Steady (& Silver): Tampa’s 2020 Growth Patterns
The city is poised for a prolonged economic expansion. As 2019 ended, several Florida cities hit the headlines for incredibly low unemployment. Tampa, Florida, was near the top of the list. With a 2.2% increase in jobs and just 2.7% unemployment, the city sometimes called “The Big Guava” is poised for a prolonged economic expansion in 2020 and 2021. This is good news for real estate investors in all sectors of the industry. The area is rife with expansion, development and a strong demand for both new and existing housing. “Not only does the Greater Tampa Bay area have a population of nearly 3.1 million, but around a third of those people are renters,” observed Jonathan Waysman, a managing partner at Tampa-based Momentum Group. The boutique investment firm specializes in turnkey real estate investments, off-market discounted properties and real estate investment services in the Greater Tampa Bay market. “When you combine our seven-year population growth of 10.85% (105% faster than the national average) with our job growth, which is about 18% faster than the national average, we believe you have an extremely strong, sustainable market for rentals going into the New Year,” Waysman said. Thanks to its prime location in Florida, which has had one of the lowest tax burdens in the country for decades, Tampa is particularly attractive to some of the most influential populations in today’s housing market: young professionals and baby boomers. The former move to Tampa to take advantage of relatively affordable housing options and the expanding local economy, while the latter view the area as a prime location in which to spend their retirement. “Tampa is one of the most affordable, large markets in the country right now,” said Dennis Cisterna, CEO of Guardian Residential, a single-family residential investment fund, and CIO of Lafayette Communities, another SFR investment platform focused exclusively on build-to-rent opportunities. “We implement several different strategies within the Tampa market right now. We buy build-to-rent communities of either single-family homes or townhomes, then operate them the same way you would an apartment community. Tampa fits the bill for us because it is still a relatively affordable market, has strong rental demand and has showed good employment growth.” Adriana Pop, senior associate editor at Yardi Matrix and author of the data firm’s fall 2019 Tampa market report, agreed. “Multifamily demand continues strong in Tampa, boosted by above-trend population and employment gains,” she wrote in third quarter 2019. Pop cited the area’s 20,000 “high-skill, high-wage STEM positions” for much of the market’s stability and ongoing expansion. Those positions accounted for roughly a third of all job openings in Tampa over the past year. Plenty of Investment Potential Remains Although investor activity has been strong in the Tampa area and there have been local concerns about housing affordability in 2020, new development trends in the area support continued economic expansion and associated population growth. Pop cited “a combination of below-average rents and steady economic growth” for “luring investors to Tampa,” but predicted housing demand and the inventory intended to meet it would continue to grow in the New Year. “Multifamily sales reached $2.9 billion in the first 10 months of 2019, surpassing last year’s cycle peak of $2.6 billion. Developers have also been active, delivering 5,000 units, while another 7,900 are under construction,” she said. Waysman cited the I4 corridor in Polk County as another area where investors can still gain a foothold in Tampa’s ongoing growth (see sidebar below). “Polk County and the Lakeland-Winter Haven area, both located in the vast space between Tampa Bay and Orlando, are becoming more and more appealing to new businesses, large companies and new residents,” he said. “Big companies are taking advantage of the quickly merging areas that seem to be on track to become one massive metropolis.” The Lakeland-Winter Haven area’s population rose by more than 4% in 2018 and appears on track to repeat that growth in 2019, according to Momentum Group data. “Polk County itself has seen a 10.6% growth in population since the last census, compared to 4.7% nationwide and 9.6% statewide,” Waysman said. “The I4 corridor benefits from proximity to Orlando without the costs that inevitably come with being located directly in that city and, of course, from proximity to the opportunities in Tampa.” For investors interested in short-term rentals, Tampa offers plenty of opportunity as well. Mashvisor’s Heba Baker noted that Tampa represents the ideal market for investors considering Airbnb and other short-term rental platforms because of the attractive climate, relative affordability, strong rental market and lack of short-term rental regulations so far. “Florida has banned local governments and municipalities from passing laws that prohibit short-term rentals, [and] so far, there have been no city-level or county-level ordinances passed,” Baker said. Thanks to state-level licensing requirements and an agreement between Airbnb and Hillsborough County that leverages tourist taxes to support the local economy, Hillsborough, for which Tampa is the county seat, brought in more than $673 million in tourist development revenue in 2018. When the final 2019 numbers are in, last year appears likely to easily surpass 2018’s milestones, and that revenue contributes to Tampa’s presence on multiple “best places to buy a vacation home” lists. Emerging Issues with Housing Affordability Not surprisingly, Tampa’s economic growth and associated population expansion are creating some potential housing affordability issues for 2020 and beyond. However, Waysman said, unlike most cities of its size, Tampa has room to grow and its population can rent or buy in desirable locations. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) agreed, pegging the Tampa market as one of 10 U.S. housing markets it expects to “outperform over the next three to five years” thanks to domestic migration, housing affordability for new residents, consistent job growth compared to the national average, population, age, attractiveness for retirees and home-price appreciation. Marco Santarelli, founder and president of Norada Real Estate Investments, noted that the sale-to-list price ratio in Tampa hovered just over 98% in 2019, with median list prices in the area trending
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