2022 – Page 9 – REI INK

HOMEOWNER EQUITY KEEPS GROWING ACROSS U.S. IN THIRD QUARTER DESPITE HOUSING MARKET SLOWDOWN

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Small Equity Gain Results in Nearly Half of U.S. Mortgaged Homes Now Considered Equity-Rich; Seriously Underwater Portion of Mortgages Stays Just Below 3 Percent; Seventeen Times as Many Mortgages are Equity Rich versus Seriously Underwater ATTOM, a leading curator of real estate data nationwide for land and property data, released its third-quarter 2022 U.S. Home Equity & Underwater Report, which shows that 48.5 percent of mortgaged residential properties in the United States were considered equity-rich in the third quarter, meaning that the combined estimated amount of loan balances secured by those properties was no more than 50 percent of their estimated market values. The portion of mortgaged homes that were equity-rich in the third quarter of 2022 increased from 48.1 percent in the second quarter of 2022 and from 39.5 percent in the third quarter of 2021. The latest increase fell below other gains in recent years. But it still marked the 10th straight quarterly rise, and resulted in virtually half of all mortgage payers landing in equity-rich territory. The report found that at least half of all mortgage-payers in 20 states were equity-rich in the third quarter, compared to only seven states a year earlier. “Even though home price appreciation has slowed down dramatically in recent months, homeowners have continued to build equity,” said Rick Sharga, executive vice president of market intelligence at ATTOM. “And it appears that many of those homeowners have decided to stay where they are rather than purchase a new home, and are beginning to tap into that equity, as the number of home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) issued in the second quarter of 2022 rose by 43 percent from the prior year.” The report also shows that just 2.9 percent of mortgaged homes, or one in 35, were considered seriously underwater in the third quarter of 2022, with a combined estimated balance of loans secured by the property of at least 25 percent more than the property’s estimated market value. The latest seriously underwater figure was the same as the 2.9 percent recorded in the prior quarter, but down from 3.4 percent, or one in 29 properties, in the third quarter of 2021. Overall, 94.3 homeowners paying off mortgages had at least some equity built up in the third quarter of this year, compared to 92.9 percent a year earlier and 87.7 percent in the third quarter of 2020. That level rises further when accounting for homeowners who have paid off their mortgages. Across the country, 39 states saw equity-rich levels increase from the second quarter of 2022 to the third quarter of 2022, while seriously underwater percentages dipped in 38 states. Year over year, equity-rich levels rose in all 50 states and seriously underwater portions dropped in 43 states. The ongoing, but relatively small, improvement in home equity during the third quarter of 2022 came as the U.S. housing market cooled considerably amid multiple forces that threaten to stifle or reverse an 11-year run of nearly uninterrupted price spikes and equity gains. Largest increases in equity-rich share of mortgages spread across Midwest, Northeast and South Nine of the 10 states where the equity-rich share of mortgaged homes increased most from the second quarter of 2022 to the third quarter of 2022 were in the Midwest, Northeast and South regions of the U.S. The biggest increases were in South Dakota, where the portion of mortgaged homes considered equity-rich rose from 36.7 percent in the second quarter to 41.8 percent in the third quarter, Vermont (up from 71.4 percent to 75.9 percent), Montana (up from 48.1 percent to 51.5 percent), Indiana (up from 43 percent to 46.2 percent) and Mississippi (up from 29.1 percent to 31.5 percent). The top five states where the equity-rich share of mortgaged homes decreased the most from the second quarter to the third quarter of this year were all in the West, led by Idaho (down from 69.5 percent to 65.8 percent), California (down from 63.1 percent to 60.6 percent), Utah (down from 64.3 percent to 62 percent), Washington (down from 63.2 percent to 61 percent) and Arizona (down from 64.8 percent to 63.4 percent). Largest declines in seriously underwater properties located across Midwest, Northeast and West The top 10 states with the biggest decreases in the percentage of mortgaged homes considered seriously underwater from the second quarter of 2022 to the third quarter of 2022 were spread across the Midwest, Northeast and West. They were led by Wyoming (share of mortgaged homes seriously underwater down from 7 percent to 2.9 percent), Montana (down from 3.9 percent to 3 percent), Kansas (down from 5.7 percent to 4.9 percent), Indiana (down from 3.8 percent to 3.1 percent) and Connecticut (down from 3.3 percent to 2.8 percent). States where the percentage of seriously underwater homes increased the most from the second quarter to the third quarter of this year were concentrated in the West. While most of the increases were minimal, the largest were in Mississippi (up from 8.1 percent to 9 percent), California (up from 1 percent to 1.4 percent), Idaho (up from 1.6 percent to 1.9 percent), Hawaii (up from 1.3 percent to 1.5 percent) and Washington (up from 1 percent to 1.2 percent). Equity-rich homeowners still concentrated in West The highest levels of equity-rich properties around the U.S. remained in the West during the third quarter of 2022, with six of the top 10 states located in that region. The top states were Vermont (75.9 percent of mortgaged homes were equity-rich), Idaho (65.8 percent), Arizona (63.4 percent), Florida (62.8 percent) and Utah (62 percent). Nine of the 10 states with the lowest percentages of equity-rich properties in the third quarter of 2022 were in the Midwest and South. The smallest portions were in Louisiana (24.5 percent of mortgaged homes), Illinois (26.3 percent), Alaska (26.7 percent), West Virginia (29.3 percent) and North Dakota (30.9 percent). Among 107 metropolitan statistical areas around the nation with a population greater than 500,000, both the West and South dominated the list with the highest portion of mortgaged properties that were equity-rich in the third quarter of 2022. All but one of the top 25 were in those regions, led by Austin, TX (71.6 percent equity-rich); Sarasota-Bradenton, FL (71.6 percent); San Jose, CA (70.6 percent); Fort Myers, FL (68.5 percent) and Tampa, FL (68.3 percent). The leader in the Northeast region again was Portland, ME (63 percent) while the top metro in the Midwest continued to be Grand Rapids, MI (51.9 percent).

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A few measures of homebuying demand stabilized in the last week of October, a month that saw one-third fewer pending sales than a year earlier One-third fewer homes went under contract in October than last year, the largest decline since at least 2015, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. Several pandemic boomtowns including Las Vegas, Miami and Phoenix posted declines of around 50%. Nationwide, a record-high share of home sellers dropped their price last month. But as mortgage rates dipped below 7% in the final week of October, a handful of key measures of homebuying demand stabilized after several weeks of declines: Google searches of “homes for sale,” Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index, mortgage purchase applications and pending sales. “This week the Fed brought into view the light at the end of the tunnel for slowing the pace of interest rate hikes, but that the tunnel’s exit may be more dreadful than expected,” said Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr. “There is also a glimmer of hope in the data that buyers stopped leaving the market as mortgage rates leveled off this week, but we’re still deep in a market that is coping with the pains of higher mortgage rates. Mortgage rates may take longer to come down than many have expected, which means housing trends could continue to worsen as the economy adjusts to higher rates. If last year’s housing market was as overheated as Chair Powell stated on Wednesday, then record growth in rates was like a bucket of water poured on the flames to bring it into balance. It may take some time for the smoke to clear to see where things stand next year.” Redfin agents in the Midwest and Mountain West report that they have seen first-time and other budget-restricted buyers return to the market in recent weeks to take advantage of the opportunity to be choosy about home features, take their time to make sure they are offering on the right home at the right price, do thorough inspections, make below-asking offers and negotiate for concessions from sellers. It’s too soon to say whether this is a momentary pause in the market’s cooling trend as buyers who have been watching and waiting seized a moment of stability in mortgage rates to make their bid, or if it’s the start of a broader leveling off in market activity as buyers adjust their budgets and expectations around a 7% mortgage rate. Leading indicators of homebuying activity: Key housing market takeaways for 400+ U.S. metro areas: To view the full report, including charts, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-demand-declines-ease/

ZOMBIE PROPERTY COUNT TICKS UPWARD AGAIN ACROSS U.S. IN FOURTH QUARTER BUT REMAINS TINY PORTION OF HOUSING MARKET

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Vacant Homes in Foreclosure Show Third Straight Quarterly Increase; Yet Zombie Properties Still Represent Just One of Every 13,000 Residential Properties Nationwide; Counts Continue Growing Since Lifting of Foreclosure Moratorium Last Year ATTOM, a leading curator of real estate data nationwide for land and property data, released its fourth-quarter 2022 Vacant Property and Zombie Foreclosure Report showing that 1.3 million (1,264,241) residential properties in the United States sit vacant. That figure represents 1.26 percent, or one in 79 homes, across the nation. The report analyzes publicly recorded real estate data collected by ATTOM — including foreclosure status, equity and owner-occupancy status — matched against monthly updated vacancy data. Vacancy data is available for U.S. residential properties at https://www.attomdata.com/solutions/marketing-lists/. The report also reveals that 284,423 residential properties in the U.S. are in the process of foreclosure in the fourth quarter of this year, up 5.2 percent from the third quarter of 2022 and up 27.