September 2023 – Page 4

Annual Growth Rate Accelerates as Home Prices Set New Record High

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— The Black Knight HPI hit another all-time high in July, with the annual rate of growth jumping to +2.3% from a revised +0.9% in June — The reaccelerating annual growth rate was driven as much by the price declines of last July providing a lower starting point as it was by July 2023 gains themselves — August will likely see further reacceleration in annual growth with prices already up a seasonally adjusted 2.9% from August 2022 and 4.4% from the start of the year — At the same time, non-adjusted monthly gains fell below their 25-year average after significantly outpacing historical averages from February through June, signaling a slowdown may be underway — Though prices rose on both seasonally adjusted and non-adjusted levels, after five months of above average gains, July’s 0.23% non-adjusted change was smaller than the 25-year average increase of 0.34% for the month — Seasonally adjusted price gains were observed in 99 of the 100 largest markets in July; however, growth rates cooled with three-quarters of markets experiencing smaller monthly gains than they had in June — Black Knight transaction and rate lock data both point to slowdowns in demand, with the seasonally adjusted price per square foot on closed sales falling alongside the average non-adjusted purchase price on locked loans — As extremely tight home affordability could continue to weigh on month-to-month growth, it will be worth keeping a close eye on monthly data trends as we move through Q3 — With rates at 7.23% as of Aug. 24, the P&I payment to purchase the median-priced home using a 20% down, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage had risen to $2,423 – a 91% increase over just the past two years — It now takes 38.3% of the median household income to make the monthly payment on the median-priced home purchase, making housing the least affordable that it’s been since 1984 The Data & Analytics division of Black Knight, Inc. (NYSE:BKI) released a high-level summary of the latest Home Price Index for July 2023. Even with interest rates hovering near 7.25%, home price growth continued in July to push home prices to yet another record high. However, as Black Knight Vice President of Enterprise Research Andy Walden explains, there were some mixed signals in the market data for July, raising questions about a potential downshift. “Home prices continued to rise in July, hitting a new record high for the third month running,” said Walden. “After picking up some small momentum in May and June following 14 straight months of slowing, the annual growth rate spiked to 2.3% in July. Further reacceleration is likely on tap for August as well, given that adjusted prices are already up 4.4% so far this year. Even if seasonally adjusted prices were to stop rising tomorrow, annual home price growth would climb to +2.9% by August and cross +4% by November, simply due to price gains that are already ‘baked in.’ If price gains were to maintain their current pace – which is unlikely given how tight affordability has become – it would result in annual gains returning above 7.5% by the end of the year. Either way, further acceleration in annual appreciation is almost a certainty for August. But that’s only half the story in July’s data – the housing market is sending somewhat mixed signals. “While home prices rose on both seasonally adjusted and non-adjusted bases, July’s 0.23% non-adjusted month-over-month growth was smaller than the 0.34% non-adjusted increase July has seen on average over the past 25 years, suggesting a possible transition may be underway,” Walden continued. “Indeed – in addition to monthly gains slowing below long-term averages – Black Knight rate lock and sales transaction data also points to lower average purchase prices and seasonally adjusted price per square foot among recent sales. All of these factors combined underscore the need to focus on seasonally adjusted month-over-month movements rather than simply relying on the traditional annual home price growth rate.” In other observations from the July 2023 Black Knight HPI, seasonally adjusted price gains were observed in 99 of the largest U.S. markets; however, growth rates cooled at the core-based statistical area (CBSA) level as well, with three-quarters of markets seeing smaller monthly gains than they had in June. Austin was the lone exception, with prices there continuing to fall on a month-over-month basis – albeit modestly at this point (-0.1%). Hartford, Conn., yet again saw the largest increase, up 1.6% from June, with the following cities seeing seasonally adjusted prices rise by 1.0% or more: Providence, R.I. 1.2%; Philadelphia 1.1%; Cleveland 1.0%; Pittsburgh 1.0%; Miami 1.0%; and Buffalo, N.Y., 1.0%. Price growth continues to be strongest in the Northeast and Midwest, with Western states seeing more noticeable slowing from June’s growth rates as affordability continues to weigh heavily on those markets. For more information on Black Knight, please visit www.blackknightinc.com/. SOURCE Black Knight, Inc.

