November 2023 – Page 2

Buyers Have a Few Things to Be Thankful For This Week, With Listings Rising and Mortgage Rates Falling

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The median monthly mortgage payment has fallen more than $100 over the last month as rates dropped from 8% to 7.3%. Buyers are acting on the good news: Mortgage-purchase applications increased 4% this week to their highest level in six weeks. This week has brought some hopeful news for homebuyers, with new listings posting their biggest year-over-year increase since 2021, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. Declining mortgage rates are also giving buyers a bit of relief, with rates clocking in around 7.3% this week, down from 8% a month ago. Redfin is taking a break from full analysis this week, but please see the bullet points and charts below for more housing-market data. Redfin will be back with commentary next week. Leading indicators Indicators of homebuying demand and activity Value(if applicable) Recent change Year-over-yearchange Source Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate 7.32% (Nov. 22) Down from 7.58% a week earlier; lowest level since mid-September Up from 6.64% Mortgage News Daily Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate 7.29% (week ending Nov. 22) Down from two-decade high of 7.79% a month earlier; fourth straight week of declines Up from 6.61% Freddie Mac Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted) Up 4% from a week earlier (as of week ending Nov. 17) Down 20% Mortgage Bankers Association Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted) Down 3% from a month earlier (as of the week ending Nov. 19) Down 7% Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents Google searches for “home for sale” Down 11% from a month earlier (as of Nov. 18) Down 7% Google Trends Touring activity Down 23% from the start of the year (as of Nov. 20) At this time last year, it was also down 35% from the start of 2022 ShowingTime, a home touring technology company Key housing-market data U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending November 19, 2023Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision. Four weeks endingNovember 19, 2023 Year-over-yearchange Notes Median sale price $367,750 4.6% Biggest increase in over a year. Prices are up partly because elevated mortgage rates were hampering prices during this time last year Median asking price $377,099 6.3% Biggest increase in over a year Median monthly mortgage payment $2,616 at a 7.29% mortgage rate 13% Down $124 from all-time high set a month earlier Pending sales 66,456 -8% New listings 73,891 5.2% Biggest uptick in over two years. The increase is partly because new listings were falling at this time last year. Active listings 871,492 -7.3% Smallest decline since June. Near highest level since the start of 2023. Months of supply 3.7 months +0.1 pt. 4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions. Share of homes off market in two weeks 34.8% Up from 31% Median days on market 34 -3 days Share of homes sold above list price 27.9% Up from 26% Share of homes with a price drop 6.5% +0.2 pts. Average sale-to-list price ratio 98.9% +0.4 pts. Lowest level since April Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending November 19, 2023Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy. Metros with biggest year-over-year increases Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases Notes Median sale price Anaheim, CA (17.4%) Cincinnati, OH (12.6%) San Diego, CA (12.6%) Baltimore, MD (10.2%) West Palm Beach, FL (9.9%) Austin, TX (-9.3%) San Antonio, TX (-3.4%) Portland, OR (-1.9%) Fort Worth, TX (-1.2%) Declined in 4 metros Pending sales San Jose, CA (14.2%) Columbus, OH (4.2%) Las Vegas (1.2%) Cincinnati, OH (-22.3%) New York (-19.1%) Portland, OR (-18.4%) Providence, RI (-17%) New Brunswick, NJ (-15.1%) Increased in 3 metros New listings San Jose, CA (25.6%) Phoenix (20.8%) West Palm Beach, FL (18.5%) Orlando, FL (16.5%) Pittsburgh, PA (13.2%) Atlanta (-16.1%) San Francisco (-10.3%) Seattle (-10.3%) Newark, NJ (-8.8%) Providence, RI (-5.5%) Declined in 16 metros To view the full report, including charts, please visit:https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-listings-rise-mortgage-rates-fall

