How Modern Housing is Failing American Renters

…And How Property Investors Can Pivot to Win By Jon Friesch Nearly 30% of households are adults living alone, but the market still focuses on nuclear families. The housing supply we need already exists; we just need to know how touse it better. Across the country, low-income workers are running into a housing wall. With a shortage of more than 7.5 million homes and limited affordable options available, our vital workforce is forced to commute long distances, couch surf with friends and family, or worse, live in their cars to reach their paying jobs. With the current trajectory, there’s no bright spot on the horizon. As urban centers become denser and costs continue to rise and outpace wage increases, the housing wall is only growing and furthering the housing equity divide. A housing crisis rising from an outmoded model The traditional rental model wasn’t designed to meet the low-income earner’s financial capacity. The housing market is limited to serving people who make $50k or more a year and who have a credit score of 550. In contrast, 64% of rental households make less than $40k a year and the average workforce credit score is 461. This mismatch has serious consequences, both for the individual’s and our nation’s economic livelihood. Affordable housing is essential to personal economic well-being and a thriving workforce is instrumental in supporting a robust U.S. economic recovery. A struggling workforce that can’t secure affordable housing, or takes huge financial hits to do so, is not sustainable. “The entire affordable housing real estate ecosystem — developers and builders, architects, property managers, and those in law and finance, — stands to benefit from creating and preserving this stable asset class,” shares Richard Burns, Forbes Councils Member and President and CEO of The NHP Foundation. For example, affordable modern housing produces a reliable source of income for property owners. Unlike luxury properties that are more susceptible to fluctuations in occupancy rates, affordable properties stay rented and are often backed by a waitlist of hopeful tenants. Within the community, the diversity and range of incomes that affordable housing brings allow urban business owners to staff and grow their businesses more easily while increasing the purchasing power of those who have reduced housing costs. Burns also clarifies an important point for property owners: a potential investor with a good understanding of the economic benefits of affordable housing will be in a prime position to invest and build profitably. And the market opportunity for affordable housing is massive and growing. Our housing needs are shifting — can the market? We have a glut of unused space in cities across the country. If we look at the average square feet of new single-family homes from the years 1980 to 2020, we see an increase of almost 1,000 square feet. Simultaneously, the average household size over the same period has reduced from almost 3 people per home to 2.5.  Only 20% of today’s U.S. households are nuclear families, yet the housing market is still geared toward producing inventory focused on their needs. To give further insight into this market misalignment, nearly 30% of households are adults living alone. While the real estate investor competition remains focused on the 9.5 million small renter households that earn more than $50k, the market for one- to two-person households earning less than $35k a year (and can’t qualify for anything) sits untapped at 14 million. This represents one-third of the U.S. rental population looking for a viable solution. Coliving: An old solution with a new application and profitability As urbanization leads to unaffordable housing, the use of coliving spaces is becoming a solution borne of necessity. Low-wage workers are seeking ways to share cost burdens, and with projections that 70% of people will live in cities by 2050, coliving is a sustainable housing option to make city living more affordable and bearable. Historically, housing has often been shaped according to shared needs and resource concentration. Now squeezed by population growth and increasing real estate prices in the modern world, new models and new ways of configuring space are needed. PadSplit founder and CEO, Atticus LeBlanc took the concept of shared space and saw how to convert this unfulfilled market need into opportunity. He and his team developed a platform and playbook to make it easy and scalable for real estate investors anywhere to connect with the marketplace. From 2008 to 2016, LeBlanc owned and operated 550 affordable rental homes and gained a deep understanding of the problems low-income renters were facing. As a business person, he also understood the motivations and incentives of the private market.  With PadSplit’s approach, investors take the unused spaces (like a formal dining room or an extra bedroom) in existing single-family homes that never generate income and convert them into extra bedrooms that are private and rentable. By doing this, property owners create additional revenue streams that bring $500 and more a month extra in net revenue. LeBlanc knew he could further improve the offering and profitability by incorporating some traditionally time-consuming property management tasks into the platform. To further set investors up for success, PadSplit takes on the work of marketing the property, screening members and handling payments and collections. PadSplit worked with policy consultants to ensure its standards were based on HUD standards and that the technology allows maintenance to be tracked in real-time. Since rolling out the platform, PadSplit has seen other benefits as well. Property owners are realizing an increase in NOI on single-family rentals by 2-3 times. Vacancy rates, another important metric for property owners, also decrease. Because the demand for affordable housing is unending, PadSplit can fill rooms quickly with an average of 2.2 days in Atlanta, for example. And while the ability to easily collect weekly, personalized rent payments is an obvious asset to both renter and owner, the added boon has been collection rates of 96%. By building these operations into the technology and leaning into efficiencies of scale, PadSplit is making good on LeBlanc’s

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Home Flipping Remains Up In 2022

