Survey Finds Despite Cooling Rental Prices, Homeownership Remains Out of Reach for Many

Fewer independent landlords are planning to raise rents this year, but tenants paying persistently higher rents say it’s likely to impact their home purchasing plans this year Over the past few years it’s become more expensive than ever to rent, and with rental affordability a pressing national concern, landlords and tenants alike say it’s impacting their future plans, according to a new Realtor.com® Avail Landlord & Renter Survey. Fewer surveyed independent landlords are planning to raise rents this year, but with more tenants paying persistently higher rents in recent years, many renters say it’s likely to impact their home purchase plans this year. “The once-hot rental market has been stabilizing and softening year-over-year since May 2023, mostly from a surge in new rental options coming to the market that gave renters more to choose from. But the surge in rents and the sheer number of renters, many of whom have held off on buying in recent years, continue to minimize any potential price impacts that increased rental inventory could have on the market,” said Danielle Hale, Chief Economist, Realtor.com®. “The median asking rent in 2024 is expected to drop only slightly below its 2023 level (-0.2%), but with wages rising 4.5% in January and anticipated to continue growing, even the modest decline in rent is giving households a real break, reducing the share of each paycheck going toward rent.” Fewer landlords raising rents this yearAccording to the survey, while six in 10 landlords (60%) plan to raise rent in the next 12 months, that percentage declined in recent quarters, down from 65% in Q1 2023. The majority of surveyed landlords (69%) noted they raise rent differently for renewals versus new leases, with the most opting for 0-5% increases for renewals and 0-10% increases for new leases. Among landlords who don’t raise rents differently for renewal versus new tenants, the majority (50%) plan to increase rent between 0-5%. Planned rent increases are inline with higher costs across the board for many Americans, including landlords who are passing those costs on to their tenants. The majority of landlords (60%) stated that their ownership costs increased upwards of 10% in the past 12 months. Among landlords not planning to raise rents this year, 72% cite their unit already being priced at or above local market value. Persistently high prices squeeze rentersThe average responding renter pays between $1,000 and $1,500 monthly, but the survey found more renters are paying rents upwards of $1000–$2000 than in previous surveys, indicating continued rent increases for many across the country. In fact, 71% of surveyed renters noted a rent increase when renewing their most recent lease. And relief from high housing costs isn’t in sight, with 35% of surveyed renters anticipating future rent increases and 38% unsure if they will see one, leading nearly two thirds (63%) to explore other housing options besides renewing their current lease. Common reasons for those not renewing leases included that the current rent was too expensive (43%) and unaffordable rent increases (23%). For some, staying put when a lease is up and negotiating rent increases may help save money; the percentage of renters attempting to negotiate rent increases when renewing their lease increased from 28% in Q1 2023 to 34% in Q4 2023. This may be especially true in 2024 as higher rental vacancy rates may mean landlords are more interested in securing renewals. Budget constraints put home buying plans on pauseRising interest rates and inflation are impacting home purchasing plans for many renters looking at buying in the year ahead, with 82% of surveyed renters noting the economy has had an impact on their housing plans. Among renters who are not considering a home purchase this year (71%), the majority cited not having enough for a down payment (61%) and that interest rates are too high (42%). The proportion of renters considering purchasing a home in the next 12 months decreased slightly from 30% in Q1 2023 to 29% in Q4 2023, with concerns about a lack of savings and their ability to qualify for a mortgage increasing. That’s not surprising, given that two thirds of renters (68%) reported saving less each month than they were 12 months ago. Rental owners staying put on their properties Higher home prices and mortgage rates are also impacting landlords’ plans for investing in more rental properties in the year ahead. Only 22% of surveyed landlords reported plans to buy one or more rental properties in the next 12 months, not unexpected given that approximately 7 in 10 surveyed landlords already have a mortgage on at least one rental property, and would likely finance another purchase with a mortgage. The majority of landlords have no plans to exit the market either: 73% stated they don’t plan to sell any units in their portfolio over the next 12 months. SOURCE Realtor.com

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Top 10 states to which Gen Zers are moving (and the states they are leaving)

