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Mid-Atlantic Housing Market is Poised for a Rebound Heading into the Spring Market

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Buyers begin to return to the market in January as interest rates begin to level off and sellers may not be far behind As mortgage rates hit their lowest levels since September, buyers and sellers are coming to terms with 6% interest rates as the new normal. After record low sales activity at the end of 2022, the Mid-Atlantic housing market rebounded in January. Both pending sales and showing activity increased month over month throughout the region, while new listings showed some signs of life, according to the Bright MLS January Housing Market Report. The increased activity shows that the Mid-Atlantic housing market appears to have bottomed out at the end of 2022, however, the housing market remains slower than January 2022. Sales were down 33.4% compared to a year ago, and new listings were 6.5% lower. Transactions are taking longer, with buyers acting more deliberately, but prices are still on the rise. Median days on market rose 10 days to 22, while the median sale price increased 4.5% to $350,000. The Philadelphia metro led the region in price increases, up 4.7%, with Baltimore metro up 3.8%, and D.C. Metro lagging behind, up just 0.2%.  “Buyers who had been on the sidelines are showing eagerness to return to the market as rates dropped to their lowest levels since September, while sellers are starting to return in some markets, pushing new listings up month over month across the region,” said Bright MLS Chief Economist Dr. Lisa Sturtevant. “This is a sign that both buyers and sellers are adjusting to the ‘new normal’ of 6% mortgage rates, longer transaction times and more negotiations between buyers and sellers. Overall, the Mid-Atlantic housing market is poised for a rebound as we head into the spring market. “ Sturtevant noted that there is significant variation in housing markets across the region. Inventory is expanding in smaller markets, such as the Maryland-West Virginia Panhandle and southern Maryland and some markets such as Frederick and Carroll Counties in Maryland, and Camden and Mercer Counties in New Jersey are also seeing price declines year-over-year. As more workers are returning to the office, housing choices will be evolving. Second home and vacation markets could see further price declines as demand pushes prices higher in closer-in suburban markets of the Washington metro region, where there were higher median sales prices year-over-year in Alexandria City, and Arlington, Fairfax and Montgomery Counties.  Philadelphia Metro: Rising home prices and buyers returning to the market, could push sellers to list The Philadelphia market demonstrated its resilience in January, leading the Mid-Atlantic region in home price growth. The median home price in January was $314,000, up 4.7% from a year ago. The stronger price growth in January reflects better affordability in the region, as prices have fallen 10% from their summer 2022 peak. Despite that drop, the median price in the region is 31% higher than January 2020.  Despite decreases in closed sales (-34.7%), new pending sales (-20.6%) and showing activity (-32.5%) from a year ago, each of these metrics showed improvement on a month over month basis, indicating that buyers are returning to the market. New listings increased nearly 50% between December and January, but still remain lower than they have been in nearly two decades, which will create challenges for buyers. Baltimore Metro: Buyers are back, but the inventory struggle is real Buyers who returned to the market in January after wrapping their heads around higher mortgage rates were faced with another challenge – a lack of inventory. New listings were down 11.5% year-over-year, and were at the lowest level in more than two decades. There was just 1.11 months of supply across the metro area. A reflection of more buyers in the market, the median home price rose 3.8% in January to $329,950. However, Baltimore is somewhat a tale of two cities with demand in the suburbs driving the growth. Like the rest of the region and country, activity in the Baltimore housing market trails last year when mortgage rates were closer to 3.5%. Closed sales, new pending sales, and showings were down 34.6%, 24.0% and 33.7% year-over-year. Active listings increased 40.9% and the typical home spent 22 days on market, up 10 days from January 2022. Washington Metro: Buyers have the luxury of time  Buyer activity increased throughout the D.C. market in January from year-end but they were taking their time making a move. The time for a typical home to go under contract rose to 30 days – 17 days longer than a year ago, and back to January 2019 levels. In the region’s largest suburban markets—Fairfax, Loudoun, and Montgomery counties—the median days on market remained below 30. However, the typical home in the District took 42 days to sell in January. After declining in December for the first time since 2016, the median home price rose slightly (+0.02%) in the metro area in January. Prices appreciated in suburban markets but fell in Washington, D.C., indicating that the suburbs may see more demand and a faster recovery.  Following a slow end to the year, closed sales, new pending sales and showings were all up in January from December. Year-over-year, closed sales were down 36.1%, new pending sales fell 19.2% and showings were off 32.9%.  Active listings were up 42.4% year-over-year driven by slower market activity rather than new listings which were down 12.5% year over. However, the number of new listings increased month over month, indicating that inventory should increase in the coming weeks as sellers realize that they can use their equity gains to move up. With just one month of supply, though, buyers will still be faced with limited choices.  Full Mid-Atlantic and Metro area reports are available at BrightMLS.com/MarketInsights About Bright MLS Bright MLS was founded in 2016 as a collaboration between 43 visionary associations and two of the nation’s most prominent MLSs to transform what an MLS is and what it does, so real estate pros and the people they serve can thrive today and into our data-driven future through an open, clear and competitive housing market for all. Bright is proud to be the source of truth for comprehensive real estate data in the Mid-Atlantic, with market intelligence currently covering six states (Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia) and the District