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2021. A growing number of homeowners have faced possible foreclosure since a nationwide moratorium on lenders pursuing delinquent homeowners, imposed after the Coronavirus pandemic hit in 2020, was lifted at the end of July 2021. Among those pre-foreclosure properties, 7,722 are zombie foreclosures (pre-foreclosure properties abandoned by owners) in the fourth quarter of 2022, up 0.2 percent from the prior quarter and 3.9 percent from a year ago. The count of zombie properties has grown in each of the last three quarters. Click here for special Zombie Housing Market Infographic “The government’s foreclosure moratorium dramatically reduced the number of properties in foreclosure,” said Rick Sharga, executive vice president of market intelligence at ATTOM. “Vacant and abandoned properties were among the few homes that could still be foreclosed on during the moratorium, so the number of zombie properties shrank as well. Now that the foreclosure ban has been lifted, we’re likely to see a gradual return to pre-pandemic levels.” Despite the increase, the number of zombie-foreclosures remains historically low, representing just a tiny segment of the nation’s total stock of 100.1 million residential properties. Just one of every 12,963 homes in the fourth quarter of 2022 is vacant and in foreclosure, meaning that most neighborhoods still have no such properties. That ratio is almost exactly the same as in the third quarter of this year, although up 2.5 percent from one in 13,292 in the fourth quarter of 2021. The portion of pre-foreclosure properties that have been abandoned into zombie status, meanwhile, continues to decline, from 3.3 percent a year ago to 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2022 and 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter of this year. The latest trends – zombie foreclosure numbers up slightly but remaining tiny – again reflect one of many high points from a housing market that has seen 11 years of nearly uninterrupted gains. Median home values nationwide have more than doubled since 2012, home-seller profits have shot up over 50 percent and the vast majority of homeowners have equity built up in their homes. Those forces provide enormous incentive for owners behind on their mortgages to do everything they can to avoid abandoning their properties even as foreclosure activity increases. Home values dipped over the Summer of this year amid rising interest rates, a declining stock market and soaring inflation that have cut into what buyers can afford. But that has yet to significantly boost the presence of vacant properties in foreclosure. Zombie foreclosures inch up again but remain miniscule portion of overall market A total of 7,722 residential properties facing possible foreclosure have been vacated by their owners nationwide in the fourth quarter of 2022, up slightly from 7,707 in the third quarter of 2022 and from 7,432 in the fourth quarter of 2021. While zombie foreclosures continue to be few and far between in most neighborhoods around the U.S., the biggest increases from the third quarter of 2022 to the fourth quarter of 2022 in states with at least 50 zombie properties are in Kansas (zombie properties up 32 percent, from 44 to 58), Nevada (up 25 percent, from 81 to 101), Connecticut (up 15 percent, from 65 to 75), Georgia (up 15 percent, from 72 to 83) and Indiana (up 13 percent, from 239 to 270). The biggest quarterly decreases among states with at least 50 zombie foreclosures are in Michigan (zombie properties down 23 percent, from 99 to 76), New Jersey (down 12 percent, from 240 to 211), North Carolina (down 10 percent, from 144 to 130), Ohio (down 9 percent, from 925 to 841) and Maine (down 7 percent, from 72 to 67). New York has the highest overall number of zombie homes to all residential properties (1,995 pre-foreclosure vacant properties), followed by Florida (1,030), Ohio (841), Illinois (780) and Pennsylvania (368). “Low vacancy rates are also a major factor in there being few zombie homes,” Sharga added. “And with demand from both traditional homebuyers and investors still relatively strong, and the inventory of homes for sale still very low, vacancy rates for residential homes is about as low as it’s ever been,” Overall vacancy rates dip for third straight quarter The vacancy rate for all residential properties in the U.S. has dropped for three quarters in a row. It now stands at 1.26 percent (one in 79 properties), down from 1.28 percent in the third quarter of 2022 (one in 78) and from 1.33 percent in the fourth quarter of last year (one in 75). States with the biggest annual drops are Tennessee (down from 2.3 percent of all homes in the fourth quarter of 2021 to 1.25 percent in the fourth quarter of this year), Minnesota (down from 1.18 percent to 0.81 percent), Wisconsin (down from 1.02 percent to 0.69 percent), Georgia (down from 1.79 percent to 1.5 percent) and Oregon (down from 1.14 percent to 0.94 percent). Other high-level findings from the fourth quarter of 2022:

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Knock Buyer-Seller Market Index shows that 15 markets saw home prices fall by 10% or more from their highs set this spring, pushing more markets into buyer-market territory The cooling trend that is engulfing the U.S. housing market is expected to continue with more markets seeing home prices decline by this time next year as the shift to a buyer’s market continues to take hold, according to the Knock Buyer-Seller Market Index . The Index, which analyzes key housing market metrics to measure the degree to which the nation’s 100 largest markets favor home buyers or sellers, found home prices in 98 markets in September were below their peak price this spring. Providence, Rhode Island, and Salisbury, Maryland, were the only markets where home prices have remained at their peaks set earlier this year. In 15 markets, prices dropped by 10% and prices in 42 markets are projected to fall further from their 2022 records by September 2023. The total number of buyers’ markets increased to 16, more than double from August. This is expected to grow to 27 by September 2023. In a sign of the current market where high home prices and rising interest rates have pushed many buyers to the sidelines, just over 1.8 million homes had traded hands across the nation’s largest 100 housing markets through the first nine months of 2022 — less than during the same time frame in each of the past four years. Although still low, the supply of homes for sale has grown steadily throughout 2022 as median days on market increased to 20 in September – up by one full week from a year ago. The average sale-to-list ratio, which measures how close homes are selling to their asking prices, fell to 99% in September, the lowest level since February 2021 and down from 100.3% in May when home prices peaked across the nation. “Based on our findings, the shift to a more balanced market is still in its early stages. We expect that this much-needed reset will persist through much of 2023, and although prices will again begin to rebound they likely won’t return to their peaks for the foreseeable future,” said Knock Co-Founder and CEO Sean Black. “While many drivers of the housing market like demographics and record low unemployment have not changed, the combination of higher rates and home prices have put affordability at the worst levels in 30 years with entry-level monthly payments set to be 34% higher in 2022 vs 2021. The good news is that as prices soften and rates stabilize once the Fed is done with its aggressive rate hike campaign, hopefully after its meeting in November, buyers will be ready to re-enter the market and sellers will retain the majority of the equity gains they’ve seen in the last two years.” West and South dominate the 15 markets with the largest price declines Nationally, the median home price was up 6.6% to $388,000 year-over-year in September, but down 5.4% from its peak of $410,000 in May. Although seasonality plays a factor in home prices, the rate at which prices are appreciating is well below the double-digit growth seen over the past two years. Fifteen markets saw prices drop by 10% or more in September from their price peaks, which were set between April and June. Seven of those markets are in the West, another seven are in the South and just one, Bridgeport, Connecticut, is in the Northeast. Reno, Nevada, Winston-Salem, N.C., and Boise City, Idaho saw the biggest declines from their peak prices, falling 14%, 13.1% and 13.1%, respectively. According to the Index, home prices in 13 of the 15 markets will grow year-over-year, but are expected to remain below their 2022 peak pricing through September 2023. Winston-Salem, North Carolina (10.3%), Fayetteville, Arkansas (9.1%), and Seattle, Washington (8.9%) will see the largest year-over-year price gains. Home prices in Boise, Idaho, and Las Vegas, Nevada, are projected to decline further by this time next year. By next year, 42 markets will see price declines from their peak Home prices in 42 major housing markets are projected to fall further from their 2022 record highs by next September. Fifteen of the 42 markets are in the South, including three of the 10 markets with the largest forecasted price drops. Fifteen are in the West — home to some of the most expensive markets in the nation. The remaining seven and five markets forecasting prices below this summer’s peak are in the Midwest and Northeast, respectively. Bridgeport, Connecticut, is forecasted to see the largest price drop (-7.8%), while Springfield, Missouri, will lead the Midwest with a projected price decline of 3.9%. The top 10 markets with forecasted price drops through September 2023 are: Boise, Idaho (-16.2%); Lakeland, Florida (-14.2%); Las Vegas, Nevada (-14.2%); Reno, Nevada (-13.9%); San Francisco, California (-11.7%); San Jose, California (-9.8%); Austin, Texas (-9.3%); Oxnard, California (-9.3%); New Orleans, Louisiana (-9.3%) and Ogden, Utah (-8.3%). In 15 of the 25 markets with the largest projected median sale price declines, prices peaked at well above the national high of $410,000. The median sale price peaked at $1.3 million and $1.6 million in San Francisco and San Jose, California, in April 2022, respectively. Buyers’ markets will grow from 16 to 27 by next year; sellers’ markets will shrink to 43 Despite the cool-off – a majority – 51 markets – remained sellers’ markets in