The National Rental Home Council

by Carole VanSickle Ellis
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Much More Than “Just An Investment” By Carole VanSickle Ellis In February 2012, Warren Buffett, chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway and famed “Oracle of Omaha,” sent the single-family residential world into a tailspin when he observed during an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that he would “buy up a couple hundred thousand” single-family homes if he could see a practical way to do so. Citing the need for an “enormous” management infrastructure as the reason he would not actually take the single-family rental plunge, Buffett continued, “I would load up on them,” and concluded, “If I was an investor that was a handy type…I could buy a couple [single-family homes] at distressed prices and find renters…I think that’s probably as an attractive an investment as you can make now.” Although Buffett held true to his word and stuck with investments in REITs (real estate investment trusts) instead of rentals, the rest of the real estate investing world, including a number of institutional investors and Wall Street firms, listened closely and took action. Today, little more than a decade after that fateful interview, institutionally owned single-family rentals (SFRs) play an outsized role in the housing market despite accounting for less than 2% of the overall market. Some media outlets and industry outsiders may portray institutional rental owners as a threat to other elements of the SFR industry, but David Howard, CEO of the National Rental Home Council (NRHC), believes that the industry benefits when everyone, from the behemoths to individual owners, works together. This is the message he delivers daily in Washington, D.C., and around the country as he works tirelessly on half of the council and the SFR industry. “Members of the NRHC come in all shapes and sizes, from large, national companies to small, local businesses to individual owners and everything in between,” Howard said. “Much of what we do at NRHC involves educating and informing policymakers about the critical role the [SFR] industry plays in the broader housing economy,” he continued. NRHC membership also includes SFR service providers, build-to-rent developers, and a vast array of business partners in the industry as well. Howard says that because the industry is new and often misunderstood, it is essential that SFR owners and partners have advocates in Washington, D.C., and elsewhere. “A lot of my job is walking the halls of Congressional buildings,” he noted. “NRHC serves as an advocate for the entire industry.” “There has been a perfect storm that has facilitated the growth of the rental housing space and, more particularly, the single-family rental sector,” said Mahesh Shetty, CEO of ILE Homes. “The space is still very fragmented, but there is a very positive long-term outlook because all of the forces — the demographic trends, the macro trends, appreciation — all lend themselves to growth in this particular sector. Shetty added he expects the SFR industry and institutional owners to emerge and become even more important to the housing economy as interest rates continue to rise from recent historic lows. “The path to the future is inclined toward companies that are operators, who can manage effectively while taking care of customers, and that are effective in creating value for investors,” he said. NRHC considers its role in this growth process to help owners operating at all scales to provide SFR-related solutions to “a housing market challenged by a stark undersupply of homes and continuing affordability concerns.” Howard, himself, describes the council’s primary purpose as “addressing the housing supply crisis by investing in communities and neighborhoods to support a housing market that can meet the needs of all Americans and their families.” This goal, which tops the list of the NRHC’s policy platform key points, is supported by efforts to “enhance the diversity of housing opportunities,” and “advocating for common-sense legislation governing housing development.” Howard noted a crucial component in reducing inventory-related market tensions will be the creation of policies at all levels of government regulation that will enable builders to “do what they do best” without preventing development of owner-occupied and rental housing or creating capital bottlenecks that interfere with the flow of funding for local residential projects. Not Just About Investors & Landlords: Residents Take Top Priority One of the elements of NRHC that sets the organization apart, Howard said, is the council’s prioritization of residents’ quality of life and community involvement. This is not just philanthropy; it is also good business. “We believe all Americans should be supported by policies that provide access to quality housing, no matter where they are on the continuum of renting or owning,” Howard said. “They deserve the same commitment from policymakers that homeowners are afforded, and our