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Housing market activity remains low as the federal reserve slows down rate hikes

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Net New Listings Placed on The Market Experienced a 43.9% Decrease Year-Over-Year Despite the Slowing Rate Hikes from the Federal Reserve Price Has Flatlined Due to Low Market Activity, Indicated by the Median Price Remaining Unchanged Month-Over-Month Tight Supply Points to a Balanced Market Environment, But Other Market Indicators Such as Days-On-Market and Sale-to-List-Price Ratio Suggest a Buyer’s Market is Imminent HouseCanary, Inc. (“HouseCanary”), a national brokerage known for its real estate valuation accuracy, released its latest Market Pulse report, covering 22 listing-derived metrics and comparing data between January 2022 and January 2023. The Market Pulse is an ongoing review of proprietary data and insights from HouseCanary’s nationwide platform. Since H1 2022, tight supply and low market activity have been some of the most prominent trends in the housing market. As 2022 concluded, we observed that the market may have been leaning in buyers’ favors. Since then, the median price of single-family rentals has remained unchanged, and metrics such as days-on-market and sale-to-list-price ratio have reinforced the idea that the market is inching closer to once again favoring buyers. Although market activity is significantly lower than in January 2022, the end of the holiday period has brought an increase in listings placed on the market. Additionally, a market shift is imminent as the most recent statement from the Federal Reserve indicated an increase of 25 basis points, the lowest rate hike since the meeting in March 2022. Jeremy Sicklick, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of HouseCanary, commented: “As we predicted in December, the beginning of 2023 is proving to show slow market activity, as both net new listings and contract volumes are sitting at multi-year lows. For the ninth consecutive month, we have experienced year-over-year net new listing and contract volume declines in the double digits, consequently driving prices downwards yet again. Although the housing market has seen better days, there is hope that a shift will occur with the rate hike slowdown from the Federal Reserve, which bodes well for buyers.” Key Takeaways: About HouseCanary Founded in 2013, national real estate brokerage HouseCanary empowers consumers, financial institutions, investors, and mortgage lenders, with industry-leading services including valuations, forecasts, and transactions. These clients trust HouseCanary to fuel acquisition, underwriting, portfolio management, and more. Learn more at www.housecanary.com.

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MRI Survey Reveals What Renters Want

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Green Practices, Digital Interactions, Luxury Amenities, and Future Homeownership The PropTech firm MRI Software has good news for landlords and property managers: They can easily make renters happy by adopting green practices and digital communications.  Additionally, luxury amenities earned top spots on renters’ wish lists. Although these are more difficult for landlords to provide, they add significantly to a unit or building’s appeal. These are the key findings from the recent Voice of the Resident Report commissioned by MRI. Survey respondents included more than 2,000 renters in the U.S. who live in a mix of locations and rental categories. Specific findings of the survey include: Zrimsek notes: “There is no secret formula to attracting renters these days. They want the convenience of digital, along with the assurance that their living space is environmentally friendly. Even landlords who don’t provide luxury amenities can incorporate these features into their property management processes and up their game significantly.” Download the full report here. About MRI SoftwareMRI Software is a leading provider of real estate software solutions that transform the way communities live, work and play. MRI’s open and connected, AI-first platform empowers owners, operators and occupiers in commercial and residential property organizations to innovate in rapidly changing markets. MRI has been a trailblazer in the PropTech industry for over five decades, serving more than two million users worldwide. Through innovative solutions and a rich partner ecosystem, MRI gives real estate companies the freedom to realize their vision of building thriving communities and stronger businesses. For more information, please visit mrisoftware.com.