September, down from 83 in August. Housing markets that still favor sellers are generally smaller. Only two of the top 10 seller’s markets in September (Rochester, New York and Hartford, Connecticut) have populations of more than 1 million people. Sixteen markets significantly favored buyers in September. Austin, Texas; Boise, Idaho; Colorado Springs, Colorado; Detroit, Michigan; Jacksonville, Florida; Las Vegas, Nevada; Los Angeles, California; Nashville, Tennessee; Reno, Nevada; Ogden, Utah; Phoenix, Arizona; Riverside, California; Salt Lake City, Utah; San Diego, California; San Francisco, California; and San Jose, California, were in buyer territory last month. Thirty-three markets were neutral, offering no advantage to either sellers or buyers. By September 2023, the U.S. housing market will skew more toward buyers. Twenty-seven of the 100 major housing markets are projected to favor buyers, 30 will be neutral and 43 will favor sellers. According to the Index, slightly over a million homes are projected to be sold between January and September 2023, down from 1.8 million during the same period in 2022. The median sale price across the nation is projected to remain flat

Brian and Dana hardy

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From Success in Marketing and Interior Design to Success in Real Estate As relatively new independent business owners with HomeVestors® of America, Inc., Brian and Dana Hardy have much to look forward to if their very first sales call is any indication of future success. The Hardy’s currently live in Fort Myers, Florida, but bought their HomeVestors franchise based on the recommendation of a friend in Oregon, while still living in Portland, Maine. The year was 2021. Soon thereafter, the Hardy’s made the decision to relocate to sunny Florida. Success Before HomeVestors A life-long entrepreneur, Brian, 40, started his first design and marketing company at the age of 18 in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Among the businesses that he has successfully owned and operated are a trade show exhibit house, a full-service sign company and a fully-automated printing company. Brian then created FizzPop Media, a marketing agency and web development company that he still runs today, whose niches are the building and bio-tech industries. Dana, also 40, dabbled in interior design while working a normal 9-5 job, before getting involved in real estate. She studied interior design and photography at Drexel University and apprenticed under an accomplished interior designer. She later branched off into the graphics and design industry. “Those experiences combined, helped give me the confidence to venture out on my own to get clients and to also do the design work for our fix-and-flip real estate business,” explained Dana. Tiring of the nine-to-five routine, she gravitated toward real estate full-time, hoping to use her background to stand out from her peers. While in Maine, she was a Real Estate Broker. Off to a Good Start The Hardy’s bought their first franchise in Portland, Maine, before transferring the franchise to Florida. Their skill sets came in handy and proved to be very complementary to each other. Dana manages the real estate side of Tree City Properties LLC, including valuations, title, and design while Brian focuses on acquisitions and oversees the various contractors. However, when necessary, they still get their hands dirty and do some of the rehabs themselves. Already experienced as real estate investors doing fix-and-flips, they got off to a fast start, buying their very first house from their very first phone call. This first sale made the Hardy’s firm believers in the HomeVestors system. As Brian explained, “Do not prejudge any calls, go on every call, and get in as many living rooms as you can.” Sage advice for anyone new to real estate. His other advice, offered as a lifelong entrepreneur: “Don’t be afraid to take risks and don’t overthink everything.” Brian and Dana ended 2021 with five acquisitions. As Dana explained and Brian agreed, “From day one, we stuck to the HomeVestors formula. We followed the HVA systems, advertising, and marketing strategies… which was tough, considering we own a marketing agency. Their systems work.” Moving Forward The Hardy’s have their sights on two new goals: vacation rentals and spending more marketing and advertising dollars in Florida to acquire ten properties per year. And, doing all this while still running a successful media company. Homevestors What exactly does it mean to be a HomeVestors® business owner? Owning a real estate business is life changing and naturally comes with risks! When you become a HomeVestors business owner, you get immediate access to motivated seller leads, financing resources for qualifying purchases and repairs, one-on-one coaching with your local Development Agent, proprietary software for analyzing properties and deals, and access to a nationwide network of coaches and peers. Your house-buying business is yours and you run it as your own venture with a focus toward your individual business goals. If you are interested in a franchise, call 855-454-4518, email Sales@homevestorsfranchise.com or visit www.homevestorsfranchise.com. Each franchise office is independently owned and operated.