sponsored by U.S. Representatives Mike Carey (R-OH) and Jimmy Gomez (D-CA). “This legislation will spur the conversion of vacant spaces that can stimulate local economies and begin to address the housing crisis in communities across the U.S.,” said Marc Selvitelli, CAE, president and CEO of NAIOP. “This important bill allows Congress to begin rectifying many of the ripple effects of the COVID-19 pandemic that are still affecting the lives of Americans and impacting local tax revenues.” The proposed legislation includes: “This bill reaches beyond the urban core and into cities of all sizes across the country,” said Selvitelli. “Its impact on local tax revenues will replace dollars lost to underutilized and defaulted properties, and it provides building owners with the opportunity to create more sustainable, energy-efficient spaces. We encourage the House to move quickly on this important bill, and NAIOP looks forward to productive discussions within the House and Senate so a bill can be enacted into law.” Working with the federal government to incentivize the adaptive reuse of vacant and underutilized office buildings and other structures to help address the severe shortage of affordable housing is a legislative priority for NAIOP and its members. “NAIOP congratulates Reps. Carey and Gomez for their leadership on this important bill,” said Selvitelli. “Together with our coalition partners, NAIOP recognized an issue, identified a solution, and began working to move it forward. As this bill progresses, we expect our 21,000+ members in cities large and small will be called on to share their experiences and voice their support.” To learn more about NAIOP’s legislative position and work on adaptive reuse, visit naiop.org/adaptive-reuse. About NAIOPNAIOP, the Commercial Real Estate Development Association is the leading organization for developers, owners, investors and related professionals in office, industrial, retail, and mixed-use real estate. NAIOP provides unparalleled industry networking and education and advocates for effective legislation on behalf of our members. NAIOP advances responsible, sustainable development that creates jobs and benefits the communities in which our members work and live. For more information, visit naiop.org. SOURCE NAIOP

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Homebuyers on a $3,000 monthly budget have gained over $20,000 in purchasing power since mortgage rates peaked in the spring A homebuyer on a $3,000 monthly budget can afford a $447,750 home with a 6.85% mortgage rate, the daily average as of July 11, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. That buyer has gained $22,500 in purchasing power since mortgage rates hit a five-month peak in April, when they could have bought a $425,500 home with an average rate of 7.5%. Mortgage rates dropped to their lowest level since March on Thursday’s inflation report, and the supply of homes for sale is rising, giving buyers a sweet spot before competition picks up. To look at affordability another way, the monthly mortgage payment on the typical U.S. home—which costs roughly $400,000—is $2,647 with the current 6.85% rate. That’s down nearly $200 from $2,814 with a 7.5% rate. The drop in mortgage rates comes after the latest CPI report showed that inflation is cooling faster than expected and upped the chances that the Fed will cut interest rates by September. It’s likely that mortgage rates will continue declining slightly in advance of the expected interest-rate cuts, but it’s unlikely they’ll drop below 6% before the end of the year. Even though mortgage rates are declining, sale prices are still at record highs and total housing costs are historically high. Prices are unlikely to drop meaningfully in the near future. The other piece of good news for buyers: More homes to choose from Rising inventory is also promising for buyers: New listings of homes for sale are up 7% year over year, and the total number of homes for sale is near its highest level since late 2020. More homes are hitting the market partly because homeowners, many of whom are locked into ultra-low mortgage rates, are tired of waiting for rates to drop dramatically before listing their homes. Rates have been sitting at double pandemic-era lows for nearly two years, and homeowners have come to terms with the fact that if they wait for rates to drop to 3% or 4% before selling and moving onto their next home, they may be waiting for several years. The fact that rates are declining slightly right now may lure more would-be sellers off the sidelines. Homes are also sitting on the market longer than usual. More than 60% of homes that were on the market in May had been listed for at least 30 days without going under contract, up from 50% two years earlier. Two in five (40%) homes had been listed for at least twomonths without going under contract, up from 28% two years earlier. The uptick in homes for sale, along with the fact that many listings are growing stale, means many of the less-desirable homes on the market are having a hard time finding a buyer. That gives homebuyers in some places a chance to get a home for under the asking price and negotiate for other money savers, like home repairs or help with closing costs. “Now is a good time–at least compared to the recent past–for serious house hunters to get under contract on a home,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “The combination of declining mortgage rates, rising supply and a lot of inventory growing stale means buyers have a window where they have more purchasing power than earlier in the year and more homes to choose from. But it’s hard to say how long the window will last. Declining rates should bring many homebuyers back to the market soon, which means competition would tick up and home prices would increase even faster than they already are. It’s also possible rates drop further in 2025, which would make monthly costs decline more and increase competition even more. One thing is for sure: lower rates will lead to more home sales.” To view the full report, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/mortgage-rates-fall-payments-down