members encourage residents to be good citizens and active, involved members of the community.” Statistically, this kind of business practice benefits the entire community as SFR companies cumulatively pour more than $4 billion into home rehabs, create roughly 50,000 related jobs, and generate more than $300 million in local taxes and revenue each year. Historically, renters and their landlord have often been marginalized by their communities. Often, single-family rental properties have been seen as “a bet against homeownership,” Howard explained. “In reality, SFR assets are an important piece of a vibrant housing market and a steppingstone to homeownership,” he concluded. NRHC member Dana Sprong, co-founder and managing partner of Vinebrook Homes, has a mission for his company that intersects with these aspects of NRHC perfectly: providing affordable workforce housing. “We are really the only large SFR company with a singular focus on acquiring, rehabilitating, and leasing affordable workforce housing,” Sprong said. “Our goal has always been to provide hardworking folks with the opportunity to create their own version of the American Dream: access to clean, safe, affordable homes that can be leased or serve as a steppingstone to a home purchase.” Sprong explained that many of today’s rental residents find there are advantages in addition to affordability when it comes to renting a single-family home. “For starters, you have the ability to

Hawaii

by Carole VanSickle Ellis
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In the Aloha State, Real Estate Gets More Complicated By Carole VanSickle Ellis Hawaii is a state that stands alone, literally. Of all the states in the United States, Hawaii is the only one located outside of North America, the only archipelago, and the only state in the tropics. It is comprised of 127 volcanic islands, eight of which are considered the “main islands”: Niʻihau, Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Kahoʻolawe, Maui, and Hawaiʻi (“Big Island”). The state is known for its incredible beauty and, when it comes to real estate, for the incredibly high costs of living and home values that come as a result of extremely limited and beautiful livable acreage. Even prior to the horrific Maui County wildfires (see sidebar) that decimated more than 2,500 acres on Maui island (this accounts for much of the residential area on the island since more than half of the island is a conservation district and about 35% is agricultural land), the housing situation on all the islands was growing increasingly alarming. “Let me break it down for you. We don’t have enough houses for our people. If it’s not a crisis, if it’s not an emergency, I don’t know what is,” Hawaii governor Josh Green said in July of this year when he signed an emergency declaration on housing suspending six state and county laws governing land use, historic preservation, and environmental review. Supporters hoped the declaration would result in the construction of 50,000 new homes in the next three years, while critics warned overriding historic preservation provisions, land-use regulations, and environmental review could have dramatic and negative impact on all of the inhabited islands. For developers, the declaration represented a limited window of opportunity opened by a governor desperate to stop outbound migration to the mainland of residents who simply can no longer afford to live in the state. Fewer than one-third of households currently living in Hawaii can afford to buy a single-family home, and less than half can afford to buy a condo, according to the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization Fund. Median rental prices are also unaffordable to at least one-third of Hawaiian households. Green’s declaration altered Oahu’s zoning laws to permit the conversion of downtown office space to rentals and created a fast track for the development of affordable housing by removing land-use restrictions. It also itemized 34,000 units in the Honolulu city and county areas alone and spotlighted the “Top 10 Projects in the Pipeline” on the Big Island that could create approximately 4,000 housing units over the next decade. On Hawaiʻi, only two of those projects are currently under construction, but all project “100% affordable units” upon completion. Countering a Confusing Trend of Expensive “Stagnation” Although Hawaii tends to top the list when it comes to the most expensive places to live in the United States, the state’s housing market has been in a state of prolonged stagnation according to many analysts. So much of the local population has been priced out of the market that investment properties — even rentals — tend to perform better when they cater to out-of-town residents. Accessory dwelling units (ADUs) have been increasing in popularity recently because it enables current property owners to increase their passive income without acquiring more land. “This strategy is likely my favorite,” observed Koa Cassady, realtor associate for Dwell Hawaii/Ho’opili Living, “and it is