Number of Home Flips Hits Highest Level in More Than 15 Years By ATTOM Staff ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property, and real estate data, released its year-end 2022 U.S. Home Flipping Report, which shows that 407,417 single-family homes and condos in the United States were flipped in 2022. That was up 14% from 357,666 in 2021, and up 58% from 2020, to the highest point since at least 2005. The report reveals that the number of homes flipped by investors last year represented 8.4% of all home sales, also the largest figure since at least 2005. The latest portion was up from 5.9% in 2021 and 5.8% in 2020. But even as quick buy-renovate-and-resell turnarounds by investors shot up, gross profit margins on home flips in 2022 sank to their lowest level since 2008 following the second major drop in two years. Homes flipped in 2022 typically generated a gross profit of $67,900 nationwide (the difference between the median sales price and the median amount originally paid by investors). That was down 3% from $70,000 in 2021 and translated into just a 26.9% return on investment compared to the original acquisition price. The latest nationwide ROI (before accounting for mortgage interest, property taxes, renovation expenses and other holding costs) was down from 32.6% in 2021 and from 41.9% in 2020. Investors saw their profit margins drop for the fifth time in the past six years as the median value of the homes they flipped rose more slowly than the median price they paid to purchase properties — 12% versus 17%. The decline in home-flipping profits in 2022 continued to cast a negative light on a niche of the U.S. housing market that is growing but also struggling to figure out how to profit from changing price trends. The latest drop-off came during a year when the nation’s decade-long home-price runup began to stall, leading to the weakest annual gains in three years and even a decline in the second half of 2022. That happened as rising home-mortgage rates, consumer price inflation and other forces cut into what home seekers could afford, reducing demand and cutting into prices investors were able to get on resale. But profits for home flippers had begun diminishing in 2017 even as the broader housing market was booming. “Last Year, home flippers throughout the U.S. experienced another tough period as returns took yet another hit. For the second straight year, more investors were flipping but found no simple path to quick profits,” said Rob Barber, chief executive officer at ATTOM. “Indeed, returns are now at the point where they could easily be wiped out by the carrying costs during the renovation and repair process, which usually accounts for 20 to 33% of the resale price. This year will reveal more about whether investors decide to find different ways to profit from home-flipping or take a step back and wait for conditions to get better.” Home flipping rates up in almost all housing markets, with biggest increases in South and West Home flips as a portion of all home sales increased from 2021 to 2022 in 216 of the 218 metropolitan statistical areas analyzed in the report (99%). Among the 25 largest increases in annual flipping rates, 20 were in the South and West. They were led by:  »         Burlington, VT (rate up 283.7%)  »         Prescott, AZ (up 183.1%)  »         Bremerton, WA (up 182.7%)  »         Jackson, MS (up 176%)  »         Honolulu, HI (up 172.6%) Metro areas qualified for the report if they had a population of at least 200,000 and at least 100 home flips in 2022. Aside from Honolulu, the biggest increases in flipping rates in 2022 in metro areas with a population of 1 million or more were in:  »         Sacramento, CA (rate up 116.4%)  »         Atlanta, GA (up 94.3%)  »         Minneapolis, MN (up 72.8%)  »         Orlando, FL (up 72.2%) The only metro areas where home flipping rates decreased from 2021 to 2022 were:  »         New Orleans, LA (rate down 8.2%)  »         Green Bay WI (down 2.9%) Typical gross profits on home flips decline in half the nation Homes flipped in 2022 were sold for a median price nationwide of $320,000, generating a gross flipping profit of $67,900 above the median original purchase price paid by investors of $252,100. That national gross-profit figure was down from $70,000 in 2021 (the high point since at least 2005) but still up from $67,000 in 2020. Among the 56 metro areas in the U.S. with a population of 1 million or more, those with the largest gross flipping profits in 2022 were:  »         San Jose, CA ($242,625)  »         San Francisco, CA ($163,000)  »         Washington, DC ($146,728)  »         New York, NY ($141,332)  »         Seattle, WA ($137,664) The lowest gross flipping profits among metro areas with a population of at least 1 million in 2022 were in:  »         Kansas City, MO ($26,963)  »         San Antonio, TX ($29,000)  »         Houston, TX ($29,901)  »         Indianapolis, IN ($34,532)  »         Dallas, TX ($36,970) Home flipping returns drop in three-quarters of U.S., hitting lowest nationwide level in More Than 15 years The gross profit margin on the typical home flip in the U.S. last year fell to 26.9% — the smallest investment return since at least 2005. The ROI on median-priced home flips nationwide has dropped 15 percentage points since 2020 and is off by 24 points since 2016. Margins fell last year as the median nationwide resale price on flipped homes increased just 12.3%, from $285,000 in 2021 to $320,000 in 2022. That was less than the 17.3% increase in the price investors were paying when they bought homes (from $215,000 to $252,100). The typical home-flipping investment return decreased from 2021 to 2022 in 168, or 77%, of the 218 metro areas analyzed. Among metro areas with a population of 1 million or more, the biggest percentage-point decreases in profit margins during 2022 were in:  »         Rochester, NY (ROI down from 100.4% in 2021 to 55.6% in 2022)  »         Oklahoma City,

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