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Major Home-Ownership Expenses Again Require One-Third of Average Wage Nationwide, a 16-Year High;Historical Affordability Also Stays at Worst Point Since 2007;But Both Measures End Nearly Three-Year Slide Amid Mixed Trends in Home Prices and Mortgage Rates ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property, and real estate data, released its fourth-quarter 2023 U.S. Home Affordability Report showing that median-priced single-family homes and condos remain less affordable in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to historical averages in 99 percent of counties around the nation with enough data to analyze. The latest trend continues a pattern dating back to 2021 of home ownership requiring historically large portions of wages around the country. The report also shows that major expenses on median-priced homes consume 33.7 percent of the average national wage in the fourth quarter – a level considered unaffordable by common lending standards. Both measures – historical and current affordability – have stayed virtually the same from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of this year after trending consistently against home buyers for almost three years. That has happened as major ownership expenses and wages both are virtually unchanged this quarter. But the two measures are still worse than they were a year ago and far weaker than in 2021. For example, the portion of average wages nationwide required for typical mortgage payments, property taxes and insurance are up three percentage points from a year ago and 12 points from early in 2021, right before home-mortgage rates began shooting up from their lowest levels in decades. The latest expense-to-wage ratio continues to sit above the 28 percent level preferred by mortgage lenders and marks the highest point since 2007. “The good news is that home affordability has stopped getting tougher around the U.S., at least for the moment. The bad news is that owning a home remains more of a financial stretch than it’s been for many years,” said Rob Barber, CEO for ATTOM. “The annual Fall slowdown in the housing market clearly has helped stem the tide working against potential purchasers. Whether that’s just a temporary thing tied to seasonal market patterns is something we won’t know until next year, especially given recent signs that interest rates are coming down. But for now, there is some break into the growing financial stress for house hunters.” The fourth-quarter trends come at a time of mixed patterns among home prices and home-mortgage interest rates. While average 30-year fixed mortgage rates around the U.S. have grown this quarter from 7.1 to 7.4 percent, the nationwide median home value has slipped almost 3 percent. Those two factors have helped to keep home ownership expenses steady from the third to the fourth quarter, which has helped to keep those costs from becoming even more unaffordable for average workers. Affordability had worsened almost every prior quarter since early 2021 as wage increases were outpaced by rising interest rates and prices that kept going up amid a decade-long market boom. Another round of price declines during the annual Winter market contraction combined with interest rate declines that have emerged very recently may help turn the affordability picture back around in favor of buyers. The report determined affordability for average wage earners by calculating the amount of income needed to meet major monthly home ownership expenses — including mortgage payments, property taxes and insurance — on a median-priced single-family home, assuming a 20 percent down payment and a 28 percent maximum “front-end” debt-to-income ratio. That required income was then compared to annualized average weekly wage data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Compared to historical levels, median home ownership costs in 572 of the 580 counties analyzed in the fourth quarter of 2023 are less affordable than in the past. That number is virtually the same as in the third quarter of this year and up slightly from the fourth quarter of last year, but more than double the figure from two years ago. Meanwhile, the portion of average local wages consumed by major home-ownership expenses on typical homes is considered unaffordable during the fourth quarter of 2023 in more than three-quarters of the 580 counties in the report, based on the 28 percent guideline. Counties with the largest populations that are unaffordable in the fourth quarter are Los Angeles County, CA; Maricopa County (Phoenix), AZ; San Diego County, CA; Orange County, CA (outside Los Angeles) and Kings County (Brooklyn), NY. The most populous of the 130 counties where major expenses on median-priced homes are still affordable for average local workers in the fourth quarter of 2023 are Cook County (Chicago), IL; Harris County (Houston), TX; Wayne County (Detroit), MI; Philadelphia, County, PA, and Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), OH. View Q4 2023 U.S. Home Affordability Heat Map Home prices decline quarterly but remain up annually in three-quarters of local marketsAfter jumping almost 10 percent during this year’s Spring and Summer home-buying season, the national median price for single-family homes and condos has decreased from $344,670 in the third quarter of 2023 to $335,000 in the fourth quarter. However, it is still up 6 percent from $316,000 in the fourth quarter of 2022. Data was analyzed for counties with a population of at least 100,000 and at least 50 single-family home and condo sales in the fourth quarter of 2023. Among the 47 counties in the report with a population of at least 1 million, the biggest year-over-year increases in median prices during the fourth quarter of 2023 are in Orange County, CA (outside Los Angeles) (up 14.7 percent); Fulton County (Atlanta), GA (up 14.7 percent); Broward County (Fort Lauderdale), FL (up 10.6 percent); Santa Clara County (San Jose), CA (up 10.4 percent) and Palm Beach County (West Palm Beach), FL (up 10.4 percent). Counties with a population of at least 1 million where median prices remain down the most from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the same period this year are New York County (Manhattan), NY (down 10.3 percent); Travis County (Austin), TX (down 3.4 percent); Queens County, NY (down 2.9 percent); Bexar County (San Antonio), TX (down 2.6 percent) and Philadelphia County, PA (down 1.9 percent). Prices growing faster than wages in half the U.S.While home values have settled down around the U.S. housing market, annual price changes still have outpaced changes
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