U.S. Home Price Appreciation Rates Softer Again (Slightly), Radian Home Price Index Reveals

In November, home prices across the United States rose at a slower pace than the month prior (October 2021) but continued to appreciate at higher than 2021 average monthly rates. According to the Radian Home Price Index (HPI) released by Red Bell Real Estate, LLC, a Radian Group Inc. company (NYSE: RDN), home prices nationally rose from the end of October 2021 to the end of November 2021 at an annualized rate of +17.1 percent. The company believes the Radian HPI is the most comprehensive and timely measure of U.S. housing market prices and conditions. The Radian HPI also rose +13.4 percent year-over-year (November 2020 to November 2021). Through the first eleven months of 2021, the average monthly annualized increase was also +12.8 percent with each of the last five months reporting above average appreciation. Nonetheless, the last two months have been slower than the prior months, falling from this year’s peak (September) of 17.6 percent. The Radian HPI is calculated based on the estimated values of more than 70 million unique addresses each month, covering all single-family property types and geographies. “Typically, going into the winter months the U.S. housing market sees lower sales and less upward pressure on price appreciation, however 2021 has not turned out to be typical. Going into the final months of 2021, we continue to see substantially higher counts of sales transactions than normal, paired with record low seasonal counts of listings,” noted Steve Gaenzler, SVP of Product, Data and Analytics. “2021 appears to be on the precipice of breaking a number of real estate records and while we are unsure what the potential for higher mortgage rates will bring in 2022, the imbalances in demand and supply have exacerbated price movements this year as opposed to normalizing them. We will watch the recent declines in appreciation rates in many areas closely, looking for non-seasonal patterns that may signal winds of change.” NATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS Median home price in the U.S. rose above $300,000 for the first time ever Home prices rose an annualized +17.6 percent over the last three months Nationally, the median estimated price for single-family and condominium homes eclipsed the $300,000 mark for the first time ever, rising to $303,012, representing a more than $34,000 increase so far in 2021. Across the U.S., home prices nationally rose +16.4 percent over the last six months, a strong increase over the prior six-month appreciation rate of +9.6 percent. Ongoing imbalances between housing supply and demand continue to provide solid support for home prices. On the demand side, while November 2021 recorded the lowest level of monthly home sale transactions since March 2021, it still represented the second most sold homes in any November on record. In November of 2021, home sales were only -4 percent lower than the all-time record notched last year (November 2020) even though active listings were more than -15 percent below the prior year. The supply of homes in November, as measured by the count of listings of homes for sale, was the 4th lowest month over the last ten (10) years. The very strong absorption of homes helped keep days on market to sell a home near all-time lows. Last month, the average home sold was on the market for only 73 days, one day longer than October and 5 days above the all-time low recorded earlier this year. Homes listed but not sold averaged 100 days on market, an increase of 6 days from the prior month. REGIONAL DATA AND TRENDS Home price appreciation lower in all but one Region Over the last twelve months, South is the strongest U.S. Regional gainer In November, all but one U.S. region reported slower price appreciation in residential markets. While the slowdowns were generally modest (ranging from a decline of 11 to 60 basis points lower), the Northeast reported a one-month (annualized) appreciation rate of +16.1 percent, 158 basis points lower than the one-month rate of +17.7 percent recoded last month. The South has been the best performing region for each of the past 5 months and recorded month-over-month appreciation rates above +20 percent for the third consecutive month. In November, twenty-nine (29) of the 51 U.S. states and the District of Columbia reported slower appreciation as compared to the prior month, while the remaining 22 accelerated. Florida, Georgia and Texas were the largest states to record higher appreciation rates in the month, while California, New York, and Illinois were the most populous states recording slower appreciation. While momentum of home price appreciation differs by state, with month-over-month appreciation rates ranging from +3.5 (RI) to +28 (GA) percent, all states are still recording positive home price appreciation. With the exception of Florida and Georgia, smaller states with larger populations of lower-priced homes, more open space, and fewer large metros areas are appreciating the most as compared to states with the largest cities. METROPOLITAN AREA DATA AND TRENDS Large metro area appreciation rates falling 2021 is on pace to be one of the most active on record Across the 20-largest metro areas of the U.S, the second half of the year has recorded more pronounced deterioration of appreciation rates than states or regions, indicating more recent softness in large urban versus smaller urban or rural areas. The average appreciation rate of the largest metros so far in 2021 has been +9.4 percent compared to the average appreciation rate last month of +8.8 percent. When compared to the peak monthly appreciation rate of 2021 by metro, November 2021 is only 62% of the peak, on average. Additionally, for 13 of the top 20 metros, November was the 3rd consecutive month of slower appreciation rates. While a pattern of slower home price appreciation in the winter months is common, we will continue to monitor for non-seasonal changes in metro performance. ABOUT THE RADIAN HPI Red Bell Real Estate, LLC, a subsidiary of Radian Group Inc., provides national and regional indices for download at www.radian.com/hpi, along with information on how to access the full library