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REDFIN REPORTS $2,500 MONTHLY BUDGET BUYS A $400,000 HOME AS RATES DIP BELOW 6%

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Home sellers are starting to come off the sidelines to meet buyer demand as mortgage rates steadily decline, with new listings and pending sales both posting their smallest drops in four months A homebuyer on a $2,500 monthly budget can afford a $400,000 home for the first time in four months as mortgage rates dip below 6%, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. The average daily mortgage rate came in at 5.99% on February 2, the first sub-6% average since mid-September, according to Mortgage News Daily. To look at the change in affordability another way, a buyer with a $2,500 monthly budget can afford to spend about $35,000 more on a home than they could have when rates peaked at over 7% in November. A buyer on that budget still has about $95,000 less in spending power than they did a year ago, when rates were sitting around 3.5%. But rates dropping by more than a full percentage point from their apex is a relief for buyers who had been waiting for rates to come down. Some of those buyers are returning to the market. Pending home sales fell 23% from a year earlier during the four weeks ending January 29, the smallest decline since September and a notable improvement from the November trough, when pending sales declined 33% annually. Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index—a measure of requests for tours and other services from Redfin agents—is up 19% from the October low. The market feels hotter, too, with 37% of newly listed homes accepting an offer within two weeks of hitting the market, the highest level since July. Home sellers are also starting to come off the sidelines. New listings of homes for sale declined 17% year over year—a significant decline, but the smallest one in over four months and an improvement from the December trough, when new listings dropped 24% annually. “We expect more homebuyers and sellers to gradually return to the market by springtime, but mixed economic news and mixed reactions from the market mean the recovery will be uneven,” said Redfin Economics Research Lead Chen Zhao. “The Fed’s interest-rate hike this week, for example, is both promising and disappointing. The Fed hiked rates at a slower pace than last year, which means mortgage rates are unlikely to rise further. But it also signaled ongoing rate increases to fight inflation, which will likely prevent the steep mortgage-rate decline that some optimistic buyers have been waiting for.” Mortgage-purchase applications rose 15% from their early-November trough but declined 10% from a week earlier, which could reflect the touch-and-go nature of the housing market recovery. It’s worth noting that it’s hard to draw a strong conclusion from this week’s decline because the mortgage purchase application index has been volatile the past few weeks. Leading indicators of homebuying activity: Key housing market takeaways for 400+ U.S. metro areas: Unless otherwise noted, this data covers the four-week period ending January 29. Redfin’s weekly housing market data goes back through 2015. To view the full report, including charts, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-mortgage-rates-decline-pending-sales-improve

