2022 – Page 72

Softening HPSI May Portend Slower Housing Market in 2022

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Affordability Expected to Be a Growing Challenge for Potential Homebuyers The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) decreased 0.5 points to 74.2 in December, as consumers continued to report substantially divergent views of homebuying and home-selling conditions. Overall, three of the index’s six components decreased month over month. In December, 76% of respondents reported that it’s a good time to sell a home, compared to the survey record-low 26% of consumers who reported that it’s a good time to buy. By comparison, in December 2020, 50% of respondents believed it was a good time to sell, while 52% believed it was a good time to buy. Year over year, the full index is up 0.2 points. “The HPSI’s underlying components changed dramatically in the last 12 months – particularly the two related to homebuying and home-selling sentiment – and we have seen the index drift slightly downward since March 2021, an indication that the housing market may begin to soften in the coming year,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Over the past year, low mortgage rates plus government stimulus programs helped increase mortgage demand, but the bidding-up of homes increased prices to record levels, making affordability a greater constraint for both first-time and move-up homebuyers. Among homeowners, the ‘good time to buy’ sentiment fell 30 percentage points over the past year to its current level of 30%; for renters it fell from 37% to 21%. Even though demand remains strong, a majority of consumers clearly have reservations about purchasing a home at current prices.” Duncan continued: “We currently expect mortgage rates to continue to drift modestly upward through year end, despite inflation concerns, which will likely compound the affordability concerns expressed by consumers in the HPSI. Recent MBS issuance data indicating a rise in average debt-to-income levels also backstop that concern, suggesting additional affordability constraints. Combined with our survey results showing rising expectations for higher rent prices among consumers, we believe some would-be renters may look to accelerate their home purchase timeline, helping to drive continued strong (though decelerating) home price growth. We do expect an increase in new homes to come to market later in 2022, which should provide some supply relief; however, it may not be enough to meaningfully affect home prices. As such, affordability is likely to be a growing challenge over the coming year.” Home Purchase Sentiment Index – Component Highlights Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) decreased in December by 0.5 points to 74.2. The HPSI is up 0.2 points compared to the same time last year. Read the full research report for additional information. Good/Bad Time to Buy: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home decreased from 29% to 26%, while the percentage who say it is a bad time to buy increased from 64% to 66%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to buy decreased 5 percentage points month over month. Good/Bad Time to Sell: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell a home increased from 74% to 76%, while the percentage who say it’s a bad time to sell decreased from 21% to 17%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to sell increased 6 percentage points month over month. Home Price Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months decreased from 45% to 44%, while the percentage who say home prices will go down decreased from 21% to 19%. The share who think home prices will stay the same increased from 28% to 30%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say home prices will go up increased 1 percentage point month over month. Mortgage Rate Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months decreased from 5% to 4%, while the percentage who expect mortgage rates to go up decreased from 58% to 56%. The share who think mortgage rates will stay the same decreased from 32% to 30%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months increased 1 percentage point month over month. Job Concerns: The percentage of respondents who say they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months decreased from 83% to 82%, while the percentage who say they are concerned increased from 15% to 16%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say they are not concerned about losing their job increased 2 percentage points month over month. Household Income: The percentage of respondents who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago remained unchanged at 23%, while the percentage who say their household income is significantly lower increased from 13% to 17%. The percentage who say their household income is about the same decreased from 61% to 59%. As a result, the net share of those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased 4 percentage points month over month. About Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment IndexThe Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) distills information about consumers’ home purchase sentiment from Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey® (NHS) into a single number. The HPSI reflects consumers’ current views and forward-looking expectations of housing market conditions and complements existing data sources to inform housing-related analysis and decision making. The HPSI is constructed from answers to six NHS questions that solicit consumers’ evaluations of housing market conditions and address topics that are related to their home purchase decisions. The questions ask consumers whether they think that it is a good or bad time to buy or to sell a house, what direction they expect home prices and mortgage interest rates to move, how concerned they are about losing their jobs, and whether their incomes are higher than they were a year earlier. About Fannie

