Seattle, WA
Rain City’s Market Remains Hyper-Competitive, “Complicated” By Carole VanSickle Ellis When investors think of Seattle, Washington, companies like Amazon, Starbucks, Zillow, and Microsoft likely spring to mind along with sky-high property values and lots and lots of rain. These are certainly facets of life in “Rain City,” but they only touch the surface of a complicated housing market and local economy. Although inventory levels in Seattle are sporadically rising, buyers are still facing extremely high housing costs and heated competition to reach the closing table. According to information from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service (NWMLS), prices in King County, where Seattle is located, are up about 14 percent year-over-year. In neighboring Pierce County, prices are even higher. Even with more inventory, as long as prices remain high the advantages to buyers may have more to do with the ability to bring back some of the “traditional” parts of the home purchase process like home inspections and the idea of using comps to set the starting bid. “Paying a fair price and being able to have a home inspection” could be back in the equation for Seattle-area buyers in the coming months, predicted Jon Bye, team lead at local real estate group Jon Bye & Associates. Bye told local news outlet King5 in mid-September that for the past couple of years if you wanted these things and you wanted to own a home in Seattle, “you had to roll the dice.” Now, the slight decrease in pressure on inventory might mean things that used to be “given” in the home-buying process might come back. He continued, “Before, when you had 10 offers, you would have six to eight of those be fairly normal, and then you would have two people that would really be running the price up really high. I think that is the stuff we might not see as much as what we have been used to over the next year or two.” Marco Santarelli, founder and CEO of Norada Real Estate Investments, summarized the situation, observing, “King County and Seattle remain a seller’s real estate market with only 0.62 months of inventory – still well below what is required to meet the volume of buyers right now…. If interest rates were not so historically low, buyers would be unable to afford the escalating cost of housing.” Santarelli predicted buyers would continue to seek homes in the Seattle suburban markets since increasing listing volumes are doing little to ease inventory shortages in the city proper and emphasized the market still offered opportunities for investors. “Seattle has a track record of being one of the best long-term real estate investments in the U.S.,” he concluded, citing 140-percent appreciation since 2012 and noting Realtor.com named Seattle as the #5 housing market for “combined sales and growth for 2021.” Thriving Local Employers Keep the Market Baseline Strong Although Seattle has had its fair share of COVID-related challenges since the novel coronavirus seized hold of the U.S. economy and began to shake things up in early 2020, the resilience of its largest employers (think Amazon and Microsoft) has helped keep the underpinnings of the real estate market strong. “The Emerald City…seems to be more insulated than other metros of comparable size,” observed Motley Fool Millionacres contributor Tara Mastroeni. This has held true not just for owner-occupied properties, but rental occupancy as well. “Other major metropolitan areas have had people fleeing their cities in droves now that they are free to work remotely. By contrast, Seattle’s rental vacancy rate rose 0.1 percent on a year-over-year basis, which is good news for landlords,” Mastroeni said. Of course, during the pandemic, low vacancy rates do not necessarily lead to high rates of on-time rental payments. Although Washington state estimates that statewide, between 80,000 and 150,000 renters were behind on rent payments in June of this year, The U.S. Census Bureau reported in September that “60,000 adults in the Seattle area are behind on their rent.” About half of those individuals reported being five months behind on rents but, interestingly, only about three percent said they were “very likely” to be evicted, likely because of current employment status. Amazon, Microsoft, and Starbucks alone account for about a sixth of employment in the Seattle area, and all three companies have resisted the pandemic downturn. Amazon reported 220 percent increases in profits in May 2021, while Microsoft reported a 33 percent profit this past July. Although Starbucks, the city proper’s second-largest employer, took a hit during pandemic-related shutdowns, in April of this year it reported a “full recovery” in the United States along with profits that had nearly doubled year-over-year. Investors interested in rental properties in the area can rely on solid employment opportunities for tenants but should bear in mind Seattle’s local government as well as Washington state’s government have a history of extending eviction moratoriums and stonewalling frantic landlords’ attempts to remove tenants who are deliberately damaging their properties. “The challenge is during this COVID moratorium, the city has passed new legislation which makes it more onerous…for us to successfully evict the tenants, and it has made it extremely expensive,” one local landlord complained. He cited as an example a tenant who has allegedly failed to clean up after his pets “in months,” owes $25,000 in back rent, and, at time of publication, could not be proven to a local court’s satisfaction to be “a threat to health and safety,” which would enable the landlord to remove the tenant in spite of the moratorium. Short-term rental investors should also be aware of Seattle limits on Airbnb properties imposed in 2017, which required all short-term rental operators to be licensed and limit new operators to listing only their primary residences and one other unit. The restrictions were intended to address a then-burgeoning (now full-blown) housing inventory shortage in the area. At the time, critics of the rules argued that most of the properties currently in use as short-term rentals were “unlikely to become affordable options for locals”
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