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Increasing Adoption of Remote Online Notarization and Digital Real Estate Transactions The “US Real Estate Appraisal Market: Insights and Forecast (2023-2028)” report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com’s offering. The US real estate evaluation market has seen significant changes in recent years, as technology has become increasingly important in the appraisal process. Today, many appraisers obtain and assess property information using digital techniques such as aerial imagery, 3D modelling, and data analytics, allowing them to complete values more quickly and precisely. The US real estate appraisal market is expected to be worth US$9.27 billion in 2023, witnessing growth at a CAGR of 4.24%, over the projected period. Top Impacting Factors Driver: Technology Penetration in the Appraisal Industry The Digital AMC platform has the ability to leverage technology to automate processes and manage the network of field agents to improve quality. The technology (Solidifi) platform uses automated quality scoring technology, in addition to manual reviews, to reduce the number of touchpoints relative to traditional AMCs. Moreover, Solidifi has a unique appraiser scoring system which ranks appraisers on performance and quality metrics. This scoring becomes important to provide unbiased feedback to appraisers and to provide a transparent performance-based system for assigning future appraisal assignments. Better performance is rewarded with more work. Thus, such platform motivates the appraisers to deliver high standard and authenticated appraisals. Challenge: Restricted Demand for Appraisers Based on the Region Appraisers works in a very defined location and geography mainly due to types of logistics involved in the essential part of appraisal report generation process (usually due to difference in state licensing requirements and requires a good level of knowledge with respect to the regional dynamics of a specific real estate market). Thus, the demand for appraisal is very regional by nature. Now, the part of the US which is having shortage of appraisers effects significantly on the appraiser’s fees compared to part where there is oversupply. Mostly, appraisals cost US$400-600 and take about three-seven days for inspection of the house, though this may vary with different location and landscape. Also, appraiser supply can often be an issue in rural markets and in very active real estate markets. In a nutshell, demand of appraiser is directly proportional to the region. Trend: Improvement in Logistical Management of Appraisers Logistical management of appraisers is mainly handled by AMCs in the appraisal process, but certainly some are better than others and have invested heavily in solutions that improve the order management, appraisal scheduling, and route efficiency solutions. For example, Solidifi (The US Real Matters brand) has invested significantly to build out its capabilities in network management. Specifically, the company is able to monitor the efficiency of appraisers in real time (turnaround time and defect rates) and routes more work to highly rated appraisers depending on their current capacity. Besides Solidifi, LRES in this area (automatic assignment technology that identifies the best appraiser for a certain job) and ServiceLink’s Exos business (has a comprehensive scheduling solution that connects appraisers with other parties involved in scheduling, including the homeowner). Thus, the improvement in logistical management of appraisers overall improve the appraisal process which in turn positively affect the industry. Market Dynamics Growth Drivers Challenges Market Trends Analysis of Key Players The US real estate appraisal market is is very fragmented. The market is likely to be led by large national firms, but there are also many smaller regional and local firms, as well as independent appraisers, that compete within specific markets or regions. Companies and appraisers need to have a strong reputation for accurate and reliable valuations, as well as a good understanding of the local real estate market and the ability to adapt to changing market conditions. Additionally, companies that can offer additional services, such as technology solutions or data and analytics, may have an advantage over competitors who only offer traditional appraisal services. The key players covered in the report include: For more information about this report visit https://www.researchandmarkets.com/r/23oii1 About ResearchAndMarkets.com ResearchAndMarkets.com is the world’s leading source for international market research reports and market data. We provide you with the latest data on international and regional markets, key industries, the top companies, new products and the latest trends.