arguably the most efficient option…because you already own the land, which we all know is the most expensive part of Hawaii real estate.” In fact, Cassady said, the land upon which a structure sits accounts for between 70 and 80% of a home’s total value in most cases in Hawaii. He noted, however, that ADUs in Hawaii do “come with their own set of unique challenges and regulations.” Naturally, the axiom “location, location, location” is truest when dealing with a chain of islands. This can also complicate matters for investors who do not live in the area who wish to purchase investment property. When looking at the median state numbers is not enough, breaking down median income by island or even neighborhood can help investors get a better picture. For example, Waikīkī, a neighborhood on the south shore of Honolulu, lost value over the course of 2022. However, median household incomes in that area are rising (by just over 4.5%) year-over-year, and neighboring Honolulu proper posted a 6.2% increase in median household income over the course of the same time period. This could indicate that Waikīkī is poised for additional growth as urban residents leverage their earnings to move outward. Investors should also remember that trends tend to be outsized in Hawaii due to the extremely limited nature of real estate in the Aloha State. While sales volumes are declining throughout the country as interest rates rise and homeowners decide to stick with their pandemic-era low rates rather than move, in Hawaii, the numbers are particularly stark. According to the Honolulu Board of Realtors, sales on Oʻahu declined 12% month-over-month in April 2023 and year-over-year by 43%. During the same time period, the Big Island of Hawaii posted a 34% decline in home sales year-over-year, and Kaui’s closed sales fell by more than 63%. Of course, the Maui wildfires have dramatically affected the real estate climate on that island and throughout the entire state; it remains to be seen how the local government will deal with the disaster and how that will affect the island of Maui and state as a whole. SIDEBAR Maui & the “Vulture Investor” Conundrum As horrifying wildfires tore through the island of Maui last month leaving death and devastation in their wake, the world was confronted with uniquely confounding images of tourists snorkeling on their Hawaiian vacations in the same waters where locals had recently swum for their lives from the maelstrom. Now that the fires have been largely contained and extinguished, hundreds of people are still missing from Maui and many are feared dead. As the residents of the island struggle

Essentials of Seasonal Maintenance

by Aimee Lindsay
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Enhancing Property Value Through Maintenance and Winterization By Aimee Lindsay As a real estate investor or property owner, it’s critical not to underestimate the importance of property maintenance in minimizing your investment costs and maximizing the long-term value of your assets. Regular maintenance is necessary to make the most of your investment, whether your goal is to sell quickly or earn the most income for your rental. A proactive approach may help you avoid costly damage that could harm your profit potential. It is especially crucial as we head into the fall and winter, as minor damage can quickly escalate into a serious issue when weather conditions harshen. The current market dynamics have made it more important than ever for investors to elevate their standards for property maintenance. High home prices and mortgage rates have slowed the purchase market down significantly. The single-family rental (SFR)market has also cooled, with rental growth slowing progressively over the last year, according to CoreLogic’s Single-Family Rent Index. In the meantime, owners are competing to have the best property in the neighborhood in terms of value and also appearance. How a property presents itself tells buyers and tenants a great deal about the amount of care the owner has put into the property. Importantly, the appearance of a home can make a significant difference in its sale price and rental potential. Homes that are well-maintained, aesthetically pleasing, and show an attention to detail generally have a higher perceived value. On the other hand, homes that appear shabby, neglected, or in need of repairs may have a lower perceived value and could potentially sell or rent for less. According to a joint study by the University of Alabama and the University of Texas published in the Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, attractive, well-maintained homes tend to sell for an average of 7% more than similar houses with an uninviting exterior. That premium rises as high as 14% in slower real estate markets with greater housing inventory. Several factors contribute to the impact of a home’s appearance on its price: » First Impressions // The exterior of a home is the first thing potential buyers see. A well-maintained exterior, including a manicured lawn, clean façade, and attractive