New Zillow analysis finds Texas, California top the list of Gen Z relocation destinations Gen Z may prioritize job opportunities and sunshine over affordability when moving out of state. A new Zillow® analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2022 American Community Survey (ACS) finds Gen Z interstate movers flocked to California, even as the state experienced the highest outbound migration among all out-of-state movers.  Nearly 215,000 movers left California in 2022, yet the Golden State saw a net positive gain of nearly 44,000 Gen Z adults who moved there from other states, according to the data released in October.   It’s not just California. Gen Z movers, excluding students, migrated to other relatively more expensive states compared to all interstate movers. Washington, Colorado and Virginia were among the top 10 states with the highest Gen Z net migration but had minimal or negative net migration among all movers who switched states.  More than three-quarters of Gen Z adults who moved to these pricier states are renting (77%). An analysis of ACS data shows renters can expect to pay more per month to rent in California ($1,856), Washington ($1,592), Colorado ($1,594) and Virginia ($1,440) versus the median rental price nationally ($1,300).    “Compared to all interstate movers, Gen Z adults who moved to California, Washington, Colorado or Virginia were more likely to have a four-year college degree, more likely to be serving in the military, and more likely to work in tech, ACS data shows,” said Edward Berchick, a principal population scientist at Zillow. “Gen Z movers are likely drawn to the job opportunities in these states, despite the higher costs of housing. They may also be in a stage of life where they’re willing and able to be flexible in their standards of living while starting their careers.”  Texas far and away gained the most Gen Z movers. When adding up inbound and subtracting outbound moves, the Lone Star State had a net gain of more than 76,000 Gen Z movers. California gained the second highest number, followed by Florida, which saw the highest net migration among all interstate movers.  Michigan, Maryland and Idaho had the lowest Gen Z net migration. Michigan was the only state where more Gen Z movers departed than arrived.    In Zillow’s analysis of ACS data, Gen Z is defined as those born between 1996 and 2004. To avoid capturing the temporary moves of college students, these statistics exclude respondents who reported attending school in the past three months.  Top 10 states for Gen Z out-of-state movers(2022) Top 10 states for all out-of-state movers(2022) State Net migration State Net migration 1.       Texas 76,805 1.       Florida 187.848 2.       California 43,913 2.       Texas 123,886 3.       Florida 41,394 3.       Georgia 57,888 4.       North Carolina 33,690 4.       South Carolina 54,678 5.       Washington 33,534 5.       Arizona 53,520 6.       Colorado 39,797 6.       North Carolina 46,852 7.       Virginia 26,418 7.       Connecticut 39,877 8.       Illinois 25,890 8.       Tennessee 33,112 9.       Georgia 24,788 9.       Oklahoma 21,431 10.   Arizona 21,418 10.   Nevada 15,853 Bottom 10 states for Gen Z out-of-state movers(2022) Bottom 10 states for all out-of-state movers(2022) State Net migration State Net migration 1.       Michigan -2,858 1.       California -214,517 2.       Maryland 579 2.       New York -184,390 3.       Idaho 850 3.       Illinois -62,549 4.       Vermont 861 4.       Maryland -36,632 5.       Maine 1,241 5.       Massachusetts -36,358 6.       South Dakota 1,591 6.       New Jersey -33,203 7.       Delaware 1,944 7.       Louisiana -23,557 8.       Rhode Island 2,198 8.       Pennsylvania -22,234 9.       New Hampshire 2,298 9.       Oregon -20,267 10.   West Virginia 2,299 10.   Utah -17,749 SOURCE Zillow Group, Inc

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Mortgage Rate Optimism Hits Survey High

Consumer Sentiment toward Housing at Highest Level in Nearly Two Years The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) increased 3.5 points in January to 70.7, its highest level since March 2022, due primarily to increased consumer confidence in job security and another significant jump in the share of consumers expecting mortgage rates to decrease. In January, 82% of consumers indicated that they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months, up from 75% last month. Additionally, an all-time survey-high 36% of respondents indicated that they expect mortgage rates to go down in the next 12 months, while 28% expect them to go up, and 35% expect rates to remain the same. However, consumer perceptions of homebuying conditions remain overwhelmingly pessimistic, with only 17% of consumers indicating it’s a good time to buy a home. Overall, the full index is up 9.1 points year over year. “Mortgage rate optimism increased markedly again in January, with a survey-high percentage of consumers anticipating mortgage rate declines over the next year,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “For the first time in our National Housing Survey’s history, a greater share of consumers believe mortgage rates will decrease over the next year, rather than increase. Consumers also expressed greater confidence in their job situations this month, another sign that housing sentiment may continue to improve in 2024.” Duncan continued: “However, while home affordability may improve if actual mortgage rates continue moving downward, other parts of the affordability equation have yet to ease or improve for consumers. A large majority still think home prices will either increase or stay the same; the ‘good time to buy’ component continues to hover near its historical low; and fewer than one-in-five respondents indicated that their household income was significantly higher year over year, matching a survey low. All in all, while a lower mortgage rate path supports our forecast for a gradual increase in housing demand and sales activity in 2024, until we see a meaningful increase in housing supply, we expect affordability will remain a significant barrier to homeownership for many households.”  Home Purchase Sentiment Index – Component HighlightsFannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) increased in January by 3.5 points to 70.7. The HPSI is up 9.1 points compared to the same time last year. Read the full research report for additional information. To receive e-mail updates with other housing market research from Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research Group, please click here. SOURCE Fannie Mae