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Median Home Values Increase in Majority of Opportunity Zones Targeted for Economic Redevelopment Around U.S.; Price Trends Inside Zones Continue to Roughly Match Broader Market Patterns; Opportunity Zone Home Values Again Improve Slightly More Than Elsewhere ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property, and real estate data, released its third-quarter 2023 report analyzing qualified low-income Opportunity Zones targeted by Congress for economic redevelopment in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. In this report, ATTOM looked at 3,465 zones around the United States with sufficient data to analyze, meaning they had at least five home sales in the third quarter of 2023. The report found that median single-family home and condo prices rose from the second quarter of 2023 to the third quarter of 2023 in 54 percent of Opportunity Zones around the country and rose at least 5 percent in close to half. The price improvements in and around low-income neighborhoods where the federal government offers tax breaks to spur economic revival, again tracked closely with a nationwide rebound from a temporary dip in home values that hit last year. WATCH: ATTOM Q3 2023 Opportunity Zones Report The renewed price growth also continued a long-term trend of home values inside Opportunity Zones following along with broader market gains for at least the last three years – an ongoing sign of economic strength inside some of the country’s most distressed communities. Opportunity Zone markets even showed signs again, by one key measure, of doing slightly better than other neighborhoods around the country during the third quarter of this year. A slightly larger portion of Opportunity Zones versus other locations saw median values rise annually at a faster pace than they did nationwide. “The third-quarter price data shows that many of the country’s lower-income neighborhoods continue to come back from the brief downturn we saw last year, right along with the rest of the U.S. housing market. While there were exceptions, Opportunity Zones overall saw no extended backslide and continued to benefit from the boom that has spiked home values around the nation for more than a decade,” said Rob Barber, CEO for ATTOM. “That trend is likely connected to financially marginal house hunters getting priced out of more expensive locations and turning to places like Opportunity Zones for affordable homes. This should give investors looking to take advantage of Opportunity Zone tax breaks more welcome news about the potential for those neighborhoods.” Opportunity Zones are defined in the Tax Act legislation as census tracts in or alongside low-income neighborhoods that meet various criteria for redevelopment in all 50 states, the District of Columbia and U.S. territories. Census tracts, as defined by the U.S. Census Bureau, cover areas that have 1,200 to 8,000 residents, with an average of about 4,000 people. As they have historically, typical home values in most Opportunity Zones fell well below those in other neighborhoods around the nation in the third quarter of 2023. Median third-quarter prices were less than the U.S. median of $350,000 in 81 percent of Opportunity Zones. That was about the same portion as in earlier periods over the past year. In addition, median prices fell below $200,000 in 49 percent of the zones during the third quarter of 2023. Considerable price volatility also continued in Opportunity Zones, with median values either dropping or increasing by at least 5 percent in more than three-quarters of those locations from the second quarter of 2023 to the third quarter of 2023. That again likely reflected the small number of sales in many zones. Still, the latest trends marked the second straight quarter in which Opportunity Zone home values, in general, erased losses seen during the downturn that lasted from the middle of 2022 into early 2023. That highlighted an extended scenario of home-price runups across the U.S. leaving a significant cluster of potential buyers with limited resources and few choices other than the lowest-priced communities. The apparently healthy demand in the third quarter continued even as home-mortgage rates climbed back up toward 8 percent for 30-year fixed-rate loans over the Summer, and inflation inched upward cutting into what buyers could afford. “Like most places with fewer resources, Opportunity Zones remain especially vulnerable to negative forces affecting the housing market or the broader economy, so we will continue to keep a close watch on prices in those locations,” Barber added. “But the ongoing tight supply of homes for sale combined with high home-buying demand around the country suggests that Opportunity Zones are in a good position to remain on pace with the broader national trends.” High-level findings from the report: Media Contact: Christine Stricker 949.748.8428 christine.stricker@attomdata.com