landscaping, can create a positive first impression and increase the perceived value of the property. » Interior Condition // The interior of a home also plays a crucial role. Homes that are clean, organized, and well-maintained can leave a positive impression on potential buyers. Up-to-date fixtures, fresh paint, and modern finishes can enhance the perceived value. » Perceived Maintenance Costs // Buyers often consider the potential maintenance costs when evaluating a home. A home that appears to be in good condition is likely to be perceived as requiring fewer immediate repairs, which can positively influence its value. » Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) // Real estate agents and appraisers use comparative market analysis tools to estimate a home’s value based on recent sales of similar properties. If homes in the same neighborhood with similar features and square footage have sold for higher prices due to their better appearance, this can impact the perceived value of your property as well. What You Should Do Whether your property is vacant or occupied, there are several steps to take before colder weather arrives to keep your asset ready to sell or rent for top dollar, or to keep your current tenants safe and satisfied. Exterior Fall Spruce-Up While the changing leaves can make autumn a beautiful time of year, those leaves also create a mess for property owners. Leaf debris can clog gutters, smother lawns, and allow fungus to fester. If left untouched, a gutter full of wet debris can freeze in winter and create an ice dam that may damage the roof deck. Tree limbs and shrubs that have grown close to the house over the summer also pose a risk, as they can cause damage when weighed down with snow and ice in the winter. That’s why it’s important to perform a fall spruce-up to keep the exterior of the property tidy: » Pick up all debris in the yard prior to mowing. Cut the lawn at 2 inches; grass clippings, leaves, limbs and debris must be removed from the property. » Leaves, pine needles and twigs should be removed and disposed of offsite in an appropriate manner. » Flowerbeds, driveways and sidewalks should be edged. » Remove all weeds and saplings from flowerbeds and around shrubs and fence lines. » Weed whack around house, fences, trees, and remove dead vines from fence, latticework, etc. » Remove all fallen limbs and excessive leaves from the roof. » Clean out gutters and remove all holiday lights. If there is a gutter guard, replace it after cleaning out gutters. » Prune branches from trees and shrubs that encroach on entryways, walkways, or sidewalks and trim at least four to six inches from the house or roof. Winter Maintenance Fresh snow and ice may appear to be a beautiful winter wonderland, but they can be a hazard for properties that have not been properly maintained. Winter weather conditions can create a high risk of damage to your roof, interior, and plumbing. Freezing temperatures outside and dry heated air inside can create a variety of issues from leaky roofs to frozen pipes. A small problem can suddenly become much bigger with heavy rain or a snowstorm. The following maintenance tasks should be completed before cold weather sets in: » Perform routine service on HVAC system and replace filter. » Flush out water heater to remove mineral deposits. » Caulk gaps around windows and add weather-stripping around door frames to create a seal against the cold air. » Clean out chimneys (if applicable) and fit with a cap to keep out animals. » Detach garden hoses and close the water valve to outdoor hose taps. Drain water from all exterior lines. » Evaluate insulation and ventilation in attic to insure proper circulation. » Inspect

The Future of Private Lending

by Cory Nemoto
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Institutional Investors & New Lending Models Are Reshaping the Industry By Cory Nemoto Private money as we know it today is not what it was less than a decade ago. Within the past decade alone, the private lending space has evolved, changed, and gone through multiple cycles. In that time, private lending has shifted from being solely a niche endeavor; today, it stands as an institutionalized force, presenting fresh opportunities for smaller lenders to emerge and provide value to the market. The shift towards institutionalization has been a pivotal turning point in the private lending space. Once considered a ‘mom and pop’ venture, the industry now assumes a professionalized approach that has attracted investors and borrowers alike. With this evolution, a range of innovative lending models, such as White Label and Correspondent Lending, has emerged, revolutionizing the way funds are channeled to borrowers. Not too long ago, the very concept of White Label and Correspondent Lenders did not exist in the private lending industry. However, with the industry’s expansion and diversification, these terms have taken center stage and transformed the private lending landscape altogether. White Label Lenders White Label lenders are a relatively new type