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HOME EQUITY FLATTENS OUT ACROSS U.S. IN FOURTH QUARTER OF 2022

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Nearly Half of Mortgaged Homes Remain Equity-Rich but Portion Dips Slightly;Seriously Underwater Level of Mortgages Unchanged at Just Below 3 Percent;Sixteen Times as Many Mortgages are Equity Rich Versus Seriously Underwater ATTOM, a leading curator of real estate data nationwide for land and property data, released its fourth-quarter 2022 U.S. Home Equity & Underwater Report, which shows that 48 percent of mortgaged residential properties in the United States were considered equity-rich in the fourth quarter, meaning that the combined estimated amount of loan balances secured by those properties was no more than 50 percent of their estimated market values. The portion of mortgaged homes that was equity-rich in the fourth quarter of 2022 declined slightly from 48.5 percent in the third quarter of 2022, but was still up from 41.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021. While the equity-rich levels nationwide remain nearly double what it was three years ago, the drop-off in the last three months of 2022 reversed a string of 10 straight quarterly gains. The report found that the portion of equity-rich mortgage-payers went down from the third to the fourth quarter of 2022 in 31 states around the U.S. The dip marked one of the first signs of how a recent fall in home prices across the country has started to affect homeowners following a decade-long market boom. Despite the new pattern in equity-rich mortgages, however, the report also shows that just 2.9 percent of mortgaged homes, or one in 34, were considered seriously underwater in the fourth quarter of 2022. That meant that they had a combined estimated balance of loans secured by the property of at least 25 percent more than the property’s estimated market value. The latest seriously underwater figure was unchanged from 2.9 percent in the prior quarter, and was still down from 3.1 percent, or one in 32 properties, in the fourth quarter of 2021. Overall, 94.1 percent of homeowners paying off mortgages had at least some equity built up in their properties during the fourth quarter of last year. That also represented a slight decrease from 94.3 in the prior quarter, while still up from 93.5 percent a year earlier and 88.8 percent in late 2020. The portion of homeowners with equity rises further when accounting for homeowners who have paid off their home loans. “Dents are beginning to surface in the armor around the U.S. housing market after 11 years of a strong showing for owners,” said Rob Barber, CEO for ATTOM. “Home values have been dropping since the middle of last year, which appears to be starting to cut into homeowner equity around the country. That’s probably happening because values are sinking faster than owners are paying off their mortgages. How that shakes out over the next few months will depend on a lot of factors, including where interest rates go. But for now, it looks like the runup in wealth flowing from owning homes has stalled along with the market.” Largest decline in equity-rich share of mortgages spread across WestThe portion of equity-rich mortgages changed mostly by small amounts in different states from the third to the fourth quarter of 2022 – commonly by less than two percentage points. But the biggest drops were all in the West, following earlier quarters that saw larger gains in that region than elsewhere in the country. The fourth-quarter declines were led by Idaho (portion of mortgages homes considered equity-rich decreased from 65.8 percent in the third quarter of 2022 to 61.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022), Arizona (down from 63.4 percent to 59.9 percent), Nevada (down from 55.8 percent to 52.3 percent), Washington (down from 61 percent to 58.5 percent) and Oregon (down from 55 percent to 53.2 percent). At the other end of the spectrum, the South had five of the top 10 states where the equity-rich share of mortgaged homes increased the most from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of 2022. The largest increases were in Montana (up from 51.5 percent to 58 percent), Kansas (up from 34 percent to 37 percent), Delaware (up from 34.2 percent to 35.9 percent), Mississippi (up from 31.5 percent to 33.2 percent) and Arkansas (up from 36.6 percent to 38 percent). Small increases in seriously underwater mortgages clustered in WestWhile the portion of mortgage homes considered seriously underwater remained historically low in the fourth quarter of 2022 in most of the nation, the largest increases were clustered in the West. The top increases were in Missouri (share of mortgaged homes that were seriously underwater up from 5.2 percent in the third quarter of 2022 to 7.1 percent in the fourth quarter), Hawaii (up from 1.5 percent to 2 percent), Idaho (up from 1.9 percent to 2.2 percent), New Mexico (up from 2.7 percent to 3 percent) and Wyoming (up from 2.9 percent to 3.2 percent). States where the percentage of seriously underwater homes decreased the most from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of last year were Mississippi (down from 9 percent to 6.8 percent), Delaware (down from 3.9 percent to 3 percent), Montana (down from 3 percent to 2.2 percent), Kansas (down from 4.9 percent to 4.3 percent) and Arkansas (down from 5.6 percent to 5.2 percent). Equity-rich homeowners still concentrated in WestDespite seeing some of the largest decreases in equity-rich percentages, the West still had the highest levels of such properties around the U.S. in the fourth quarter of 2022, with seven of the top 10 states. Those with the highest portions were Vermont (76.6 percent of mortgaged homes were equity-rich), Florida (62.2 percent), Idaho (61.6 percent), California (61.5 percent) and Utah (60.3 percent). Nine of the 10 states with the lowest percentages of equity-rich properties in the fourth quarter of 2022 were in the Midwest and South. They were led by Louisiana (24.5 percent of mortgaged homes were equity-rich), Illinois (26.2 percent), Alaska (27.1 percent), West Virginia (30.1 percent) and Iowa (30.9 percent). Among 107 metropolitan statistical areas around the nation with a population greater than 500,000, the West and South again dominated the list of places with the highest portion of mortgaged properties that were equity-rich in the fourth quarter of 2022. All but one of the top 25 were in those regions, led by San Jose, CA (73.8 percent equity-rich); Sarasota-Bradenton, FL (70.5 percent); Fort Myers, FL (67.8 percent); San Francisco, CA (66.5 percent) and Los Angeles, CA (66.3 percent). The leader in the Northeast

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Top 10 Markets With the Biggest Increase of Homes for Sale in 2023