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Supply Remained Tight in December as Monthly New Listing Volume Fell 10.6% Year-Over-Year While Median Single-Family Listing Prices Shrunk 2.2%, Median Single-Family Contract Prices Rose for Third Consecutive Month HouseCanary Forecasts 10-12% Increase in Single-Family Detached Prices Over the Next Twelve Months HouseCanary, Inc. (“HouseCanary”), a national brokerage known for its real estate valuation accuracy, released its latest Market Pulse report, covering 22 listing-derived metrics and comparing data between December 2020 and December 2021. The Market Pulse is an ongoing review of proprietary data and insights from HouseCanary’s nationwide platform. Jeremy Sicklick, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of HouseCanary, commented: “In 2021, the housing market drew plenty of headlines as a shrinking supply of homes available for rent and purchase caused properties to fly off the market at all-time high prices across the U.S. Toward the end of the year, the median listing and closed prices of properties in the U.S. began to deviate from each other, reflecting the significant leverage sellers often have in today’s sparse market. As we kick off 2022 with a significant COVID-19 resurgence, we can expect the nationwide shortage of homes for sale to persist well into the spring, driving home prices even higher. Given that the U.S. remains in a low inventory environment with inflation rates at their steepest in 40 years, it’s very likely this year will bring another double-digit increase in national home prices, with our models forecasting price growth in the 10-12% range.” Select findings from this month’s Market Pulse are below. Be sure to review the Market Pulse in full for extensive state-level data. Total Net New Listings: Since December 2020, there have been 3,218,779 net new listings placed on the market, which is a 4.6% increase versus the same period in 2020 Percentage of total net new listings over the last 52 weeks, broken down by home price: $0-$200k: 17.2% $200k-$400k: 40.7% $400k-$600k: 21.6% $600k-$1mm: 13.8% >$1mm: 6.7% Percent change in net new listing activity over the last 52 weeks versus the same period in 2020, broken down by home price: $0-$200k: (-19.9%) $200k-$400k: (-4.5%) $400k-$600k: +27.4% $600k-$1mm: +41.2% >$1mm: +39.0% Monthly Net New Listing Volume (Single-Family Detached Homes): Monthly new listing volume was down 10.6% compared to December 2020 In December, there were 139,832 net new listings placed on the market, representing a 16.6% decrease year-over-year For the month of December, the percent change in net new listing volume compared to December 2020, broken down by home price: $0-$200k: (-28.6%) $200k-$400k: (-20.5%) $400k-$600k: +0.8% $600k-$1mm: (-2.8%) >$1mm: (-10.4%) Listings Under Contract: Over the last 52 weeks, 3,448,546 properties have gone into contract, representing a 0.6% increase relative to the same period in 2020 Percentage of total contract volume since December 2020, broken down by home price: $0-$200k: 17.7% $200k-$400k: 40.8% $400k-$600k: 21.2% $600k-$1mm: 13.6% >$1mm: 6.7% Percent change in contract volume over the last 52 weeks versus the same period in 2020, broken down by home price: $0-$200k: (-23.4%) $200k-$400k: (-8.1%) $400k-$600k: +21.6% $600k-$1mm: +38.2% >$1mm: +43.2% Monthly Contract Volume (Single-Family Detached Homes): For the month of December, there were 238,594 listings that went under contract nationwide, which is a 1.1% increase year-over-year For the month of December, the percent change in contract volume compared to December 2020, broken down by home price: $0-$200k: (-10.7%) $200k-$400k: (-4.3%) $400k-$600k: +18.7% $600k-$1mm: +16.5% >$1mm: +0.8% Median Listing Price Activity (Single-Family Detached Homes): For the week ending December 31, 2021, the median price of all single-family listings in the U.S. was $373,619, a 7.3% increase year-over-year For the week ending December 3, 2021, the median closed price of single-family listings in the U.S. was $383,395,a15.1% increase year-over-year The median price of all single-family listings in the U.S. is down 2.2% month-over-month and the median price of closed listings has increased by 0.3% month-over-month About HouseCanary Founded in 2013, valuation-focused real estate brokerage HouseCanary empowers consumers, financial institutions, investors, and mortgage lenders, with industry-leading valuations, forecasts, and transaction support. These clients trust HouseCanary to fuel acquisition, underwriting, portfolio management, and more. Learn more at www.housecanary.com. If you are currently working with a real estate agent, this is not meant as a solicitation of your business. HouseCanary, Inc. is a Licensed Real Estate Brokerage in KS, NM, SC and under the Trade Name ComeHome in AL, AK, AZ, CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, FL, GA, HI, IA, ID, IL, IN, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MO, MN, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, NH, NJ, NV, NY, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SD, TN, TX, VA, VT, WA, WI, WV, WY. Trade Name ComeHome Real Estate in MI and UT.Trade Name ComeHome by HouseCanary in AR.HouseCanary, Inc., brokerage informationTREC Info About Brokerage ServicesTREC Consumer Protection NoticeCalifornia DRE #02113022