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Home Sales Likely to Weaken in Near Term but Bottom Out Early Next Year Economic growth remains likely to decelerate and ultimately result in a mild recession in 2024, followed by a return to growth in 2025, according to the November 2023 commentary from the Fannie Mae (OTCQB: FNMA) Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group. While the combination of ongoing employment gains and decelerating inflation has increased the likelihood of a soft landing, the ESR group contends that, between a likely slowdown in consumption growth stemming from an imbalance between spending and incomes and the rising real federal funds rate weighing on consumer and business activity, a downturn remains the most likely outcome. With mortgage rates having previously neared the 8 percent mark, the ESR Group expects existing home sales to decline further in the near term but bottom out in early 2024. Regardless of whether the economy manages a soft landing or enters a mild recession, the ESR Group forecasts mortgage rates in 2024 to retreat from their recent highs and average 6.8 percent by the fourth quarter. As such, the ESR group expects home sales to begin to increase modestly over 2024 but to remain constrained by the likely persistence of the so-called “lock-in effect” and the low supply of homes for sale. New home sales and starts, which have remained comparatively resilient over the past year, are expected to remain so in 2024. “The economy is now slowing from the otherwise robust first estimate of third quarter growth,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “The slowdown in employment gains has continued, and stress is growing on consumers’ ability to sustain their high levels of spending – unsurprising results that we attribute to the often-lagged economic effect of monetary policy tightening. At the same time, housing has been and continues to be under serious affordability pressure, resulting in recessionary-level home sales activity. While many current owners with low mortgage rates will likely continue to be discouraged from listing their homes, we expect mortgage rates to trend modestly downward in 2024, which should help kickstart a gradual recovery in home sales into 2025.” Visit the Economic & Strategic Research site at fanniemae.com to read the full November 2023 Economic Outlook, including the Economic Developments Commentary, Economic Forecast, Housing Forecast, and Multifamily Market Commentary. To receive e-mail updates with other housing market research from Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research Group, please click here. SOURCE Fannie Mae

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New listings were near their six-month high in October, helping drive an increase in pending sales, though buyers backed out of deals at the highest rate on record. The recent drop in mortgage rates could give sales another boost in November. U.S. pending home sales rose 1% month over month in October to the highest level in a year on a seasonally adjusted basis. That’s according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. They fell 4.8% from a year earlier, but that’s the smallest annual decline in almost two years. Pending sales have been ticking up for several reasons: “I’ve had a lot of sellers reach out to me recently saying they’re ready to list their homes—a reversal from recent months,” said Heather Mahmood-Corley, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in Phoenix. “Everyone has a different reason for relocating. One of my sellers is moving because she wants to buy her father’s house and he’s giving her a deal, which helps offset the higher mortgage rate she’ll take on. Another is moving to Florida with her sister because her husband passed away; she built up a lot of equity, so is able to pay in cash. Other people are selling because they want to live somewhere more affordable.” October 2023 Highlights: United States October 2023 Month-Over-Month Change Year-Over-Year Change Median sale price $413,874 0.5% 3.5% Pending sales, seasonally adjusted 400,648 1.0% -4.8% Homes sold, seasonally adjusted 398,537 -1.8% -12.5% New listings, seasonally adjusted 487,401 -0.2% -4.5% All homes for sale, seasonally adjusted (active listings) 1,412,404 1.4% -12.5% Months of supply 2.7 0.1 -0.1 Median days on market 34 1 -1 Share of for-sale homes with a price drop 20.8% 2.4 ppts -0.9 ppts Share of homes sold above final list price 31.6% -1.7 ppts 2.7 ppts Average sale-to-final-list-price ratio 99.3% -0.2 ppts 0.5 ppts Pending sales that fell out of contract, as % of overall pending sales 17.2% 1.2 ppts 0.6 ppts Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate 7.62% 0.42 ppts 0.72 ppts But Buyers Backed Out of Deals at the Highest Rate on Record While pending sales have inched up in recent months, closed home sales have continued declining. In October, closed sales fell 1.8% from a month earlier and 12.5% from a year earlier, hitting the lowest level since the onset of the pandemic on a seasonally adjusted basis. That’s partly because many deals are falling through at the last minute. Roughly 54,000 U.S. home-purchase agreements were canceled in October, equal to 17.2% of homes that went under contract that month—the highest