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Adding space and remodeling the bathroom are homeowners’ top renovation resolutions for 2022

Zillow teamed up with Realm to share what projects will be most popular with homeowners in 2022 A new year means new resolutions, and at the top of the list for many will be making their home more functional. Zillow Research finds that 72% of homeowners will consider at least one home improvement project in the coming year, which makes sense, considering most people spent more time than ever in their homes the past 22 months. Partnering with Realm, Zillow is now sharing which renovations homeowners are most likely to make in 2022, and which ones will add the most value when it comes time to sell. Bathroom remodels are the most popular project to tackle; Zillow found that more than half of homeowners surveyed would consider a bathroom renovation next year. Buyers also are willing to pay a premium for spa-inspired bathroom features, such as “curbless” showers (3.6% price premium), heated floors (3.2%) and free-standing bathtubs (2.6%). “Most homeowners say they plan to stay in their current home for at least the next three years. And while uncertainty, pandemic precautions, and affordability concerns keep many homeowners in place, most are willing to consider improving their current home,” says Manny Garcia, a population scientist at Zillow. “From adding a backyard cottage to improving a bathroom or renovating the kitchen, most homeowners say they would consider at least one home improvement.” Kitchen remodels are also widely popular, with Zillow’s research showing 46% of homeowners would consider that project in 2022. Luxury kitchen amenities were must-haves over the past year, and that will likely continue as people spend more time cooking and eating at home. “Thousands of homeowners across the U.S. use Realm as they plan the projects they’re going to do next based on their budget, local regulations, weather, trends, and return on investment,” says Realm’s Founder and CEO Liz Young. “The most popular projects continue to be interior renovations, such as kitchen and bathroom remodels, but outside of those, we see a lot of variance from city to city.” While kitchen and bathroom renovations are top five planned projects in all cities across the U.S., other projects appear in the top five for only some cities: landscaping (97.1% of cities), first floor addition (51.4%), deck (34.3%), backyard home (17.1% of cities), exterior and interior painting (both at 17.1%), pool (11.4%). As consumers tackle these projects, they should consider long-term implications, such as prioritizing projects that will also yield a strong return on investment when it comes time to sell. Data from Realm, a centralized source of actionable home data and insights, finds that the projects with the highest ROI potential are low-cost ways to add living space, like conversions or additions in which the original structure isn’t impacted. Building a backyard cottage, finishing a basement, converting a garage, finishing an attic, and remodeling a kitchen are projects that have the highest return on investment potential. Creating more liveable space is a consideration for many homeowners, Zillow survey data shows. Projects that are highest on their wish lists for 2022 include adding or improving an office space (31%), finishing a basement or attic (23%), and adding an accessory dwelling unit or guest house (21%). About RealmRealm makes anyone a home expert, by providing them with the data they need to navigate homeownership with confidence. Over 30,000 homeowners have used Realm to plan their 2022 projects and their free insights are available in all 50 states, and help homeowners answer questions such as: How much should I spend on a kitchen renovation? Am I allowed to build an addition? When will I need to replace my roof? Make your free account at Realmhome.com.  About Zillow Group:Zillow Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: Z and ZG) is reimagining real estate to make it easier to unlock life’s next chapter. As the most visited real estate website in the United States, Zillow® and its affiliates offer customers an on-demand experience for selling, buying, renting or financing with transparency and ease. Zillow Group’s affiliates and subsidiaries include Zillow®, Zillow Offers®, Zillow Premier Agent®, Zillow Home Loans™, Zillow Closing Services™, Zillow Homes, Inc., Trulia®, Out East®, ShowingTime®, Bridge Interactive®, dotloop®, StreetEasy® and HotPads®. Zillow Home Loans, LLC is an Equal Housing Lender, NMLS #10287 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org).

