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Oregon and Washington Among Higher-Priced Areas of Nation Absorbing More of Recent Market Decline Based on Key Measures from First Quarter of 2023; Other Areas of U.S. in Lower Price Ranges Showing Less Impact from Downturn ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property, and real estate data, released a Special Housing Impact Report spotlighting how the recent downturn in the U.S. housing market is starting to affect counties around the nation, based on key measures from the first quarter of 2023. The report shows that the Western region and other more-upscale areas around the country are bearing the greater brunt so far from the slowdown, than other parts of the U.S., with larger-than-average declines in home values or increases in underwater mortgage rates and foreclosure activity. In contrast, lower-priced markets across the country have experienced relatively less impact from the market downturn that started in the middle of last year. The patterns during the first quarter of 2023 – based on changes in home price, home affordability, underwater mortgages and foreclosures since the second quarter of 2022 – revealed that almost half of the 50 counties seeing the biggest impact were in the West. Among the top 50, 12 were in Oregon and Washington. The downturn also has dented markets more often in areas where median home values exceed $350,000. As with the West, those more-upscale areas had almost half of the 50 most-affected counties during the first quarter of this year. At the other end of the spectrum, the South, Midwest and Northeast were seeing less fallout along with lower-priced markets. States in those regions, led by Texas, Connecticut and Illinois, had 18 of the 50 counties showing the smallest effects from the pullback that hit last year after a decade of nearly unceasing gains in prices, profits and other key measures. “We are starting to see some patterns that show where the U.S. housing market is cooling off and how it’s hitting homeowners based on some key metrics. It looks so far—and it’s important to stress, so far—to be having more impact in places with the highest housing costs and less impact elsewhere,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “This doesn’t mean those markets are in danger of a big fall while others are immune, but the data does provide a useful geographical snapshot of the initial market dip.” Counties were considered more or less affected by the market slowdown based on changes from the second quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of 2023 in four measures: median home prices, the percentage of homes facing possible foreclosure, the percentage of average local wages required to pay for major home ownership expenses on median-priced homes, and the portion of homes with mortgage balances that exceeded estimated property values. The conclusions were drawn from an analysis of the most recent reports on each topic prepared by ATTOM. Rankings showing the most and least impacted markets were based on a combination of those four categories in 572 counties around the United States with sufficient data to analyze in the first quarter of 2023. Counties were ranked in each category, with the overall conclusions based on a combination of the four ranks. The new trends reflect a period when the U.S. housing market endured three straight quarters of flat or negative performance for the first time in more than a decade, as prices, seller profits and homeowner equity fell in most of the country while foreclosure activity rose. That happened as average home-mortgage rates doubled to more than 6 percent for a 30-year fixed-rate loan, inflation was as high as 9 percent, the stock market faltered, and economic uncertainty increased, even amid a period of historically high employment. Interest rates have stabilized, inflation has eased, and the stock market has improved in recent months, generating potential positive signs for the Spring and Summer buying seasons. As with past ATTOM reports on potential downturns, the gaps in the impact from the market drop-off do not suggest significant problems for housing markets anywhere in the nation. What they do show is different impacts in different local markets. Western counties and high-priced markets feeling more impact from market slowdownTwenty-three of the 50 U.S. counties considered most affected by U.S. housing market drop-off, from among 572 with enough data to analyze, were in the West region during the first quarter of 2023. The top 50 counties included seven in Oregon, mostly in or near the city of Eugene: Deschutes County (east of Eugene), Douglas County (south of Eugene), Jackson County (south of Eugene), Lane County (Eugene), Linn County (north of Eugene), Marion County (Salem) and Yamhill County (outside Portland). Another five were in Washington: Clark County (Vancouver), Cowlitz County (north of Vancouver), Skagit County (north of Seattle), Spokane County and Yakima County. Others in the top 50 were scattered around the country, with concentrations in areas where single-family homes typically sold for at least $350,000. Prices dropping faster while underwater and foreclosure rates grow in most affected marketsMedian single-family home and condo prices decreased between the second quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of 2023 by more than the nationwide 7.2 percent decline (from $345,000 to $320,000) in 31 of the 50 counties considered most affected by the market downturn. Typical values increased during that time in only three of those counties. The largest price decreases in those markets came in Washington County, PA (outside Pittsburgh) (median price down 25.5 percent from the second quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of 2023); Tompkins County (Ithaca), NY (down 25.5 percent); Peoria County, IL (down 24.6 percent); San Francisco County, CA (down 18 percent) and Boone County (Columbia), MO (down 17.6 percent). At the same time, underwater residential mortgage rates grew from the second quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of 2023 by more than the nationwide increase in all 50 counties considered most affected by the recent market trends. The national rate rose during that time from 5.9 percent to 6.2 percent. Among those 50 counties, the biggest increases in the portion of homeowners who owed more on their mortgages than the estimated value of their properties, included Dona Ana County (Las Cruces), NM (portion up from 7.8 percent to 11 percent); Pinal County, AZ (outside Phoenix) (up from 2.8 percent to 5.5 percent); Williamson County, TX (outside Austin) (up from 1.4 percent to 4 percent); Gaston County, NC (outside Charlotte) (up
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