Home Affordability Slips Again for Average Workers
National Median Home Price Rises 18 Percent to Another New High ATTOM, curator of the nation’s premier property database, released its third-quarter 2021 U.S. Home Affordability Report, showing that median-priced single-family homes are less affordable in the third quarter compared to historical averages in 75 percent of counties across the nation with enough data to analyze. That is up from 56 percent of counties in the third quarter of 2020, to the highest point in 13 years, as home prices have increased faster than wages in much of the country. The report determined affordability for average wage earners by calculating the amount of income needed to meet monthly home ownership expenses — including mortgage, property taxes and insurance — on a median-priced single-family home, assuming a 20 percent down payment and a 28 percent maximum “front-end” debt-to-income ratio. That required income was then compared to annualized average weekly wage data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (see full methodology below). Compared to historical levels, median home prices in 430 of the 572 counties analyzed in the third quarter of 2021 are less affordable than past averages. The latest number is up from 317 of the same group of counties in the third quarter of 2020 – a downturn that developed as the median national home price shot up 18 percent to a record high of $315,500. While major ownership costs on median-priced homes do remain within the financial means of average workers across the nation in the third quarter of 2021, the percentage of counties where affordability is worse than historical averages has hit its highest point since the third quarter of 2008. The latest pattern – home prices still manageable but getting less affordable – has resulted in major ownership costs on the typical home consuming 24.9 percent of the average national wage of $64,857 in the third quarter of this year. That is up from 24.3 percent in the second quarter of 2021 and 22.3 percent in the third quarter of last year. Still, the latest level is within the 28 percent standard lenders prefer for how much homeowners should spend on mortgage payments, home insurance and property taxes. Those mixed patterns in the third quarter have followed similar trends from earlier in 2021 as the U.S. housing market continues booming despite damage to large segments of the U.S. economy caused by the Coronavirus pandemic that struck in early 2020. Home prices have continued rising in most of the country for the 10th straight year as a glut of home buyers chase a tight supply of homes for sale made even worse by the pandemic. The surge has come amid historically low home-mortgage rates and a desire of many households, largely unscathed financially by the crisis, to seek the relative safety a house or condominium and space for developing work-at-home lifestyles. Mortgage rates below 3 percent throughout most of the past year have helped offset the impact of rising prices, but not enough to prevent the cost of home ownership from getting closer to the unaffordable benchmark. “The typical median-priced home around the U.S. remains affordable to workers earning an average wage, despite prices that keep going through the roof. Super-low interests and rising pay continue to be the main reasons why,” said Todd Teta, chief product officer with ATTOM. “But affordability keeps inching in the wrong direction as the housing market boom keeps roaring ahead. That’s pushing average workers closer and closer to the point where lenders might be reluctant to give them a mortgage. With much still uncertain about how the pandemic and many other forces could still affect the economy, affordability remains a crucial measure of market stability that could easily keep going in the same direction or swing back the other way.” As historic affordability slides this quarter, major home-ownership expenses on typical homes still are affordable to average local wage earners in 303 of the 572 counties in the report (53 percent), based on the 28-percent guideline. The largest counties include Cook County (Chicago), IL; Harris County (Houston), TX; Dallas County, TX; Bexar County (San Antonio), TX, and Wayne County (Detroit), MI. The most populous of the 269 counties where major expenses on median-priced homes are unaffordable for average local workers in the third quarter of 2021 (47 percent of the counties analyzed) are Los Angeles County, CA; Maricopa County (Phoenix), AZ; San Diego County, CA; Orange County, (outside Los Angeles), CA, and Miami-Dade County, FL. Home prices up at least 10 percent in almost two-thirds of country Median single-family home prices in the third quarter of 2021 are up by at least 10 percent from the third quarter of 2020 in 381, or 67 percent, of the 572 counties included in the report. Data was analyzed for counties with a population of at least 100,000 and at least 50 single-family home and condo sales in the third quarter of 2021. Among the 43 counties with a population of at least 1 million, the biggest year-over-year gains in median prices during the third quarter of 2021 are in Middlesex County (outside Boston), MA (up 32 percent); Maricopa County (Phoenix), AZ (up 24 percent); Travis County (Austin), TX (up 23 percent); Hillsborough County (Tampa), FL (up 22 percent) and Clark County (Las Vegas), NV (up 22 percent). Counties with a population of at least 1 million that have the smallest year-over-year median-price increases in the third quarter of 2021 are New York County (Manhattan), NY (up less than 1 percent); Fairfax County, VA (outside Washington, DC) (up 5 percent); Santa Clara County (San Jose), CA (up 6 percent); Suffolk County, NY (eastern Long Island) (up 7 percent) and Dallas County, TX (up 7 percent). Price gains outpace wage growth in three-quarters of markets Home-price appreciation is greater than weekly wage growth in the third quarter of 2021 in 428 of the 572 counties analyzed in the report (75 percent), with the largest including Los Angeles County, CA; Harris County (Houston), TX; Maricopa County
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