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Word of the Day: Circumlocution

[sir-kəm-lo-KYOO-shən] Part of speech: noun Origin: Latin, 16th century Definitions: 1. Using more words than necessary to express a thought 2. An indirect expression Examples of Circumlocution in a sentence “His drawn-out speech was not only boring, but it was pure circumlocution and made no real points.” “His attempt at circumlocution didn’t fool his mother when she asked where he was last night.” About Circumlocution “Circumlocution” is a fairly direct translation from Latin: “circum” = around, and “locution” = talk. When a speaker is in the midst of circumlocution they’re circling around their point and using too many words. This could be a sign of deception or just a symptom of not knowing when to be quiet. Did you Know? Maybe you’re nervous, or maybe you’re trying to avoid giving a direct answer. Whatever the reason, if you’re “beating around the bush” you’re practicing circumlocution. Using that phrase would also be circumlocution — why use an idiom when there’s a perfectly good word?

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Redfin Survey: Three-Quarters of Homebuyers & Sellers Report Changing Plans Due to Inflation

Roughly 1 in 10 respondents are cancelling their plans to buy or sell a home because of inflation. 29% are delaying homebuying plans due to inflation, while 24% are accelerating their plans Seventy-three percent of homebuyers and sellers say inflation is influencing their future buying or selling plans, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. Responding to a recent Redfin-commissioned survey of Americans who are planning to buy or sell a home in the next 12 months, 29% of respondents said they’re delaying homebuying plans due to inflation. Twenty-four percent of respondents are moving up their homebuying plans and 11% are canceling plans altogether.  Meanwhile, 10% of respondents said inflation is causing them to move up their home selling plans, 7% are delaying their selling plans and 3% are canceling.  “The way Americans interpret news about rising prices can have a variety of effects on their financial decisions, including homebuying,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “Some people may delay buying because they’re worried that with prices rising on everything from food to fuel, now is not the right time to make a huge purchase. But others might move faster to find a house because they’re worried home prices and rent prices will increase even more, and they want to lock in a fixed payment.” The survey results come amid reports that inflation is at its highest level in nearly 40 years, with consumer prices jumping 6.8% in November from a year earlier. Increasing prices for gas and other energy sources are driving the inflation surge.  Seventy-three percent of survey respondents said rising gas prices are impacting decisions about their homebuying plans or their commute. Thirty-five percent said they plan to drive less or drive a more efficient vehicle because of rising gas prices, while 25% plan to shorten their commutes. Twenty-one percent said they plan to buy a cheaper home. “Different homebuyers react to high fuel prices in different ways, depending on their circumstances,” said Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr. “Some people will pay a premium to shorten their commute, while others will opt for a more affordable home to make up for expensive gas or a new – but more fuel-efficient – vehicle.” Three-quarters of respondents said the rising cost of home energy is impacting their homebuying or selling plans. Specifically, 36% of respondents said they plan to add energy-saving features to their home, 33% plan to move to a more energy-efficient home and 15% plan to move to a smaller home.  To read the full report, including charts and graphs, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/inflation-homebuying-survey/   About Redfin Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, instant home-buying (iBuying), rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We sell homes for more money and charge half the fee. We also run the country’s #1 real-estate brokerage site. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can take an instant cash offer from Redfin or have our renovations crew fix up their home to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we’ve saved customers more than $1 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 6,000 people. For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin’s press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin’s press center, click here.

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Redfin Reports Home Prices Rise to All-Time High