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Yardi Matrix Anticipates Slowdown in New Construction in 2024

Multifamily construction starts expected to continue to moderate this year Multifamily construction starts declined in 2023, but exceeded expectations considering the turmoil in the financial markets. A new report on multifamily construction starts from Yardi® Matrix states that the number of units that broke ground in 2023 ranks third in recent years, behind 2022 and 2021. Full year data for 2023 is collected with a lag. As such, data shows that there were 506,742 new construction starts in 2023, which is 25.3 percent below the 2022 volume. Of these, 454,182 units broke ground during the first three quarters, marking an 11.6 percent decrease from the volume recorded over the same interval in 2022. The decline in construction starts started in the third quarter. “Yardi Matrix expects new construction to remain on a moderating trend in 2024. Meanwhile, multifamily completions will remain elevated in 2024 and early 2025 and will not bottom out until 2026,” say Matrix analysts. Construction trends vary geographically. Half of the 678,771 units that broke ground in 2022 occurred in 22 markets, and during the first three quarters of 2023, 18 of these markets registered declines in new construction. Some posted declines of more than 40 percent, such as Indianapolis, Salt Lake City, Austin and Seattle. The highest declines were recorded in the Bay Area-South Bay (down 72.4 percent), Urban Chicago (down 55 percent) and Las Vegas (45.8 percent). New construction remained on an upward trend in Phoenix, North Dallas, Raleigh-Durham and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater and picked up in Boston and Kansas City. The composition of construction starts changed over the last decade. Affordable housing grew from 8.4 percent of the pipeline in 2013 to 13.4 percent in 2023, while the share of single family rentals increased from less than 1 percent in 2013 to 5.8 percent in 2023. Review the latest bulletin on Multifamily Construction Starts from Yardi Matrix. Yardi Matrix offers the industry’s most comprehensive market intelligence tool for investment professionals, equity investors, lenders and property managers who underwrite and manage investments in commercial real estate. Yardi Matrix covers multifamily, student housing, vacant land, industrial, office, retail and self storage property types. Email matrix@yardi.com, call 480-663-1149 or visit yardimatrix.com to learn more. About Yardi Yardi® develops industry-leading software for all types and sizes of real estate companies across the world. With over 9,000 employees, Yardi is working with our clients to drive significant innovation in the real estate industry. For more information on how Yardi is Energized for Tomorrow, visit yardi.com. SOURCE Yardi

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Rampant, Increasing Fraud Impacting Rental Housing Costs