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Buyers are entering a calmer housing market, but with little incentive for homeowners with sub 3% mortgage rates to sell and 50 of the 100 largest markets expected to see inventory declines, they will continue to have a limited number of homes to choose from. Shoppers with some flexibility in terms of when and where they purchase may have a better chance of finding a home, according to the Knock Buyer-Seller Market Index. According to the Index, which analyzes key housing market metrics to measure the degree to which the nation’s 100 largest markets favor home buyers or sellers, the housing market has shifted dramatically over the past 12 months when none of the markets tracked favored buyers. In December 2022, 13 markets favored buyers, 43 were neutral, not favoring buyers or sellers, and 44 favored sellers. Despite a slight increase in home prices (+0.7%) from December 2021, homes sold at a lower price than the asking price in all but six of the 100 largest markets – Buffalo, N.Y.; Hartford, Conn.; New Haven, Conn.; Rochester, N.Y.; Springfield, Mass. and Syracuse, N.Y. Median days on the market increased to 29, a full two weeks longer than a year ago. At year-end, there were a total of 354,000 homes for sale, an increase of 32.1% year over year, primarily as a result of falling sales, not the addition of new listings. “We expect 2023 to bring more balance to the housing market, which is certainly good news for buyers following three years of intense competition. At the same time, with inventory down nearly 42% from the start of the pandemic and no real incentive for sellers to move, finding a home you both like and can afford will remain a challenge,” said Knock Co-Founder and CEO Sean Black. “Those buyers with flexibility on where and when to move have an opportunity to find more homes for sale in some of the nation’s largest and most desirable housing markets beginning in the fall.” The 10 markets where buyers will see more choicesIf one thing is true about 2023, it’s that buyers will experience different scenarios based on their location. While inventory is expected to increase 17% across the nation, the number of homes available for sale is expected to decline in half of the largest 100 markets. To find where it might be easier to buy, Knock looked at the markets where inventory is forecast to increase the most and when buyers will have the most options. The top 10 markets likely to see the biggest gains in for-sale homes in 2023 in rank order are: Salt Lake City; Dallas, Denver; Charlotte, N.C.; Memphis, Tenn.; Las Vegas; Charleston, S.C.; Colorado Springs, Colo; St. Louis and New Orleans. Inventory in these markets is forecast to increase throughout 2023, peaking in September, October and November. This means there will be more choices for buyers with flexibility to wait until the fall. Inventory in the Top 10 markets reached all-time lows during the pandemic. However, they did not see the same massive declines as the rest of the nation. In the three top markets – Salt Lake City, Dallas and Denver – inventory declined by approximately 20.3%, 34.3% and 19.9%, respectively, between December 2019 and December 2022. This is lower than the 42% decline seen nationwide. Although low housing inventory has led to record-high home prices over the past several years, the forecasted inventory growth in these markets won’t necessarily translate into home price declines. Only three of the markets – Salt Lake City, Las Vegas and New Orleans – are forecast to see price declines over the next 12 months. Six are projected to see prices rise with the median home price in St. Louis forecast to increase nearly 10% year-over-year. Currently, only three of these markets – Colorado Springs, Colo., Dallas and Las Vegas – favor buyers. By the second half of 2023, all but St. Louis, which will be in neutral territory, will favor buyers.  Markets forecast to see the largest inventory gains Rank Market ProjectedYOYinventorygrowth Mediansale price Projectedsale pricechange Month inventorywill peak Currentmarketstatus National 17.1 % $365,000 -4.0 % September Neutral 1 Salt Lake City, Utah 178.0 % $460,000 -17.0 % October Neutral 2 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas 100.4 % $375,831 6.3 % October Favors Buyers 3 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo. 95.1 % $550,000 4.8 % September Neutral 4 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia,N.C.-S.C. 81.8 % $349,000 7.9 % December Neutral 5 Memphis, Tenn.-Miss.-Ark. 48.2 % $255,000 0.3 % November Neutral 6 Las Vegas- Henderson-Paradise, Nev. 39.6 % $382,000 -6.8 % September Favors Buyers 7 Charleston-North Charleston, S.C. 39.3 % $362,500 0.0 % September Neutral 8 Colorado Springs, Colo. 38.0 % $430,000 0.5 % September Favors Buyers 9 St. Louis, Mo.-Ill. 35.8 % $230,000 9.8 % September Favors Sellers 10 New Orleans- Metairie, La. 34.2 % $270,424 -0.1 % October Neutral Buyers expected to return with seasonal force in spring, creating a window for sellersThe housing market will likely return to more seasonal patterns in 2023 – shifting toward sellers in the spring before moving firmly into buyer market territory by summer where it will remain through year-end. By December 2023, 34 markets are forecast to be buyers’ markets (up from 13 in December 2022), 34 markets will remain sellers’ markets (down from 44) and 32 will be neutral. Inventory constraints will keep home prices from falling significantly. Just 16 of the nation’s 100 largest markets are expected to see home price declines. In contrast, the forecast calls for median sale price increases of at least 10% in 20 markets during the same time frame. Home prices are forecast to peak at $366,000 by June 2023 – well below the record-breaking annual median sale price peak of $410,000 set in April, May and June 2022. By December, the median price is forecast to be $351,000, a 4% decline from $365,000 year-over-year. Home sales are forecast to decline by 10.5% year over year, with the number of home sales declining in 75 markets. Median days on market are forecast to increase to 52 days by year-end — the longest of any time since January 2017. Raleigh, N.C. and Greeley, Colo., are expected to lead the nation in days on market at 130 and 104 days, respectively. The sale-to-ask price ratio is forecast to hover between 2-3% below list price through spring. It will begin to decline in August, ending the year down 4%, the lowest since January 2017, the beginning of Knock’s Buyer-Seller Market Index. To view the full report, including

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