Gainesville, Florida
This Hotbed of Growth Needs Real Estate Solutions By Carole VanSickle Ellis In June of this year, Gainesville, Florida’s home prices were on their way up, much as they have been for the last decade. However, this past June’s median sale price of $365,000 was a far cry from a decade earlier when median homes sales were less than one-third of today’s price tag. Alachua County, which contains the majority of the Gainesville metro area, has been a popular market for real estate investors for years due to the inherent benefits of investing in the southeastern United States, in general, and in the state of Florida, in particular. The combination of low cost-of-living expenses, no state income tax, low sales tax rates, and an extremely temperate climate have created a demand for Florida housing for decades. With the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic, housing demand skyrocketed. Even with many companies partially or entirely abandoning remote work practices in 2022 and calling employees back to offices in larger metro areas, that demand continues to create a white-hot market in central Florida as well as on the coastlines. Gainesville, with its central location (two hours of driving from Orlando and Jacksonville), the local presence of the University of Florida, and its position in the north central region of the Florida High Tech Corridor, is set to remain a market where housing demand is high and availability is scarce for the foreseeable future. “For every home based on a [given] price point, you will have possibly 10 buyers that want that home,” observed one local agent in May of this year. She noted that listings had plummeted to only about a fifth of the volume the area has seen in previous years. Although listing volumes have risen slightly since Spring 2022, rising interest rates will likely keep many buyers out of the market, keeping competition fierce even if the bidding wars involve three or five buyers instead of 10. Realtor.com analysts still rate the Gainesville market as a clear sellers’ market, noting that at the end of the summer, homes were on the market only 49 days. However, investors should note that homes are selling slightly below list price. In August, the median list price was $320,000, while median sales prices were just under $290,000. Given that the national median home price exceeded $440,000 midway through this year, however, demand in Gainesville is unlikely to ease to the point that prices will fall in the near future. A strong demand for housing from multiple, distinct populations of residents and ongoing scarcity issues have created an environment in Gainesville where fix-and-flip investors are thriving. While much of the rest of the country has posted falling returns for fix-and-flip deals, Gainesville flipping rates are still high. In fact, nearly one-sixth of all transactions are flips, according to ATTOM Data’s Q1 2022 “U.S. Home Flipping Report,” and cash buyers have a distinct advantage. “As interest rates continue to go up, cash buyers should be in an even greater position of competitive advantage in the fix-and-flip market,” wrote ATTOM Data executive vice president of market intelligence Rick Sharga. He added that investors with “larger, better capitalized” businesses could begin to increase their activities in the coming months. In the category of markets with a population of less than 1 million, only Durham, North Carolina, had higher flip rates than Gainesville. As of August 2022, available inventory was still falling, with 5.6% fewer homes for sale in the area than there were in July. While interest rates may be decreasing the volume of competition for properties, those still in the thick of things are highly competitive. A Prime Location for Education & Tech Gainesville is not necessarily the first market most investors might think of when they think of the sunny state of Florida. It is located in the northern, central part of Florida, without beach access (although Flagler Beach is about 90 minutes away, which places the city solidly in the “beach-proximal” category so important to many COVID-fueled moves), and about two hours from Disney World. However, Gainesville is home to the University of Florida and a clear landmark on the Florida High Tech Corridor, a 23-county region anchored by three of the largest research institutions in the country: the University of Central Florida (UCF), the University of South Florida (USF), and the University of Florida (UF). Of those three, Gainesville’s hometown university, the University of Florida, is ranked fifth on the U.S. News & World Report list of best public universities in the country, boasts an on-site student population of roughly 75,000, and is highly affordable. The Florida High-Tech Corridor was founded by the Florida legislature in 1996 as an economic development project intended to attract and retain technology companies. At that time, several companies in residence in the state were being actively courted by other states and even countries. The corridor was originally conceived as part of a larger plan to incentivize existing companies to reinvest in the area rather than relocate and to also bring in new tech companies from other areas. Gainesville’s University of Florida has served as a full partner and co-chair on the Florida High Tech Corridor Council since 2005. The institution also plays an active role in chairing and supporting the growth of related initiatives including grant-matching programs, STEM programs that connect students with experts in industry and help the state retain young, professional talent, and a variety of magnet programs in the Gainesville area centered around the life-sciences industry and artificial intelligence innovation. Gainesville has benefitted from the corridor and UF’s position as an anchor in its development both directly and indirectly. There are many nonprofits dedicated to innovation and business incubation now located in the Gainesville area, while the university itself prioritizes workforce development programs that create and sustain valuable jobs in sectors known for creating more employment and lasting opportunities. At time of writing, UF had recently made headlines for surpassing $1 billion in research spending
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