Throughout the country, incidences of rental application, financial and identity fraud are on the rise and fueled by social media. Results from a groundbreaking new survey of rental housing providers have revealed staggering increases of fraud, contributing to both the growth in rents and number of evictions. A vast majority of respondents (70.7%) reported experiencing an increase in fraudulent applications and payments, utilizing fraudulent documentation, financial statements and even identities in the past twelve months. Driven in part by social media platforms such as TikTok and Instagram, the rise in false rental housing applications is exacerbating rental costs, fueling the housing affordability challenges facing communities across the country and undermining the credibility of eviction data. These fraudulent incidents consist of a wide range of wrongdoing, including criminal behavior. One of the most notable findings in the survey was the share of evictions tied to fraudulent applications with respondents reporting that, on average, 23.8% of their eviction filings were linked to fraudulent applications and related failure to pay rent over the past three years. This in turn leads to higher costs for rental housing providers and, ultimately, the renters they house. The average respondent was required to write off nearly $4.2 million in bad debt over the past 12 months. Respondents reported that approximately a quarter (24.5%) of this bad debt, on average, could be attributed to nonpayment of rent due to fraudulent applications. “There has been anecdotal evidence of the rise in fraudulent activity over recent years, but now we have clear evidence of the staggering impact of these crimes on the rental housing market,” said NMHC President Sharon Wilson Géno. “While most renters are honest, those who are not are causing the cost of rental housing to increase for everyone. Additional delays in many jurisdictions in the lease enforcement process, even when there is clear fraud, incentivizes bad actors and means that this illegal behavior costs responsible renters even more. We call on lawmakers and courts to take action that will address this problem.” This new survey of rental housing providers conducted by the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC) found that nearly all respondents (93.3%) reported experiencing fraud in the past twelve months. Of those who experienced fraud: Respondents who observed an increase in fraudulent applications and payments reported a 40.4% average increase over the past 12 months. Sixty seven percent of those who experienced an increase in fraudulent applications and payments said that this varied by jurisdiction, and many (46.9%) called out Atlanta specifically as a jurisdiction where increases in fraud were most concentrated. Residents and rental housing providers can learn more about avoiding fraud and scams through this Consumer Financial Protection Bureau resource. The NMHC Pulse Survey on Operational Impact of Rental Application Fraud and Bad Debt was conducted from November 15, 2023, to January 9, 2024, and received responses from NMHC and National Apartment Association (NAA) members representing 75 leading apartment owners, developers and managers. The full survey can be found here. Contacts Colin Dunn202/974-2370cpdunn@nmhc.org

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PetScreening Recognized As A CRE Technology Influencer

Award from GlobeSt. Honors Company’s Impact on Multifamily Industry  PetScreening, which offers the rental housing industry’s first and leading pet policy management software at no charge to property owners and managers, announced it has been named a 2024 Influencer in Commercial Real Estate Technology by GlobeSt. The awards program recognizes companies and individuals who provide innovative technology applications for property owners and operators in the multifamily, retail, industrial, office, hospitality and healthcare real estate sectors. PetScreening and the additional honorees are profiled in a feature article on GlobeSt.com. “We are truly honored and humbled to receive this award,” said John Bradford, founder and CEO of PetScreening. “It is our company’s mission to provide powerful, yet easy-to-use technology that enables rental housing operators to embrace pet-inclusivity while also efficiently managing risk. This recognition provides yet more evidence that we are succeeding in that mission.” PetScreening’s Influencer status stems in part from its wide reach and impact across the multifamily industry. PetScreening is now serving more than 5 million apartments and rental homes across approximately 23,000 rental communities and properties. Prominent multifamily clients include Greystar, Willow Bridge, Equity Residential and ZRS Management. The company estimates it has helped owners and operators capture more than $72 million in pet-related revenue that otherwise would have been lost. It has generated over 3.5 million user profiles and completed more than 500,000 assistance animal reviews. The Influencer in Commercial Real Estate Technology award adds to a slew of recent honors for PetScreening. In 2023, the company was named the Software Solutions Company of the Year by the NC Tech Association, designated the Landlord/Owner Technology of the Year by the Information Management Network, included in the annual Inc. 5000 ranking for a second straight year and named to the Deloitte Technology Fast 500. In addition, Pat Patterson, PetScreening’s senior director of business development, enterprise, was honored as a Multifamily Influencer by GlobeSt. Real Estate Forum, while Chief Financial Officer Ellen Sondee was anointed CFO of the Year by the Charlotte Business Journal. About PetScreeningOffering the industry’s first and leading pet policy management software, PetScreening™ helps housing providers manage residents’ pets and assistance animals for free while generating opportunities for pet-related revenue. The digital screening platform standardizes risk assessment for household pets by providing a digital Pet Profile and FIDO Score for each pet screened. PetScreening also streamlines the assistance animal accommodation request review process while following HUD guidelines, and it helps limit unauthorized pets. The platform seamlessly integrates with third-party software such as Yardi, OneSite, Entrata, MRI, ResMan, Rent Manager, Appfolio, Buildium and many more. As a fast-growing innovator in the rental housing technology space, PetScreening has received multiple awards and honors in recent years, including recognition from the Inc. 5000, Deloitte’s 2023 Technology Fast 500, the NC TECH Awards and the Charlotte Business Journal’s Fast 50. For more information, visit www.petscreening.com. SOURCE PetScreening.com

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