percentage in Redfin records that date back to 2017. That’s up from 16.1% one month earlier and 16.6% one year earlier. “I’m seeing a lot of cold feet,” said Redfin Tampa Sales Manager Eric Auciello. “Home prices are high, mortgage rates are high and insurance costs are high, and when buyers see the final number, a lot of them are backing out.” Some buyers are also walking away when sellers refuse to fix issues that come up during the inspection, according to Mahmood-Corley. “Buyers want turnkey houses because everything is so expensive now, whereas in 2021 and 2022, they felt lucky to get any house,” she said. “And while I’m seeing more sellers in the market, they’re squirrely too. They’re backing out when they don’t get the price they want.” The cancellation rate could tick down in November as buyers take advantage of the decline in mortgage rates. The average 30-year-fixed mortgage rate fell to 7.44% this week, the lowest level since September. Home Prices Climbed 4% From a Year Earlier The median U.S. home sale price rose 3.5% year over year to $413,874 in October and was up slightly (0.5%) from a month earlier. Prices were just 4.4% below their May 2022 record high of $432,732, in part because buyers are still competing for a limited number of homes, which is buoying prices; while listings have inched up in recent months, they remain historically low. Metro-Level Highlights: October 2023 To view the full report, including charts, please visit:https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-tracker-october-2023

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Austin, Denver, Seattle, Raleigh, and D.C. top the list of cities with the most momentum for STEM job growth Leading real estate advisory firm RCLCO Real Estate Consulting, announced the results of their 2023 STEM Job Growth Index (STEMdex), which projects which metropolitan areas will have the strongest outlook for growth in STEM jobs. Published annually since 2016, with the support of light industrial and office investment management firm CapRidge Partners, the STEMdex tracks and projects STEM job growth trends across the country by analyzing the economies of the largest metropolitan areas to understand which regions are attracting the jobs and employees of the future. Read the full report online. “STEM jobs are characterized by a highly educated workforce and are some of the highest paying, most economically productive jobs in any market,” said Gregg Logan, Managing Director of RCLCO. “Their importance in the economy cannot be overstated and our STEMdex, now in its seventh year of publication, aims to highlight the markets that currently feature strong levels of industry employment, and those likely to see strong growth in the future. We find the STEMdex is an easy and intuitive way for people to understand the trends in employment and housing that STEM jobs will bring to these cities in the coming years.” The index’s analysis focuses on metrics in four major areas RCLCO finds to be paramount to the growth of STEM jobs: STEM Trends/Economic Factors, Workforce Quality, Quality of Life/Health, and Business Climate. In total, RCLCO identified and weighted 25 different indicators they believe best characterize the four major categories and can quantify their impact on the STEM job market. Some of the highlights of this year’s list include: Three MSAs in California made this year’s list, while Texas and North Carolina both saw two cities in the top 20; no other state had more than one city in the 2023 list. 2023’s results are fairly consistent from 2022 with some notable moves: New York City, which ranked #13 last year, dropped off the list entirely while Orlando and Nashville both moved up the list significantly. 40% of the cities on the list maintained their precise ranking from 2022 – including Atlanta, Austin, Boston, Charlotte, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco and San Jose. The top 20 cities include: RANK MSA RANK MSA 1 Austin, TX 11 Minneapolis, MN 2 Denver, CO 12 Salt Lake City, UT 3 Seattle, WA 13 Orlando, FL 4 Raleigh, NC 14 Charlotte, NC 5 Washington, DC 15 Atlanta, GA 6 San Francisco, CA 16 Nashville, TN 7 Portland, OR 17 San Diego, CA 8 San Jose, CA 18 Richmond, VA 9 Boston, MA 19 Baltimore, MD 10 Dallas, TX 20 Philadelphia, PA About RCLCO Since 1967, RCLCO Real Estate Consulting has been the “first call” for real estate developers, investors, public institutions, and non-real estate companies seeking strategic and tactical advice regarding property investment, planning, and development. RCLCO leverages quantitative analytics platforms and a strategic planning framework to provide end-to-end business planning and implementation solutions at an entity, portfolio, or project level. With the insights and experience gained over 50 years and thousands of projects – touching over $5B of real estate activity each year – RCLCO brings success to all product types across the United States and around the world. RCLCO is headquartered in Bethesda, MD, and has offices in Los Angeles, CA, Orlando, FL, Austin, TX, and Denver, CO. To learn more about RCLCO, visit www.rclco.com.