NORTHEASTERN HOUSING MARKETS REMAIN MOST AT RISK OF ECONOMIC IMPACT FROM CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC
ATTOM Data Solutions released its third-quarter 2020 Special Report spotlighting county-level housing markets around the United States that are vulnerable to the impact of the Coronavirus pandemic. The report shows that pockets of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions were most at risk in the third quarter—with clusters in the New York City, Baltimore, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C. areas—while the West and now Midwest are less vulnerable. The report reveals that Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware had 32 of the 50 counties most vulnerable to the economic impact of the pandemic in the third quarter. They included five suburban counties in the New York City metropolitan area, four around Washington, D.C., four around Philadelphia, PA, four around Baltimore, MD, and seven of Connecticut’s eight counties. The only four western counties among the top 50 were in northern California and Hawaii, while Illinois had the only six in the Midwest. Another eight were loosely scattered across five southern states—Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, Texas, and Virginia. Third quarter trends generally continued from those found in the first and second quarters of 2020, but with different concentrations around several major metropolitan areas. The number of counties among the top 50 most at-risk was down from 11 to five in the New York City area, and from eight to three in the Chicago, IL, area, but up from two to four in the Baltimore region. Markets are considered more or less at risk based on the percentage of homes currently facing possible foreclosure, the portion of homes with mortgage balances that exceed the estimated property value, and the percentage of local wages required to pay for major home ownership expenses. The conclusions are drawn from an analysis of the most recent home affordability index, equity and foreclosure reports prepared by ATTOM. Rankings are based on a combination of those three categories in 487 counties around the United States with sufficient data to analyze. Counties were ranked in each category, from lowest to highest, with the overall conclusion based on a combination of the three ranks. The findings come as the national housing market has largely staved off the effect of the virus pandemic. While home values have dipped in some areas of the nation, counties generally have seen prices rise 7 percent to 15 percent since the third quarter of 2019. But the market remains exposed due to high unemployment and other damage that has spread through the United States economy as the virus has surged throughout the country this year. “The U.S. housing market continues to show remarkable resilience during a time of widespread economic trouble and high unemployment stemming from the virus pandemic. But amid continued price gains, pockets around the country face greater risk of a fall, especially in and around the Northeast,” said Todd Teta, chief product officer with ATTOM Data Solutions. “There is much uncertainty ahead, especially if another virus wave hits. We will continue to closely monitor home prices and sale patterns to see if, how and where the pandemic starts rattling local markets.” Most vulnerable counties clustered around New York City; Baltimore; Philadelphia; Washington, D.C. and Chicago. Twenty of the 50 U.S. counties most at-risk in the third quarter of 2020 from housing-market troubles connected to the pandemic (among the 487 counties with sufficient data) were in the metropolitan statistical areas around New York, NY; Philadelphia, PA; Baltimore, MD; Washington, D.C., and Chicago, IL. They included five in the New York City suburbs (Bergen, Essex, Passaic and Sussex counties in New Jersey, along with Orange County, NY) and four around Philadelphia (Burlington, Camden and Gloucester counties in New Jersey, plus Bucks County, PA). Another four counties found most at risk are in the Baltimore metro area: Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Carroll, and Howard counties. The three around Chicago are Lake, McHenry, and Will counties. Seven of Connecticut’s eight counties also are in the top 50, including Fairfield, Litchfield, Middlesex, New Haven, New London, Tolland, and Windham counties. The only western counties among the top 50 most at risk from problems connected to the Coronavirus outbreak in the third quarter of 2020 were Humboldt County (Eureka), CA; Butte County (Chico), CA; Shasta County (Redding), CA, and Hawaii County, HI. Florida also had three counties in the top 50: Charlotte County (outside Fort Myers), Flagler County (outside Daytona Beach) and Highlands County (Sebring). Higher levels of unaffordable housing, underwater mortgages and foreclosure activity in most-at-risk counties. Major home ownership costs (mortgage, property taxes and insurance) consumed more than 30 percent of average local wages in 35 of the 50 counties that were most vulnerable to market problems connected to the virus pandemic in the third quarter of 2020. The highest percentages were in Bergen County, NJ (outside New York City) (51 percent of the average local wage required for major ownership costs); Passaic County, NJ (outside New York City) (50 percent); Comal County, TX (outside San Antonio) (48 percent); Carroll County, MD (outside Baltimore) (46 percent); and Hawaii County, HI (46 percent). Among all counties in the report, major expenses on the median-priced home typically consumed 32 percent of the average local wage. At least 15 percent of mortgages were underwater in the second quarter of 2020 (the latest data available on owners owing more than their properties are worth) in 37 of the 50 most at-risk counties. Nationwide, 13 percent of mortgages fell into that category. Those with the highest underwater rates were Cumberland County (Vineland), NJ (34 percent); Saint Clair County, IL (outside St. Louis, MO) (33 percent); Lackawanna County (Scranton), PA (31 percent); Monroe County, PA (outside Wilkes-Barre) (30 percent) and Madison County, IL (outside St. Louis, MO) (29 percent). More than one in 2,500 residential properties faced a foreclosure action in the second quarter of 2020 (the latest available data) in 36 of the 50 most at-risk counties. Nationwide, about one in 4,449 homes were in that position. (Foreclosure actions have dropped about 80 percent this year amid a foreclosure moratorium on
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