of private lender that has been gaining popularity in recent years. In its valiant pursuit to unify and advance the Private Lending industry, The National Private Lenders Association (NPLA) has created the Private Lending Glossary, which defines a White Label Lender as: “A company that provides loan products or services under its own branding but relies on a third-party provider for underwriting, closing, funding, and servicing. This arrangement allows the white-label lender to offer a range of loan products without directly arranging warehouse financing or developing the infrastructure and expertise required to manage the entire lending process in-house. The third-party provider typically operates in the background, enabling the white-label lender to focus on marketing, customer acquisition, and building its brand.” As the landscape of lending continues to evolve with the emergence of these innovative lenders, it becomes imperative to delve into the advantages and potential drawbacks associated with these lending models. A few benefits of working with a White Label lender » Relationship // Since White Label lenders typically work solely on the origination side of the lending process, they are able to focus on building the relationship directly with the borrower and map plans to help them grow and scale their business with the proper leveraging of private capital given their current financial situation. » Flexibility // White Label lenders offer a variety of loan products, which can give borrowers more options to choose from. » Expertise // Since White Label lenders typically work with multiple capital providers, they need to be very knowledgeable of many different credit boxes, guidelines, and closing processes. They need to be aware and adapt as each provider’s boxes and guidelines change with the market and current economic conditions. White Label Lenders also work on the frontlines directly with borrowers, so they typically have real time knowledge and a good read on the industry as a whole, from both the lenders and borrower’s perspectives. Potential drawbacks to working with a White Label lender • Longer Closing Times // Since White Label lenders are held to third party processes, underwriting, and final approvals, it is not uncommon to see White Label lenders with slightly longer closing times. • Higher Fees // White label lenders may charge higher fees than working with a Direct Lender. • Limited Authority // White Label lenders do not have ultimate control or authority in whether or not a loan gets funded. Therefore, White Label lenders have no authority to make exceptions. If there are any exceptions needed on the loan, then the decision will ultimately be determined by the White Label lender’s capital provider. Correspondent Lenders Correspondent Lenders are another type of lender that have been around for many years and have made their way into the private lending industry. More commonly seen in the conventional lending space, these lenders originate and fund loans on behalf of a larger lender, such as a bank or mortgage company. The larger lender or investor then purchases the loans shortly after closing (NPLA Glossary). The institutionalization of capital in the private lending industry has birthed a market for new Correspondent Lenders to form and now participate in originating non-owner occupied private loans against real estate. Benefits of working with a Correspondent Lender • Wider Range of Loan Products // Correspondent Lenders often have access to a wider range of loan products than direct or retail lenders. This can be helpful for borrowers who need different types of loan products from short-term fix and flip bridge loans to long-term DSCR loans. • Flexible & Creative // Correspondent Lenders typically have multiple options for take-out partners, or investors and institutions to sell their loans to and recapitalize. They also have the option of holding the loan on their books. Therefore, Correspondent Lenders have some freedom to be flexible and creative with their lending products. • Full Authority // Since Correspondent Lenders typically fund loans with their own capital, or their own access to capital, they have full authority to make exceptions and fund a loan. Potential drawbacks to working with a Correspondent Lender • Higher fees // Correspondent Lenders may charge higher fees than traditional lenders. This is because Correspondent Lenders have to cover the costs of originating and funding the loan, as well as the costs of selling the loan on the secondary market. • Consistency // Since the Correspondent Lender (in a normal market) may intend to sell the loan to different take-out partners, their process and requirements of the borrower may differ and change on a deal-by-deal basis. • Subject to capital market conditions // Correspondent Lenders take on more risk than White Label lenders and are tied very closely to the capital markets making their leverages, pricing, and ability to lend vulnerable to major economic events as we’ve seen in recent years with COVID-19