The median home sale price rose 15% year over year as the number of homes for sale fell to an all-time low The median home sale price rose 15% year over year to an all-time high of $360,500 during the four-week period ending December 19, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. Pending sales rose 0.1%, the smallest year-over-year increase since June 2020. Sales activity is constricted by supply, not demand; the number of homes for sale fell 26% to an all-time low. “As the number of homes for sale drops to a new all-time low every week, homebuyers have a sense that the well is running dry,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “Fewer homes are selling because of a lack of supply, while demand remains strong. That’s why home prices continue to climb higher and higher. But once mortgage rates increase in 2022, I expect the rate of price growth to slow down significantly.” Key housing market takeaways for 400+ U.S. metro areas: Unless otherwise noted, this data covers the four-week period ending December 19. Redfin’s housing market data goes back through 2012. The median asking price of newly listed homes increased 14% year over year to $347,475, up 29% from 2019. Pending home sales were up 0.1% year over year, and up 46% compared to the same period in 2019. New listings of homes for sale were down 9% from a year earlier, but up 11% from 2019, marking the largest two-year increase since September. Active listings (the number of homes listed for sale at any point during the period) fell 26% year over year to an all-time low, and were down 45% from 2019. The share of homes that went under contract that had an accepted offer within the first two weeks on the market was 42%, above the 36% rate of a year earlier and the 25% rate in 2019. 31% of homes that went under contract had an accepted offer within one week of hitting the market, up from 26% during the same period a year earlier and 16% in 2019. Homes that sold were on the market for a median of 26 days, down from 32 days a year earlier and 48 days in 2019. 43% of homes sold above list price, up from 34% a year earlier and 20% in 2019. On average, 3% of homes for sale each week had a price drop, up 0.5 percentage points from the same time in 2020 and up 0.3 points from this time in 2019. The average sale-to-list price ratio, which measures how close homes are selling to their asking prices, was 100.4%. In other words, the average home sold for 0.4% above its asking price. Other leading indicators of homebuying activity: Mortgage purchase applications decreased 3% week over week (seasonally adjusted) during the week ending December 17. For the week ending December 16, 30-year mortgage rates inched up to 3.12%. Touring activity through December 19 was 2 percentage points behind 2019 and 9 points behind 2020 relative to the first week of January according to home tour technology company ShowingTime. The Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index fell 4% during the week ending December 19 and was up 14% from a year earlier. To view the full report, including charts and methodology, please visit:https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-home-prices-record-december/ About RedfinRedfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, instant home-buying (iBuying), rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We sell homes for more money and charge half the fee. We also run the country’s #1 real-estate brokerage site. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can take an instant cash offer from Redfin or have our renovations crew fix up their home to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we’ve saved customers more than $1 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 6,000 people.

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REX JOINS TECH FIRMS URGING COMMERCE SECRETARY NOT TO PROTECT THE GOLIATHS

As momentum grows for competition in real estate, REX stands shoulder-to-shoulder with other pro-consumer innovators with letter to Secretary Raimondo. REX joined pro-consumer tech companies in urging Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo to keep digital markets accessible to consumers and open to competition. Collaborating with REX on the letter, which was first reported in Politico’s Morning Tech, are numerous innovative platforms across the digital economy, including Yelp, Genius, Felt, Patreon, Beeper, OfferFit, and News Media Alliance.   “The U.S. must lead on housing access and affordability. Unfortunately, the real estate industry is doing all that it can to prevent consumers from accessing information online about homes for sale at competitive prices. REX stands for real estate consumers and delivers tech solutions to work around legacy real estate brokers that force consumers to pay 2 to 3 times the amount in commission than their European counterparts,” said REX Co-Founder and President Lynley Sides. The tech letter on competition comes on the heels of testimony last week at a United States Senate hearing on consumer protection, where real estate was a focal point. Notre Dame Law Professor Roger Alford testified that “the residential real estate market is dominated by a consortium of real estate cooperatives that enforce a series of mandatory rules that keep prices high and reduce innovation.” Alford singled out REX as a broker delivering consumer-friendly commissions to homebuyers and sellers. During the same hearing, Diana Moss, President of the American Antitrust Institute, mentioned several companies, including Zillow, as having “all the same features as the big business digital ecosystems,” such as Google and Facebook. “We worry,” Moss continued, “about these companies because they are really rife with what we call market failures and economics.” A full video of the Senate hearing can be found here. “Competition is the one thing both sides in Washington can agree on. During a U.S. Senate hearing into the practices of big tech, the President of the American Antitrust Institute testified that policymakers should be concerned not just about Google and Facebook, but also Zillow. As we look towards 2022, it appears lawmakers and regulators will continue to focus on competition, access to digital markets, and innovation. Real estate consumers will benefit from all of this,” said Michel Toth, Senior Vice President and General Counsel for REX. The tech companies who signed the letter have asked to meet with Secretary Raimondo to discuss competition issue during the week of January 10, 2022. For media inquiries: contact Colin Maynard at colin@colinmaynard.net. ABOUT REX REX, headquartered in Austin, Texas, is a real estate tech company resetting the traditional real estate market nationwide. When buying a REX home – or any home on the market in the U.S. purchased through REX – consumers have the peace of mind knowing they are finding residential real estate for less and saving time thanks to our groundbreaking technology. REX has emerged as the national leader in real estate reform since founding the company in 2016 with the goal of eliminating fees, growing the U.S. real estate market, and saving Americans billions of dollars each year. REX also works as a partner in the global fight against housing insecurity. Learn more about REX’s online platform, integrated services, and business model at rexhomes.com. Also visit newsroom.rexhomes.com for the latest press releases, podcasts, market analysis, digital real estate data, and information about the company and leadership team. 

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