Word of the Day: Telos

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[TEL-ahs] Part of speech: noun Origin: Greek, 300 BCE Definition: An ultimate object or aim Examples of Telos in a sentence “Helen’s telos was to earn her Ph.D in chemistry.” “At this early stage, the nonprofit doesn’t seem to have a telos.” About Telos This word comes from the Greek “telos,” meaning “the end, limit, goal, fulfillment, completion.” It is possibly akin to Greek “tellein,” meaning to accomplish. Did you Know? Aristotle is often linked with the term “telos.” This philosopher linked ethics and politics with the idea of telos; according to him, everything has a purpose or final end. So if we want to understand what something is, it must be understood in terms of the telos, which humans can uncover through diligent study.

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Evernest, a full-service real estate and property management company, headquartered in Birmingham, Alabama, that specializes in the brokerage, renovation, maintenance, and management of single-family and small multifamily investment homes, announced that they have acquired Legacy Property Management. Evernest Founder and CEO, Matthew Whitaker said of the acquisition, “Denver and the front range have been an excellent market for us over the past 3 years. Any chance we can get to improve our footprint, which provides more value for our Clients, we’re excited to act upon it. Legacy Property Management is one of the premier property management brands in the area and we jumped at the opportunity.” “Annemarie Sunde, Managing Broker and Owner of Legacy has been a real estate investor advocate on the front range for many years. She’s not only built an incredible business but has gone above and beyond to protect the rights of rental property owners.” Evernest has grown from a small Birmingham-based property manager into one of the nation’s largest single-family and small multifamily investment property management service providers and brokers. They currently have offices in Atlanta, Birmingham, Boulder, Chattanooga, Colorado Springs, Columbus (OH), Denver, Detroit, Fort Collins, Jackson (MS), Little Rock, Memphis, Murfreesboro, Nashville, Toledo, and Tulsa. Evernest manages over 6,000 homes with almost 150 team members and has been on the Inc5000 list 5 out of the last 6 years. Sunde said of the sale, “When I decided to sell my business, I searched for a company who shared my passion for real estate owners. Evernest was started by a real estate investor and understands the challenges that come with owning rental homes. That type of Client empathy is hard to find in most property managers today.” Whitaker added, “This is our 17th company to acquire across the country. We continue to look for best-in-class property management providers who are looking to get out of the property management business or retire. We take what they’ve built and infuse it with our distinctive culture – what we call our ‘Three Uniques’ – 1. Our national brand with local team, 2. Being an investor’s real estate partner, and 3. Running all application underwriting in-house.” About Evernest – https://www.evernest.co/about-us/.

