Springfield, Massachusetts
Looking for Stabilization, Growth in 2021 and Forward by Carole VanSickle Ellis Like most of the country right now, the Springfield, Massachusetts, housing market is hot. Median sales prices rose more than 17% in the Springfield area between January 2020 and January 2021, and Realtor.com reported in May that homes were selling, on average, for 2.63%above listing price. However, there are some signs that the Springfield market could “stabilize”as early as this fall, said local investor and residential real estate expert Alex Anthony. “I think we will still feel the pinch until the end of the summer, but I think the urban flight will subside provided the pandemic numbers continue to decline,” Anthony explained. “That will alleviate some of the pressure we have felt in this area.” In addition to working with retail buyers, Anthony, who is a realtor with William Raveis, works with real estate investors to acquire investment properties in the region. She reported she already is seeing signs that the pinch in inventory could be loosening in Springfield as multifamily property listings begin to hit the market along with desirable residential properties. “The entry-level homebuyer is starting to get more opportunities,” Anthony said, noting that high-end homes with outdoor entertaining areas are still in high demand. However, not everyone agrees with Anthony; WalletHub.com recently ranked Springfield among the “worst cities in the country for first-time homebuyers,” citing “expensive housing and high real estate taxes.” According to other data analysts, the city’s high quality-of-life rankings often cause would-be homebuyers to overlook these potential downsides to ownership in the Springfield area. Perhaps the most telling indicator for real estate investors interested in acquiring property in Springfield is a report from CoreLogic. The “Markets to Watch: Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline,” report uses CoreLogic’s Market Risk Indicator (MRI) to predict the overall health of housing markets. CoreLogic placed Springfield at the top of the “at-risk” list in July, assigning a probability between 25 and 50 percent that the market would see a price decline by July 2022. With continued demand in the area high, real estate investors hoping to buy and hold rentals or fix-and-flip to retail buyers are likely to see continued demand for properties—if they can acquire them. A History of Innovation and Resilience Springfield, which often bills itself as “The City of Firsts” and “The City of Progress,” was founded in 1636 and designated as the site of the Springfield Armory due to its central location (at the time) in the 13 colonies. The armory produced Springfield rifles for the Union army during the Civil War, and the local national park features the largest collection of historic American firearms in the world. Springfield also boasts firsts including the first American dictionary, the first American gas-powered car, the first successful American motorcycle company (Indian Motorcycles), and the first American musket. These innovations made the city an early center for precision manufacturing, but Springfield fell into an economic decline beginning in the 1970s following the closing of the Springfield Armory. However, by 2015, revitalization projects like the Hartford Line, a joint-venture project between Connecticut and Massachusetts that provides commuter rail service between New Haven, Connecticut, and Springfield, Massachusetts, were beginning to attract new residents and business to the area. The Hartford Line and Springfield’s relative proximity to both Boston and New York City made the area an attractive refuge for workers leaving these higher-cost areas during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Local experts believe many of these residents may be induced to stay permanently, and local policymakers were creating incentive programs for telecommuters moving to Western Massachusetts as early as 2019. One proposal provided up to $10,000 to cover relocation costs, office equipment, and acquisition of co-working space. “If done correctly…it can be a tremendous opportunity to expand job creation and opportunity, especially to regions that have been left out of the last 20-plus years of tech and biotech growth,” observed state senator Eric Lesser. He noted that the western area of his state, which includes Springfield, has “excellent schools, cultural resources, open space, and quality of life.” He hopes to add an east-west rail link connecting Boston to Springfield in the near future as well as improving internet connectivity in communities with lower-quality connectivity. Many of these communities will be areas that will interest investors because they contain lower-priced homes or are “gateway cities,” as Massachusetts defines midsize urban centers that have suffered due to the disappearance of manufacturing jobs. “Gateway cities face stubborn social and economic challenges, [and] as a result, they retain many assets with unrealized potential. These include existing infrastructure and strong connections to transportation networks, museums, hospitals, universities, and other major institutions, [and] disproportionately young and underutilized workers,” according to the 501c3 Massachusetts Institute for a New Commonwealth (MassINC). Springfield is classified as one of the 26 gateway cities in Massachusetts. MassINC analysts believe emerging small-business communities in Springfield and other gateway cities position them to “once again serve as engines driving growth in regional economies.” Milken Institute analysts Misael Galdamez, Charlotte Kesteven, and Aaron Melaas agree that Springfield could emerge as a driver of economic growth in the western Massachusetts region in the coming months. The trio of researchers authored the Milken Institute’s 2021 “Best-Performing Cities Index” report, which placed Springfield in the top 10 for Tier 4 cities in the study. Although Tier 4 cities may suffer from low-quality broadband and lower long-term growth rates, they were still considered noteworthy in the final results of the study. Study data showed Springfield’s job growth and wage growth remained on a positive trajectory although other data from the University of Massachusetts Donahue Institute indicates that more than half of renters in the area are considered “cost burdened,” meaning they spend 30% or more of their income on housing. The demand for housing is unlikely to decline in the near future; housing demand exceeded available units in 2020 by more than 11,000 units. “Much of this…can be explained by the slow
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