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The Pandemic Continued to Influence Americans’ Decisions to Move as They Relocated to Lower-Density Areas and Desired to be Closer to Family United Van Lines released the company’s 45th Annual National Movers Study which indicates Americans were on the move to lower-density areas and to be closer to their families throughout last year. The annual study, which tracks the company’s exclusive data for customers’ state-to-state migration patterns, determined Vermont as the state with the highest percentage of inbound migration (74%) with United Van Lines. Topping the list of outbound locations was New Jersey (71%), which has held the spot for the past four years. South Dakota (69%), South Carolina (63%), West Virginia (63%) and Florida (62%) were also revealed as the top inbound states for 2021. Meanwhile, states like Illinois (67%), New York (63%), Connecticut (60%) and California (59%), which have regularly appeared on the top outbound list in recent years, again ranked among states with the largest exoduses. In addition to the state-by-state data, each year United Van Lines also conducts an accompanying survey to examine the motivations and influences for Americans’ interstate moves. This year’s survey results indicated 31.8% of Americans who moved did so in order to be closer to family – a new trend coming out of the pandemic as priorities and lifestyle choices shift. Additionally, 32.5% of Americans moved for a new job or job transfer, a significant decrease from 2015, when more than 60% of Americans cited a job or transfer. “This new data from United Van Lines is indicative of COVID-19’s impact on domestic migration patterns, with 2021 bringing an acceleration of moves to smaller, midsized towns and cities,” Michael A. Stoll, economist and professor in the Department of Public Policy at the University of California, Los Angeles, said. “We’re seeing this not only occur because of Americans’ desire to leave high density areas due to risk of infection, but also due to the transformation of how we’re able to work, with more flexibility to work remote.” What’s more, amid the pandemic, many Gen Xers are retiring (often at a younger age than past generations), joining the Baby Boomer generation. While many are retiring to states like Florida, United Van Lines’ data reveals they’re not necessarily heading to heavily populated cities like Orlando and Miami — they’re venturing to less dense places like Punta Gorda (81% inbound), Sarasota (79% inbound) and Fort Myers-Cape Coral (77% inbound). Similarly, in Oregon, cities including Medford-Ashland (83%) and Eugene-Springfield (79%) saw high inbound migration in 2021. “For 45 years now, our annual United Van Lines study, with its data-driven insights, has allowed us to explore a deeper understanding of Americans’ overall migration patterns,” Eily Cummings, director of corporate communications at United Van Lines, said. “As the pandemic continues to impact our day-to-day, we’re seeing that lifestyle changes — including the increased ability to work from home — and wanting to be closer to family are key factors in why Americans are moving today.” Moving InThe top inbound states of 2021 were: Vermont South Dakota South Carolina West Virginia Florida Alabama Tennessee Oregon Idaho Rhode Island Of the top ten inbound states, six — Vermont, South Dakota, West Virginia, Alabama, Oregon and Idaho — are among the 20 least densely populated states in America, with less than 100 people per square mile. And, Tennessee and South Carolina are among the top 25. Moving OutThe top outbound states for 2021 were: New Jersey Illinois New York Connecticut California Michigan Massachusetts Louisiana Ohio Nebraska Nine of the top 10 outbound states are considered densely populated, further illustrating America’s shift to less crowded states. Balanced Several states saw nearly the same number of residents moving inbound as outbound. Kentucky and Wyoming are among these “balanced states.” Since 1977, United Van Lines annually tracks migration patterns on a state-by-state basis. The 2021 study is based on household moves handled by United within the 48 contiguous states and Washington, D.C. and ranks states based off the inbound and outbound percentages of total moves in each state. United classifies states as “high inbound” if 55 percent or more of the moves are going into a state, “high outbound” if 55 percent or more moves were coming out of a state or “balanced” if the difference between inbound and outbound is negligible. To view the entire 2021 study, an interactive map and archived press releases and photos from United, please visit United Van Lines. Press Kit:The United Van Lines 2021 National Movers Study press kit includes additional data, including a map, the complete inbound/outbound rankings for states and metropolitan statistical areas and statistics around COVID-influenced migration. Available on the United Van Lines website here. SOURCE United Van Lines CONTACT: For further information: Eily Cummings, United Van Lines, 636-349-2508, eily_cummings@unigroup.com; Bonnie Thomas, FleishmanHillard for United Van Lines 602-980-3117, bonnie.thomas@fleishman.com

Word of the Day: Rime

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[riym] Part of speech: Noun Origin: Old English, 12th century Definitions: Frost formed on cold objects by the rapid freezing of water vapor in cloud or fog. (Literary) hoarfrost Examples of Rime in a sentence “The sunlight bounced off the rime on the grass.” “The rime-covered trees looked majestic and otherworldly.” About Rime This word comes from the Old English “hrīm,” of Germanic origin and is related to the Dutch “rijm.” The word became rare in Middle English but was revived in literary use at the end of the 18th century. Did you Know? Rime is also the name of an adventure puzzle video game. Released in 2017, the game follows a boy arriving at and searching a mysterious island with a fox-like spirit as a guide. The player guides this boy in solving environmental puzzles across five levels.